Thrylos

Looks like the Twins decide that Eric Fryer might be this replacement. At least part time Wonderful

I think this off-season we will see a lot of: The Twins are on ____________ (Fill in the blank with any Free Agent starting pitcher name)

They do have plenty of money, but they do have plenty of holes. A defense first less expensive catcher who will mentor Pinto is better than a bad defensive C (Salty is Doumit-like) They have around $60-65 million to spend. To make this team competitive they need 3 pitchers better than Correia, and at least a couple top of the rotation types in a competitive team, a corner OF (4) who can field (even in an one year contract), a platoon/def replacement third baseman (5) who can field before they need an offense minded catcher. If they get those 5 players, there will be no $ left for much... It's ok to be week with the bat and strong defensively down the middle (C, SS, CF) if the other positions are strong.

The top 2 do not make sense because a. of Pierzynski's relationships with his teammates when with the Twins and b. because Salty will be too expensive. Another catcher that makes sense for the Twins (speaking about framing) is Ryan Hanigan who the Reds are shopping because they just signed Pena to be their back up. He comes from a down season at the plate due to wrist injury, but he can be a great mentor for someone like Pinto and Herrmann. However, if the Twins get a C from outside the organization, Doumit is all but finished...

Here is the beef that I have with this: A leader is as good as the results of the people who he leads. And I am not talking Ws and Ls here. The last 3 seasons this team looked dead on the field. They looked like they did not believe that they will win some games. Dejected and uninterested in the game, looks here and there in the dugouts etc. I think that it is not Mauer's fault, it is Gardenhire's. But this team needs someone to lead them who cannot stand losing and makes sure than nobody in the team can stand losing. I don't know what is going on behind closed doors, but looking at the field and in the dugout, Mauer is not that kind of a leader. Compare the Twins' dugout last season and with the Boston dugout last season. Could you tell by the behavior of players in the dugout, on the field and in the pen and their interest in the games, that Boston won only 3 more games than the Twins the previous season in 2012? No. THIS is leadership and is one thing that the Twins had in the WS years and severely lack now.

The Twins should go after Kazmir very hard with a multi year offer. He is turning 30. His fastball is back to 2007 levels, which makes me think that the time off was crucial in healing and he is ok health-wise right now. Plus, the Twins do not have any top of the rotation lefty starter prospects above the Rookie leagues. They need a lefty in the rotation. And I'd rather not see Diamond pitch again... As far as this is concerned: Totall BABIP-driven, since his BABIP was .326. Normalize his WHIP for league average BABIP and you got 1.19. Not bad. Opportunity to buy low

