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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    It is not time yet, until we see what his numbers are when the 40.0 HR/FB%, .538 BABIP, and 39.2 LOB% land towards Earth values... BTW, I hear a lot about Luke Bard and Nick Burdi. Where are they now? At least Molitor is using him as a mop up pitcher. There are bigger fish to fry in the Twins' pen than their mop up pitcher.
  2. Thrylos
    Still a bit early. Pressly is a useful reliever. This season is still very young to start making conclusions about his degree of usefulness. More so because of a couple of things that are a bit of an aberration: - He has been throwing his FB less than half of the time and his breaking stuff more than half of the time. I doubt that this continues through the season - He is a full 1 mph off his FB velocity in 2017. Same reduction with the breaking stuff. Not a "high 90s" guy any more... Only 8-1/3 IP. Give it 3 times that much and let's see how it goes...
  3. Thrylos
    This is good stuff, but Berrios is more impressive than this: You have to factor in average pitch velocity as well. Physics says that the higher the pitch velocity, the higher exit velocity when the ball is hit the same way (think about hitting a ball to a wall, the harder you hit it, the harder it will come back) Brent Suter's average fastball is at 85.9 mph and he throws it 60% of the time, his curveball is 73.6 mph and he throws that about 18% of the time, his change 80.1 mph and he throws it 16.4 % of the time, and finally his slider is at 77.7 mph about 6% of the time Berrios's ave FB is 93.5 mph (61%), curve 82.5 mph (27.6%) and change 84 mph (10.3%) If there were a metric that factors this, Berrios's numbers would be way on top there...
  4. Thrylos
    A couple of caveats regarding this: - the data is good starting 1974, so lots of players including Oliva, Killebrew etc are excluded. - This is like WAR, so it is cumulative measurement, so people who played more seasons have higher. Also, it is a situational measurement, so it is relative to other players. So a Clutch/season might be a more interesting measurement. To that point. Mauer is ranked 9th with a 2.55 clutch measurement. Arguably, the number 10th ranked Twins player, Delmon Young wiht a 2.52 measurement, but in about half of Mauer's seasons is twice as "Clutch" as Mauer, per that measurement So not sure how it can help with granular quantifying comparisons of outcomes between players. Of course, as far as perennial negative "Clutch" hitters like Hunter, Cuddyer, and Dozier go, it can be very informative... It is more of a trend measurement (overall positive or overall negative) vs. quantifying...
  5. Thrylos
    This is an interesting "what if" question, but the write up does nor really answer it, but goes into tangents, instead of examining that hypothetical situation. If Prior instead of Mauer, likely no Santana and definitely no Liriano or Nathan, because they needed a catcher. So what happened in the 2010s, would had happened a decade earlier and would had resulted in changes in the Twins' FO and management, that would had resulted to a dynasty starting at about 2009 or so that would had given them a new ballpark with a roof without a second thought, and probably a few rings. Bad move drafting Mauer, because it perpetuated the mentality of "good enough"
  6. Thrylos
    Kinda hate seeing math-based arguments that are kinda almost calculated all the way but stopped in the middle. Based on the above, you can calculate the numbers for someone who has played 64% of the time as C and 36% of the time as 1B (and I kinda doubt that this is accurate, since he DHed a tad too.) So the numbers for a HOF guy who played at those 2 positions with Mauer's percentages are: 58 career WAR, 37.3 WAR Peak 47.6 JAWS Mauer's 54.5 career WAR, 39 WAR Peak, 46.7 JAWS. FWIW. But the discussion on whether Mauer deserves to be in the HOF or not, is too premature, since he is still playing. Cannot make math-based arguments with incomplete data. Give it a few years.
  7. Thrylos
    Got to have an open mind...
  8. Thrylos
    You know, this had the bones for a really good, compassionate article, other than it's beginning: Sorry, but unless you give the proper respect to Puerto Rico and treat it as part of the United States, as it is, whatever else cannot sound anything but forced and patronizing... It ain't another country. It is a US Territory.
  9. Thrylos
    Even Napoleon had his Watergate
  10. Thrylos
    You'd rather see the Twins re-sign Mauer than win a World Series? If so, you are Mauer fan and not a Twins' fan.
  11. Thrylos
    Facts: In 2017, among 28 qualified first basemen, Mauer ranked: 16th in WAR, 19th in wOBA, 19th in wRC+, 20th in OPS, and 5th in batting average In other words, in metrics that reflect overall performance, he was in the lowest third in the league. Yes. Having a first baseman who is in the bottom third of the third basement, hurts a team that wants to compete in the post-season.
  12. Thrylos
    This should not be about Mauer, it should be about the Twins. If they feel that there is not a ready replacement out there, they should try to sign him for a one year contract, if he performs this season (and 11 games a season do not make 2K hits or not). Fans prefer wins and world championships to the ghosts of their heroes past.
  13. Thrylos
    Kinda stuck with not firing the manager who got the MoY award, though...
