chopper0080

I guess my position is that I don't feel like significant progress has been made. I don't see an influx of young core players that I am confident in. I don't feel like we have ever been a serious AL Championship or World Series contender with this group. I think they have made the Twins mostly watchable and a team that might be able to win the division, but we haven't been nor do I feel we are on the way to being a contender. This organization payrolls and budgets like a mid market squad and yet Minneapolis has a ton of businesses and growth. We still speak about young superstar players like if they are really good we can never afford them long term. That is a poverty franchise mindset. I don't know that anyone has confidence in our minor league system to consistently produce talent even if they may have hope in it. I don't believe managers are a huge impact which means I can go either way with Rocco. All this said, I am a casual so maybe I am underselling the farm but I don't think I really am. The convo around Berrios and Buxton has really bummed me out as I thought the new stadium was supposed to enable us to retain our young superstar players. Instead, as I said earlier, the convo is that unless they take a below market deal, they are gone. It is just tough for me to be ok with being watchable as the bar for success.

The issue is that both the starting rotation and the bullpen look to be a mess. If the bullpen was solid I would think there would be a decent path to success. Trying to rebuild both is a different story.

All of this and I would say he is still the best player on our current roster...which tells you about our roster

I think you need good players to contend. We have very few good players right now and we just traded one in Berrios. I understand the injury concern but who else are we going to sign? The newest Josh Donaldson? More Michael Pinedas? Those guys are ok, but not players who are going to be considered slightly better than average. There is a reason the Yankees smash us and it is because our talent is just not comparable. Also, someone tell me why we have so much confidence in a farm system that has struggled to produce much of anything recently outside of "potential". In fact, two of the best things it has produced are Berrios (traded) and Buxton (whom people are concerned with keeping). We are a completely "middle" MLB franchise right now. Not good enough at developing minor league talent like the A's or Rays and not spending like the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and such. Someone tell me how Jorge Polanco isn't our 2nd best player after Buxton and how that is not a huge problem.

I guess it is not shocking to me that fans would be less patient with a declining vet FA who they have no investment in vs signing a young, home grown player they have watched develop for 3 to 4 years. I feel like that is why we have posts on here apologizing to Polanco and not discussing how Donaldson has been an ok investment so far. Fans are invested in Polanco.

I guess my question is, if you aren't going to sign your own developmental players like Jose Berrios or Byron Buxton long-term, who are you going to sign? My understanding was that tax payer dollars going to build a beautiful stadium was to ensure the Twins were not the Oakland A's of the north.

I get frustrated by messing with guys who are running hot. -If you bring up Miranda, keep him at 3B where he is comfortable. See what he can do on the big stage for 30 days. -Don't mess with Polanco right now. Leave him at 2B. Polanco at 2B is like the one thing I think we can count on as a positive heading into next year. -The rest of it are just details IMO. 1B and DH and LF are just details. Figure them out between Simmons, Arraez, Donaldson and Sano. (and Rooker and Cave I guess)

Keep him at 2B.

Not a traditional DH but that is probably the spot you would want him to be consistently to get the most out of him.

In my experience, players tend to start with the dollar amount and then weigh the market and culture and competitiveness of their options. Also, professional athletes tend to like routine and familiarity which causes them to stay with their current team if all things are equal.

I am not going to claim that I have specific inside information regarding Berrios, but I will share overall info regarding pro athletes and contract extensions/negotiations. If the offer is right and it is done prior to an expiring contract year or an arbitration year, players are consistently willing to take the money now vs later. It is when you quibble with them regarding their worth or fail to offer a quality dollar amount that they choose to bet on themselves. I am confident in saying Berrios's agent either asked for a number or gave the Twins a number. I don't know if Berrios asked for 30 or if the Twins threw out a number what that was, but their reaction is why Berrios and his agent decided to put out there they would be testing free agency. My guess is the sides were not close.

(Edit: just to get back to convo regarding baseball and focus less on debating the meaning of overpay) "And yes, if you project Lance's price per inning pitched per year to Berrios, it comes out to around 25 mil per year, but I feel 5 mil over that to get to 30 is a tolerable overpay and does not hold back the franchise at all."

Also, regarding Rosario, we had Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, and Kiriloff on the roster or primed for a call up. We don't have that in starting pitching IMO.

Except Lance has never more than 128 innings in a season since 2017 while Jose has never pitched less than 145 outside of 2020. In fact, if I average innings pitched per season (removing 2019 for Lance and replacing it with his 2015 season) Lance averages 123.83 innings and 7.6 wins while Jose averages 179.13 innings and 13.3 wins. And yes, if you project Lance's price per inning pitched per year to Berrios, it comes out to around 25 mil per year, but 5 mil to get to 30 is far from an overpay.

