Thrylos

One of? All 5 of those should go before next season.

Cheap? Third year of arbitration after a decent season will be close to $3M. For a middle reliever. No. He has to go. Melotakis is cheaper.

Matter of fact, last year and this year are pretty similar if you look at predictive stats like SIERA that look at peripherals. Last year his SIERA was 3.83, this year it is 4.18 (xFIP 3.64 vs 4.02.) His problem has been that his HR/FB rate is 19.3% vs 7.9%, his BABIP .25 point higher (at .340) and his strand rate is 63.6% vs 79.6%. With league normal HR/FB (10%), BABIP (.295) and LOB% (70%), his numbers start to look closer to the ones of last season. His problem even last season has been when his opponents figured out that they can just lay off the curve and wait for the fastball... Got to look beyond the 3.10 vs 6.18 ETA and the 5-1 vs 5-8 record

What happened last night is what happens when you have a pitcher with only one good pitch, that happens not to be a fastball, and that good pitch is not working for him. They laid off the curve and waiting for hitable fastballs. Duffey is not a starting pitcher. He can be a good setup man in the pen, and he should be there. If the Twins have any sense, they will stretch May and switch them

Correct. And that is part of the problem with the Twins. They are looking to help themselves in 5+ years vs the next couple. And it would have not been that much of a problem if they were going after top free agents. Who is better off after the 2012 draft? The Twins or the Mariners?

I thought about that. On the other hand removing those drafts will penalize the teams that drafted players and got help from them already in the majors. The Twins were close last season. Imagine where they would have been if they drafted Alex Wood instead of Melotakis in the second round of 2012 (and I am not even going into Wacha over Buxton,) or Jake Lamb before the Dbacks got him on the 6th round, Kendall Graveman in 2013 before the Jays got him in the 8th round, or one of Nola or Comforto instead of Gordon in 2014. They didn't. They made the choice to draft players who can help them in 4+ years, while they had a horrible team, instead of players who can help them in 1-2 years to turn this thing around quickly. And they should be penalized.

The problem with that approach is that it will be a subjective opinion. Numbers are objective

Actually what is wrong is the assumption that the best players in the draft are the earliest picks. Data: 5 (or so) Highest WARs in draft by drafted position: 2008: 5 (31.6), 135 (18.3), 117 (17.5), 16 (15.2), 96 (14.2) 2009: 25 (44.4), 246 (27.4), 82 (21.9), 63 (18.3), 1 (18.3), 59 (18.0) 2010: 13 (29.4), 3 (22.3), 1 (21.5), 70 (19.2), 23 (12), 272 (11.5) 2011: 172 (13.1), 14 (13.1), 18 (10.3), 11 (9.6), 1 (9.4), 6, (9.1), As a mater of fact, the first picks rarely were among the top 5 players in that draft, and 24 teams, including the Twins, passed on the best player drafted in that time period.

I started looking at all rounds but quickly after the 10th round I got into players who were drafted by one team in that draft and did not sign, drafted by another team and signed with that. I wanted to give credit to the team that did draft and sign the player. Most of the players who are selected in the top 10 rounds (with some exceptions, like Gaussman) sign with their teams. Just a way to minimize manual work looking at whether each player has singed. If I had a database, I could actually do a better job. Very few players who were signed after the 10th round give value, but, you are correct, there are some and teams should get credit for it. I started looking at draft positions (and about half of the teams below the Twins did better than them,) but it gets really complicated when teams were awarded draft picks for type A and type B FAs and, like the Twins in 2008, had 3 first round picks (and they took Hicks, Gutierrez, and Hunt).

better than the Twins if not for their 2009 draft

I just read the title of that post and it seemed like 2007 all over again. Different Santana, same Terry Ryan gone.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----------- As the Minnesota Twins are evaluating their front office, I would like to take the opportunity to objectively evaluate the performance of certain parts of their front office for which there might be appropriate objective evaluation criteria. Deron Johnson, the Twins scouting director since 2008, who came into the organization when the dearly departed Terry Ryan became the General Manager in 1994, as a regional scout, has been primarily responsible for the Rule 4 amateur draft. There is a feeling that the Twins do not draft and develop players well. But drafting and developing are two different things, and need to see how each of them might be performing against the rest of the league. How has Johnson done against the league, in the draft? Here is the data: I looked at the overall WAR for each team for each draft for all players selected by that team in the first 10 rounds of that draft. Calculated the average WAR for each draft and the teams better are indicated with green. The teams are listed alphabetically and the Twins are bolded. Averages in yellow indicate small sample size, because simply not enough players made it to the bigs in the last few seasons to make any conclusions, but the ones who made it, count to the total team WAR numbers, since Deron Johnson was responsible for the Twins draft. Long story short: During the time that Johnson has been in charge of the Twins draft the Twins did better than only 6 other teams in the league: The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and the Rangers who all are willing to open their wallets and buy players drafted and developed by others and, surprisingly, the Rays, who are more than willing to sell everyone high to restock their system with players that other teams drafted to develop. The Twins do neither, so that it a pretty big problem. And yes Deron Johnson has been performing way below average, and D students should go home... Few notes: This is pretty interesting data about where the Twins can look to stock their front office. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks', Padres', Jays', White Sox', and Nationals' systems might be good sources of scouting talent to replace at least Deron and some of his scouts. If it were not for 2009 where Dozier and Gibson account for most of the Twins' WAR, the numbers would be really pathetic. If you look at teams like the White Sox, that have had the fourth best draft WAR in the period and really nothing to show about it in the majors, you can make easy conclusions about problems with their development and management systems Yes, there are up and downs in most teams, but with the Twins other than 2009, it has been mostly downs, and the other teams, have done something about it (replacing under-performing Front Office pieces.) Will the Twins have the guts to do the same?

