Karbo

With Kyle Garlick being dfa'd and Gilberto Celestino being far from reliable, who should the Minnesota Twins have as their bench outfielder? Free agent options such as A.J. Pollock and Andrew McCutchen have signed elsewhere; options are becoming thin for the Twins. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are available, but both are 34 years old and could be nearing the end of their time in the Big Leagues. I want to look at one option still in-house that could fill this role for 2023 that would be a practical choice for Minnesota; Max Kepler. 
Cover Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Yes, I am aware that Kepler hits left-handed. However, Kepler held his own against lefties in 2022; he had a 98 wRC+ in left-on-left matchups. I don't think a right-handed bat is as big of a need as the presumption is; Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should all serve as plus bats against left-handed pitching. It seems inevitable that the Twins will trade Kepler this offseason, but if they don't, there is no reason he can't be a very serviceable outfielder off the bench. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton have all missed significant time the last two seasons due to injuries, so the Twins should be cautious to pencil in any of those guys for 150+ games. Kepler provides elite defense in RF, amassing a very impressive 46 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 51 OAA (outs above average) throughout his career; he should be comparable in LF as well. Kepler has also held his own in CF throughout his career. In just over 1,100 innings in CF, he has recorded 2 DRS and 8 OAA in his time there. Certainly a few steps below Buxton, but nobody is at that level.  
The frustration with Kepler from Twins fans has not come from his defense. Many point to a low batting average as a sign that Kepler has been an underwhelming hitter, but I do not believe that is the case. While not reaching the heights his batted ball data would suggest he is capable of, Kepler gives value in other ways at the plate. He borders on having both elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. This shows with Kepler ranking in the 88th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in BB% in 2022. He was also tied with Yordan Alvarez for 17th in BB/K rate among hitters with 400 plate appearances. 
Kepler could make some batted-ball adjustments as well. According to Statcast, in 2022, Kepler's ground ball% was 46.6% (league average 44.9%), a massive 8.9% jump from 37.7% in 2021. His flyball% dropped to 24.5%, down from 28.1% in 2021 (league average 23.1%), his lowest flyball% since 2017. As I'm sure you are familiar, Kepler is a very pull heavy hitter, ranking in the 74th percentile in pull% among hitters with 250 plate appearances in 2022 despite this being his lowest pull% since 2017. Unfortunately pulling ground balls is one of the least effective ways to get hits. In 2019, Kepler had his second-lowest career ground ball% at 35.9% and his highest career flyball% at 29.8%; if Kepler starts hitting the ball in the air again instead of on the ground, there may be a lot more room for improvement. 
I don't think Kepler should be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but that's what he has been for the last few years on the Twins. In part because of a career year in 2019 and in part due to necessity because of injuries. Throughout his Major League career, Kepler has taken over two-thirds of his plate appearances in one of the top 5 spots in the lineup despite being only a 101 wRC+ hitter. If Kepler is hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup, he is a much better fit. Even last season, a down year by almost all metrics, Kepler finished with a 95 wRC+, five percent worse than the league average. It is important to mention injuries got to him as well, as he put up a 116 wRC+ in the first half of the season and a 33 wRC+ in the second half, where he was playing much of it through foot and wrist injuries. Kepler can consistently put together quality at-bats and is very capable of hard contact; this makes for an ideal fit for a bench player who can play every day if (when) someone gets injured. 
I want to touch on a very underrated part of Kepler's game; his base running. Only once in his career has Kepler had a negative BsR season by Fangraphs, and it was in 2019 when he had his best season at the plate. I do think there is more base-stealing upside for Kepler. Although he only has 33 career stolen bases, hitting more toward the bottom of the lineup could make him more willing to run. He will not have hitters like Nelson Cruz or Carlos Correa hitting behind him, making the risk of stealing less penalizing. He does have 64th percentile sprint speed and stole ten bases in 2021. Under the right conditions, I think he has 20 SB potential. 
In totality, it seems that it is only a matter of time until Max Kepler is no longer a Twin. Still, it is worth considering the possibility of reducing his role and hanging onto him. For one, he is already under contract for 7 million, the same amount as A.J. Pollock received and only two million more than Andrew McCutchen. Kepler is a much better player than either of those two at this point in their careers. He has a team option for 10 million in 2024 as well. Kepler has been a remarkably consistent player year to year for the Twins, never having a season below 2.0 fWAR and never having a season below 93 wRC+. For reference, Nick Gordon impressed many people last year but only put up 1.5 fWAR in 2022. While frustrations have grown watching him hit in the middle of a lineup undeservingly, it's not fair to fault Kepler for that. If he can serve as a fourth outfielder and hit more toward the bottom of the lineup, I think Kepler still has a place on the Minnesota Twins this year and next. If they can land a good return for him, the front office will not hesitate to pull the trigger, but they shouldn't treat him as a salary dump. He isn't making very much, and he still has a skillset to help a team win games.
 

The Minnesota Twins have recently re-signed Carlos Correa if you have yet to hear. Re-sparked trade rumors surrounding Max Kepler and Luis Arraez are swirling. I understand packaging these two players to acquire a high-end starting pitcher. I would have to be mesmerized by a deal to trade Arraez. His abilities and skillset are too unique.
Here are the top 10 comparisons on baseball-reference.com and when they played Major League Baseball.
Fred Tenney (1894 – 1909 and 1911)
Jo-Jo Moore (1930 – 1941)
Roger Bresnahan (1897 and 1900 – 1915)
Ethan Allen (1926 – 1938)
Arnold Statz (1919 – 1928)
Sam West (1927 – 1942)
Tony Gwynn (1982 – 2001)
Jim O'Rourke (1872 – 1893)
Gene Robertson (1919 – 1930)
Rich Rollins (1961 – 1970)
Of the ten players listed, three are Hall of Famers, and one, Tony Gwynn, is considered by many to be one of the purest hitters of the 1980s and 1990s.
Let's also notice each of these player comparisons eras. Some, like Jim O'Rourke, played in the Pre-1900 era when overhand pitching became legalized in 1872. The rules we understand today were absent when Jim O'Rouke played. 
Others like Fred Tenney and Roger Bresnahan played in the Dead Ball Era between 1901-1920, when spitballs were allowed, and they used one ball per game. Fred Tenney and Roger Bresnahan probably could not even see the ball after their first at-bat.
Players like Jo-Jo Moore, Ethan Allen, Arnold Statz, Sam West, and Gene Robertson played in the Live Ball Era, which began in the 1920s and saw an increase in home runs and changes in the baseball ball used. 
Rich Rollins played in the Expansion Era when the number of teams in MLB expanded from 16 to 24.
And then there is Tony Gwynn. Compare Tony Gwynns and Luis Arraez through their age-25 season.
Luis Arraez: 

 
Tony Gwynn: 

If Luis Arraez has more plate appearances, he is right with Tony Gwynn for hits. Tony Gwynn had 559 hits in 1889 plate appearances. Arraez checks in with 444 hits in 1569 place appearances. 
When comparing Arraez to these players, it's clear that there's something very unique about him. Is he a unicorn in the modern game, and we have not seen a hitter like him not named Tony Gwynn since nearly the turn of the century? 
Is his skill set not well suited for the modern game, and he won't be able to sustain being the same player in the future? In other words, is his value at its all-time high?
Wouldn't it be fun to find out exactly what we are seeing? Is it Tony Gwynn 2.0 or Rich Rollings 2.0? Like everything in life, it's probably somewhere in between, but I want to watch it play out in a Twins uniform.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out. 

For months, there has been speculation that the Twins may trade Luis Arraez to bolster their rotation. The Twins need at least one controllable starter as they will lose three starters to free agency next season and could definitely use rotation help in 2023.
There are some baseball reasons to trade Arraez, as the Twins have a surplus of left-handed hitters who play corner positions in the infield and outfield. Bringing back Correa makes the infield even more crowded, and the looming additions of Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis make trading Arraez very reasonable on paper. 
However, if the Twins trade Luis Arraez, the price has to be right. Beyond his fantastic hitting and solid defense at first, Arraez means so much to the fanbase and clubhouse. If the Twins pull the trigger on an Arraez trade, it must bring back a true frontline starter. Otherwise, you're not getting nearly enough for such a special player and person. 
Arraez the Guy
Luis Arraez is fun. Fans love him, and his teammates seem to as well. He plays the game with vigor and joy, and his at bats are appointment-viewing. 
You could see his teammate's support for him when he was named an all-star, as they all celebrated with him and were thrilled to enjoy his moment with him. Like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, he is at the heart and soul of this team. 
We’ve seen the front office emphasize character more since their failed signings of Lance Lynn and Josh Donaldson. Trading Arraez would be a costly departure from that emphasis. 
Arraez, while fun and joyful, is also the consummate professional who, in any interview, will emphasize that, while he enjoys his individual accolades, his top priority is helping the team win. 
The Twins' sparkplug isn't all talk, either. Arraez has shown a terrific work ethic during his time with the Twins. In fact, as I write this, he is in the Dominican Republic working on his craft with Nelson Cruz, which you can occasionally watch on Cruz’s Instagram. This work ethic has been vital in establishing himself as a premier hitter in the league after being overlooked as a prospect. 
This work ethic and baseball savvy enabled him to find a comfortable home at first base in 2022. Despite being small in stature for a first baseman, he was well above average there in 2022 by Defensive Runs Saved. That is extremely impressive because he had never played first base in the majors before that. His success at first base defensively is a testament to his willingness to do what he needs to do to help the Twins win. 
Arraez's character is exceptional, and the Twins will miss it if they trade him. 
Arraez the Ballplayer
Beyond the person, Luis Arraez, the player, is awesome. From his aforementioned first base defense to his batting title, he was hugely productive for the Twins in 2022. 
Arraez fulfilled his dream of winning a batting title and played in his first career All Star Game. We don’t always put that much value into those accomplishments alone in 2023, but advanced metrics confirm that he had a great season. 
The fan-favorite accumulated 3.2 fWAR and a wRC+ of 131, which means he was a 31% above league-average hitter. These topline numbers underscore a terrific player that any team would be lucky to have. Not only that, Fangraphs' Steamer projects him to just about repeat those numbers, projecting a 3.1 fWAR and 126 wRC+ 2023 season.
Digging deeper, Arraez tailed off in the second half of 2022 with a wRC+ of 106. His hamstring ailments, which could be an issue moving forward, held him back. On the flip side, his first-half performance, where he put up a 150 wRC+, indicates that a healthy Arraez can be an elite hitter.
Further, Arraez is your man with runners in scoring position. Arraez hit an unbelievable .366 with RISP in 2022. Success with RISP isn't usually indicative of future performance in these spots, but Arraez's success makes sense, given his approach.
To be clear, Arraez is not a perfect player. He has struggled to stay healthy, can only really play first base, and is a league-average hitter against lefties. 
These limitations are legitimate issues with Arraez, but his distinct style is helpful on a team that values slugging as much as the Twins. Beyond just his unusual style for the modern game, Arraez has been highly productive by any metric and should be coveted as a player. 
Arraez's Futrue with the Twins
Like everybody in Major League Baseball, everybody has a price that can be paid to trade for their services. In Arraez’s case, that price should be extremely high, and they should be asking for more than Pablo López, who the Twins reportedly have a strong interest in acquiring. 
If they are adamant about trading Arraez for a starting pitcher, they should bundle Arraez and a couple of good prospects to get a true frontline starter. It’s hard to predict trades, but some guys who could be available if they went that route could be Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen, or Nestor Cortes. 
We will see if any pitchers of that caliber become available before spring training, and if they do, the Twins would be sensible to trade Arraez for a true frontline starter. They cannot trade him for anything less. Before pulling the trigger on any Arraez trade, the front office must take stock of what he means to the fanbase and clubhouse, on and off the field.  
 

