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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    There are no clear ace free agents right now. in 2018 the Twins have under contract: Berrios Odorizzi Santana Gibson May Hughes Mejia Romero Gonsalves Littell in 2018 the Twins have under contract: Berrios Odorizzi (*) Santana (*) Pineda (x) Gibson May Hughes Mejia Romero Gonsalves Littell Adding yet another to their horde of number 3+ pitchers will do no service to the Twins. If anything they need to subtract from their current options. They will be better off to try to swing a trade for a number one or two, using players on their current horde (in addition to other prospects), because that will be an addition they need, plus a reduction of movable assets that might just go away... (*) Options (x) under contract in 2018 but unlikely to play
  2. Thrylos
    Maybe not. Case in point Doug Mientkiewicz. He was a great defensive first baseman with a .395 OBP the season before traded. They Twins thought that it was not good enough. And he was 4 years younger than Mauer.
  3. Thrylos
    I have been trying to think of a similar situation with Mauer, and the player who is closest has to be Todd Helton. He signed a 2 year / $10 million deal to play his last 2 seasons with the Rockies. He was a bit older, but he did not have a concussion like Mauer did, so I think that the performance/aging curves are similar. What is different is that those Colorado teams were 90 loss non-contenders. I just cannot see a situation where the contending Twins can have Mauer on their bench primarily for 2-3 seasons without that being a disturbance or drag the team the wrong way...
  4. Thrylos
    Way too early to think about the 2019 off-season and it depends on many many things. - How the Twins do in 2018 overall - How Mauer and Morrison do (kinda need one for 1B in 2019) - How Dozier and Gordon and Escobar and Adrianza do (need one for second base in 2019) - I think that Santana is a goner after this season - May, Romero, Gibson, Mejia, Gonsalves, Littell will likely fighting for 3 spots behind Berrios and Odorizzi, depending on how they did on 2018 (that's mainly for May and Gibson who could potentially be non-tender candidates.) - As far as Grossman goes, he will have to make the team in 2018 (his contract is non-guaranteed) before start thinking about 2019, and as of now he seems behind the 8 ball... - Transactions. If let's say the Twins are competing for the division come July, and get an arm or so, let's say Archer, all bets for 2019 are off. Same if they do not compete and trade assetts. - The pen will be a mystery because all are in play for 2018 as well, other than Rodney, Reed and Duke... Nobody knows who will win a spot and tons of relievers have options...
  5. Thrylos
    Difficult? According to whom? It makes no sense for this team to offer him anything more than a qualifying offer. He might have a difficult decision to make...
  6. Thrylos
    I don't know who had him in the top 3, but unless you can find that, you might be talking about my ranking, where I had him 6th. Ranking and reasoning here. And, yes, he has been MLB-ready with the glove for a couple seasons now. His issue used to be that he (like Navarreto now and always btw) could not hit his way out of a paper bag. Catchers do develop later unless they are freaks like Mauer or Posey
  7. Thrylos
    FWIW Garver hit 238/.333/.429 (.762 OPS, 105 OPS+, .326 wOBA) against LHP last season in the majors. That is not bad. If he gets all LHPs and about 1/4 of the RHPs the Twins should be fine in 2018. Just don't play him at the OF or 1B...
  8. Thrylos
    The comparison is about half right. Buxton has not had an OPS north of .730 in any season (or an OPS north of .705 against RHP in any season.) As a matter of fact he only had an OPS north of .800 for only 2 consecutive months. (July and August of 2018.) If Buxton gets an OPS close to .775 or so, then the Twins should start thinking an extension. Sano should be a higher priority to extend right now, since he is a better hitter and has longer service time
  9. Thrylos
    FWIW, this is not true. Information that the MLB uses to make employment decisions is not protected by any privacy laws, since it is not USDOJ info (privacy act of 1974) because no police report was ever filed, social security/financial info (Sarbanes Oxley), or personal health information (HIPAA.) They can release everything they can, and they should, in order to be transparent. So far it is a she says, he says information that lacks any (named or outed) witnesses (and the 2 other individuals involved - memorabilia shop owner and agent - suggested that they did not observe anything because they were not in the area at the time...)
  10. Thrylos
    There are a few things that should be under consideration: - The Astros of the last 2-3 seasons legitimized the reasons why teams should try to get as many top prospects as possible, play them to figure out who are the best and then when close to their prime, supplement them with talent to close holes and win. Sorry, this might be regarded as "tanking", but the Astros won more World Series than the Yankees this decade. - Indeed the salaries (top and median) grew much faster than the luxury tax threshold, which in every market makes it a need for correction - There are way too many bad contracts. They were back in the day as well, but the poster boys of those bad contracts then (7/$126M to Barry Zito, and 8/$121M to Mike Hampton) do not look horribly out of place now. They are about half of the Cano, Pujols, A-Rod, Cabrerra, Stanton contracts. Yet another market correction about how much you pay players about to retire happened. - Front Offices got smarter. There is a huge difference between a 6 win player and a 3 win player. Previous front offices did not get the concept of value and were willing to overpay for those aging 3-win players. Not any more. Lynn, Cobb, & Arietta are caught in this situation, esp. now that the savvier FOs realize that a 1st or 2nd round draft pick as a prospect might worth some $. The Qualifying Offer hurt the players more than it helped them... - The best thing that can happen for baseball right now, it would be if one of those "tanking" clubs made it to the post-season (not unlike the Twins did last season) based on what they get from their prospects...
