Thrylos

Alright. Here is another way to state this: If someone can have Freese with a career 112 OPS+ and 109 OPS+ in 2015, why trade for Plouffe with a career 99 OPS+ and 99 OPS+ in 2015. Step further: If you are a GM why the hey would you offer and agree on $7.25M arbitration with Trevor Plouffe, if you can have Freeze for $3M (and have $4.25M left to sign a real reliever.) Wonder what this says about Ryan and his chief contact negotiation/GM in waiting

Mason Melotakis, JT Chargois, and Taylor Rogers: Do they feel pressure in performing in their first time in the big league camp as new 40-man roster members knowing that there are jobs to be won in the bullpen? (getting down there Tuesday for 9 days, will make sure to say hi if I spot you at the back fields)

This is a good sign. His curve has always been excellent. I've seen him play long toss with it from 100-150 away and hit his target anytime, which is really freaky

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Ricky Nolasco's performance with the Minnesota Twins has been a disappointment. He was signed into a large 4-year contract after the 2013 season to be the Twins' Ace, a destiny he has yet to fulfill. There has been discussion this Spring that despite that contract, Nolasco would have to earn a position in the 2016 Twins' rotation, and hints that at this point, he might be outside, looking in. A couple of days ago, there were indications that he might not want to accept this, and the Twins' blogosphere and fan forums erupted. I am not going to discuss this particular event at this point, other than say that it is not anything new. For example, last season Mike Pelfrey did not take his demotion to the pen lightly, and back in the day, current Twins' closer Glen Perkins filed a Union grievance against the Twins for being demoted. Nolasco's situation is not a done deal. Yet. I think that it is really important to look at his performance, potential root causes for the drop and whether there is hope for Nolasco being an effective starter for the Twins. I will attempt to do this by examining several metrics, and look at raw numbers and data about his pitches. A few years ago (2011) there was an excellent article about Nolasco, by Vince Caramela at The Hardball Times, titled Ricky Nolasco and the Disappearing Curveball. He looked at Nolasco's pitch selection from 2008 to 2010 and concluded that Nolasco does not throw his curveball enough and has replaced it with a slider, which is not as good. Let's take this as a starting point and look at Nolasco's pitch usage in his whole career from 2006-2015. Very Important Note (and this stands for this whole article) : 2007 and 2015 data are based on 21.3 and 37.3 innings pitched only, so they might not be significant. Here is Nolasco's % of each pitch: Clearly Nolasco decreased the use of his curve and started to replace some of its use with a slider beginning in 2008. The year before, he replaced a change up with a split finger fastball. How does this correlate with results? Let's superimpose ERA+ and FIP+ on this graph to see any trends. FIP+? Is there such a beast. I needed something analogous to ERA+ (higher is better), so I used FIP- (lower is better from Fangraphs) and took its mirror image around 100 (ie. 90 FIP- became 110 FIP+). Here is the data: As you can see there is not much correlation of ERA+ (blue) and FIP+ (green) with any individual pitch use and potential replacement of curveball with the slider. If anything, the peaks in ERA+ and FIP+ are in 2008 and 2009, the years he started throwing that slider more and more. Ok. This theory does not seem very true. How about contact? Here is Contanct% off Nolasco in the years with ERA+ and FIP+ No. Nothing there. Contact% has been practically flat, and withing the standard deviation his whole career. How about better contact or more contact or batting average in balls in play (BABIP?) But this is luck. Then how about percent of runners left on base, which also is luck. %LOB fits this scale, but I had to normalize BABIP to something that looks like this (higher more favorable and around 100) so I created something I call BABIP+ : I took BABIP and multiplied by 300 (so it is around 100), but this would make higher less favorable, so this is more like BABIP-, so I did its mirror image around 100, and call it BABIP+. Here we go: As you can see we are getting somewhere. Both Left on Base and BABIP correlate nicely with ERA+ (orange), but not with FIP+ (lighter blue). So why don't we call the beast by its name and make a single metric out of LOB% and BABIP to represent it and see how it correlates with ERA+ Here we have it. Almost perfect correlation of ERA+ with LUCK. And LUCK is LOB% times BABIP+ and divided by 70 to fit in the scale. So we confirmed what we always knew: ERA and his derivatives, like ERA+, have a lot of random causes, especially things outside of the control of the pitcher such as BABIP, LOB% etc (I could have used HR/FB here, too, but there is no point.) So the major reason for Nolasco's performance as measured by ERA+ (and ERA) was luck. How about FIP-based performance, which would actually more importantly tell us what the Twins may expect. Is there anything that correlates well with FIP. Clearly, there is a decline in FIP+ after 2009, with a few peaks, but the moving average is there. There seem to be a couple of things. Enter mystery measurement: Ignore the ERA+ blue line here. We are done with that. This mystery measurement (burgundy) nicely approximates a FIP+ tendency. You can clearly see the peaks in 2008, 2011, 2013 and 2015 and the valleys in 2010 and 2012, but it is much smoother than FIP+. It more like a running average, which could be a very good leading indicator. What is Mystery Measure? Something very simple and has to do with Nolasco's pitch selection: It is the number of his pitches that were not changeups (a pitch he is not throwing any more) or split fingers, a pitch he has been throwing about 10% of the time as his off-speed pitch. If you look at Fangraphs pitch values, this pitch has been below average and ineffective the last 3 seasons. So one of the reasons that Nolasco has has bad years as measured by FIP+, is that his split finger fastball is not a good pitch for him. Abandoning it and maybe replacing it with his curveball, will help him in the future. But how much? FIP is better than ERA, but FIP is not perfect either and the reasons are stated here. My preferred tools in looking at pitcher performance are SIERA, which is also explained in the previous link, and it is a measure close to ERA and FIP scale and direction (lees is better) and PE and xPE, which I devised and are on a different scale and the opposite direction. Bigger is better. They are quickly derived, unlike SIERA, and have a great correlation to SIERA, which makes them easy to use. Here is Nolasco's career performance described by PE and xPE (xPE normalizes PE for league average BABIP, so it is more of a predictive tool than PE). The xPE and PE scale is as follows for starters: 35+ Ace 25+ number 1 or 2 15+ number 2 or 3 10+ number 4 or 5 7.5+ number 5 <7 .5="" level="" p="" replacement=""> Clearly based on PE and xPE (and ERA+ and FIP+ before it, but not as obvious) Nolasco had a career peak from 2008-2010 when he was a top of the rotation starter, and declined afterwards. There was an outlier hickup in 2013, which showed potential for a number 2 (or 3) starter and that was not realized? So I am afraid that the 33 year old Nolasco is in the declining phase of his career reaching his peak at ages 26-28. Here is some additional proof: We are looking at his fastball and slider velocities through his career: As you can see the velocities of the fastball, and especially the slider have been declining. The slope of the decline in the Slider velocity is fascinating so I did this plot: What you see is PE and xPE (both multiplied by 5 for scale) and normalized slider velocity when 2006 is 100. PE and xPE really show clearly Nolasco's career bell curve, with the 2013 aberration, and unlike FIP, do not like his small sample 2016 either. The normalized slider velocity clearly approximates the drop. So additional explanations for Nolasco's performance is that he is in his declining years and his slider is not what used to be. For what is worth, Fangraphs pitch values, shows a considerable effectiveness of his slider in 2013, which definitely explains the bump in performance. In summary: Nolasco has been unlucky. However, he is in the declining phase of his career, is a pitcher who lives and dies with his breaking stuff, because his fastball is an average pitch and his slit finger a bad pitch. As his breaking stuff go, so does Nolasco. He could be better in 2016 if: a. Luck is on his side b. His breaking stuff improves (if there were injury considerations) or no further declines c. He stops throwing his split finger fastball and uses his curve as a change of pace pitch You cannot determine A. B will be a good leading indicator even in Spring Training and C. is totally up to him and his coaches and it is an easy fix.