I believe that injuries to outfielders could be greatly reduced if the outfield padding at Target Field were replaced with high tech padding.  
One option would be to replace the existing padding with much thicker padding that has a layer of low density foam on the outside (facing the players) and thicker densities closer to the concrete wall. I have a mattress that came in a box that has this arrangement and believe that this approach could be adapted to baseball to cut the trauma from hitting the wall by 80% or more.
Or the Twins could borrow from Hollywood stunt people and use technology based on the air bags and crash mats that lets stunt people fall from high places without injury.  https://fall-pac.com/news/fall-protection-for-stunt-men/
Based on some rough math, I believe that for $500,000 of R&D, $1 million of manufacturing cost and $500,000 of installation costs, the Twins could have an outfield wall that could cut the injury rate by more than 50%, perhaps more than 90%.  This would be peanuts compared with the loss of value if Buxton gets injured on the current wall.  To me this is a lot like adding roll cages to race cars -- a small cost for a lot of safety.  
What value of WAR will be lost if Buxton gets injured by the wall?  And I firmly believe that Royce Lewis would not have been hurt at all last year by his wall collision if the high tech wall had been in place.  
One small side benefit would be a slight home field advantage -- balls that hit the padding would tend to stick and die there, not bounce back into the field of play.  The Twins players would develop expertise in dealing with that.  Players from other teams would have to learn how to adapt, like with the ivy at Wrigley.  Another side benefit would be that players could be more aggressive when they are near the wall, knowing that it is by far the safest wall on the planet.
I believe that eventually all teams will have this.  Why not get out in front of it and maybe even develop some patents to make other teams pay to get it?
 
 
 

Per Reports, the Twins have signed Carlos Correa to a 6 year, $200 million deal. The deal includes vesting options. 
 
502 plate appearances in year 6 - $25 million dollars for year 7. 
Total value can increase to $245 million if an 8th year happens. 
 
This is per Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN. 
 
Reminder - This is pending a physical. 
 
What do people think?

We've reached the point in the offseason where the free agent market has dried up and - aside from Correa - there's no one left for the Twins to target.  If the Twins are looking to upgrade their roster prior to opening day, they will have to turn to the trade market. The front office of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made numerous trades over the past couple of years, with mixed results. Giving up an aging Nelson Cruz to acquire Joe Ryan turned out to be an instant success. On the other hand, the acquisition of Emilio Pagan and Chris Paddack has been anything but. Given the amount of trades over the past five years, one of the most influential deals has flown under the radar: the 2018 Eduardo Escobar trade. 
Coming off of 2017, in which the Twins snuck into the wildcard after beating out the weak American League, the Twins looked to improve upon a young core consisting of players such as Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios. After the Twins got off to a poor start, they were not able to recover and found themselves sellers at the trade deadline. After all was said and done, the Twins traded Brian Dozier, Ryan Pressley and of course, Eduardo Escobar. 
In return for Escobar, the Twins received 3 players out of high A ball: 22 yr old Ernie De La Trinidad, 19 yr old Gabriel Maciel and 20 yr old Jhoan Duran.
At the time of the trade, Escobar was slashing .274/.338/.514 with an OPS+ of 129. With his defensive flexibility, he also provided the Diamondbacks with some much needed infield depth. Despite never taking the Diamondbacks to the playoffs, Escobar was solid during his time there. 
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2018 29 ARI NL 54 223 198 30 53 11 0 8 21 1 1 18 35 .268 .327 .444 .772 102 88 5 2 0 5 2 5/H   2019 30 ARI NL 158 699 636 94 171 29 10 35 118 5 1 50 130 .269 .320 .511 .831 111 325 8 3 0 10 3 *54/HD   2020 31 ARI NL 54 222 203 22 43 7 3 4 20 1 0 15 41 .212 .270 .335 .605 63 68 5 2 0 2 4 *5/D4   2021 32 ARI NL 98 400 370 50 91 14 3 22 65 1 0 29 85 .246 .300 .478 .778 107 177 1 0 0 1 1 54/H6 Over the course of roughly four years, Escobar posted a 102 OPS+ and a WAR of 5.6
Now on to the Twins.
Ernie De La Trinidad played in the Twins organization until 2021 and reached AA. Gabriel Maciel also played in the Twins organization until 2021 and reached A+ ball. 
As for Jhoan Duran, he was arguably the most beneficial player for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. 
Before looking at his stats, it's hard to miss his stuff. His fastball was the fastest in the MLB, averaging 100.8 MPH and topped out at 103.8. His famous "splinker" was also the fastest in the league at 96.4 MPH. On top of that, his 88 MPH curve held opposing batters to just a .120 batting average and has gotten a swing and a miss almost 50% of the time. 
As you dive into his underlying metrics, it just keeps getting better. 

His chase rates and K% are elite with 89 strikeouts over 67.2 innings pitched. Duran has also done an incredible job at throwing strikes with just 16 and a 2.1 BB/9. His chase% and whiff% are both 10% above league average. 
Duran excelled at keeping batter's exit velocity and barrel percentage low, as well as forcing a groundball more than 60 percent of the time. All of this allowed for Duran to have great home run rates, something the Twins struggled with in 2022. 
As a team, the Twins' bullpen ranked 18th in win probability added at +1.26. Duran alone had a +4.56 WPA, good for second out of all relivers this past year. While it may be hard to quantify, it's no understatement to say that Duran singlehandedly kept the bullpen afloat this past year. 
In terms of overall value, Duran had a 1.5 Fwar, which Fangraphs valued at 12 million dollars. In comparison, Eduardo Escobar posted a 4.9 Fwar during his time in Arizona. It is important to note that the Twins have Duran through at least the 2027 season and he should be a prime candidate for an extension. The Diamonbacks however, got less than four years with Escobar before trading him to the Brewers. 
While it is difficult to directly compare Escobar and Duran because of their different positions, the overall value and talent that Jhoan Duran will provide to the Twins seems likely to greatly exceed what Escobar provided to the Twins. 

Fan morale is at a low, and a part of that is the front office and their lack of spending and big moves. But when they make a move that clearly worked out for them, it is important to recognize and acknowledge it. 
Because of them, we get to watch Duran pitch for the next five years.  

Two and a half weeks after Carlos Correa agreed to terms with the Mets, he remains a free agent, and the Twins now seem to be re-entering the fray opportunistically. As the rumors of the Twins' serious renewed interest emerged this weekend, many Twins fans expressed that they no longer desire an improbable Correa-Twins reunion.
There are a few common arguments Twins fans against Twins pursuing a long-term deal with Correa use: he “wasn’t special in 2022,” he doesn’t want to be in Minnesota and is just “using us,” and that he’s a “damaged good.” Those arguments are all wrong or flawed.
Correa wasn’t that Good in 2022
This argument is the least common, but I’ve seen it enough that I had to address it. It’s an argument that largely hinges on batting average and RBIs, which we know are not great measures of offensive production. There is also a somewhat accurate perception that Correa wasn’t very “clutch” in 2022.
By any measure, Correa was awesome in 2022. Correa put up a 4.4 fWAR, 5.4 bWAR, and 140 wRC+- which means he was a 40% above league average hitter. That's a superstar, especially considering he plays a premium position very well and was the platinum glove winner in 2021.
Beyond his outstanding performance in 2022, Correa is projected to be even more productive in 2023, with Fangraphs steamer projecting him to put up a 5.7 fWAR season in 2023.
While these numbers are great, some Twins fans claim he wasn’t that clutch. That is partially true. His wRC+ with runners in scoring position in 2022 was 109, much lower than his outstanding 140 wRC+ on the season, but still 9% above league average. He also put up a 1.26 Win Probability Added, meaning that based on his situational production, he added 1.26 wins for the Twins in 2022.
If none of these advanced metrics do it for you and you still care more about RBI, Correa is 6th all-time in postseason RBI and is the active leader, 10 RBI ahead of Jose Altuve. That’s pretty good! Let’s hope he can add to his total as a Twin in 2023.
Sometimes it takes a deep dive to evaluate a player's production. That shouldn't be the case with Correa, but I hope my short analysis clarifies what should be obvious: Carlos Correa is an excellent ballplayer.
He’s Using the Twins/Doesn’t Want to be Here
I do not care if he might use the Twins for leverage in his Mets negotiations. A free agent is "using the Twins" until they are not. There's no way for the Twins to know if he is or isn't using them for leverage.
The only way to find out a free agent's intentions is to enter the negotiations in good faith and make strong offers, which the Twins reportedly did this weekend.
Now, there are two ways this could go. One way is that he signs with the Twins for around nine years and $275 million. Great. The Twins have signed a player with the early makings of a Hall of Fame resume, and he will play the remainder of his career in Minnesota.
This outcome could be an issue if a player who is unhappy to be in Minnesota doesn’t buy in and is just upset about how free agency went. We've seen that be an issue before, as Minnesota is rarely players' number-one destination in free agency.
These concerns are unfounded with Correa. By all accounts, Correa was a great teammate and member of the organization in 2022. This was on essentially a one-year deal after his free agency was a huge disappointment. So, we have to imagine that his leadership and “buy-in” would be as good or even better after signing to be with the Twins for the rest of his career.
Alternatively, and far more likely, the Twins' offer will allow Correa to get more money from the Mets or more favorable terms around his ankle injury. That outcome is acceptable too. Given how great he was as a leader and teammate in 2022, I’m happy for the Twins to help him to get a better deal, and I won’t be sad about him holding Steve Cohen’s feet to the fire, either.
Either way, the Twins re-engaging and maybe "being used" is completely fine. Hopefully, it results in him signing with the Twins, but the alternative that he gets a better deal does not negatively affect the Twins at all.
Damaged Good
First off, no baseball player is a damaged good. They are baseball players, but they are also human beings. They are not goods.
It is, however, extremely reasonable to be concerned about the Twins potentially signing long-term a player whose medicals have caused two big market teams to rethink their major free agent signing. I am especially sympathetic to this argument, given how injuries derailed the 2022 season.
The Twins saw his medical last year, though. And while they weren’t evaluating his ankle for a long-term deal, they should at least have some idea of what is going on with his ankle. Given that he missed no time for the injury in 2022, it’s hard to imagine the situation has changed that much. If the repaired ankle has deteriorated, the Twins will at least be able to see an MRI before actually signing Correa.
I am also hopeful that with a new training staff that will bring a new approach, the Twins generally will manage injuries better and have fewer and shorter injuries in 2023. They should have full faith in the new training staff they brought in to properly deal with Correa's ankle as best as possible.
While I also don’t feel great about Correa’s health, I am hopeful that if the Twins sign him, they know what they are signing up for and are ready to handle it.
Another aspect of the failed physicals is that they may provide the Twins a rare opportunity to sign an elite player in free agency. There will never be a perfect free agent, and if there were, they wouldn’t likely choose the Twins. So, the Twins are correct to try to take advantage of this rare opportunity, even if it’s a massive risk on the health front.
At the end of this saga, it seems that Correa will more than likely be a Met. If that's the case, it won't have affected the Twins that he "used" them at all. If he does end up in Minnesota, Twins fans should embrace the risk they will have taken and be excited that the Twins will have an elite player for most of the next decade.

