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PseudoSABR

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Everything posted by PseudoSABR

  1. PseudoSABR
    Oh I think it's obvious that the Twins backed down from their asking price by large margins. I can't imagine the Twins asking for Presley (and whatever pitcher) at all early on; we all hope they asked for much more than that! In my mind the Twins asked for subset A (maybe cash as well), and the Pirates demanded subset B, and cash. For the deal to happen the Twins had to relent in their need for better prospects and the Pirates needed to relent their need for the Twins to pick up the contract.
  2. PseudoSABR
    We really need to get away from the splicing each other's post thing, because it just exclusivizes the thread (I'm probably mostly at fault here). This is my version of the events (filled with supposition and inference, but nothing that defies any of the facts, of which there are very few that illuminate what did happen). 1) Huntington goes to both the Mets and the Twins with offers of the same prospects that end up being dealt and expecting both teams to eat cash as well. 2) The Mets decide to just eat the cash as they like the prospects in the deal, so the deal gets done almost a week ago. 3) The Twins counter with an offer of better prospects if the Pirates want the Twins to eat some cash. 4) The Pirates balk, refusing to offer anything better and unwilling to take the entire contract--that is until the 31st, where Huntington approaches ownership and requests to go over budget. 5)Terry Ryan realizes that he can't get any thing better than the same subset of players the Pirates continue to offer, takes the deal, as underwhelming as it was. Both scenarios fit the facts; it's really a matter of opinion as to which is more likely. Though, of course, we both prefer our own.
  3. PseudoSABR
    It certainly sounds like they won't be calling him up. At least we know players can positively respond to this treatment, and let's not forget how much Dozier struggled in the beginning of the season before he turned it around--so I wouldn't necessarily connect the two events, but rather the lesson to be learned is that some players take more time (in years and in at bats) to develop than the fan base expects or likes.
  4. PseudoSABR
    What the heck was that?
  5. PseudoSABR
    How do minor league playoff rosters work? Can Sano/Rosario etc. get promoted for Rochester's playoff run?
  6. PseudoSABR
    The conclusions you draw from what the GM said is where inference comes in. There's a variety of inferences/conclusions we can draw from "the Twins asking price is too high." Again, we are all starting with the same facts and reading what those facts mean differently; everyone's using reason, no one argument has a strangle hold on logic. No, but sweetening the pot, greasing the wheels, seems to be a more likely role for the paltry sum; maybe it had something to do with Buck's poor season. I don't know why cash was exchanged, but the alternative you offer is far harder to believe: Do you really think that Hunnington would give up a better prospect for 250K? I just don't think the Pirates are as stupid/cheap as you'd have us believe. I use the same facts as you (again drawing different conclusions). The main fact that I have is that the Pirates ownership gave them a flexible budget--in light of that fact, it seems totally foolish for the Pirates to give up a better prospect to save some money (when ownership did not require them to do so).
  7. PseudoSABR
    Logic is a two way street, it's just as likely that the Pirates caved given that the trade happened on the final day. We are both using inference, to different conclusions, from the same set of facts. We know that the Pirates owner expanded their budget, I will continue to contend that it would have been foolish for the Pirates to take cash and give something more of value in light of such budget flexibility. (Again the Pirates have to be stupid to ignore the budget flexibility and give in to the Twins demands. I don't buy it.) We don't know that the cash had any bearing in the prospects obtained. The money is so little and the dollar-cost of the players is so little that it would be very foolish for the Pirates to cave into the demands. (Again the Pirates would have to be stupid, to sell out for 250K. I don't buy it.) Look, we all have our different versions of the most likely scenario. We're basing it off supposition not fact. For instance, part my thinking is, if the Twins were so worried about 2 million, why didn't they ship off Willingham for Avery and save 8 million? We don't know the story about the 250k, my guess is that the amount is so paltry, that the Mets just threw it in to get the deal done early. (Again the Pirates asking for 250k and willingly giving up better prospects requires them to be stupid. I don't buy it.)
  8. PseudoSABR
    Well, the reports (and they are just that, reports, not facts) said money was an issue, but we don't know to what extent; if the Pirates are offering Presely and some pitcher AND expecting the Twins to eat the contract, well it's easy to understand why the Twins wouldn't do that. And if the Twins were expecting a better prospect if they kicked in money, it's easy to see why the Pirates didn't do that. The only way the-Twins-too-cheap-to-get-a-good-prospect scenario works is if BOTH GMs try to out-cheap each other rather than trying to maximize talent. There's simply a better side to be on in the cash verse talent equation. I understand that the Mets paid some of the contracts, but we don't know that lead to them getting better talent. If that's the case, well that's cheap and dumb of the Pirates in my opinion. I think it's more likely that giving up Cash would have probably accelerated the deal, rather than changing the parts involved. It's also worth noting that Byrd alone has more value than Morneau. It was also a mere 250K that changed hands. You really think 250k buys a better prospect? I don't even think 2 million buys you a better prospect.