ill-advised bet I hope that Nick Greenwood and Sean Burnett go away from Rochester for good. That will open 2 spots on that roster. I suspect that one of them goes to Melotakis (and it should. They need a lefty and after returning from his injury, he has been very good.) As far as the other spot goes, check out what Zack Jones has done since returning. So there is competition for spots in Rochester and with people with more seniority than him. As far as making the Twins' roster, lots of things will need to fall in place, including the Twins trading Boshers, Kintzer and Abad, which might or might not happen. And there still will be competition by players already on the 40-man roster, like Chargois and Melotakis and players not on that roster, like Baxendale (check out what he is doing as a reliever in Rochester,) the aforementioned Zack Jones, and even Alex Wimmers. Not.a.good.bet.

Here are my reactions to that bit: a. Kinda sick and tired of the media behaving like Terry Ryan retired and was not fired because of incompetence b. Who cares how nice the guy was, since his teams finished either last or were just not good enough c. Love the title, but I suspect that the author does not quite grab the sarcasm in the phrase "Minnesota Nice" that fits Ryan to a T. d. Double sick of hearing about that contraction story, a contraction that Ryan as a GM architected for his boss. e. I'd love to read a piece that would evaluate Ryan based on actual results vs being "nice" to his buddies f. Wish I could have the Barney soundrack to play while reading that. Perfect backdrop to that article.

"sell Milone" and "Milone's value"? Gee The guy should be Blackburned...

That's why someone should #FireThemAll In a last place team, while notables like Tommy Milone are allowed to show their "craft" every 5 days. I just don't get it. Let him learn by his mistakes. Check out Verlander's career, if you don't believe me.

Polanco as your starting SS for the rest of the season plus someone with a pulse. I'd take that.

Let's see: Miller's career numbers against the AL: 4.60 ERA, 1.438 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 1.88 K/BB Gibson's career numbers: 4.46 ERA, 1.358 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 2.04 K/BB. Plus Miller is on the decline. Plus he is making much more ($4.5M this season, plus a couple more arb seasons.) I think that Gibson is too much. If they want someone else like Nolasco (to balance the $ situation) who is a rebound candidate in the NL, plus a prospect, sure.

Sipp and Bastardo were in the level of Matt Capps when Ryan (over)paid to re-sign him, so it is not like it has not been done in the Twins' organization. Two other things: a. Not going after a closer-type player knowing that Perkins lost 5 mph on both his slider and fastball, is not quite what a decent general manager does. b. Ryan got the following pitchers out of the garbage heap last off-season: Buddy Boshers Brandon Kintzler Fernando Abad David Martinez Dan Runzler Aaron Thompson and then during the season Sean Burnett Neil Ramirez Only the top 3 managed to make it to the majors, and they made it with a last place team. It would be "success", if there is demand for their services by a contending team and they will not go the way of Fien, Boyer, etc, which is usually the Twins' way in these matters... Also, competitors who do not want to go after the Chapmans and the Millers of the world, develop from inside and give their young relievers a chance. The fact that Kintzler is the Twins closer now instead of Chargois and Abad the LH setup guy instead of Melotakis, in a last place team, is inane. So the heap pile, even though it might once a while get them someone who may be serviceable, costs them much more in opportunity...

If Palka were a catcher, instead of a corner OF/1B, or the Twins had a couple MLB-ready options, I would totally agree with is; however he is not.

... after he started a grand total of 2 over the past 5 seasons. If that is true, the GM who makes that decision should go the way of Ryan, because that will be Sano at RF Version 2.0. Polanco is 5'11" (with a couple pairs of cleats on). Not the height for a third baseman. Nunez should be gone this week...

I am listening to the WFAN 660, the NYC sports station and it sounds like a huge possibility that the Yankees will do with Chapman what the Twins did with Aguilera after trading him to Boston, and try to bring him back as a free agent this off-season. Much better return for the Yankees than the equivalent of Frankie Rodriguez and JJ Johnson. A total no-brainer for the Yankees. And if the Cubs win, it it not like they gave anyone up who is not blocked in the majors by young players who can be with them for another decade...

Yeah. I am not sure that it is a win for the Twins. And I think that Palka is great and should be on the Twins' roster by September. Herrmann is probably better than any catcher the Twins currently have above A ball. And, effectively the Twins did not trade Herrmann for Palka. You have to see the trade in the context of the off-season after a season that were close to contending. They traded: Herrmann for JR Murphy and Hicks for Palka Did that trade help them in 2016? Nope. So I don't think that it should be listed among Ryan's high points, esp. if you add the context that he got rid of Hicks who is hitting .301/.346/.508 for Detroit, mostly in AAA and a bit in AA...

Forgot: 2011 A+ .317 2011 AFL .405 2012 AFL .556 2012 Twins .077 and this one: 2013 AAA .292 was with Brunansky as his hitting coach.

Interestingly enough if you look at Herrmann's career BABIP with the Twins organization, up to and including 2012 and in AAA in 2014 (i.e. the seasons he did not have Brunansky as his hitting coach) is not out of line with the above .371 annual. Herrmann at some point was a top-10 Twins' prospect and had a great ability for hitting LDs in both fields.