Who cares. A common phrase I hear more and more often. Did you hear about the Carlos Correa fiasco? Who cares. Do you think Dansby Swanson is worth the money and years he received? Who cares. Did you see the new rules for this year? Who cares. This feeling of apathy loomed over most of the conversations I tried to have about baseball while home for the holidays, and when I was done sipping eggnog out of frustration, I came back to Iowa for some more of the same. To them, the upcoming ‘who gives a damn’ bowl that the Hawkeyes were playing in was far more interesting than the insane contracts being thrown about like money was going out of style (I’m talking to you Steve Cohen). The more time I spend trying to talk baseball with those that aren’t as into it as myself, a truth harder than the plate in Carlos Correa’s leg becomes obvious to me. Baseball is failing to market itself properly to gain interest from both the average fan and potential young fans alike. There is no singular solution and I certainly don’t have all the answers. However, the lack of visibility for its star players, fun-killing unwritten rules, and media blackouts are all core issues that are eating away at the popularity of the sport.
Similar to the ‘who cares’ response I receive from folks a lot is the even simpler, ‘who?’ My mother-in-law, who is about as far from a sports fan as you can be and is from Texas, mentioned the huge contract that Dak Prescott signed with the Cowboys. I tried pulling the conversation towards baseball and followed up with the Aaron Judge contract and the insane amount of money and years dropped into the lap of a player already in his 30s. I expected her response to be related to the amount of money we pay to professional athletes, instead she said, “who?” That’s a problem MLB. Your star players need to be recognizable to the average person and need to be highlighted and promoted as such. Everyone knows who Lebron James or Tom Brady is, but not too many people outside of us baseball fans know who Aaron Judge, Fernando Tatis (I know…), or Bryce Harper are.
I think part of the issue is that there are unwritten rules in baseball that don’t allow its star players to show off their personality and become icons and known to the general public. The best example I can think of happened to Fernando Tatis (again, I know…) in 2021 I believe. The Padres were up big and the bases were loaded. It was 3-0 and Tatis got an absolute meatball and hit an epic blast. Four more runs. Afterwards, the cameras showed Tatis in the dugout getting chewed out for swinging 3-0 when his team was up big. He later apologized. APOLOGIZED. This infuriated me. One, why shouldn’t he swing? Two, he gets paid based on performance. Three, it gets his team a larger cushion. Lastly, home runs are awesome and incredibly difficult to hit. Honestly, the odds are he would have gotten himself out (pace of play, you’re welcome). Not only that, but now you have taken one of the young and amazing talents in your sport, whom you wish to be one of the faces of the league (really, again, I know…) and reprimanded him for doing something exciting and scoring four runs for his team. Absolutely absurd. In contrast, the NFL lets Justin Jefferson do the griddy every time he scores and really show off his personality. Baseball needs to start promoting their players better and do the same. Bat flips to the sky and pitchers screaming their heads off after a 3rd out strikeout? Yes, please.
Even if those unwritten rules erode, players become known, and fans are ready to put their butts in seats and couches to see it, there is the final issue… REGIONAL BLACKOUTS. This might be the most egregious offense of all. To watch an MLB game, you must do one of three things. One, purchase cable in your region and spend well over 100 dollars on channels you don’t need or care about. Two, purchase MLB TV and hope you aren’t located in a market for whomever you are trying to watch (Iowa blocks Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Royals and Cardinals by the way). Three, pay a king’s ransom in purchasing a ticket, food, parking, etc. to attend a game in person. This option is becoming insanely expensive when it does not need to be. MLB makes the bulk of its money off media rights (hence the regional black outs forcing the purchasing of cable) and attendance becomes less important each year. In fact, attendance has dropped every year since 2012, but revenue has been steady. With inflation, attending a game as a family of four is becoming almost impossible, which means fans need to be able to watch on TV. This however, is incredibly difficult and expensive as well. I think the solution could be moving on from the regional markets and leaning into a streaming service with no blackouts. This would involve having different priced packages for how many teams you want to follow or if you want ads or not. There could be single, 10, 20, and 30 team packages.
By moving away from some of the unwritten rules that dampen a player’s personality, more stars worth watching will begin to emerge. If MLB can combine that with making the game easier to access and view, the youth will be drawn in by these exciting and vibrant players. This will result in kids becoming engaged with baseball at a young age and hopefully herald in a new age of baseball popularity. MLB needs to make the first move however, and I don’t see them moving on from the regional sports networks that have been an absolute cash cow for them.

Can you smell it? Piss and peanuts…? Wait, I forgot the Metrodome was demolished a decade ago. I meant the glorious aroma of hotdogs, peanuts, and fresh cut grass, which will soon will fill the air and bring the 2023 MLB season with it. However, this season is unique in that it comes with a set of impactful new rules. As a quick overview for the unaware, bases are getting 3 inches larger, a pitch clock will be enforced, and defensive shifting will be limited. As I looked at the details of these game changing, era defining, fix-all rule changes, it would have been easy to sit back and say to myself, well at least they are trying to speed up the game and make it more ‘exiting.’ Instead, I will say that MLB has completely missed the mark on why people aren’t attending or watching the games, and these rule changes make it all the more obvious. This is the clearest to me in their attempt to shorten the length of games with the addition of the pitch clock and limiting of pickoff attempts.
Rhythm, timing, and mental warfare are a few of the major components that make baseball the amazing sport that it is. Limiting a pitcher to 20 seconds between pitches and only allowing two pick off attempts should be a criminal offense. Whoever thought that was a good idea should be in prison. Not only is the 20 second limit going to basically force a pitcher to give one look at the runner and then either come home or throw over, the two-pick policy will allow the runner to get an INSANE jump on the next pitch. A pitcher needs to be able to vary his timing and throw over. The bigger bases are already allowing the runner to be four and a half inches closer, which is significant if you think about how close a lot of stolen base attempts are. Combining bigger bases with the addition of the pitch clock and pick off limit is going to make it almost impossible for a pitcher to control the running game. We will see a dramatic drop off in catcher’s throw out percentages, which will have even the likes of Yadier Molina in his prime shaking his head.
Next up is the limiting of defensive shifts. Learn to hit the ball where they ain’t, that’s all I have to say about that. However, I would be more than happy to hop on one foot with the other firmly placed in my mouth if Joey Gallo and Max Kepler become .300 hitters because of this.
The fact that MLB is trying to promote offense and shorten the game through a series of absurd rule changes tells me they have grossly miscalculated why people don’t watch baseball. That, or I am completely wrong on this issue. For the sake of going down a rabbit’s hole on the latter, I will stick to the assumption that it’s the former. The reason people aren’t watching baseball is NOT because the games are too long. MLB games averaged three hours and five minutes in 2022. The NFL, America’s most popular sport, averaged three hours and twelve minutes. In addition, according to a study from the Wall Street Journal, albeit from 2013, the amount of actual game action in an NFL and MLB game was 11 and 18 minutes respectively. That data was collected a while ago, but the idea that stems from it holds true. Both sports have significant down time between action, and I would argue that the downtime is far more interesting in baseball. In football they just huddle up and call a play. In baseball that time between pitches IS action. The mind games happening between the runners, pitchers and hitters are crucial to the outcome of the next pitch. That ‘down-time’ is part of what makes the game so rich and unique when compared to other sports. Where the NFL succeeds and MLB fails, is their ability to market and highlight the sport so fans actually want to sit down for three hours for a few precious minutes of action. MLB needs to find a way to get people to understand the game, not dumb it down.
The real issues plaguing baseball’s popularity are not being addressed (see part II), and these ridiculous rule changes not only do nothing to solve the problem, but end up diluting what makes the game of baseball truly great to begin with. The more MLB doubles down on trying to speed up the game as a solution, the quicker the game will lose people’s interest, and attendance will continue to drop as it has each year since 2012. Do we want to play baseball or do we want to play dumb and fast? I believe the two to be mutually exclusive.

