PseudoSABR
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More smoke?
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Mere regression towards the mean would net the Twins 70 something wins. -
Interesting read on the former MI6 agent who wrote the dossier on Russia and Trump, suggesting that the FBI ignored investigating Trump during the summer prior to the election. It also looks swell guy Michael Flynn made as many as five calls to Russians on the day sanctions were announced. Still, without a smoking gun, I fear all this smoke will get smoldered out and forgotten before long by the public.
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There's risk in holding onto Dozier, but not to the extent you're implying. That Dozier has had long stretches of poor play insulates the negative effect of a bad start in 2017. Dozier is a known streaky hitter--a poor start would fall in line with prior seasons where's proved very productive overall, and immensely so over his hot streaks. In any case, because of his streakiness, I imagine that Dozier is already being valued with 2016 being somewhat of an outlier. Further, that Dozier is a veteran his value is far more stable than that of De Leon, much less a pitching prospect who has nothing left to prove at the minor league level. An injury, or poor start for De Leon is far more damaging to his value, than it is for Dozier's. The Dodger's also take on substantial risk by not dealing De Leon and not making a place for him in the rotation. De Leon's value as a trade-piece is at its apex without sustained major league success.
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Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins
PseudoSABR replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I don't really care how many people or who specifically endorses which side, but to have two senior writers at fangraphs (reasonable evidenced-oriented people) disagree about the merits of a potential trade should demonstrate there's a range of reasonable attitudes to have about that trade. -
Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins
PseudoSABR replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'd like to see/hear Sullivan and Cameron debate the De Leon/Dozier trade. -
What precisely are you hearing? And from who? I seriously doubt Trump would pick liberals, but he certainly could pick Justices that aren't social conservatives, but are very pro-globalization, anti-labor, etc.
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I don't think there's enough there-there for anything to come of this much less stick on Trump in some damaging way. Until we have credible evidence of what compromising information the Russians have on Trump or what benefit Trump promised the Russians to withhold that info, it's much ado about nothing I'm afraid.
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So you really believe there's a connection between why the Johan Santana trade failed to bear fruit and the current front office's unwillingness to trade Dozier for what the Dodgers are offering?
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Indeed. There's a lot of risk in not dealing him now, as I suggested, it's unlikely his value will be higher. However, if Dozier is the team's chief asset to use towards their rebuild, dealing him in as poor a market as imaginable is also fraught with risk, no? Given the risk on both sides, there's hardly an 'easy' or 'obvious' choice for the Twins to make.
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It's too bad that this curse pervades even through regime change. I guess the Twins should self-contract to save us fans more misery?
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Although Dozier's trade value is unlikely to ever be higher, it's also hard to imagine that demand for his services will ever be lower. If the Twins walk away, it's probably less of a 'failure' and more a result of muted and limited market.
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No surprise on the reversal on the wall. I'm honestly surprised (and I shouldn't be) how many anti-establishment, anti-corruption Trump supporters are totally gun-ho about Russia and Trump's uber-elite cabinet picks. Trump could nominate Clinton for a cabinet position and his supporters would somehow still find a way to stand behind him. It's scary how entrenched so many Americans are.
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Well I think however we might speculate to answer that question, such answers would probably be guided by our initial assumptions. So it becomes an exercise in confirmation bias. I think many recent phenomenons (from brexit/trump to terrorism (both lonewolf and radical islam)) find their base and their fervor within a deep-seated dissatisfaction with modern life and globalization. I think as a global society we've done more to give resources like clean water and modern medicine, but those resources merely extend life, they don't make life worth living. Literacy is both a powerful tool to free one self, and to maintain false narratives and oppressive regimes. All that said, I tend to understand our society on a spectrum of maturity, where I see our civilization in adolescence (short term thinking, tribalism, etc. etc.); and I do have hope for the future, but my hope is premised on our ability to recognize and implement systemic change (esp. in regard to our global economic structure/system).
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I think the first world problems angle cuts both ways. Are tribal populations really better off in the globalized environment? I think our Native American neighbors may disagree with the whole world is better off. Are people happier? Living in less fear and worry? Find as much meaning in their lives? Yes, these are abstract questions, but ultimately matter to every person.
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Interesting tidbit from Nick Carfardo:
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Twins Request Final Offers For Dozier
PseudoSABR replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You really think the Twins went to the press before going directly to the Dodgers? I don't. I also seriously doubt that a new regime would try to game other clubs through the media; I think that's more projection than interpretation of the facts we actually know. -
Look, I'm not denying anything. You're the one saying that history somehow puts Israel in the position that it shouldn't be criticized for settlements. I don't think recent (esp. the entire) history puts Israel beyond reproach. My stance: pressure Israel to stop settlements. Settlements are designed to dilute the Islamic culture in occupied lands, and will only exacerbate the culture of violence on both sides.
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I still don't get how this is relevant in judging Israel for settling 20-years later. Even if Palestine was unreasonable 20 years ago, it does nothing to justify Israel's current settlement practice. You're just hiding the ball, by focusing on Palestine, and giving Israel a complete pass. It's odd really.
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Turns out Mattie Friedman may not be the paragon of honesty that you're offering him up as. The AP issued a statement, saying that Friedman's "... arguments have been filled with distortions, half-truths and inaccuracies, both about the recent Gaza war and more distant events. His suggestion of AP bias against Israel is false". (Source: 1, 2).
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This is a dishonest characterization. There's nothing peaceful about offering to compromise with your right hand (20 years ago), and than promoting settlement with your left hand (both in the past and presently).
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Speaking of false equivalencies: Egypt and Palestine. Surely you see the difference in leverage and consequences of any agreement between Israel and Egypt and Israel and Palestine. Should Tibet be heartened that China has a peaceful and economic relationship with Japan? Give me a break.
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Right. If you just ignore their current settlement policy (and the right-wing makeup of their government). You're simply picking and choosing which historical events to buttress your ideological bias in favor of Israel. Good ole confirmation-bias. Shamelessly accusing those who disagree with you of something stinky? Good lord, indeed.
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Shame? As if you have the humility to imagine such a concept. I don't need to guess, but I can speculate. We'd be naive not to believe that rhetoric exists on both sides. For instance some sources for Zionist extremism (a Palestinian version of events, Jewish religious terrorism; the Lehava group; documentary on Ultra Zionists, article on the film); I tend not to want to google-research this too extensively (for obvious reasons). Heck, given the current political climate in our own country that just buoyed the election of Trump, it's stupid to not believe in Western extremism that's boundless in its desired ends.