  9. PseudoSABR
    In the very post you quote I mention that nearly all us are working without facts, we are speculating. Phrases like "For all we know..." and "We don't really know, so it's hard to draw conclusions" point to that. Everyone continues to ignore how little sense it makes for the Pirates to take money from the Twins and give away a better prospect. I just don't think that option was ever on the table. Though, I imagine if the Twins kicked in money, the same deal would have gotten done quicker.
  10. PseudoSABR
    Here's TR clarifying:
  11. PseudoSABR
    Hadn't seen this here yet. Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino Terry Ryan would not confirm Duke Welker as the PTBN and said the Pirates will choose the player from an agreed-upon list.
  12. PseudoSABR
    You're just speculating. This isn't a fact. For all we know, the Pirates GM, having all the leverage, could have offered no more than the same package (Presley and Welker) AND demanded the Twins kick in for the contract. On the day of Morneau's lowest money cost, absorbing his contract perhaps became palatable to ownership and the Pirates actually gave the Twins what they wanted. We just don't really know, so it's hard to draw conclusions. Money may have been an issue, but it doesn't mean that the Pirates were willing to give anything more of value. Why would the Pirates give up better prospects when they could ask their ownership to go over budget? Why isn't it possible for TR to say, "Hey, we'll pay Morneau's contract, but we want a better player." And for Hunnington to respond, "No, ****ing way," knowing he could get ownership to take the contract as the deadline approached. In the scenario's where the Twins pass up a better prospect requires the Pirates to be the dumb/cheap ones. I just don't buy it.
  13. PseudoSABR
    Who's to say Thomas, Mastroianni, and Presley are redundant, when you can have them in the same stating outfield?!
  14. PseudoSABR
    We actually don't know if there was any other offer. I find it far more prudent for the Neil Huntington to ask the owner for more money than to give away a better prospect. Why the heck would the Pirates include a better prospect when their owner was willing to pay Morneau's contract? If the situation were reversed and the Twins were acquiring a veteran talent for the pennant race, would you want them to include a better prospect so they could save a couple of million at most? Of course not.
  15. PseudoSABR
    I draw that exact opposite conclusion. The cost of NOT going over budget (the better prospect) was too much to overcome. Once the increase in budget was granted, the Pirates GM would be foolish to give over a better prospect when his boss said he can spend what he needs to. In either case, everyone's making inferences, and it's only a matter of opinion which inferences are more well-reasoned. For my part, the notion that the Twins could have had a worthwhile prospect by eating money is bunk.
  16. PseudoSABR
    Look, I actually don't care for the trade; I just don't get the outrage. Huh? Again, the Pirates have just as much reason to want to pay Morneau's salary as we do (they want to keep their good prospects too!). Reason is a two way street, and you hardly have a it in exclusivity. Ryan can and does plenty of wrong. I don't even care for the trade and would have just liked to have seen Morneau finish the season. On the other hand, I need actual evidence before I can begin to speculate that Ryan actual did wrong; you're just speculating. I need facts before I can get worked up about the return from a one month rental of a mediocre first baseman. I'm not sure why it's so hard to accept that this is all Morneau was worth, as sad as it is. It's meh, and probably has very little to do with the competence or cheapness of the FO.
  17. PseudoSABR
    Well if you had some actual tangible evidence that the Twins could have had a better deal if they ate some cash, I'd put some stock in what you say, but really it's difficult for me not see your admitted bias at work.
  18. PseudoSABR
    So guys like Miguel Sulbaran, Trevor May, and Alex Meyer just don't exist for you? The Twins take a variety of approaches when targeting players, but they don't avoid high upside guys that come with some risks, nor are they afraid of taking a chance on some later bloomers (Welker and Presley have actually produced good numbers in AAA, even if older).
  19. PseudoSABR
    Who's to say there was any other deals out there? This is the same FO that turned Butera into a top 20 guy, and refused to give away Willingham...
  20. PseudoSABR
    So many Twins fans are so bitter after losing for so long that it's far easier to believe that the FO is incompetent (or cheap) rather than that Morneau just didn't have much value.
  21. PseudoSABR
    So now they have negative value? You're not being fair to the players here. Plenty of players, especially, strikeout relief pitchers emerge in their late 20s. While top 20 arms in low-A are fun to dream on, guys like these two probably statistically make a more significant impact.
  22. PseudoSABR
    The 2.265M has the same significance to both teams. Why would the Pirates accept a discounted Morneau when they have to give up more talent? It makes just as little sense for them to do it, especially given that ownership didn't give them any budget restraints.
  23. PseudoSABR
    Opted? As if there were better options to be had and he willing took the lesser option? Sure, I would have been okay with Morneau finishing the season, but the Twins got some filler going forward. Escobar and Hernadez produced more for us than Liriano did for the Whitesox, let's see how this plays out, before we start calling for TR's job.
  24. PseudoSABR
    May with a mixed bag, but still encouraging start. Seven innings, with four earned runs (six hits, four doubles), but ten strikeouts and just one walk. Sano with a triple.
  25. PseudoSABR
    You don't know that. The Pirates could have happily eaten the contract so they didn't have to give up a better prospect. It makes sense for each side to insist on eating the contract so as to maximize talent.
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