To this point, the Minnesota Twins’ off-season has not gone as some had hoped, leading fans to chalk it up as a major dud. I, on the other hand, view it simply as incomplete. The current makeup of the roster is bursting at the seams with potential, and there are still enough moves the Twins can make to transform this promising roster into a contender in the AL Central. Here are a few moves I could see the Twins plausibly acting on to achieve that goal.
Sign a Right-Handed Outfielder
It seems as though the Twins currently possess every left-handed outfielder that has ever played the game. With Gallo, Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Wallner all taking their cuts from the left side of the plate, the Twins could use a little pop from the right side. Trey Mancini is one right handed option that fits the Twins’ current roster very well.
Mancini is only 30 years old and has five seasons of solid production at the plate. He went through a tough time at the plate after being traded to the Astros last year, but I choose to look at the whole body of work rather than the final 51 games he played in Houston.
Mancini’s bat is the appeal here, but he has experience playing outfield as well as first base, a position where the Twins don’t currently have a permanent solution. The Twins have money to spend, and signing Mancini would give them a guy they can plug into a corner outfield spot, first base, or DH to add a plus bat to the lineup. There are other options on the free agent market that would fill this need, but Mancini is the one I like best.
Bolster the Rotation
If you thought signing Gallo was the beginning of the end for Max Kepler in Minnesota, signing Mancini would surely be the straw that broke the camel’s back. In a scenario where the Twins do sign Mancini, they now have too many cooks in the outfield, and unfortunately, Kepler is the odd man out.
As noted in my last blog post, I am very high on Pablo Lopez as a potential target for the Twins, and the Marlins are reportedly looking for MLB-ready bats, particularly outfielders. Kepler isn’t enough to get Lopez on his own, but they could package him with either a top 5 prospect or Luis Arraez. Another way they could try to complete a deal would be to take on Jorge Soler’s contract. This method would dip into their spending over the next few years but would allow them to hang onto their top prospects and Luis Arraez. The two teams have been reported to be in ongoing trade talks, so it remains to be seen how this plays out, but Pablo Lopez would be a massive addition to a frequently injured rotation.
If the Twins elect not to trade for a front of the rotation guy, they must sign a back of the rotation insurance piece. Four of the five rotation pieces penciled in either struggled to stay healthy last year or didn't play at all due to injury. Adding a guy like Michael Wacha would prevent the Twins from having to rush young prospects the way they did last year with Josh Winder and Louie Varland. Both Varland and Winder showed promise in their big league debuts, but both guys could use a bit more time in the minors before being rotational MLB pitchers.
Sure Up the Bullpen
2022 was a year of highs and lows for the Minnesota Twins bullpen. The emergence of Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran as dominant pieces at the back end of the bullpen was riveting, while Emilio Pagan and Jorge Lopez left a sour taste in many fans’ mouths.
The Twins should see the return of Jorge Alcala in 2023. Although there is no guarantee Alcala will return to the form he was when he was the favorite to win the closer job after the Taylor Rogers trade, he should still be a viable piece for the Twins to use. Jorge Lopez walks too many batters, but I still believe in the elite stuff, and his dominant first half of 2022 with the Orioles is impossible to ignore. There may even be hope that Pagan can be a decent middle reliever if he continues to develop his splitter.
As a unit, the group is solid, but with the rotation’s inability to pitch deep into games, they could use one more reliable arm. Michael Fulmer would be a familiar name the Twins could bring back for a modest price. Another name I like if the Twins are in the market for a lefty reliever is Andrew Chafin, who had a 3.06 FIP and fanned 67 batters over 57.1 IP last season with the Detroit Tigers. Chafin is left-handed compared to Fulmer’s right-handedness, so it would be up to the Twins to decide which is a bigger need and what would be a better fit.
At this point in the off-season, even though things may seem all doom and gloom, there are still moves left for the Twins to make. They have a young, promising roster, money to spend, and bats they should be willing to trade to upgrade the team as a whole. The three potential moves highlighted above could put a nice touch on an otherwise uneventful off-season and, in my opinion, would make the Twins contenders in the AL Central.
What are your thoughts? What’s a move you want the Twins to make before Spring Training? Let me know! As always, Go, Twins!

There has been plenty of off-season buzz surrounding Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez. The 26-year-old hurler struck out 174 batters over 180 innings in 2022 while possessing a solid 3.71 FIP. Since the Marlins have a deep and young starting pitching rotation, Lopez is both expendable for them and very valuable on the trade market. Is Lopez a realistic trade target for the Minnesota Twins?

It has been no secret that the Minnesota Twins have been looking to add to their rotation that experienced various health issues in 2022. They made a hard push for left-handed free agent Carlos Rodon but ultimately fell short, leaving them looking for other reliable options. The Twins have been linked to the Marlins in trade talks for the last couple of months, and one would assume Pablo Lopez’s name has likely been thrown around. Lopez, however, will not come cheap. Due to his age, he will turn 27 in March, productivity, and the fact that he is under team control for two more full seasons, Lopez’s value is very high. But what will it cost?

If the Twins want a realistic shot at landing Lopez, they will have to throw some tangible assets on the table. It is rumored that the Marlins aren’t looking for prospects in return for Lopez but rather bats they can plug into the lineup to help them out immediately. With that said, a trade to bring Lopez to Minnesota would likely cost the Twins Luis Arraez and maybe even a little more. If the Twins were willing to eat Jorge Soler’s contract, they could perhaps convince the Marlins to complete a deal without Arraez’s involvement. However, for a mid-market team, the Twins will probably be unwilling to add the $12M per-year contract to the payroll for a player that won’t offer much productivity.

This leaves the Twins with only one really realistic option, which would be to move Arraez, whose value is higher than it has ever been and may be as high as it will ever get. Does it make sense to trade him while his value is high? Arraez is a clear fan favorite and among the best pure hitters on the planet, but he also carries his share of flaws. Arraez has had a litany of knee issues in the past, he’s an awful defender anywhere besides first base, and provides next to no power at the plate, which is an approach that doesn’t seem to fit what the Twins have been trying to do in recent years. Maybe it’s time to strike while the iron is hot, put the chips in the middle of the table, and pull off a trade for a durable frontline starter.
 
What are your thoughts? Are you willing to pay this price for a frontline starter? Let me know, and as always, Go, Twins!

The Twins are projected for 81 wins this coming season, which is fairly generous for a team coming off a 78-84 season that is losing its MVP in Carlos Correa. The front office is on the hot seat, having failed to win a playoff game in their six year tenure after inheriting a young, cheap and talented roster prior to 2017. That front office believes in its process to the point it apparently feels comfortable running back pretty much the same guys and hoping that fewer injuries vaults them up the standings. A recent Gleeman and the Geek mailbag episode featured a discussion of whether the Twins process lined up with its results. Gleeman and our fearless leader eventually came to the conclusion that the front office’s process was a little ahead of the results, but not by as much as said front office would hope. I am about to argue the opposite.
 
The plan going into the 2017 season was to develop the emerging young players (Kepler, Polanco, Buxton, Sanó) into cheap, controllable stars, avoid long-term commitments unless they came at a steep discount, develop home-grown pitching, try to find unlockable pitchers off the scrap heap using newfound analytics and tech, and become a sustainable winner on a budget, much like Cleveland. But is the front office sticking to that?
 
It certainly is an improvement. Part of the problem with the Terry Ryan regime was that the team never sold high on any of its assets, letting Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter, Jason Kubel and the like play out their years of team control or let them lose all their trade value through injury or under-performance and get flipped for a bag of balls. This kept the farm system gutted and resulted in the kind of painful rebuild this new regime is now trying to avoid.
Will they avoid it? Let’s examine their process and match it up to reality.
 
They definitely have kept the books clean, with only Byron Buxton’s team-friendly deal carrying any real weight. Many Twins fans blamed Joe Mauer’s contract extension as the reason the team fell out of contention in the early 2010’s, but any logical person knows that the previous core got old and there was no one to replace them. The Twins also didn’t get any value out of that core before they got old or ineffective. That’s how Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Oakland have contention windows open longer than a team like the Royals, who rode with its stars from its World Series runs, gave some of them extensions and watched it all fall apart. They did take advantage of the two playoff runs they got, but that’s an awfully short time to be relevant, and there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight.
 
As far as developing their own pitching, the Twins haven’t shown much. While Cleveland and Tampa Bay churn out a new four WAR pitcher every year, all we have to show for ourselves is Bailey Ober and the reliever versions of Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. Matt Canterino and Blayne Enlow look like sure relievers at this point, Jordan Balazovic is a mess, and Louie Varland has a ceiling of a third starter. Cade Povich looked good, but was traded for Jorge López. Ditto Steven Hajjar, who was included in the Tyler Mahle trade. Josh Winder gets lit up on every fastball he throws, so all hopes land on Connor Prielipp and Marco Raya at this point, neither of whom are close to the majors. After six years, one would expect a little more from a front office that claimed to specialize in this area. They have added pitching talent via trade, and it looks like that will need to continue.
 
The way the Twins’ roster currently sits is intriguing in its lack of second and third year arbitration players. That sets up a lot of value to be gained if some of those players turn into stars, like Luis Arraez for instance. He’s now an All-Star utility player who just won a batting championship. We know his flaws here locally: his knees wear down and he doesn’t offer much at third and second base defensively. But for a team looking for that difference-maker in the playoffs, Arraez looks plenty enticing, which I am sure is why the Twins are listening to offers on him currently. Doing so has the potential to bring back multiple Arraez’s who are potentially cheaper. Winning that kind of trade is exactly the kind of process Falvey and Levine should value if they want a Cleveland style contention window, but they haven’t done much of that, either. So far, the team has traded Jose Berrios for two likely big league contributors, (how much they contribute is very much in question) traded the last year of Taylor Rogers for three years of a talented starting pitcher in Chris Paddack, and traded a young pitcher, Brusdar Graterol, who was destined for relief work for four years of Kenta Maeda. All of those trades netted the team positive value, and none of them made the team worse in the immediate future considering how bad Rogers and Berrios have been.
 
The tough pill to swallow is that to truly compete at a Cleveland-Tampa level, young stars will have to be traded near the peak of their career, not just when they get expensive in arbitration. Look at the Mike Clevinger trade from 2020. In exchange for two and a half years of Clevinger, who to that point was coming off of three years with a combined 152 ERA+, Cleveland received Josh Naylor, Gabriel Arias, Austin Hedges, Owen Miller, Cal Quantrill and Joey Cantillo. Two of those guys, Naylor and Quantrill, are established starters on a division winning team. Shortstop Arias and starting pitcher Cantillo are rookies who both figure to play big roles in their next one to two seasons with Arias ranking number 57 on Baseball-Prospectus’ mid-season rankings. Hedges was their catcher this past year, and Miller their top pinch hitter. Those last two are disappointments for Cleveland, but the trade was a massive success even without their inclusion. Clevinger got hurt immediately once he became a Padre, sat out 2021 and was ineffective in 2022. The trades of Berrios, Graterol and Rogers were a net positive, but unless Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson significantly outperform expectations, they didn’t do much to stack the roster for the future. Getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez for Mitch Garver was a reasonable play, but trading him after 2019, knowing he wasn’t likely to age well and that his defense was just okay, could have set the team up at multiple positions. It just doesn’t seem like that’s part of the Falvine process.
 
Which is unfortunate because the front office has to make unpopular decisions if it wants to compete against teams that can spend more and absorb bad contracts. Of course the Twins could certainly raise payroll, but they have shown that they won’t, and even if they did, luring free agents to Minnesota has proven to be a tough sell. They need to overpay, but they have shown they will not look stupid by giving a player “too much money.” Brandon Nimmo, for instance, has never been a 162M player, but the Mets wanted him so they paid him 30-40% more than was projected. If Nimmo continues being who he is, a three WAR player without power who can stick in center field for a few years, the contract won’t age well. But the Mets don’t care, and if the Twins front office wants to toe the line between the Cleveland-Tampa model and the Phillies-Padres one, they will have to show a free agent they don’t care either. Once in a while, at least.
 
They could also follow the Atlanta Braves model and sign all their emerging stars to team-friendly extensions. These contracts can look bad, as well- just ask the Mariners about Evan White, or the Cardinals about Paul DeJong. The pay-off is enormous though, as you can keep your roster flush with stars without having to trade your next star for it. The Twins are in a position to make some of those types of deals, with Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and Jose Miranda potentially big parts of the team’s future. Some of that crop has injury issues, which is bad, but also depreciates the value of any extension that player might sign. You might be able to get three years of Kirilloff’s or Ober’s free agency for 30M each. Duran might be the next reliever to secure a 100M contract, but if he agreed to a buyout of his arbitration years plus two more for a total of 40M, that could pay off handsomely and he might accept it, given his history of arm injuries in the minors.
 