Sub 4 era since 2017 with the exception of the 2020 season. 20+ starts every year since 2017 except 2020. Over 10 wins every year since 2017 except 2020. WHIP under 1.23 every since 2017 except 2020. I agree that he may never be one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball. But I can't say that he won't be one of the 15 best, and we have not shown any ability to develop a replacement for him. I am willing to pay 5 mil over production per year to ensure my franchise retains it's reliable and solid young pitcher. Now we just hope one of our pitching prospects can develop into a player close to as good as Berrios. Competitive teams don't fret over 5 mil extra to ensure they have a top core of young players.

But what is really overpaying? If it is 2 mil more per year to ensure your young, dependable and talented pitcher stays with the team, why is that a deal breaker? A 5 year deal pays him to 33 which is not old for a pitcher so you likely don't see a drop off in production. It is an area of weakness without significant talent ready to replace him so you aren't just creating another hole that you will end up spending 15 mil on a replacement to fill. He has also stayed healthy so even if he tops out at a fringe #1 SP, you at least have that to count on. I understand not giving out 10 year deals. I also understand that teams want to not overpay for players. That said, the Twins failed in letting it get to this point by trying to pinch pennies instead of retaining a young player who should have stayed a part of their core.

Here is the failure. The Twins let go of a top 25 starting pitcher who is under 30 and has remained very healthy over his career when they have very little quality starting pitching. People will argue that he wouldn't re-sign with Minnesota but I challenge that. If the Twins would have offered him 30 mil per year, I think he definitely would have signed that deal. Before anyone balks at that number, that is the cost of young talented pitching and it isn't getting lower. It would have made him a top 10 paid SP but that isn't a huge overpay when considering his age and consistency. The Twins could have also chose to offer him a significant contract extension instead of letting it go to arbitration and trying to get a deal. Instead of doing either, the Twins tried to play it frugally (cheap) like they consistently do which leads to talented players heading out the door and the team once again searching for quality starting pitching.

About as good of compensation as you could ask for. Now we will see if the Twins can develop these players to generate a decent return.

A couple thoughts. I would prefer the Twins keep Kepler. I don't believe they are going to get a return that is worth getting rid of his versatility, level of play and contract value. I would prefer the Twins to keep Buxton. Even if he is oft-injured, he is the closest thing we have to a super-star and his contract demands don't seem exorbitant from what has been reported. I would love to see Donaldson traded just to get a nice look at Miranda but I don't see it happening and it isn't the end of the world. I have a tough time seeing the Twins keeping Berrios just because I believe they will get a really good offer. I don't know that it will be an over-the-top one, but definitely a quality deal.

I am not sad if they can't find a good offer for Kepler and keep him. He is exactly the type of player the Twins need to keep around with their financial restrictions and I don't believe it is in their best interest to trade him in general.

When you are losing because of controllable errors vs lack of talent, that is when coaching changes need to be looked at.

To the original post, I don't necessarily believe that anyone in the front office needs to be fired as they seem to be working within the parameters of our ownership. It isn't their fault they don't have the ability to go "all in" and acquire the top end talent teams need to be able to compete.

The Minnesota Twins have been a poverty franchise for a long time. Unless there is a concerted effort to make a change, I doubt it happens and letting players like this go will stay the norm. Is it disappointing, yes. Is it surprising, no. Someone else said that the players we tend to sign are those who are willing to take some sort of below market deal at that point in time. It doesn't seem like either of these players are interested in doing so and therefore probably leave.

I don't believe the Dozier situation is that difficult. You have an inconsistent player who is playing well right now. You trade him, get what you can for him, and move Polanco into the starting lineup. If you can raise up the return by packaging something with Dozier, that is great, but if not, oh well. Dozier is a similar situation to what the Twins went through with Willingham, Perkins, Hughes, and Suzuki. In all of those other situations, the Twins held onto the player because they could not get value for them. Well, the Twins fail to recognize that you are never going to be able to get the value for these player's max production. But you also don't want to put yourself in a position to get nothing for them (which we have been excellent at doing). Either sell for a lottery ticket prospect, or sell for a higher ceiling player whose value is low or get a vet at position where your depth is not great. I can't imagine anyone is selling bullpen arms, but if you could get one, the Twins should do it. The point is that something is only as valuable as what someone else is willing to pay for it. We need to unload these players, and it is better for the Twins long term to get something and move on rather than being consumed with getting our preceived value for them. I would keep our pitching unless someone wants one of the starters. I would trade Plouffe and Dozier. I would hold onto Nunez and Escobar because that is an ok middle infield rotation and is worth more than you would get for them in a trade. Head into next season with Sano, Polanco and Mauer in the infield and figure the rest out. The outfield should work itself out long term but Sano at 3B should allow the Twins to get more athleticism and cover more ground. We should, at worst, have a solid defensive outfield with the other players we have.

For any of those on the fence...last nights lineup sums it up 1-Nunez 2-Grossman 3-Dozier 4-Ploufee 5-Park 6-Escobar 7-Kepler 8-Centeno 9-Buxton SP Pat Dean If that lineup doesn't deserve to get a front office fired, I don't know what does.