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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    Couple more: 17 y.o Jesus Toledo: 5 G, 4 GS, 3-0, 20.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.919 WHIP, 14 H, 5 BB, 15 K. 17 y.o Michael Montero (a future star, heard it here first) : 5 G, 5 GS, 3-1, 23 IP, 2.35 ERA, 0.870 WHIP, 17 H, 3 BB, 21 K.
  2. Thrylos
    18 y.o. Estamy Urina is hitting .387/.438/.581 in 73 PAs, 17 y.o. Wander Valdez .328/.437/.569 in 71 PAs, 19 y.o. Ruben Santana .391/.453/.500 in 53 PA and also 19 y.o Yeltsin Encarnancion .326/.453/.488 in 53 PA. The DSL Twins played 23 games last month and they do deserve some recognition as members of the Twins' organization
  3. Thrylos
    Few more MiLB re-assignments and I think this catches up for the month: Chattanooga releases 3B Dan Gamache, returns Le Blanc to the Miracle Miracle releases 2B Brad Strong IF Andre Jernigan promoted to the Kernels from E-Twins LHP Taylor Clemensia and RHP Carlos Suniaga went from E-town to the GCL
  4. Thrylos
    And then back to Chattanooga couple days ago
  5. Thrylos
    I'd swear there was a MiLB transactions post that for some reason I cannot find, so I am posting this here: The Twins signed 24 year old MiLB FA LHP Anthony Marzi, formerly of the Independent Atlantic League New Britain Bees and assigned his to the Kernels who sent IF Ariel Montesino to the E-Twins
  6. Thrylos
    Good stuff. One thing: Tonkin has not been "very good" in AAA. His problem has always been that he cannot get lefties out. In his MLB career lefties have been hitting .317/.382/.649 off Tonkin (and righties .246/.319/.346). I don't have the full slash against him in Rochester this season, but LHBs BA against him is .333 (vs. .128 against RHBs) and his WHIP against LHB is 2.33 (vs. 0.75 vs RHBs.) Same old ROOGIE. If he cannot get AAA LHBs out, he does not belong to AAA, much more to the majors.
  7. Thrylos
    There is data. Here comparing the most changed numbers between 2016 and 2017: 2016: LOB: 78.8%, HR/FB: 4.5%, BB%: 3.8%, K-BB: 13.4%, GB/FB: 1.6, xFIP: 3.87, ERA: 1.76 2017: LOB: 55.1%, HR/FB: 11.4%, BB%: 12.1%, K-BB%: 3.5%, GB/FB: 1.1, xFIP: 5.53, ERA: 6.53 He has been a pitch to contact guy who induces ground balls and strikes out about 6-7 per nine. This season: He walks 4x as many batters as he did last season, induces about 50% more fly balls that he did last season, and those fly balls becoming HRs at a rate triple of last season. Add the fact that only about half of the runners on base are stranded, and that explains the 4x different in earned runs. Plus being superlucky with LOB and HR/FB in 2016. that 55.4 LOB% should regress to 70% that would make his ERA closer to his xFIP, but he is walking too many and not getting enough ground outs. If you look at his fangraphs' pitch values, both his FB and CU are much worse this season. His slider is fine, so if he throws more of that than curves and improves his fastball he might improve. On the other hand, he just had his 37th birthday. I'd rather see what Bard or Curtiss can do...
  8. Thrylos
    You can add Rob Delaney to the mix of low velocity crazy minor league numbers who did nothing in the majors because were never given the opportunity players. His numbers were more ridiculous than Slama's. In 2007 and 2008 he had video game numbers from Beloit to Fort Myers to New Britain. ERA averaging around 1, WHIP at 0.850 and more than 10 K/9...