  14. Thrylos
    This is an interesting point that shows the difference in parity between the two leagues: A 6-4 record (.600 winning ratio) or 97 win baseball team is a very highly performing team and has the chops to contend deep into the post-season. Only 4 mlb teams had that record last season A 4-6 record (.400 winning ratio) or 65 win (or 97 loss) baseball team is horrible team that will pick on the top 5 next draft A .600 football team with a 10-6 record could lead the division and likely make the post season but it is nothing special, since 13 NFL teams had that record last season. An NFL team with a 6-10 record is not the worst team since 11 NFL teams had that record or worst last season... So the difference between .200 winning points is much bigger in the MLB than in the NFL
  15. Thrylos
    I'd say that 7/7 runs inherited scored is statistically significant even with sample size = 7. As is calling something that might be over one's head "nerdy", instead of making an effort to understand what it might mean. As far as trends go, you only need 3 data points to have one...
  16. Thrylos
    gmLI is really a measure on management trust and not pitching performance. It is all about Molitor's belief on his pitchers. A couple days ago, I used Situational Run Expectancy (RE24) which measures how close to the average pitcher in a particular situation (bases loaded or empty, 8 runs up etc) a particular pitcher performs and Fangraphs "Clutch" which measures how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment, to analyse the Twins' pen. They are both WPA-based measurements. Results and conclusion here. These 2 measurement offer an interesting insight. I did not check them after yesterday's game, but I think that the conclusion is pretty close...
  17. Thrylos
    Eight games Give it eighty and then we can start formulating hypotheses. Sub "Buxton" (who has not been that much better with the stick) for "Morrison" on your title, and 3/4 of the Twins Territory will cry in protest Regarding this: You can quantify that. His BABIP is 0.100 today and his average BABIP 0.271 (and last season .268; BABIP has nothing to do with HRs). Assuming that he will continue to be the hitter he was, adding that .171 to his BA and OBP, he's got .245 BA and .338 OBP. I could live with that. And, again, if he starts hitting HRs in his regular clip, those will also increase and BABIP does not reflect this Game temperature is a huge thing and it has been pretty nasty. And that really effects hitting. Give it till June, before start thinking about his performance
  18. Thrylos
    Hard to believe, since the injury happened in the last game of the 2017 season...
  19. Thrylos
    Worrying? Why? There are two pitchers in the organization, one available now (Fernando Romero) and one available later (Trevor May) who are likely better than Santana, with a third (Michael Pineda) who will be ready to come during the final sprint of the season. Wasted money this season and he should had been traded when he had some value after last season that was an aberration. Santana was going to be irrelevant for the 2018 Twins anyways, with Lance Lynn's addition...
  20. Thrylos
    Mauer is close to reaching a milestone... Dozier is not close to any milestones as far as HRs go. Pushing it juuuuuuuuuust a tad on that respect... On the other hand, Dozier is 157 hits away from 1000. That, along with Mauer's 2000, might had made a better story.
  21. Thrylos
    I really would not mind if Duke is relegated to mop-up duty and Hildenberger goes to Rochester when Hughes returns. Neither has been pretty effective this season. Couple more games left with Seattle. Hope that they Twins got giving up runs out of their system.
  22. Thrylos
    8 hits and 3 ER against high A hitters in warm Florida translates to not surviving the first inning in the majors in cold Minnesota against the defending World Champions. Not.That.Good. The Twins need a plan B, quickly, otherwise they might as well forfeit that game.
  23. Thrylos
    Not quite. LaMarre is replacement level Morrison has a career 5.6 fWAR in 864 games before this season. This is about 1 fWAR per 150 games, or, in other words, one win above replacement, which is not superstar level, but it is not replacement level....
  24. Thrylos
    Players do tend to hit better at home. At some point that factor has to be deducted from the alleged "Coors Field Effect". FWIW the Coors Field park factor is 115 (TF is 103 btw). So take 15% off his home slash line (actually only 15% of the hitting for the OBP because a walk is a walk) and becomes a park neutral .342/.407/.657 that is still pretty monstrous. He has been successful at Coors field and that's where he is playing and paid to play You got to compare his contract to those of the other outffielders and not of second basemen. His $AAV is below Trout, Cespedes, Heyward, Stanton, JD Martinez, Justin Upton, Jacoby Ellsbury contracts. And only Cano's as far as second basemen go. For a good reason: Every failed with the glove SS (just like the current Twins' second baseman) can play second base and not many can play centerfield. Pedroia is making about $15M AAV, Murphy $12 and Kinzler was at $11M last season. And that was before the prices dropped. Those numbers are the absolute max that Dozier will be looking at for about 3 years or so. An aging CF can move to a corner position or first base if he cannot play his position. A short aging 2B can only move to DH if he cannot play his... Apples with apples.
  25. Thrylos
    Not.Even.Close. If Dozier ever hits .331/.399/.601 like Blackmon did last season, then he might have a case. Otherwise he better keep continuing the whining regarding rookies bunting against the shift...
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