All three routes, early trades, overpaying free agents and extending pre-arbitration guys, require a little luck, but that’s why you have a sophisticated and robust scouting and analytic presence. You have to trust your guys and take some risks, and right now the Twins are stuck in limbo, afraid to lose prospects who may blossom elsewhere, to overpay for free agents, or to hand out extensions to players who may end up chronically injured or bad.
The sad truth is that avoiding long-term commitments and getting value out of scrap heap pitchers isn’t much of a process, especially when the pitching pipeline is bare. They won’t overpay like the Padres, Phillies or Mariners, they won’t deal guys at the peak of their value like Cleveland and Tampa, and they don’t extend hardly any of them early either, like the Braves.They just wait for their prospects and hope to get lucky with a Josh Donaldson or Correa. They will describe this non-action as being opportunistic.
 
The team has assembled a good amount of talent, but without the intentionality of those other teams, there is less cohesion; the team just grabs what talent it can and crams it all together. That isn’t so much to say that Joey Gallo is a bad fit, as it is to say the front office never gets their first, second or third choice in free agency or in trades. The Twins needed a frontline pitcher at the deadline and it seemed like they got one in Tyler Mahle. Except Mahle was hurt. He and the Twins hoped it wouldn’t be a problem, but it was. If he hadn't just come back from shoulder problems, the Twins would have had to give up more than the three good prospects they did give up, such as someone the national media actually knew about or who played on the big league roster. Their likely first choice, Mahle’s teammate with the Reds, Luis Castillo, ended up going to the Mariners for a boatload of prospects that surely gave the Twins and Yankees a feeling of relief. But the Mariners wanted an ace for their return to the playoffs, he was the missing piece that team needed, and that team ended up beating a formidable Blue Jays team on the road in the wild-card round, and playing the Astros tougher than any other team, as it turned out. Even before signing Castillo to an extension, they didn’t regret the trade. It reminds me of a line from King of the Hills’s Dale Gribble, trying to goad his friend Hank into mooning a hotel lobby from a glass elevator::
Noelvi Marte may end up being a star, but everyone in Seattle remembers Castillo’s 7.1 shutout innings in game one.
 
Shopping for discounts leads to getting players on the downside of their careers, players who are trouble in the clubhouse, or players with injury questions. With Josh Donaldson, the Twins got all three! It’s hard to establish an identity when your additions to the roster are hurt, playing badly but need to play based on what you gave up for them, and are getting in insular beefs with Gerrit Cole.
I’m sure the Twins do target players they want, but when they do, they either aren’t dreaming very big, or they aren’t giving big enough offers. Other teams may even use the Twins lack of free agent appeal against them in trade discussions, and ask more knowing that they represent the only way for the Twins to improve from outside their organization. The Correa pursuit showed both the Twins desperation, as 10/285M was an enormous offer for the team historically, and the issue I am referring to, that they couldn’t add that one extra year that may have added 25-30% to the odds of Correa being swayed to stay in Minnesota.
 
Of course, even with all the inaction, the front office has made some unexpected and creative trades, such as unloading Donaldson’s contract to free up money to target Trevor Story last year. Story didn’t want to play in Minnesota, or at least he didn’t for the offer they gave him, and the front office was fortunate that Scott Boras called with his Correa proposition. Being nimble is a nice benefit of the payroll flexibility the team enjoys, but it doesn’t move the needle of turning this team into a real contender.
 
Here’s how I would say the team has performed using the processes they were brought in to execute:
Not taking on long-term deals: A+
Finding scrap heap pitchers and unlocking their potential: D-
Develop position players into major league contributors: C
Develop home-grown pitching: D-
 
Here’s how they performed using other, successful, processes:
Overpaying for free agents to add talent without dipping into farm system: F
Extending emerging stars before they break out: D
Trading players with years of team control who are playing at a high level to replenish the farm system and/or augment the major league roster: C
 
This is why injuries can’t be blamed for the lack of recent success. There is a problem with the process. One, their pitching expertise has proven dubious. Two, their process model doesn’t include the boldness exhibited by teams they are trying to emulate. The scrap heap pitchers they are trying to unlock are waiver claims, not major league bounce back candidates. The pitchers they target in trades are of the scratch n’ dent variety, not sure things. Imagine if the team had struggled getting its high position player draft picks to the majors and there was no Gordon, Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, or Buxton to even worry about projecting for the 2023 roster. That’s the only positive thing keeping this team from becoming Detroit or Kansas City.
 
My advice would be to get Chris Sale for a prospect and take on his entire salary, flip Sonny Gray and Max Kepler to San Diego, where they are short a starter and a corner outfielder and try to pry Ha-Seong Kim from them. But hey, that’s just my process.


 

The Minnesota Twins recently signed Willi Castro to a minor league contract. He will not be the opening day shortstop, he likely won’t make the team, and in a perfect world, he probably never sees the Big Leagues in 2023. Having experienced a very not perfect 2022, Castro provides depth in several positions and has some intriguing skills worth noting. While digging, I found some interesting things about Castro that I would like to share and found him a more familiar player than I initially thought. 
Feature Image via Tom Hagerty
So far in his career, Willi Castro has not been a very productive Major League Baseball player. Through just over 300 games and 1,000 plate appearances, he is slashing .245/.292/.381 (.673 OPS) with a 4.7% BB%, 24.1% K%, 86 wRC+, and -22 total DRS (defensive runs saved) at six different positions through 2,338 innings and 1.6 fWAR. Not to be redundant, but he has been relatively unimpressive so far, hence why he was DFA’d from the Detroit Tigers and could only land a minor league contract. 
So why would the Twins invest? For starters, minor league contracts carry almost zero risk, meaning if the Twins cut him halfway through the season, there are no negative consequences. Castro is a switch hitter who has been significantly better against left-handed pitching (career .711 OPS vs. LHP - .658 OPS vs. RHP). The Twins have been searching for more effective bats against left-handed pitchers, and he has Major League experience at six positions: 2B, SS, 3B, and all three outfield spots. In addition, Castro also has some eye-catching athleticism metrics. Per Statcast, his max exit velocity for his career is 115.4 MPH, which was the 95th percentile in 2021. Statcast registered his sprint speed in 2022 as the 78th percentile, and his arm strength scored in the 87th percentile, with his hardest throw hitting 97.0 MPH. 
Can you think of any Twins players that sound familiar to Willi Castro? 
The player that came to my mind is Danny Santana. Both players entered the Big Leagues with a bang, but their teams eventually moved on after both players failed to repeat their hot start. Santana bounced around in the Minor Leagues and resurfaced as a utility man with another breakout season in 2019 but was largely unproductive outside 2014 and 2019. Castro was exceptional in 2020 but has been relatively unproductive since and is following Santana’s footsteps by trying to survive in the Majors as a utility man. He logged about 800 more plate appearances than Castro, but their career numbers are similar in certain areas. 
Here are some statistics that are very close for Castro and Santana:
(Castro)  (Santana) 
OBP: .292  .296
BB%: 4.7%  4.8%
K%: 24.1%  25.6%
wRC+: 86  85
xwOBA (League avg .316): .296  .290
Z-Swing % (League avg 66.9%): 75.0%  74.5% 
O-Swing% % (League avg 28.4%): 39.8%  36.9%
Swing % (League avg 47.1%): 56.7%  55.3%
Whiff % (League avg 24.7%): 29.2%  29.7%
DRS at SS: -13 (696 Innings)  -15 (918 Innings)
Sprint Speed: 78th percentile (2022)  74th percentile (2021) 
Arm Strength: 87th percentile (2022)  96th percentile (2021)
What stands out about these numbers? The similarities between the two players are plate discipline and bat-to-ball ability. These players are free-swinging, low-walk, medium strikeout hitters with good raw power that hasn’t entirely translated into game power, likely due to plate discipline or approach reasons. They also compare similarly as athletes and defensively at shortstop. 
So how do they differ as players? Castro and Santana utilize their athleticism quite differently. Santana, throughout his career, has two different 20 stolen base seasons and has a 75/101 (74.3% success rate); Castro has only stolen 18 bases and is 18/28 (64.2% success rate) in his career. Santana also hit for a little more power than Castro has so far; Santana’s career SLG is .413, Castro at .381 with ISO (SLG minus BA, league avg .183) saying the same; Santana at .159 and Castro at .136. Castro has had his athletic abilities translate more to the defensive side of the ball. While neither player stuck at SS, Willi Castro has turned himself into a viable defensive option in the outfield, something Santana never quite got to. DRS (0), UZR (0.1), and OAA (-1) all agree that through 724 innings, Castro is about a league-average outfielder. They are less conclusive on Santana but overall are low, totaling 1945 innings, with DRS having him at -7, UZR at -1.1, and OAA at 1. 
This move by the Twins carries a negative undertone due to how the offseason has been going so far but try not to let their failure in one area (or player) affect your judgment of Castro. He has some very tantalizing physical tools as well as spurts of success in the Major Leagues, not to mention Detroit is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball. A deal with this kind of upside on a minor league contract is good for the Twins. While praising this signing seems contradictory because ideally, he never leaves St. Paul, we will likely see Castro at some point due to his versatility and the inevitability of injuries. Whether or not you are a fan of this move, I hope this nugget was interesting to you in some manner and I look forward to reading your thoughts on Willi Castro.
 
Links and Definitions for some lesser known statistics: 
xwOBA: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba
wRC+:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-runs-created-plus
Z-Swing%, O-Swing%: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/plate-discipline/
Whiff %: total swings and misses/total swings 
DRS: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/drs/
UZR:https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/
OAA:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average
 

In "Fun with Player Comps" I look at player comps for 30 current Twins who figure to ply a role in 2023, starting with their closest age player from Baseball-Reference.com prior to 2022. I then move into the best and worst case scenarios based on each player's general vibe. Find the first installment for the middle infield here.
 
The Twins center-field options will include at least one new face for 2023 in Joey Gallo. The rest of the group contains the same warts: When Byron Buxton gets hurt there will be a massive trade-off in offense, defense, and/or flexibility for the rest of the position player group. The upside could be fun, though. Let's start with the new guy:
 
Joey Gallo
B-R best comp through Age 28: Dave Kingman
It's hard to beat this comp. If I got to pick it myself it might have been this very fellow. Kingman was essentially the Gallo of the 70s and 80s: he didn’t walk much because that wasn’t what all-or-nothing sluggers did back then. But like Gallo, he was a caricature of himself, even when he was having some good years and collecting down-ballot MVP votes.He hit 442 home runs, which is great, but that came with a .236 batting average and a .302 OBP. But the comparison to Gallo runs deeper than numbers: when your dad complains about Gallo's strikeouts and how his style of play is ruining the game (without any knowledge or mention of his great outfield defense), your dad's dad was complaining about Kingman, one of the first players to normalize striking out over 100 times per year. His dad complained about Mickey Mantle, probably.
Worst case: White Sox Adam Dunn, post-contract extension Chris Davis
I wouldn’t recommend looking up stats on these comps.
Best case: Median Cody Bellinger
Bellinger’s true talent probably wasn’t represented in his 2019 MVP season, but it also wasn’t in his 2021-2022 seasons. In 2018, however, Bellinger put up a 120 OPS+ with good defense across multiple positions, including center-field. That would be nice to see from Gallo.
 