  9. Thrylos
    Fun stuff. A couple of (unrelated) things: a. Is that peak velocity or average velocity. If it is the latter, does that count cruising into third from first in a double while the third base coach pulled the stop sign? b. To put things into perspective: The fastest man in baseball runs at 30.1 ft/sec. Flo Jo, who may rest in peace, ran her best 100m at 31.5 ft/sec and would had kicked both Hamilton's and Buxton's rear end in a foot race. Bolt's best 100m is at 34.4 ft/sec, which turns Buxton into Vargas by comparison. That 30 ft/sec translates to 11 second times for the 100 yards dash, which likely will not win a High School 100m race in most places. This seems about right, since Buxton's 60 yard dash numbers in High School was 6.57 (27.4 ft/sec).
  10. Thrylos
    I think that for the Twins to content, this pen needs: a. Two arms better than Kintzler, hopefully one from each side who can strike out about a hitter an inning (only Duffey has that K/9 in the pen, btw) b. The Killer Bees (Belisle, Breslow, Boshers) to go away so Molitor cannot use them in high leverage situations like yesterday. Unfortunately I don't think that anyone listed, maybe with the exception of Neshek, might fit the bit. If Busenitz and/or Hildenberger get there this season, it will be a nice surprise, but the Twins need more. Who else might be available: The duo of rentals righty Addison Reed (2.82 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 9.2 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 1.148 WHIP) and lefty Jerry Blevins (2.45 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 13 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.169 WHIP) from the Mets, would definitely fit the bill. Braves' 34 y.o. RHP Jim Johnson (3.86 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.041 WHIP) is signed through 2018 for $5M/yr Similar situation with the A's 36 year old righty Ryan Madson (2.45 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 8.6 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.989 WHIP) who is signed thought 2018 for $7.7M/yr Speaking of the A's, 30 year old lefty Sean Doolittle (1.98 ERA, 2.04 FIP, 14.5 K/9, 0.7 BB/9, 0.512 WHIP) might be a nice little acqusition. The video game like numbers are only in 15 games and came back from the DL (shoulder issues) recently. He is signed through 2018 for $4.3M and he has 2 options for 2019 and 2020 for $6M and $6.5M Lefty Brad Hand has 2 years of arbitration left, is 27 and has put good numbers with the Padres (2.59 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 11 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.008 WHIP), but will be more expensive than the others. On the other hand he could be a building block for the future. 30 y.o. righty journeyman Kirby Yates (2.28 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 13.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.268 WHIP), also of the Padres who is under team control for 3 years might be another addition. If I were the Twins, I'd go hard after Hand (other than Jay really the LHRP pipeline is dry; well R.Rosario, but...) and Reed, because I really think that at least one of Burdi, Chargois, Curtiss and Bard, and likely more than one, will be good long term, and the last 2 should get opportunities in 2017. This is how I see it. I just don't want to see them doing it half-rear ended again, like they did in 2015 and rather see them go for it, but being cautious of the future.
  11. Thrylos
    This is kind of a shocker to tell you the truth. Even though his velocity has not returned after him TJ surgery (was 96-97 now 91-93) he was very effective in both AA and AAA. 31% K% in AA is not spare change. Something must be going on...
  12. Thrylos
    Wimmers and JR Murphy (of .228/.305/.360 slash in AAA) are the 2 obvious choices for me...
  13. Thrylos
    a. What's wrong with Sano at 3B? What more does the guy need to do? b. Supposedly the issue with Lewis @ SS is his arm. This will make a move to 3B worse.
  14. Thrylos
    The guy looks pretty impressive, like he can play RB Vikings impressive, up close. Jax is a big wildcard for the Twins. He might be a waste of a $1M drafting bonus and not pitch an inning for them based on his personal dual career choices.
  15. Thrylos
    Re: Enlow. He is on his way to the Cities for his physical. The announcement of his signing will happen soon afterwards, likely this weekend. It is all agreed upon. Just the timing of the logistics is such that seems delayed...
  16. Thrylos
    Yeah, I have no problems with Gordon ahead of Lewis, because Lewis is really an unknown at this point. I have a problem with Gonzalves over Romero. One could probably argue that Romero has the highest ceiling on any player in the organization right now. Gordon had the season we were hoping he would have for 3 seasons now. I just don't see him stick at SS long term and I just hope that the Twins give him an OF mitt an have him play a corner position because there is need there. Kiriloff in the top 5, after surgery is a joke. I'd wait for the short season ball to start and the off-season to conclude before I do my ranking.
