Thrylos

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Last season, after his World Baseball Classic performance (which ended with a pulled groin that made him miss a chunk of Spring Training and 44 games with the Twins) and his consistent performance in June and July that had him enter August with a 7-4 record and a 3.18 ERA in 12 starts, made many people in the Twins Cities call Samuel Deduno an"Ace". This included several well-respected mainstream media. (For sample of relative stories, look here, here, here, here and here.) Not sure whether calling Deduno an "Ace" (which, of course, he never was; being the only pitcher who gives a bad team a semi-consistent change of staying close in a game, an "Ace" does not make) caused a hubris-derived curse, but he was never the same afterwards, because of an injury that caused him to have double (labrum and rotator cuff) shoulder surgery the Fall, making his trip up North breaking camp with the Twins pretty dubious. When (then interim) General Manager Terry Ryan, returned to that role with the Twins after the 2011 ninety nine loss season he identified several places that needed change in order for the team to improve. In addition of the firing of Jerry White and Rick Stelmaszek, the retirement of Steve Liddle and the "no scholarships" approach about certain players like Tsuyosi Nishioka, and the reassignment of the other remaining coaches, Ryan fired the Twins' head athletic trainer Rick McWane, establishing medical treatment of the players as one of the areas for improvement and part of the cause of the Twins demise in 2011. How well have those changes worked in 2013? Let's look at the chronicle of Samuel Deduno's shoulder injury, diagnosis and treatment, with stories from last August on as they happened, and let the readers reach their own conclusions: August 7: Deduno allows 4 runs in 5.7 innings in loss to Royals giving up 12 hits. August 13: He allows 5 runs in 6 innings in loss to Indians; 5 hits and 3 bases on balls. August 18: Allows 5 runs in 5 innings. Allows 8 hits. After the game Deduno speaks to the press indicating he has shoulder problems. He said that "It started behind the shoulder a couple weeks ago [August 7] , but I could handle that". "Now it's in the front. I felt it a few days ago [August 13]. Today, I didn't feel good. In the bullpen and during the game, I didn't feel strong." [In other words, Deduno makes 3 starts with shoulder issues. It is unclear whether he communicated those issues to the training staff] The Twins' trainers prescribe and Deduno undergoes Electronic Stimulation Therapy (a muscle therapy). August 19: Consistent with the treatment prescribed, the Twins' training staff diagnose the condition as bicep tendinitis August 21: Deduno throws bullpen and says he feels fine August 22: Starts against Cleveland. Allows one run in 6 innings in a win at Cleveland. 3 hits, 4 bases on balls August 29: Starts against the Royals. Allows 3 runs in 3 innings against the Royals. Out with shoulder soreness. [In other words, Deduno makes 2 additional starts with apparently unresolved shoulder issues] August 30: Deduno placed on of the 15-day DL September 8: Deduno transferred to the 60-day DL September 9: The Twins' GM talks to the press about Deduno. Saying that he might need shoulder surgery but is "not as bad as it sounds" and could rehab instead. Terry Ryan indicates that Deduno is "battling inflammation" and says that he is "sure that it is scar-tissue related" September 9 (later in the day): The Twins announce that Deduno has "issues in his labrum and rotator cuff" and might need "just a clean up" September 13: The Twins indicate that Deduno has "Fraying in the shoulder" recovery timetable is set to two months, should be ready on the onset of Spring Training September 20: Announcement that Deduno has successful arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery (by his agent) reparing "slight fraying" and "slight tear". December 9: Twins indicate that Deduno has started to playing catch and his rehab progresses (in Fort Myers) as planned and he is still on schedule for Spring Training. Meanwhile, Terry Ryan signs three free agent pitchers who, in addition to Correia, are all penciled in ahead of Deduno for the 2014 rotation. Terry Ryan after the season publicly said that "Deduno has pretty much earned a spot on the 2014 rotation", but his actions show that he does not count on Deduno. Whether he will be ready for Spring Training or not, it will be seen, since there has been pretty much silence on Deduno since September 20. It has to be noted that Deduno has been very fragile. Here is his injury and lost days history in his professional career: Missed 30 days of 2013 with Right Shoulder injury Missed part of 2013 (ST and 44 days) with Groin injury Missed 45 days of 2012 with Right Elbow injury Missed 18 days of 2011 with Groin injury Missed 111 days of 2010 with Right Elbow injury (inflammation) Missed 22 days of 2009 with Hip Flexor injury Missed all of 2008 with Tommy John Surgery recovery Missed 45 days of 2005 with Right Shoulder injury The only healthy seasons in Deduno's career were 2006 and 2007. It looks like his Right Shoulder, Groin and Hip, and Right Elbow (and unfortunately even after Tommy John Surgery) have been his problem areas. The elbow and shoulder issues are especially worrisome... I hope that Deduno is healthy, because he pitches in an intriguing way and could help the Twins, but if his history is any guide of the future, he is not to be counted on to have the ball every fifth day. http://www3.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Samuel+Deduno+Cleveland+Indians+v+Minnesota+Xce3dNpDXAQl.jpg

