Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Thrylos

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,094

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    Vargas does not belong in this list. He would be a tremendous mistake. Nick Blackburn 2.0. But he is a groundball pitcher with a 87 mph FB who pitches to contact, which is what the Twins' like.
  2. Thrylos
    At some point today (starting with AJ Pettersen's) articles with current responses are not included in the "forums" discussion list on the right hand side. They do appear in the "Recent Articles" discussion list that, alas, is not included in the home page. Could be by design, but it is a PITA to track responses to articles this way...
  3. Thrylos
    It will take more than a Pelfrey contract. He is not returning from a Tommy John surgery. Hate to say it (because the price will be high), but his play in 2013 was not reflected by his 2-8 record and 6.20 ERA, but by his 3.58 xFIP. Add his more than 1 K/IP to his 93 mph average fastball, to his under 30 age and you got a guy who you (or someone) will want to sign for a 3-4 year contract. And I think that a 3/40 or 4/50 might be what it will take, including incentives. Look at what Lincicum got, and Johnson has fewer questions...
  4. Thrylos
    Unfortunately, the similarities of Vargas aka Baby Papi with Big Papi expand to the way the Twins are thinking of them. There was absolutely no reason for Vargas not to move to New Britain when Sano and Rosario did. At the all star break he was hitting .286/.364/.542 (.906 OPS, pretty close to Eddie Rosario's .903 with the Miracle) with 12 HR and 51 RBI. Instead the Twins signed 27 year old non-prospect Reynaldo Rodriguez to play first base for the Rock Cats. I just hope that history does not repeat itself here...
  5. Thrylos
    I of course did not know that Albers was going to pitch in the big leagues. And I think that Albers pitching in the bigs is a reflection of the mess the Twins were last season My point is: The Twins have had a whole bunch of replacement and few slightly better pitchers at the end of 2012. Like the above mentioned names. And then they signed a bunch of MiLB FAs. Let's get the elephant in the room out: The Twins were not going to compete last season (2013). Why sign Correia to a two year contract? Couldn't Pedro Hernandez or PJ Walters or Liam Hendriks or BJ Hermsen (all on the 40 man roster on opening day) handle those innings? Or why not throw a kid like Meyer out there, like the Cardinals did with Wacha? And whether someone pitches 5 or 6 innings, barring injury, is totally manager's choice. I know that this manager (and his pitching coach) likes to make lots of pitching moves and are not willing to let non-veterans pitch through trouble. (This is a different story.) So what if the Twins lost 103 instead of 96 games if Correia was not signed? In a rebuilding year.
  6. Thrylos
    This is what common sense might indicate. On the other hand, check out the Twins' SP HR/FB ratio. For several it is up in the 14-15 range, which is close to where his were in his bad years. This number should really be under 10. And, officially, the park factor of TF is 100 (league average) the last couple seasons.
  7. Thrylos
    Devil's advocate: this is the same division the Twins are playing. The Twins saw huge increase in hitters striking out; 1430 in 2013 from 1069 in 2012. Chicken or egg type of situation, but I don't think that these 2 things are unrelated...
  8. Thrylos
    I agree about them being down to early. However a gently reminder: In order for an average college graduate to match what Buxton made in one year, he/she has to work 100-120 years. For an average high school graduate (Buxton's education level), it will take 200-250 years of work So no wonder he is not worried about money... Perspective.
  9. Thrylos
    Jack, thanks. Nobody claimed it with words, but if you have a rotation like the 2012 Twins' rotation which a. was bad and b. lost its best piece to a trade, and its second best to free agency/retirement, one would assume that it was a part of the team that need fixing for the Twins to compete in 2013. And from the 2 MLB FAs signed, Correia was the one who was given the biggest contract, thus the "big FA signing". Unless, the intention was not for the Twins to compete in 2013, in which case there are a lot of AAAA guys in the system who would pitch innings with the same overall result for the team. The Twins had 2 clear choices after 2011 and 2012: a. doing everything to put a competitive (*) team out there in 2013 and beyond b. do a real rebuild looking forward to 2015-16 and not sing mediocre 30+ year olds who will not be on their primes in that future But instead they made moves that looks like they were made for the sake of just making moves and resulted to nothing better. This is where the issue is with most of the fans who are having issues with the front office moves last off-season. I just hope that something was learned there and this off-season is better. (*) where competitive = world series contender.