  17. Thrylos
    Gee is better than Heston and Wilk. That's who he will be replacing. Interesting tidbit that I have not seen being mentioned, but it is worthwhile: In Gee's best season in 2013 when he pitched about 200 innings for the Mets, he was teammate with LaTroy Hawkings.
  18. Thrylos
    Three facts make me think that his lease will be long: a. Grossman is a much worse defensive outfielder b. Rosario has better OPS (.771 vs .749 and .594) and OPS+ (103 vs. 99 and 59) than the other 2 outfielders, Kepler and Buxton. c. While there might be some helium for a CF replacement in AAA (Granite), there is no better corner OF than Rosario in the organization. And the cherry on top: Rosario is hot hitting .316/.379/.595 the last month and .351/.415/.703 the last two weeks. Makes zero sense to get rid of one of the Twins' hottest bats. And career stats (like that Gleeman tidbit) do not matter for someone who has not yet reached their prime. What Rosario is doing the past month matters way way more now and in the future than what he did 2 seasons ago with the Twins as a 23 year old.
  19. Thrylos
    Cannot agree more with those. Couple things: a. Just by looking at rosters, the Red Wings have only 2 active OFs and the Rock Cats Lookouts only 3. Pretty sure that this will not continue and more OFs will get there. b. There is room (and need) to get rid of older under performing players, starting with Tray Vavra who will be 26 this September and has a .432 OPS at A+. Yohan Pino, Paul Clemens, Matt Tracy, David Fischer, Jonny Drozd also fall in this category. 26 and 27 year olds have no business in high A. You either promote them if they are good, or say goodbye. They are in their primes and if they cannot deal with high A competition at this age, the spots better left for others to develop. c. The lack of catching depth in the organization is simply scary, esp at the higher levels. I suspect that they might move some catchers up just because of need as well. Similar to the OF situation, but worse, because it is more specialized position
  20. Thrylos
    And Santana, half an elbow ligament and/or another PED conviction away from ending his career at 34 years old is not a risk?
  21. Thrylos
    Here is the logic: you can be a seller and improve the team for both this season and the future. Example trade: Ervin Santana to the Yankees for Jordan Montgomery & Tyler Webb. The Yankees get veteran leadership and the Twins get a starter who can be as good as Santana and a lefty piece for their pen who will likely be their best lefty for a while. In other works, let them be buyers, but buyers of young, controllable, MLB-ready talent, giving as a return older veterans who will regress (Santana, Dozier, Santiago, Perkins, etc; of course given interest; on the other hand getting rid of dead weight for someone like a heartbeat is also a positive) supplemented with questionable prospects (eg. Kohl Stewart). I am not talking about getting A-level prospects in return...
  22. Thrylos
    The Cleveland and Houston series should put an end to the 2017 mirage. If you cannot keep up with and beat good teams at home, you are not going to go far in a post-season, even if you are lucky enough to make it there. So the Twins should be sellers, try to get a few prospects that will help them next year and beyond and try to close holes with more trades or free agency (Michael Pineda might look pretty good in Twins' pinstripes) during the off-season. This way, they can evaluate some of the kids as well...
  23. Thrylos
    Darn I was confused and thought that for some reason the Miracle was playing the Charlotte Knights (AAA WSux affiliate), until I saw the Stones Crab mention. Port Charlotte, not Charlotte
  24. Thrylos
    At least Chapman's gone... There is no reason that Bard and Curtiss are in AA, other than to get the Lookouts at the post-season. I hope they both get promoted after the MiLB ASB
  25. Thrylos
    Palacios (and some of the other guys mentioned here) will likely move to Fort Myers as soon as the short season leagues begin. Both Javier (who is on the E-town roster, btw) and Lewis cannot be in the same team in E-town, and, unless Lewis moves to CF, I expect one of them in CR. I just cannot see either at the GCL at this point, even though that's where they had Buxton start.
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