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- Twins' beat reporter Mike Berardino broke the news late Tuesday night that the Minnesota Twins were looking closely (but not yet negotiating) at the possibility of signing Bronson Arroyo, the 37 year old free agent pitcher lately of the Cincinnati Reds. The thought that immediately came to my mind was that the last thing the Twins need is another (and older version of) Kevin Correia, given my premise that the Twins need 3 starting pitchers better than Correia to compete. Arroyo's durability (pitched at least 199 innings every season after 2004, without ever visiting the Disabled List) and mentoring skills have been exalted, but he is thirty seven years old, with a 87 mph fastball and his numbers look so much like Kevin Correia's. How much? I went to look and confirm. Here are Kevin Correia's and Bronson Arroyo's career numbers in several categories, from traditional like ERA to "advanced" like SIERA, FIP and xFIP: http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3694/10840083145_beb4a18519_o.jpg Looking at the first five columns, ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA and K/9, it is immediately noticeable that one could not have picked any more similar pitchers. Also interesting is the fact that both their ERA are so close to their FIP, xFIP and SIERA. Other measurements not listed here, but are extremely alike are: career HR/FB (identical at 10.9), K% (15.3 for Arroyo and 15 for Correia), tERA (4.81 for Correia and 4.84 for Arroyo) and Hits per 9 IP (1.07 for Correia and 1.02 for Arroyo). Alas. The data seem to indicate that my gut feeling was correct. They are the same pitcher. But with one (pretty large) difference in a single measurement: Their PE (pitching effectiveness) and xPE cannot be more different. You can read about PE and xPE (and why I like them as simple predictive measurements) starting here and following the relative links for more detail and how those measurements were developed. The difference (mainly walk rate differential-driven, which also reflects the changes in their WHIPs, since the hit rates are similar.) indicates that Arroyo is a much better pitcher and (unlike Correia whose numbers fall in the number 5 starter range with a PE of 7.92 and an xPE of 8.12) has been a solid number 3 type starter with a PE of 14.03 and an xPE of 13.60. But these are career numbers. How about his age 36, 2013 season? His PE of 17.52 and xPE of 16.13 in 2013 were even better than his total career numbers. A couple of additional things that have to be mentioned: a. Arroyo threw more than 100 pitches in 172 of his 385 games (44.7%) and 120 in 13 (3.4%). These numbers for other starting pitchers drafted when Arroyo did (1995): Ryan Dempster 52.9% and 7.5%, Jarrod Washburn 57.7% and 3.9%, Matt Morris 48.6% and 4%, Roy Halladay 57.9% and 4.8% and Russ Ortiz 53.8% and 12.8%. So if you are a pitch count believer, his arm has been abused less than his peers, which might indicate that there might be something in his 37 year old arm. b. Arroyo is a different type of a pitcher. Here is an excellent writeup on Arroyo's stuff from yesterday by ESPN 1500's Twins' reporter Brandon Warne and here is a fangraphs interview where Arroyo describes his pitching style. A lot of very interesting things in that piece about his approach of the game, but his admission that hard throwing pitchers have an easier time dealing with batters is golden, because I have heard the argument (which I oppose dearly) that increased velocity does not make someone a better pitcher. Hearing it from an actual MLB veteran pitcher, is refreshing. Arroyo also admits that he sees himself pitching up to 3 more years. So, suddenly and after a bit of research, I feel a bit better about this. My gut reaction was wrong: Arroyo is better than Correia and is expected to be better than Correia in the near future. So he can be one of the 3 pitchers better than Correia the Twins need. If the Twins get Arroyo they need 2 more pitchers better than him, hopefully top of the rotation types. On the other hand, he is thirty seven and I just hope that the elderly Floridian with the funky leg kick, who once was traded for Willy Mo Pena (by Twins' special assistant to the GM Wayne Krivsky nevertheless), remains healthy. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Bronson_Arroyo_2011.jpg/360px-Bronson_Arroyo_2011.jpg

That's the key here. And it is not Punto's fault that Ron Gardenhire had him start instead of being in a utility role. If people want to point fingers, they should point them at the manager and not at Punto.

There are 113 players with 20 or more triples in the history of the major leagues. Ever. Only 13 of those after 1930. After the ballparks changed dimensions after the depression, triples became much much harder to get (and home runs easier to get.) This is the problem here...

Let us not forget that Terry Ryan signed the (then) 38 year old Jamey Carroll to a 6.5 million dollar deal with an option to boot...

But we got .

Depends on how you are counting either Santana in 2007 (*) or Liriano in 2006. And I do not think that it is much of a farm issue. The Garza/Liriano/Baker/Bonser/Slowey/Blackburn/Perkins pipeline was a Twins' farm product and it was a good pipeline. However, the manager and pitching coach in the majors turned it into a single closer for the team. You cannot blame the farm for alienating and trading Garza and Slowey, tossing away Liriano and messing around with injured pitchers (Baker, Bonser, Blackburn, Slowey) I do agree that there is an issue (and I also agree that there is no accountability.) But it is not at the farm. It is in Minnesota (*) He learned his chanceup in Edmonton in 2002 from Bobby Cuellar, so since before it he was an one pitch pony, I consider him a Twins' farm developed player...

Based on the source, he was probably talking about Country Music acts at Target Field...

Here is what I think about this, esp. when comparing Dozier to a top prospect like Rozario as far as trade value goes: They both have about the same years of club control. Unlike Rozario, Dozier has proven himself (whatever that means) in the majors and I think he has more value. Those 5 years of club control will coincide with his prime and he will be there for the future. Rozario is an excellent prospect, but still unproven. That's why I think that Dozier is more valuable than a top 30 prospect. He can start at second base tomorrow