He is not allowed to play in official games. He will go to Spring Training normally (this would likely be by the first week of March with all players not on the 40-man roster who did not receive an invitation to the MLB club; he might still receive an invitation, which means he would report on 2/22, but I doubt it.) Once ST breaks and teams go to their respective locations, he will stay for extended ST with several players who will be playing in Elizabethton and the GCL Twins this season. He will play games with them against the Red Sox and Orioles EST squads and scrimmage with them and also practice. 50 games will be done by the end of May, and at that point he will join his club, whatever that might be.

Close, but you got more. Last season payroll was below the 52% of revenue that Pohald and St Peter have been indicating that is the benchmark for spending for player payroll. Last season their total revenue was $215 million. Add $25 from this TV $ and you got $240. 52% of that is $125 million. The Twins are sitting around $75 million, so they got $50 million or so to play with right now. They can sign Tanaka and have another $30 million to play so they can get Drew and Cruz if they wanted to. They can. Should they? I don't know. I don't see Drew as the guy who would put them over the top in 2014. Frankly, I'd rather see them max their international $ and sign top international talent and keep some of that $ to extend Sano and/or Buxton in a Longoria-type of deal. As far as 2015 goes, at least Correia and Willingham go off the books ($15 M or so), so there is flexibility.

This is good stuff, but there is a huge caveat: League average hitting and league average pitching will get you to .500 maybe. I think that with the changes the Twins made, they might actually have league average pitching in 2014. So they need to get the hitting above average, if they were to complete. Also, this is very optimistic and assumes a. not regression for players with career seasons (Dozier, Pinto etc.) and b. rebound for players with sub par 2013 (Willingham, Plouffe, Kubel, Parmelee, Suzuki). Likely, this will not happen. Not sure what the solution is here (I really would like them to get a legitimate hitter for the OF, pushing a Willingham/Kubel DH platoon for one thing, or have Plouffe there and Sano at 3B) but it looks like the Twins would need break-out performances from their CF, SS and C, potentially Sano at 3B and not much regression, in order to have a respectable 2014.

I don't think that he will be any sort of improvement over Hicks/Presley at this point. That said, I don't know what the Twins may think. They were bidding on Rajai Davis who is kinda of a similar player (speed being the biggest tool for both and contact not being that great) Just checked his Japanese league stats and had around .800 OPS (does not mean much) but stole only 3 out of 5 bases, which is really surprising...

Here is an interesting article from BA on the top. What is interesting, is that they say that Rosario is the number 6 prospect in the Twins' organization. They have not released their rankings yet (coming in a couple weeks or so) but it looks like he went up one spot from the 2013 rankings (that can be found here.) With 3 graduates ahead of him from the 2013 rankings and likely Stewart and Pinto ahead of him, might be easy to guess the BA top ten a couple weeks before they are released...

I had that story here when it broke, based on Rosario quotes in detail, even what he tested positive for on the title. And it was not marijuana or anything like that, so even those allegations (like the PED allegations) are wrong and unfair. It was prescription painkillers that he took before (with a prescription) per doctors' instructions for his broken jaw in Beloit. This time he took them without a prescription and without doctors' advise for pain in his elbow. Read it any way you want to, but it is different that buying coke, pot or crack at a street corner. He did not. I think that he learned a lesson to talk to team doctors for stuff like that. Also, this suspension might be a blessing in disguise because it will allow him to stay at EST at Fort Myers and work on his fielding at second base. His hitting timing might need some work but I do not see him spend any serious time at high A+. Likely goes to New Britain right away and potentially to Rochester after the draft. 50 days has him starting ball end of May. Not that long. Today the Twins signed his temporary replacement utility player Corey Wimberly who will likely go to New Britain.