There are major improvements both in pitch recognition and fielding and throwing that need to be made here. And with Park as the DH and Arcia and Santana needing looks, Walker does not fit the bill. The Twins have higher priorities. He hill get his PAs and fielding time now that the MiLB camp opens. He will have an additional week as a minor leaguer to get ready for the season because that camp breaks later.

What I am saying is that what Papelbon did to Harper is not that much different than what Hunter tried to do to Morneau (and failed and hit Punto). So if one is critical about Papelbon, they better be critical about Hunter...

Maybe we should first make a list of all the free agent pitchers that Ryan has signed, so all of us can be objective on the subject... FWIW, the first pitcher he brought in was Rich Roberson on a waiver claim the second was Vince Horseman as a minor league free agent signing... The first major league free agent he signed was 3 years into the job in 1997: then 36 year old Bob Tewksbury. (I am ignoring the Rick Aguillera tap dance) Second one. Same season. 32 year old Greg Swindell. I can go on and on, but....

I am talking about the fight in the dugout...

How does throwing a teammate under the bus in the media fit in that spectrum? Or the Lombardozzi/Gladden thing? Or the Hunter/Morneau/Punto thing? Papelbon did last year to Harper what Hunter tried to do years ago to Morneau and Punto got it. If you don't like Papelbon about it, you should not like Hunter about it either...

Bet DJ Hicks will be hurt if he looks at this writeup Injuries aside, he can still make it to the show with higher chances than some of the other guys mentioned. LH power bats are not a dime a dozen

FTFY Yes.

Always is long time and memories are short. Mr Perkins had filed a grievance with the Union against the Twins (a lawsuit equivalent), which in my book is a tad more severe thing to do than saying you might ask to be traded if you don't start... Whether he is an overall good or bad person I have no means or wants to judge and it is totally irrelevant in the conversation.