Arroyo will be 37, 38 and 39 in those 3 years. Already his Fastball is down to mid 80s. His K-rate is like Correia's. His FIP and xFIP are at the Correia level. He is actually worse than Correia. How many pitchers close to 40 can perform at a high level (without PED - Mr Colon) ? Maybe the Twins should look at Jaimie Moyer (rumored unavailable) and Carl Pavano and Carlos Zambrano (both willing and available) while they are at it. Law got it right. One year dear at low dollars at most and would make absolutely no sense for the Twins. And to a multi-year dear to regret, like Correia's and Capps' and Pavano's... They got their mediocre innings eater du jour in Correia, now they should go get some real pitching. I'd rather see Meyer than Arroyo pitch any day, because he will give the Twins a higher likelihood to win.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- A week ago, I looked at the available starting pitchers who are free agents and I distilled the long list to three names who the Twins should target this off-season. The premise is that other than Alex Meyer and maybe Kyle Gibson, the Twins do not have any "sure bets" for the top of their rotation for next season and the near future that will coincide with the coming of age of uber prospects Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. So, in order to compete in 2014 and not to waste that future, the Twins need three starting pitchers better than Kevin Correia and Kyle Gibson (today) who will hold the 2 last spots in the Twins' rotation for 2014. These pitchers should be young enough to be around at least for 3 years, maybe longer. The two other criteria I used to trim the free agent list, in addition to age (31 next season or younger) were characteristics sorely missed by the Twins' rotations since Johan Santana's and Fransisco Liriano's departure and injury and eventual departure: Hard throwing (FB 92 mph or better) and striking people out (K/9 8 or better.) I also excluded pitchers in rehab or mostly in the minors or in foreign leagues in 2013. From the list of 54 free agent pitchers, ended up with an "A" list of five names who meet the criteria and a "B" list of four names who meet some of the criteria. However it is unlikely that the Twins will get 3 free agent pitchers and there is a good opportunity to acquire a pitcher who would had been in the A list (and fairly on the top of the list), were he a free agent. There have been thoughts ranging from rumors to dreams about the Twins trading with the Detroit Tigers for Rick Porcello (who potentially is available, and is young enough, but his fastball is too slow and does not strike enough people out to even make the "B" list) or with the Cincinnati Reds for Homer Bailey (who has enough characteristics to make the "A" list, but likely will cost someone like Alex Meyer to acquire, which defeats the purpose) or even with the Tampa Bay Rays for David Price (who would like will cost the farm, and a bit more.) Who is the mystery pitcher and what would it take for the Twins to acquire him? The Twins need to start thinking about selling high (without destroying the team) and buying low. Unfortunately this front office has not been utilizing the practice well recently, from the Willingham non-trade after a career season, to the clearance sale of Frasisco Liriano (who was an ace for the Pirates last season) to the giving up of Delmon Young, Kevin Slowey and Jim Thome (whom the Philies eventually "flipped" to the Orioles for 2 C prospects.) The proposed trade is Brian Dozier, Casey Fien and Darin Mastroianni to the Chicago Cubs for Jeff Samardzija. Why would the Twins want this trade? Samardzija is 29 years old, listed at 6'5" and 225 lbs, is arbitration eligible and under team control for the next 2 years (estimated 2014 award and affordable $5 million), has top of the rotation stuff (94 mph FB average and K/9 around or higher than 9 the past 3 seasons; as far as our criteria go) is durable (175 and 214 IP the last 2 seasons) and (the buy low part) has a negative W-L ratio and ERA in the 4s, which is not top of the rotation results. Given that his xFIP is about a full point lower than his ERA, his SIERA is 3.60 and his xPE (19.8) in the number 2 starter range, his actual results are lower than his potential and were likely influenced by the Cubs' bad defense and their horrible for pitchers ballpark. Twenty eight year old Brian Dozier is coming from a career season that has cemented him in the minds of many as the Twins' second baseman of the future who should make the Twins move 22 year old Eddie Rosario back to the outfield, but it is unlikely sustainable, thus the sell high. Dozier's season with the bat, even though it seems Ruthian among the Twins' hitters, was a league average .726 OPS, resulting from a .244/.312/.414 slash line, that propelled his OPS to average because of SLG%. His SLG% was influence by a ridiculous HR/FB rate that is not sustainable. Drop is SLG% a conservative 30 points and a .244/.312/.384 (with a .696 OPS) does not look quite Ruthian. Prime candidate for regression. Sell high. Twenty five year old Eduardo Escobar, who quietly had a stellar 2013 AAA campaign and is repeating it in the Venezuela Winter League, can be an immediate replacement with potential shift to short stop when Eddio Rozario is deemed ready (as soon as September of 2014). Thirty year old Casey Fien who in the mind of some is a prime candidate for the right hand set up man (and Gardenhire used him in that role partially last season), is the poster boy for selling high; his peak was before the All-Star break (and the Twins lost the opportunity to trade him at the deadline before he regressed) but still has some sell high potential. I have explained the reasons to sell high on Fien here then, and they stand, albeit the attractiveness slightly reduced. The Twins have plenty of pitchers including Michael Tonkin who will replace Fien with potentially better results. Why Mastroianni? Because the 28 year old's future with the Twins as a defensive replacement/pinch runner/fourth outfielder was nulled when the Twins acquired 25 year old Ryan Pressly and might be the sweetener for the deal for the Cubs. Why would the Cubs want the trade? Samardzija has shown flashed of brilliance but has not really translated the potential and expectations into actual wins. There is pressure to win in Chicago and the clock is winding down for the new Front Office leadership to produce a winner in a division where the Reds, the Cardinals and now the Pirates provide tremendous competition. Thus the Cubs might soon be in "win-now" mode and spending some real money in free agency. Second base was a black hole in production last season. Dozier who will likely sustain his high HR/FB rates in Wrigley will help close that and continue with his stellar defense. The pen was a mess and Casey Fien, with a little bit of continuation of his luck will help them fix. Their outfield, especially centerfield was very inconsistent. Mastroianni can hold down centerfield in late innings for them. Also, last but not least, all 3 players are under club control for 5 years and would cost only about league minimum the first 2, helping the Cubs focus that money towards the acquisition of costly free agents Is it a fair trade? On first look, 5 years (2 at minimum wage) of each of Brian Dozier, Darin Mastroianni and Casey Fien for the last 2 arbitration years of Jeff Samardzija seem like a slam dunk for the Cubs. However, the Twins are buying low and selling high, making this a fair trade for both teams Just in case this happens, for the Twins' fans: The D, Z and I in Samardzija's name (whose nickname is "Shark) are silent, and pronounced Sah-MAR-jah http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3730/10837295476_e3e274820d_z.jpg