Someone is uninformed, or maybe the key is the "at this point", if it was resolved when the email was sent. I don't think that anyone is lying. Maybe the reason is that Arcia is not considered a minor leaguer, so Radcliff or Antony and not Steil might be the people who know what is going on...

They are There are as many SS in the HOF as RFs for the highest position (24) Ozzie Smith has a career .666 OPS and 87 OPS+ Luis Aparicio a career .662 OPS and 82 OPS+ Phil Rizzuto .706 OPS and 93 OPS+ etc those guys are not there for their bats (and should probably not all of them be there) That's why I like WAR. Because it takes care of the defense as well. Ozzie Smith has a 76.5 WAR because of his glove. His oWAR is only in the 40s... Catchers are the same story, but they are fewer (16) Senators' own Rick Ferrell is similar situation with Ozzie Smith. Career .741 OPS and 95 OPS plus are not enough for an OF to be in...

Issue resolved. Full Story here in Spanish: per Arcia: - The Twins asked him to be in a baseball function and wanted him in the US 1/6/14 - He negotiated and got out of it - He will report to the Aguilas next week. Done deal

Blown out of proportion. Here (in Spanish) is a blurb in the El Abonado news paper about what is going on. Apparently Arcia has a conflict with "an invitation to an event of baseball nature" in the States (could it be Twinsfest, caravan or anything like that?) It also says that his agent is whether or not he is required to go to the "event" and accordingly play baseball with the Aguilas either now and skip it, or after the "event" is done. So the kid is doing the right thing, have his agent double checking, finding out what the expectations are for him, and keeping everyone involved in the loop. Very few players, especially his age, would do that.

mea culpa. Double-checked 14th ERA indeed. I would agree about AL and NL as far as starters go, but by the time the pen is in, usually the other starter is out of the game and pinch hitters are hitting for him. Not that much difference here. And bullpen ERA is kind of a bogus stat because if a reliever gives up an inherited bases loaded triple with two outs that empties the bases and get the next guy out, he looks like he had a clean appearance and has a zero ERA for the game. That's why xFIP is a better measure here and the Twins' pen was 24th in the majors... Actually David Appelman's Clutch measurement might be an even better measure for pen effectiveness because it combines win probability added with leverage. The Twins' pen ranks 20th in the majors with 0.08...

Every other ball club has the same considerations as well... Those are average rates and it happened throughout baseball

That's my major concern as well. On Twins game days there is plenty of time to catch minor league action in the morning before the game starts. With that arrangement it will be harder. On the other hand, if someone stays closer to downtown Fort Myers, it is conceivable to get by the PDC and stay for a couple of hours before head down to Hammond Stadium...

True. And not sure what the answer is yet, but I was told City of Palms, which it the (now empty) ballpark area. I hope they get it together and it stays where it is. To give you a perspective. In the following map, A is Lee County Sports Complex/Hammond Stadium (where the Twins train now), B is the old Red Sox Player Development Center (where their minor leaguers were when at the City of Palms) and C is the City of Palms. A to B is 10 long and busy miles... http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7456/11720035606_35e6340865_z.jpg

Not happening at that price point. This is less than Nolasco money and years. I think that it would take the same 4+1 years but at $17-18M per to sign Garza. Still. I have a very hard time seeing Garza here while Gardy and Andy are running the ball club. Feel free to go back and refer to the published stuff by the press about Garza and GardyNAndy during his first stint here and make up your own minds... For some reason I believe that this is a smoke-screen of some sort.

I answered a similar question in the original blog. People say that the pen was "overworked" because it logged the most innings in the majors (by a hair btw). However this is deceptive. Here is why: Actually the correct measurement for overworking a pen is not total innings, but IP/appearance because if a pen has used 10 different pitchers to pitch 400 innings would result to more tired pitchers than if used 15 different pitchers to pitch 420 innings, correct? As far as IP/Appearance goes, if you round down to one decimal (more decimals does not make sense), you will see that pretty much the whole league is at the same place: Astros 1.2 Pirates 1.2 Athletics 1.1 Blue Jays 1.1 Mariners 1.1 Marlins 1.1 Nationals 1.1 Padres 1.1 Rockies 1.1 Royals 1.1 Twins 1.1 Yankees 1.1 Angels 1.0 Braves 1.0 Brewers 1.0 Cardinals 1.0 Cubs 1.0 Diamondbacks 1.0 Dodgers 1.0 Giants 1.0 Indians 1.0 Mets 1.0 Philies 1.0 Rangers 1.0 Rays 1.0 Reds 1.0 Tigers 1.0 White Sox 1.0 I think that the difference of 0.2 innings in spread (less than a batter faced) is insignificant for the amount of innings pitched... There goes another myth about "tired pens..."