  11. Thrylos
    Nah you just need your 2 and 3 to be better than the other teams' (in the LDS and LCS and WS). And this assumes that you are not in a wildcard situation because then you need your number 1 to be better than their number 1... number 2 and number 3 will pitch 4 games between them. 4 wins are enough.
  12. Thrylos
    Do tell. Name names please (this side of the millennium preferably)
  13. Thrylos
    That 4-men rotation plus a swingman was state of the art in the 1980s. With the unbalanced schedule now does not make too much sense because of the high likelihood of games suspended due to weather, doubleheaders etc. He might want to do it, but I think that it just is not practical.
  14. Thrylos
    Indeed. As a matter of fact, Sano does not look fat. I just wish that Falvey got rid of those old-timers, they are the problem here and not Sano.
  15. Thrylos
    +26 wins, and reaching the postseason after an 103 loss season. Much superior to any other organization and I'd say no one was expecting. Math does not lie
  16. Thrylos
    This is a new DH era. Teams are using the position to rotate players. As a matter of fact, as far as the DH position goes, the Twins were 4th in the AL in wOBA, t4th in wRC+, and 7th in OPS, according to fangraphs. Great to have Morrison, no argument there, but the DH production was hardly the Twins' issue last season, compared to the rest of the league
  17. Thrylos
    Valencia has burned many bridges with the Twins. There is no way I see him coming back. John Swol over at Twinstrivia.com posted a great set of podcasts interviewing Wayne Hattaway, that are a must listen. Hattaway mentions a few things about Valencia there...
  18. Thrylos
    I think that it is still too early to tell who will claim the last two bench spots. The way I see it (alphabetically) Adrianza, Aybar, Granite, Grossman, and Vargas, as of now, are after 2 spots. Each of them brings a different thing on the table. Given that Escobar has a job and can play everywhere in the infield and occasionally (not that great) at the outfield, any combination of the 5 might be happening. Add to that the fact that there are a lot of unsigned free agents. Matter of fact, if you get rid of the catchers, there are 28 unsigned free agents with major league experience. If the Twins bring in someone like (just throwing names here) Neil Walker or Jose Bautista on a minor league contract, this whole equation might change. Lots of Spring left still, we just got into March
  19. Thrylos
    So what? There is one thing wanting to do something, and another publicly saying that you want to do something.
  20. Thrylos
    This is not about Cuddyer. That's another story, but since you brought it up, the issue I had with Cuddyer started with his performance at game 163 at the WSux and what he said just afterwards. Another story and long time ago. Again: If the baseball industry perceived that Dozier had as much value as some of the Twins' fans around here do, he would had been a Dodger right now. Also, the people are talking about the value of Dozier's "leadership" to the Twins seem to keep forgetting that in his career year the Twins lost 103. I value him as much as the industry does. No issues with his extraverted nature. Escobar has an extraverted nature as well, and I think that he will be a great replacement for Dozier. Matter of fact, for the "bomb" loving fans, if Escobar had the same PAs that Dozier had last year, he would had hit 30 HRs...
  21. Thrylos
    Toronto and Texas has tried that strategy. Did not really work well for them I think that the Twins will be competing for the wild card and even possibly for the division. They could make the post-season, but to go far in the postseason Berrios have to take it up a couple of notches from last season (and he might be well in the way,) Odorizzi has to be a very dependable number 3, and someone (likely Fernando Romero) will have to pull a c2006 FranKKKKKKKKKKKKie performance (without getting hurt in the process)...
  22. Thrylos
    Not, unless he is a top of the rotation pitcher...
  23. Thrylos
    But the important part is that he did say that he want to become a free agent and how much he is looking forward to it. And by talking to someone with press credentials in a non-confidential manner, it had to be almost certain that it will be "paraded around" some place or another... He could have said on the subject what Mauer did in a similar 1-1 interview, and call it a day. Here is what Mauer said: “I really just want to enjoy this season and go out and play some baseball. I’m going to enjoy this year.” I suspect that you did not put those words in Dozier's mouth, and I suspect that you did not hold a gun to his head...
  24. Thrylos
    If you compare his 2017 with his 2015, you will find that his numbers were almost identical, other than the ones driven by his BABIP that was about 40 points higher in 2017 than 2015, and about 25 points higher than his career. To add to that, he will be 31 this season and age-based regression will continue. Already lost a step on the bases (16/23 SB, 69.5% last season) and will not improve. How many 31 year old players got big money this off-season? He will be older than Jay Bruce was this off-season. Will he get a Jay Bruce type contract? And there should be no argument that Bruce is more valuable than Dozier.
  25. Thrylos
    You are over-rating Dozier. If he were worth anything more, he would had been a Dodger last off- season. An overpaid second baseman is a huge luxury for most teams out there.
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