Byron Buxton
Age 28: Bo Jackson
This might be somehow better than Gallo’s Kingman comp. Bo was electrifying and could do things no other human could do across multiple sports. Sadly, he was a little healthier than Buxton until his tragic hip injury, but outside of Mike Trout, his five tools weren't been matched until Lord Byron first learned how to turn on pitches.
Worst case: Ellis Valentine
Valentine was one of the hottest prospects of the 1970’s and one of the first to exhibit five loud tools. His failure to launch was partly Tim Raines’ fault for getting him hooked on cocaine, and partly the brutal AstroTurf in Montreal’s garbage can of a stadium. It all caught up to him and after age 26 he was a shell of himself; by age 30 he was out of baseball. Coming up with Gary Carter, Raines and Andre Dawson, all Hall-of-Famers, you really start to feel for Montreal fans of that era, who witnessed one postseason series win despite all that talent. "Cry me a river," say fans of Buxton and the Twins.
Best case: Kevin Kiermaier’s glove and Gary Sheffield’s bat
One player can’t encapsulate the upside of Buxton, but these two pin it down fairly well. Buxton has the lightning quick bat and snarl of Sheffield, and is Kiermaier's only peer when it comes to fearlessly running down impossible-to-catch fly balls.
 
Gilberto Celestino
(No comps yet)
Worst case: Shane Robinson
Robinson was a fungible fourth or fifth outfielder with some on-base ability and plus defense, but never developed any power to speak of. He reached the peak plate appearance season of his career with the Twins in 2015 when he came to bat 197 times.
Best case: Manuel Margot
Margot has carved out an interesting career. He was originally a hot Red Sox prospect out of the Dominican with power, speed and good center-field defense. In what became a trend of trading him for mercurial late inning relievers, he was traded to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel. He was later flipped to the Rays for one Emilio Pagán. He has since become a streaky but valuable role player for the Rays, providing a .695 OPS, decent defense and the ability to go yard and steal a base. He also has been clutch for the Rays in the postseason, hitting five home runs for the Rays in their pennant winning 2020 season. If Celestino can come close to that level of production, the Twins can live with Buxton playing only 80-90 games, provided those games include the stretch run.
 
Nick Gordon
Age 26: Chris Burke
Burke had some big postseason moments with the Astros in the early aughts but had an otherwise nondescript career. He did slash .276/.347/.418 in 2006 but otherwise never had a slugging percentage higher than .368. Gordon also needs to keep his slugging squarely in the .450 range for him to have significant long-term value.
Worst case: Christian Colón
Colón was a high draft pick who never hit enough to carve out a career as a utility man. He did win a ring with Kansas City, but after posting a 104 OPS+ over his first two years encompassing 168 plate appearances, he dropped that number to 47 playing sporadically for three teams in 250 plate appearances. If Gordon stalls in his development with the bat, his middling defense won't save him from a similar fate.
Best case: Scooter Gennett
Gennett was mostly a second baseman who hit the ball harder than you would think, and despite his 5’10” frame, put up some big power numbers in Cincinnati. Gordon would love to match Gennett’s peak, but also would probably like to stay in the league a little longer- Gennett played his last game at age 29. To reach a peak like that, Gordon has to continue to refine his approach and hunt pitches a little better, but he has surprised us a few times already, so why not?
 
Quite a bit of variance, no? Sorting through these options legitimizes the Gallo signing a little more, only because Kepler won't play center whether he remains with the team or not, and it gives them another dice to roll when Buxton isn't available. Anything is better than Jake Cave and Mark Contreras.
Link to previous entry in this series:
Fun with player comps- Middle infield edition

This is all of course predicated on Correa staying in New York. Also a couple of these moves are related to each other.
#1 Trading redundant players. Not breaking any news here. Kepler and even Arraez have both been mentioned as trade candidates. Especially after the Joey Gallo signing. Yes the Twins could very easily keep Kepler and go with an OF of Kepler, Buxton, Gallo. AND if they feel Kepler will have a strong season with the shift rules changes, then the best move is to keep him and potentially trade him for higher value at the deadline. If he has a strong 1st half then that $10M team option for next year greatly increases his trade value. I am not sure what the trade value is for either Kepler or Arraez, so I am not going to sit here and say.. Lets trade Kepler for Sandy Alcantara to improve our pitching This trade group is also not limited to Kepler, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff could all also be slotted into this scenario.  We cannot play them all, and there may even be better overall fits out there instead of them (although I like Wallner and Larnach). And this brings me to move #2...
#2 Sign Domnic Smith. I still cannot believe he is unsigned. Dom is not a game changer, but he can play GG caliber defense at 1B. and has a very solid bat, with even "great bat" potential. He never got consistent ABs at his natural 1B position with the Mets. He could be signed at a very team friendly deal at this point. If there is decent trade value in Kirilloff, Kepler, any other LH or potential 1B on this squad then trading them and signing Dom is a great move, because not only would we secure Dom cheaply, but also get some return for players he will replace.
 
#3 Call Texas regarding Ezequiel Duran. This again is dependent on what else we do, especially if we trade Arraez. Yes we have Farmer as a potential SS/utility IF kind of guy, but Ezequiel Duran can play MORE positions, is younger/cheaper, and I think an overall superior bat. he is a natural 2B, but can play 3B & SS, and has gotten some time in the OF. with Seager, Simien, Jung on the IF he is blocked. Maybe this is a good swap with Kepler as Texas is still looking for an OF. and while I like Polanco at 2B he is $7.5M this year and $10.5 next. SO this also helps free up cash IF the Twins ever decide to step up and pay in the deep end of the FA pool.
 
AND... While I said these moves assume Correa stays with Mets. These moves make even MORE sense if something weird happens where Mets back out and the Twins can get Correa for something along the lines of the 10 years $285M they offered, although I would do something more like 8 for $250. (Higher AAV but less long-term risk). As these moves would clear $16M this year and $12-20M depending on options next year and replace with equal offensive output in Dom Smith & Duran).  Dom's position wouldn't be the same, but bat for bat Smith would be an upgrade over Kepler, and allow one of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner to play the 3rd OF spot.
 

Anyone that’s been around baseball recently has heard some variation of “Old School” vs. “New School” baseball. It’s like asking someone to pick between bacon or sausage. Both are good, and you can like one more than the other, but you don’t have to hate someone or the meat over it. Makes no sense. The difference is people identify baseball as a part of who they are and baseball isn’t high in cholesterol.
The “old” vs. the “new” is an incredibly broad generalization that has split baseball fans, coaches, and even players almost directly down the middle. Whether it’s the application of analytics, showing excess emotion on the field, how to swing, how to throw, throwing at guys, and the (ever-present) how you wear your uniform. The issue with all these things is not one act or another but the application of each “school”. Neither camp, believe it or not, is rooted in evil.
Social media has taken these arguments on play styles into everyone’s living room. I have coached baseball and specifically hitters at the travel ball, high school, and collegiate levels. You best bring your boxing gloves if you want to talk about teaching a kid how to hit. If you spend a minute on Twitter, you’ll come across one grey-haired dude or another speaking in absolutes saying swing up (new school) or swing down (old school). The fact of the matter is they are both right and they are both wrong.
As a baseball community, we have regressed into a kindergarten level of thinking where everything is so “black and white”. I’m not sure if it’s laziness or an odd compulsion to never change because “this worked back in my day”. Regardless of the topic, we do each other a great disservice by not taking the time to evaluate things on an individual basis. We want to generalize and then slide something to the left or right, alienating a huge portion of our community that needs us to do better.
Baseball is so beautiful because so much is based on feel and rhythm. For so many great players the game is almost a dance. The game moves slower and it’s such a pleasure to watch. Many guys I have played with fall into this category and think “I need to swing down and be quick”. This is not the result you get at the end but it’s about the feel. If someone pinned these guys in a corner and told them they had to swing uphill or else they’re wrong… you may have been deprived of some of the better talents the game has ever seen. Some examples of “swing down” guys are Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Joe Mauer, and Mike Trout. Nice group of “idiots” that didn’t know how to hit right?
On the other hand, there is a more technical way to teach baseball. There are so many players that have revamped their swings to find more power and reach new potential by elevating the ball more. The biomechanical truth of the swing is that elite hitters have a slight uphill swing, that is a fact. To match the plane of the pitch and open your timing window as a hitter, you must have that slight uphill path. Some people get sensitive about how to achieve this. Some great hitters I’ve heard speak from this more literal approach to hitting are- Ted Williams, J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge, and Joey Votto. Another phenomenal group of “dummies”.
The fact of the matter is always application. They are both right and wrong equally. You must approach the individual and not be lazy. The same goes for throwing at someone. If someone goes spike up on your star shortstop and that guy gets a fastball off the butt cheek- that’s even Steven. Brush it off and get back to the game (now if that pitch creeps up by the shoulders we start to have problems).
When it comes to players “pimping” homers or pitchers pounding their chests, that’s a simple application of the golden rule- don’t do it if you don’t want someone to do it back. It’s a part of the game that makes it great. If everyone played like robots then it would look like no one cares and if no one cares about winning or their performance, then the World Series wouldn’t matter. No one would watch. If something is too over the top guys look like idiots anyways, isn’t that punishment enough? If someone hits a homer and slides into home plate, they’re going to get eaten alive in the clubhouse. A lot of these things police themselves but we turn them into stories because we don’t see what happens behind closed doors.
The duality of baseball is just another thing that makes the game so unique and so available for everyone. We need to leave sweeping generalizations at the door for this game to reach its potential and its audience. We need electric players like Fernando Tatis Jr. just as much as we need players like Paul Goldschmidt. Both are fantastic talents but some might be more reserved with their emotions on the field, most of the time you get more consistent performance from those who are consistent with their emotions.
Old School vs. New School came into play a ton with the Minnesota Twins last year. Many argued that the decisions came from an iPad and perhaps they did. I truly don’t know or care. What I do know is that the two times through the order cap on Archer and Bundy spoiled a postseason trip. Our bullpen was good in the second half. Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan had more stress put on them than Bartolo Colon’s belt buckle. The best-case scenario this year was five innings from Archer and Bundy, then cashing the pen. What happens to your horses at the top? If they are less than great, they give the ball to a worn-out bullpen. High-end starting pitchers love that...
The statistics don’t lie, the back of the rotation stunk the third time through the order, and that's ok but you must build a pitching staff to match. Either you have swing guys in the bullpen who are available for two-three good innings, or you have to have starting pitchers you trust to go three times through the lineup. We saw the current build of the pitching staff wasn’t sustainable for 162 and we paid for it by coughing up a division crown in the second half.
Analytics don’t lie or tell truths; they are data points and you’re a fool if you don’t look at the data available to you. What seems to be the disconnect is applying these numbers and the forward-thinking to building the roster. We saw that disconnect with the Twins staff last year, you get a jumbled mess and everyone is mad at everyone. To have a great baseball team you need old school and new school. They both are good when applied properly, so you don’t have to pick sides. When someone asks, “bacon or sausage?” you just say yes.