  10. Thrylos
    And even if they just wanted to "get through the year", BJ Hermsen, Liam Hendriks, PJ Walters, Samuel Deduno, Sairon Martis, Vance Worley, Andrew Albers, Scott Diamond, Pedro Hernandez, Kyle Gibson, Cole DeVries et al. are plenty enough to "get through the year" with pretty much the same results, without having to have a fifth starter in a good team (Correia) as your first or second starter in 2014 as well...
  11. Thrylos
    I actually like Worley. I've seen him play quite a bit with the Phillies and their AAA and AA team and last season he was not himself. He was hurt and so out of shape that it screwed up his mechanics. Add a .401 BABIP and a 15.5 HR/FB and... Next season will be his age 26 season so is about to enter his prime. Some food for thought: He is the same age as Kyle Gibson. Gibson's MLB 2013 was very similar to Worley's 2013 (actually Gibson's xFIP and SIERA were higher). If one is not willing to give up on Gibson based on that, he/she should not give up on Worley. He has to work his rear end out during the off-season though.
  12. Thrylos
    How many games will these teams win; enough to challenge Detroit for the division or get a wild-card spot? Will they move deep into the post-season? if the answer to the first one is no, I'd rather have them look for 2015 and beyond. Capuano will be 36 years old. He is on the decline phase. Even if the Twins decide (*) to not complete in 2014, they can sign younger FAs (like Hughes) who will be part of a potential future competitive team. A Capuano signing will be lots like the Correia signing. (*) Decide because the Twins have the $ to spend and be competitive: 2013 Revenue: $215 million; 2014 broadcasting $: $35 million = $250 million (promised) 52% of that is $130 million. Actual projected as is spend = $60 million (with arbitration awards). Net left to spend: $70 Million. $70 million plus most of this pen, plus Mauer, Arcia, Dozier and a few others as a core (and I don't even mind Willingham or Plouffe as platoon DH) can build a champion. But are the Twins willing to do it? Does this front office actually have a. the guts and b. the talent to do it? Not sure there...
  13. Thrylos
    I suspect that most of us did not like the fact that Correia was the big free agent signing on the way of fixing the Twins' pitching. For the record, I had an open mind about Correia and even thought that he might be successful. Correia is a good number four or five guy in a competing team. If he is your best pitcher, you will not compete. And if you are not going to complete, why bother signing people like Correia? So you can lose 96 instead of 106? This is what most of us disliked. Now if the Twins' Front Office thought that they will be a competitive team with Correia, Diamond and Worley anchoring the rotation, there is a problem. Mistakes happen, learn and move on. I am just not convinced that this team knows how to do this. Ryan is already talking about Deduno being penciled in for a spot in the 2014 rotation. I despise that thought
  14. Thrylos
    Interesting. And very interesting comments. Gotta love the reactionary reaction to the Twins taking 2 steps back: a. the Twins can do no wrong no matter what; need better food and more C&W acts at Target Field. And baseball in Minny is good. b. bring back the old school when Ryan was Merlin, that will solve the problem (and Smith sucked even though the Twins had better record with him as a GM than with Ryan, because he does not get the spinning of the ball) c. Scouts rock. Even though the Twins' MLB advance scouts kinda suck (see: results) d. 2011 was all Smith's fault. 2012 was Jerry's and Stelly's. 2013: not enough old scouts. Go get them. Now. Lazarus too. And Molitor. That will fix it e. FIP? what FIP? F IP. f. I got "access" now. I shalt not say anything bad about the Twins because my perceived access might be revoked.
  15. Thrylos
    Here is how the 52% (of the Twins' revenue going into payroll) should look like: 2013 Revenue: $215M plus that $25M = $240 M. 52% of that is $125 M. The Twins are in the hook for around $60 M (including arbitration $ for Duensing, Swarzak and Plouffe) this leaves Ryan $65 M to play with 65 not 15. Lots one can do with $65 Million in a year, but you got to commit that 52% of revenues to payroll. I am convinced that if the Twins spend that $ wisely, they could be contending in 2014. However, I am almost convinced that Ryan does not know how to do this.
  16. Thrylos
    I was talking preference of trading Dozier before Rosario. And I suspect that Rosario will not be enough for Bailey as well...
  17. Thrylos
    Yeah, but I think that this means that Dozier will be a better second baseman than Rosario. And I am not convinced of that yet, since I remember the year that Christian Guzman had in 2001. I'd rather trade Dozier high, if I had to... On the other hand, there are several prospects (like Kepler and Harrison and a bunch of RPs ) who would be good trade bait.