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2560-By-the-numbers-a-body-count-of-the-Twins-pitching-depth-for-2014-and-myth-busting

Has not been announced yet, but it is usually about a week after the major league players. First practice for the MLB Twins ST is 2/22 this season. So by the end of February I think. By the second week of March games are happening. Before that you will see practices and internal scrimmages. Big catch this season: There is a chance that the new MiLB locker room building might not be ready and has been word that they might move some stuff to the City of Palms facility that is empty and has 2 instead of 3 fields, but both are nicer than what they have right now. It will be a huge PITA to follow for MLB and MiLB if it happens, because CoP is kinda far from the Twins complex.

This has to be the number one story for a lot of reasons (and well chosen,) but I would have to add as part of the story Terry Ryan's retention. The apparent lack of holding people accountable after this season, the third awful season in a row, has to be part of the story also. (And I am saying "apparent", because based on what Ryan is doing, it looks like 2014 is the last change for him and the manager...) This is who the Twins officially said that was the reason for awfulness in the last 3 seasons: 2011 - Bill Smith (who allegedly wanted to fix the team by spending more $ -what Ryan is doing now- and that conflicted with the philosophy of the higher ups) 2012 - Jerry and Stelly and the trainer, and the right coaches in the wrong positions, so chairs rearranged. Liddle retired. Steiney, Cuellar and Bruno hired. The starting pitchers so changes made there, which resulted in a worse rotation in 2013 than 2012. 2013 - The lack of an infield & base running coach. So Molitor is hired. The starting pitchers and the DH. So changes are made there. Let's hope it all works out in 2014...

According to Phil Rogers of mlb.com the Twins so far had one of the top 5 off-seasons in baseball. This is in direct contrast with what Bill Baer wrote at Hardball last week or so. One of the two is a professional reporter, and my gut tends to agree with him, instead of the amateur...

After this season. They renewed for 2 seasons before last season.

Here is my take: AAA: Colabello/Rodriguez AA: Vargas/Ziegler A+: DJ Hicks/Gonzalez A: Kepler/Haar With Vargas, Hicks and Kepler getting mid season promotions. You can flip Ziegler and Rodriguez but since Colabello started at AA, I suspect Ziegler will do too... Potentially Harrison moves to 1st base in Fort Myers, with Goodrum moving to third and Polanco to short. We shall see. I don't think that Mike Gonzalez will be a Twin for long... If Colabello is gone, you can move Ziegler and Gonzalez up a spot. Still too early to tell.

To call Mauer a HOF-lock is pretty premature at this point. Yes he did have a great 9-10 season career so far and if he continues for a while, he would likely be in the HOF discussion. Here is the thing: Hitters of his kind (doubles but not HR power, high OBP, batting champion types) need to be close to the 3000 barrier to cross the barrier. Looks like the writers have that benchmark (unless people's careers are cut short by death or accident sometimes) I will give you few comparables: Boggs, 3010 hits(IN) Gwynn, 3141 hits (IN) Alomar 2724 (IN) Larkin 2340 (IN) Harrold Baines 2866 (OUT) Dave Parker 2712 (OUT) Don Mattingly 2153 (OUT) Craig Biggio 3060 (???) Inchiro Suzuki, 2742 (???) Pudge Rodriguez 2844 (???) Larry Walker 2160 (???) Mauer has 1414 hits. 150 a season and he needs 11 seasons to get there... He can do it. (FWIW, other Cs in the HOF like Bench and Fisk were close to 400 HRs, a milestone that Mauer likely will not get. Most HOF Cs are power guys. The Piazza situation will be interesting) Still I hope that this conversation is about 15 years premature

Well... It is a huge change in mentality. Previously (in the Terry Ryan/Bill Smith years) the Twins extended their own guys or re-signed their own free agents instead of spending $ outside. This season they spent record $ on outside free agents (Nolasco, Hughes and Suzuki so far) and, potentially even more important, they gave an external free agent pitcher a 4+1 contract. This is the same Twins who would not sign pitchers to more than 2+1 contracts and preferred 1+1 contacts. If this change in MO is not huge news, I don't know what it is.... (And they are not done spending yet; they still have about $50 M to spend to get to 52% of revenue so let it play for a while... I still think that they will get a couple more bats... But spending for spending's shake is nutty.)