Maeda was acquired in early 2020 in the three team trade that sent Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers, He had a career year in 2020, posting his lowest ERA and FIP and his highest ERA+ and K/9 which led to a second place finish in the cy young voting.  For the first time since Johan Santana, it looked like the Twins had found their ace. 
In 2021 however, Maeda was not quite the same. His ERA and WHIP jumped significantly and in September he underwent Tommy John surgery, ending his season. There was some belief that Maeda would return late in the 2022 season to some capacity, but the Twins scaled back his recovery process effectively ending that possibility. 
Given the extra months of recovery, it is expected that Maeda will be available on opening day. At the moment, Maeda slots in as the 3rd or 4th starter in the rotation but that could fluctuate drastically. 
Both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs project Maeda to finish with 70-80 innings pitched which would be substantially lower than his last full season and most likely has him as a long reliever. 
W L ERA G GS IP     H ER HR BB SO
5 4 4.25 18 15 82.7 76 39 11 29 81
 
Year Tm Age W L W-L% ERA SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Rel 2023 Proj. 35 4 3 .571 4.06 1 71.0 65 35 32 9 22 1 71 4 0 2 295 1.225 8.2 1.1 2.8 9.0 3.23 49% Both websites suggest the Maeda is due for regression even after a disappointing 2021. 
There are multiple factors contributing to this. The most obvious one is that fact that Maeda won't have pitched in almost 20 months so his overall health and effectiveness have dropped. He is almost 35 years old and coming off of a major arm surgery which certainly explains his lack of innings pitched in the projections.
There is still reason to believe that he could be effective. 

Maeda is relying on his fastball less and less so while the velocity and spin are disappointing, it won't factor in as much. 
Despite his poor season, his chase rate was elite - in the 89th percentile - while is similar to Julio Urias and even better than guys like Gerrit Cole and Brandon Woodruff. His barrel and whiff percentages were also well above average. 
A similar case to Maeda's would be Justin Verlander. In 2020, Verlander underwent Tommy John surgery at age 37. He missed the rest of the 2020 season and the entire 2021 season. As a 39 year old, he returned and had arguably the best season of career and won CY Young. While Verlander and Maeda are by no means the same pitcher, it is interesting to see that older pitchers are still able to recover from Tommy John and not let it impact their following season.
While I believe that Baseball Reference and FanGraphs are underselling his innings pitched in 2023, I don't expect him to return to his 2020 form. I see him finishing as our 4th or 5th starter with similar numbers to 2021. 
Regardless of my thoughts, Kenta Maeda is crucial to the team's success in 2023. If the Twins are competing for a playoff spot, having Maeda provides significant depth to a rotation that desperately needs it. 
 
 
 

Alright, Twins fans... time to put your money where your mouth is. If it's all about spending money, if it's all about pushing the budget where it "should be", if it's all about signing a pitcher, once he receives his imminent release, it's time to sign Trevor Bauer.
You're sick and tired of the low-risk pitching signings with no ceiling? Here ya go. An arm with ace-type stuff, a wild amount of baggage, and every player I know has hated him more than getting leftover concessions for the post-game spread. 
On Thursday, Major League Baseball announced that an arbitrator reduced the suspension of Trevor Bauer, which has placed the Dodgers in an uncomfortable position that will force their hand sooner rather than later; likely his release. The Dodgers have until January 6th to add him to the 40-man roster, trade him or release him. Happy Holidays to the Dodgers front office... They have been tight-lipped on his future likely in hopes of acquiring a piece in a trade for Bauer. 
We have seen this play out in a similar fashion in the NFL with the more than cringe-worthy Deshaun Watson scenario. Media backlash and less than stellar performance from a player with layers of rust. I wanted nothing to do with Trevor Bauer before the suspension and I want even less to do with him and his vlog now.
For all our fans slamming the table for we need pitching or we need an ace... here's your opportunity, do you really just want pitching that bad? Or does it actually matter where the money goes and who walks into the clubhouse? As a lifelong Twins fan, if it takes bringing in a guy like this, I'd rather not win and honestly, we'd be better off with less talent and a better clubhouse. We live in a world where everything has turned into WWE. It doesn't matter how you make people feel anymore, you're just rewarded for making people feel something.
In my experience playing with guys who have been 1st round picks, played in The Show, or never saw the field in college, one of my favorite things about baseball players is when people ask- "What was playing with 'insert players name' like?" The first thing people say is either "Great dude" or "Eh... kinda sucks to be around". People that didn't play always want to know how good people were and then ballplayers tell you what kind of guy they are. It's fascinating. For whatever reason, when you're in the clubhouse with guys it's almost subconscious, your first instinct is 'How does this person make you feel?' and I love that about baseball.
Maybe it's my Holiday spirit showing through but I want to see us get back to being remembered for the right reasons. Hold a door open for someone, tell someone you love them, and brush the snow off your neighbor's car. These are the things that make humans great. We can consciously make decisions for the better and we can choose to do right. I had the honor of playing for the winningest coach in Big Ten history, and an even better human being than a coach- John Anderson (go gophers). The quote he beat into us that will stick with me forever- "No one will remember your batting average, your ERA, or how many awards you won. Your teammates will remember how you made them feel and the relationships you built here." Let's take a step back from the "notice me" culture we have built and get back to putting others before ourselves.
This winter, be a good person and say no to Trevor Bauer. He can make $10,000 a month playing in Mexico, that's still a nice living.
 
 

Sometimes I like to get lost on baseball-reference.com just to see what I can find. Today I found myself looking at the Minnesota Twins draft classes since 2000. Here are a few thoughts that I had:
The 2014 and 2015 draft by the Minnesota Twins looks like it will be not good. Like really not good. There is still a small bit a hope though trade trees and maybe one or two guys breaking through it might be just "ok".
The 2011 draft class looks like one of the worst draft classes the Twins have had since 2000 that we can fully judge. Seven players out of 50 taken by the Twins in 2011 have played in the MLB. 
Dereck Rodriguez Round 6 1.3 career war.
Rodriguez pitched 7 2/3 innings with the Twins in 2022. He has no trade tree.

 
Jason Wheeler Round 8 -.01 war.
Jason Wheeler has no trade tree.

 
Adam McCreery Round 14 -.01 war.
Adam McCreery did not sign with the Twins after being drafted.

 
Brian Anderson Round 20 9.4 war.
Brian Anderson did not sign with the Twins. He has carved out perfectly fine career in part time role, but I think he will have hard time finding a MLB contract this offseason. 

 
Nick Burdi round 24 -0.6 war.
Nick Burdi did not sign with the Twins in 2011. He did get drafted again by the Twins 2014 in Round 2 and did sign. He was taken by the Phillies in the 2017 Rule 5 draft. Two weeks ago, he was selected in the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 draft. 

 
Chris Mazza Round 27 -.02 war.
No trade tree.

 
Kyle Barraclough round 40 2.2 war.
Barraclough did not sign with the Twins in 2011. He did sign as a free agent in 2021 and pitched 13 not-good innings.

Three players have had a positive WAR. Only one had a positive war for the Twins and that was Dereck Rodriguez in 2022 with a 0.2 WAR. 
Other items worth noting or questioning:
The Twins drafted Kolten Wong and J.D. Martinez but neither signed. They went to college and were later drafted much higher. Will Byron Buxton pass Joe Mauer in WAR? If 2011, is the worst draft class since 2000 is the 2001 draft with Joe Maurer the best? Maybe 2012 with Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, and Duffey?
 

The great American poet Chester Bennington once said "I tried so hard and got so far, but in the end, it doesn't even matter."
Every time that a notable (read: league-average) player signs with a team other than Minnesota, we hear the same complaints: "Typical Twins, always in the mix but never get it done."
Why is it that almost every time a guy signs, it's not with the Twins? Well, we can start with there being 29 other teams, so surely the club can't sign every player they're interested in.
However, it's not reasonable to expect the Twins to sign 1 in every 30 free agents, either. That's far too low. So where is the line? How many misses is too many misses?
For an elite player, almost every team would be interested in their services, for the right price. Oakland and Pittsburgh aren't going to be writing a $360,000,000 check for Arson Judge anytime soon, though. Some teams also wouldn't be in the mix for a specific player at their price because they have someone else at that position that isn't worth replacing for the money involved.
Then there's the matter of more, let's just say, role players. Guys that no one is salivating for, but teams are interested in their services nonetheless to fill roster gaps, if they have room. Take Michael Brantley, for example. The Angels would have money to sign him, but as an almost DH-only player at this point in his career, the Angels wouldn't be interested in him displacing Ohtani.
So let's take a situation where the Twins are hypothetically in on Dansby Swanson. He was tied to Chicago, Boston, LA, Atlanta, St. Louis,  San Francisco, and Minnesota over the offseason. So with Minnesota being one of seven teams, all things being equal, the Twins had a 14% chance to sign him. If the Twins were tied to seven Dansby Swanson-like players (one of seven in the mix) this offseason, would you be satisfied if they signed one of them?
What about someone like Josh Bell? Almost any team has a spot in some regard for a switch-hitting slugger. Obviously, we can throw out teams that would be unlikely to pay anyone 16.5MM right now like Oakland, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, or Kansas City, or a team like Houston post-Abreu signing and the White Sox that doesn't need that type of player at current. Still, we're down to something like 18 teams that would be interested, at the right price. Should we be happy with the Twins getting 6% of those types of free agents, 1 of every 18? Probably not, especially if we only want to consider players the Twins made a real run at.
Building off of that, how much should the context of the Twins being a mid-to-small market team affect your expectations? Given that they're competing in this case with five big-market teams and the Cardinals, one would assume that they would be less likely to put up the money, based on budgetary reasons. So should you expect to see the team snag fewer than the average?
I don't actually have an answer for this question. I'm mostly just thinking out loud. Obviously, there shouldn't be an expectation that the team signs all of the guys they pursue, or even most of them. But there has to be a line somewhere. It may be lower than emotion might tell you, but it also may be higher than logic might tell you.