100% agree. But Milone and Duffey have not earned anything as well...

The statement I was discussing was "Perkins was the best closer in the AL when healthy". From the best to very good is ways apart. I would agree that he was very good when healthy. But you know, Nolasco was not healthy too, and if you count Nolasco accountable for his non-healthy appearances, you should count Perkins accountable for his. That's the point. Otherwise you show bias

He chose those stats, along with ERA. Not me. ERA depends on others and is objective and practically worthless. RA is better than ERA but still depends on others. ERA+ is slightly better, but still is ERA based. WHIP is fine as long as it is normalized to a league average BABIP. Nolasco had a Twins' BABIP about .100 higher than Milone. Composite measurements like SIERA are probably the best to compare potential for a pitcher. But he used ERA, K/9 and FIP. Thus the argument.

love this part of the article: LeBron aside in his prime and Beckham aside in his prime, he got the names wrong in the endorsements. I cannot count in how many commercials Payton Manning, and what's his face Green Bay QB guy, and Montana and Marino before them appeared compared to Cam Newton. And as bar as basketball goes, Jordan still selling stuff. Baseball is a local sport and has local endorsements. Maybe not where he grew up. Mauer has been selling everything in the Twin Cities. And some guys like Jeter (and even Palmer, do you remember the underwear commercials?) go nationals. As for his sense of "fashion", no thank you, if those guys are his prototypes. As for "fun" I am all about it, especially if you allow home opposing fans to bring in velzevulas vuvuzelas and blow them while he is at the plate trying to concentrate. Let the fans have some fun. At his expense...

Just for reference: This is what happened when Pelfrey was assigned to the pen at the end of last spring training: From there: FORT MYERS, Fla. — Mike Pelfrey stopped short of asking for a trade Saturday after he was demoted to the bullpen, but the Twins right-hander made it clear he wouldn’t be opposed. “Obviously, if some team realizes I’m healthy for the first time in years,” Pelfrey told the Pioneer Press, “and this is probably the best I’ve felt and thinks I can help them, let’s do it. I think I showed them that I could start. If it happens, great. Let’s go.” and “I know what I was told in December. I don’t know what happened,” Pelfrey said. “I know one thing that didn’t happen is I didn’t get outpitched. I don’t know what happened from what I was told. I was told it was an open competition supposedly, and at the time it was, ‘We’re going to give you an opportunity.’ I don’t know what happened in between.” Same thing. They all do it. Nolasco is not the first one and he will not be the last one who does it. I just hope that Santana is not caught being juiced again...

See what I mean? There is bias Perkins was by far not the best closer in the AL even when healthy (how do you measure that?) For what is worth in the first half Perkins ranked among AL relievers: 3rd BB/9, 4th ERA, 6th WAR, 7th in WHIP, 11th FIP, 20th in SIERA, 23rd xFIP, 38th K/9 Not best by any means. And Nolasco was not healthy last season by any means. Plus, I'd love to see how you predict that unlikely to succeed in the AL bit. Better FIP and K/9 than Milone with the Twins and close to those of E. Santana and Gibson with the Twins. How about their possibilities to succeed in the AL?

Nope. He is a 5+ year veteran thus has the right to refuse that assignment. Then if the Twins don't want him, they can release him and have to pay the full contract $.

Any idea how this compares with some of the rest Twins' starting pitchers? (And I refuse to look at ERA) Look: Milone in his Twins' career: 4.23 FIP, 6.3 K/9 According to your argument, Milone should be even less reliable than Nolasco... Have you checked Nolasco's BABIP in his Twins' career? I cannot believe that the same people who are excusing Perkins for falling apart because of injuries last season are crucifying Nolasco for the same reason... Wonder whether that had happened if Nolasco were the former first round pick from MN and Perkins were the free agent signing from CA...

a. The new team would have to fulfill his current contract b. It is his right as a 5+ year MLB veteran. At that point the Twins have the choice of either keeping him on their 25 man roster or releasing him (and thus have him become a free agent.) In both choices the Twins will have to fulfill his current contract (ie. have to pay him.)

Not quite. As a 5 year + veteran, Nolasco would have to accept assignment. If he does not accept the team has to release him (not him becoming a free agent) and pay him per his contract. So that not up there is wrong. He also has to clear waivers; which he might not and get selected by another team, in which case that team will fulfill his contract He can also retire and nullify his contract like Cuddyer did

Last time I checked he was out of options Let us not kid ourselves... I think that there is little possibility that the last 2 starter positions do not go to Nolasco and Milone. TR's MO since forever: Follow the $

Most of Thome's great hitting was done against the Twins (remember Blackburn's greatest moment?) so I tend to ignore the guy. He is Brett Favre to me

Thomas. As in Clete. Not Thome