The market is getting really crazy out there. Allegedly Ruiz turned down a 2 year / $20 million offer. If this is the case the only "veteran" catcher to protect Pinto would be Doumit or Fryer (I know.) At least Butera was traded.

I was probably one of the biggest Ruiz fans and drove me nuts that the Twins had the likes of Tolbert and Buscher in the majors while Ruiz was in AAA putting MVP numbers. #FreeRandyRuiz The Colabello comparison is spot on, but Ruiz has a more compact swing that did translate somewhat in the majors, can hit the curve but he is a DH all the way, worse fielder than Colabello and these days teams are trying to get more versatile on their bench. He has no position and that has been his problem.

Those 2 do not belong in the same sentence: Colabello is 30 and at his prime and ready to decline. Parmelee is 25 and has not entered his prime yet. Also, unlike Colabello who was signed from the independent leagues, he was a first round pick. And the Twins do everything to try to make their first round picks successful. So he does have some rope left, especially since this is his last option year. There might have to be a decision next off-season, but there is a lot of baseball between now and then.

Wonder how many of these who think that Sano & Buxton should be up ASAP, also think that Hicks was rushed last season and should have started at AAA... Another thing, because I hear it a lot: Danny Santana is a great player with a lot of speed and potential, but at this point his minor league numbers are slightly worse than Florimon's. I really am not that sure about him being better than Florimon in the majors at this point, unless he has a couple of break-through seasons. At this point the Twins' system is really lacking in SS. Speaking of break-through seasons, based on what he did in AAA last season and the way he started in Venezuela this season, I will not be surprised if Eduardo Escobar wins and keeps the SS job. He is 24 and another of those guys who was rushed to the majors...

I hope that the last sentence is pure sarcasm

This is way too early to talk about the 2014 draft. At this point a couple seasons ago, when the Twins drafted Buxton, Lucas Giolito was the number one cannot miss prospect. Elbow issues later changed that.

Other than Meyer who will arrive before 2017 (hopefully in 2014), the starting pitchers in the Twins system are a. not even close to being a "sure thing" that they will make it to the majors and perform and b. are those 5-15 prospects...

The Twins have about 60-70 million to spend this off-season, if you follow the promised 52% of revenue. This will be enough for 3 pitchers and a couple of position players. Just glad that Butera is gone, because he would start next season.