To say Joey Gallo was bad last year would be like saying a turd isn't particularly tasty... it hardly describes the full truth. He hit .160 with 19 homers and a .638 OPS. Not to mention the 163 punch-outs in 410 plate appearances, that's just shy of a 40% strike-out rate. Absurd. His defense took a step back as well last year but inconsistent playing time can do that to an outfielder in terms of in-game jumps. On the surface, this sign makes little to no sense with the roster in its current state and if you don't believe in Joey Gallo as a player, the fact that he could improve, and if deployed properly that he is a productive player. HOWEVER, I would now like to present to you the Max Kepler situation
I love Max Kepler, as a young player I thought he was a candidate to grow into a player to hit .275-.300, threaten 30 jacks a year and play very good defense. You can't use a scouting report from 2014 to evaluate your talent, you can't think emotionally as a front office. You have to call a spade a spade. Max Kepler has had a combined OPS of .692 over the last two seasons (936 plate appearances) that's below the league average even for last year in a historically terrible year for offense (in '21 league average was .728). OPS is the easiest way to see how good a hitter is, if you want one statistic to rule them all... that is it. Kepler does not lift the ball well and that is fine but it has seriously limited his offensive ceiling and disbanding the shift is not going to be the sole reason to raise his batting average, he flat-out has to play better. The bottom line is he is a player that had an outlier season and has yet to improve in 8 seasons. 
Between Gallo and Kepler if you look at OPS, advantage Gallo. Even with Kepler having a clunker season last year Gallo was not far behind (.638 vs .666). I get Gallo strikes out way more than anyone in the world at the pro level but he could be a great fit. A lineup can only suffer so many Ks before it becomes wildly unproductive and frustrating regardless of OPS or whatever positive statistic they can provide. It's also a one-year deal, if the guy stinks they aren't going to play him there is hardly any risk. The people that say 'Wallner could do what Gallo does', it's a fair point but do you honestly think the scouting department didn't have that conversation? They clearly grade Gallo as a better player at this moment and that's fine. It's one year and Wallner could win the job and Gallo can ride pine all year, we are not married to him in any way shape, or form.
All this being said, with the addition of Gallo I become very hesitant to trade Arraez. With a guy like Gallo, the protection you need in the lineup for him is a player like Arraez. Strikeouts are bad, I hate seeing a guy punch out with less than two outs and a guy on 3rd more than anyone. I truly believe a lineup has a breaking point for how many strikeouts it can take before it becomes unproductive but I'll let some guy who has never played baseball find that statistic. A lineup can still be elite with Joey Gallo in it but other hitters in the lineup need to have some bat-to-ball skill. 
It's a long walk for a short drink of water but I lean towards liking the Gallo signing, we will have to use our personnel properly or he needs to improve dramatically. You will need to scheme your lineup around him, having Gallo hit 9th and Arraez hit leadoff would be how you would have to write it. Gallo and Kepler were both terrible last year, both will likely not be Twins in '24. I think the lineup has more potential with Gallo but if you have potential that just means you haven't done s**t yet. Regardless if your rightfielder is Kepler or Gallo they both need to take a considerable step forward from their recent performance. I think everyone is well within their right to be critical of this signing but you can't honestly say this signing isn't steeped in short-term potential. Sadly, more potential than it would've had with my guy Max Kepler.

I am sure at this point WHOEVER the Twins woudl go and sign a good chunk of us will complain.  At least it is a move, but does it really make sense?
Gallo does not change the trajectory of the Twins, he could be decent, he could be good, but if he doesnt change the trajectory, is there really a reason to sing him? Don't we already have logjam... or at least a good number of options for OF/DH spots?
Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Wallner,   We have Garlick (expendable) on the roster, we have players at AAA who are close as well.
 
Since 2015 here are his BA...  .204/.040/.209/.206/.253/.181/.199/.160  CAREER .199!!!!
He hits less than Miguel Sano, actually strikes out MORE (if you can beleive that) so we pay him $11M.  
Where does Gallo play? RF is his best position.  but we have Kepler.  He could be DH, but didnt we want to get away from having a primary DH?
If you say, well that makes Kepler expendable yoru nuts!!!  We are now paying Gallo MORE then Kepler,   Kepler's BAD years are .220, that is a career year for Gallo.  I knwo batting average is not the biggest thing, but making contact and getting on base is!!
Again, maybe Gallo has another career year at hits 40HR with a .230 avg.  and you want to talk about health???  2019 he played in 70 games, 2020 57, he did get in 153 games in 2021 and then 126 last year.
 
So, no better than what we have (no better than Sano who we DFA), not a position of need, does not have a consistent history of playing 150 games.  OF COURSE lets go ahead and pay him $11M!!!  
The banning the shift aint gonna do anything against K's.
ANY sense that this FO has a clue is out the window... throw a low ball offer at Carlos Correa (relative to current market) and OVERPAY for Gallo.  BRILLIANT!!!
 
Lets not pay $13M for Noah Syndegaard, lets pay $11M for Joey Gallo.
Regardless of the results Gallo does this year, he could be MVP and I will stand 100% by the call that this is a HORRIBLE signing and shows incompetence. 
 
Imagine that He was a draft pick and a prospect with the Rangers while Levine was in Texas just continues to show how myopic this FO is. There was obviously scouting  that had Levine like him to draft him, is he still stuck on those old scouting reports? does he think he can get the "true potential" out of him?
 
I challenge ANYONE to provide ANY solid, coherent defense that says this signing is anything but horrid.  
 
Anyways, LET's GO TWINS!!!

As the offseason has unfolded I’ve been softening my stance on the Twins making a push for Dansby Swanson. As a shortstop and leader in the clubhouse, sometimes the best ability is availability. He has missed two games in the last three years which is WILD with how players are managed in Major League Baseball. 
 
Statistically, with Correa landing in potentially the worst hitter’s yard in baseball I would put money on Dansby having a better offensive season than Carlos Correa. Correa is the best defensive shortstop in baseball until proven otherwise. Dansby Swanson is an excellent defender, and it would be the slightest drop off in comparison to Correa. If you just look at the back of their baseball cards, over the last three years you can make the argument Swanson is the pick with more RBI and homers. Now, the OPS and career WAR tell us Correa is a better hitter and player overall, but the argument can be had.
 
When you factor in that Swanson could be snatched up for less than 20 million… now I’m listening. If you can bump down the years compared to the other shortstops, then boost the average annual value (AAV), 7 years at 145 million you get a proven shortstop leaning towards elite defense, 25-28 HR pop, .260-.275 average, championship pedigree, and potentially the best head of hair in baseball. 
 
He’s not Correa and he will not bring the electricity, but not many do. He will hurt the wallet much less but the gap between Correa and Swanson is much smaller than we think. What he lacks in flair and big-name draw he makes up for in being the most reliable shortstop in baseball over the last three years. If ownership is not willing to break out of its budget shell, then this contract and this player makes a ton of sense. Rodon does not want to play in Minnesota, but we can push AAV on him because of a deal like this with Swanson and make it competitive. I was totally averse to signing Swanson at the beginning of the off-season, but I think he makes a ton of sense for a team that can’t stay healthy and doesn’t want to bend the knee on AAV or years.

The team is in a tricky spot following the winter meetings. They allegedly remain in play for Carlos Correa, but their backup options are getting swallowed up and their 50M remains unspent. Even with Correa, this team will have some challenges going into 2023. Winning the Central can’t be the goal, especially with the state of the competition being as sorry as it is. To be a real force in the AL, the Twins need a few things to happen, Correa or not:
The Astros take a step back. The Astros are a juggernaut. It might seem like the Yankees are too, but ask any Yankees fan and they will admit they had no chance in the ALCS against Houston; they were totally outclassed. Since divisional play, the torch in the AL has passed from Cleveland to the Yankees to the Red Sox to the Astros (you could make the argument for the Royals in 2014-2015 if you’re generous). The Astros have built some more runway, as well, with 2023 looking incredibly bright. Alex Bregman still isn’t thirty, and all of Yordan Álvarez, Jeremy Peña and Kyle Tucker will play next year at 26 or younger. Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, José Urquidy and Luis Garcia are all 28 or younger. They play crisp and confident, and free agents know their numbers will improve in Houston; whether by altering a pitchers mix to perfection or getting to hit in front of Yordan. The only way the Astros aren’t favorites come October is if the aforementioned Yordan is hurt, they lose one of their starters and Ryan Pressley loses a tick of his stuff. Anything short of that is going to be near impossible to beat, regardless if the next four items on my list were to happen.
The starting pitching takes a step forward They can get Carlos Rodón and do that, or hope to get lucky by rolling out Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda off Tommy John, and Bailey Ober. Consecutively. If Joe Ryan had excellent command he could be a playoff caliber starter, but he doesn’t have excellent command. Yet? As much as I like Louie Varland, SWR and the prospect of Jordan Balazovic bouncing back, not even the most optimistic prospect evals have them starting game one or even two in a playoff series. I really hope Marco Raya has a nice year.
Get big RBI totals from two of Miranda, Kirilloff and Larnach This isn’t about RBIs being valuable as much as a high number of them would indicate a lot of involvement from this crop of young hitters. José Miranda has proven more durable than the two outfielders, but they wouldn’t surprise anyone if one of them hit .280 with twenty-two home runs next year. Depending on all three is folly, but getting two middle of the order hitters from the group lengthens the lineup and puts less pressure on Buxton, Polanco and Arraez.
Jhoan Durán stays healthy He hasn’t had a long track record of health and he is THE bullpen. The good news is that Durán got stronger as the year went on last year, but any young pitcher throwing 103 with a history of arm injuries can be a ticking time bomb.
Ryan Jeffers is an All-star  This may seem like a shocker but it wouldn’t take a lot for Jeffers to suddenly seem like a building block again. Maybe he gets a little hot streak and gets shielded from enough righties to be at .270/.320/450 at the break (Ends up at .255/.310/.410 or so). Jose Trevino started the All-star game in 2022 and ended up with a .671 OPS, for comparison- if the Twins are in contention in July, Jefers gets extra credit for “leading the staff.” The hitting lends legitimacy to that claim. Further, a homegrown catcher is the truest expression of how a team wants to run its on-field operations. They come up in the system learning a certain style of play that is background noise to the talents of the other positions. Jeffers is gritty, emotive and solid defensively, which, in theory, validates their organizational philosophy. But this ephemeral stuff works a lot better if the player in question can punish pitchers from the bottom of the lineup. In related news, there is a reason Cleveland isn’t interested in bringing Austin Hedges back. Long story short, if Jeffers hits to the point where the opposing pitcher has to think about how to attack him, that’s a major win for the Twins.
Like the two New York teams, the Twins making a big splash in free agency just gets them back to where they were (which maybe isn’t the worst thing). Signing Correa and leaving the Giants and Cubs to fight over the average-ish hitting Dansby Swanson would be a coup, but as we saw last year, it guarantees nothing.