  18. Thrylos
    Unless the Twins get rid of Gardenhire and Anderson, the probability of getting Garza is zero. I would like to see the Twins get 3 FA SPs better than Gibson (Johnson, Haren and Hughes are my preferences), so Gibson and Correia can fill the last couple spots in the rotation and Correia will be warming a spot for Meyer. Add a decent veteran SS and another bat (1B?), sign a lefty to platoon with Plouffe at 3B, move Willingham to a full time DH role, sign an one-year Gomes type of guy to play LF and/or be a bench bat, move Doumit full time at the bench and you might have a competitive club. That will take about $40-50M. and take the Twins' payroll close to $100M, an amount they should be comfortable with, since their 2013 revenues were $215M reportedly. I just don't want to see half baked rosters again, but since Ryan is saying that Deduno pretty much won a spot in the rotation, I cannot hope for much. Detail but: De Vries can elect to be a 6-year MiLB FA in early November, so the Twins would have to re-sign him to be counted as part of the Twins.
  19. Thrylos
    That was after the trade. He was a class A (old agreement) free agent which meant that the Twins would get 2 picks if another team signed him...
  20. Thrylos
    I would not mind paying an Ace $15-20 M a year, but 3.30 ERA, 1.330 WHIP, 12-9 and only 188 IP do not an Ace make. Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, José Fernandez, Clayton Kershaw are Aces this guy is not.
  21. Thrylos
    The Ryan who gave up 2 supplementary draft picks to re-sign Capps, would have no problem giving up a second rounder. On the other hand, I agree, I don't see him going after this guy.
  22. Thrylos
    The accountability (or lack of) part has been discussed ad neauseum so I am not going to add. As far as retaining staff and promoting within goes here is my 2 cents (in baseball and in any business in general) : If you have a sustained success, makes sense to promote within because you have build a culture of success within your organization and you want to keep the staff who made you successful around and reward them, so you continue being successful (See: Cardinals, St. Louis) If, however, you have not have success for a while (in the Twins' case one can argue it is either 3 years or 22 years, but no one can argue that the Twins have been successful recently) it is time for a turn-around. And you cannot turn around a ball club or a business by keeping, promoting and rewarding the people who got you in that mess. So you go outside the organization and look for people who have proven success in turning around a business like yours or a baseball team. For the Twins not doing the latter, means one thing: They feel that they have been successful lately and this is a scary thought... (Of course they have been successful financially. Bloomberg has estimated the Twins' 2013 revenue to be $215M - click in the Twins logo icon to see the data in the link).
  23. Thrylos
    Reality Check: Buxton has not played above high A and currently is being over matched (.229/.280/.409 - SSS) at the AFL that is good AA level competition. Let's see how he will fare there and then we can talk about possible promotion in September. I think that he will spend the majority of the season in New Britain. Sano/Rosario/Meyer/May will all likely start in Rochester, unless for some reason they win a spot on the MLB roster in ST; and potential trades will affect that possibility. At least one of Pinto and Herrmann (depending on whether Doumit is with the team and what kind of ST they have) will make the Twins. The other will be in AAA. The top 2013 draftees will likely be in Beloit. Berrios might be an interesting case, but I think he will be in Fort Myers. Of course, the Twins can sign about 8-10 MiLB FAs and this whole thing might snowball down...
  24. Thrylos
    Wimmers is an interesting case. Hate to say that, but he does not belong in a prospect list anymore and I suspect that if he were a 10th round vs a 1st round draft pick he would not be in this list. Think of this: He is the same age as Liam Hendriks, has pretty much the same stuff (with less velocity), but (unlike Hendriks) he never got to pitch more than 41 innings in any professional level or have any substantial success. This does not a top 50 prospect make, given that he does not have a lights out pitch (like a 98 mph FB or a killer slider or change that can potentially be harvested in the future.) I did like his two seamer when I saw him at ST in 2012, but it is an 88-90 mph pitch. Make or break year for him and he really needs to be lights out in New Britain this season to make it.
  25. Thrylos
    Hughes would be a great signing. Got to mention that his BABIP in 2013 was .324 too... In 2013, a down season, Hughes had 7.5 K/9 and his FB averaged 92.4 mph. Since pitch F/X came out (2006) the Twins did not have any RHP who matched this combination. In his down season. The closest was Garza (2007, 7.3 K/9 and 94.2 mph FB). Only Santana 3 times (2004-6) and Liriano twice (2006, 2010) matched or exceeded those numbers for the Twins. Just another perspective...
×
×
  • Create New...