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old nurse

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Everything posted by old nurse

  1. old nurse
    If I recall correctly there was an acting GM with only a slim chance of retaining the job. There might have been a long sit down. So far this season it has produced 15 more wins. Good job, Rob.
  2. old nurse
    How are the Twins going to enforce a weight limit on a minimum wage worker?
  3. old nurse
    The view outside of the ropes is different than what you see inside the ropes. A bit further out you see the bigger picture. Inside the ropes you can find more detail. The argument that being let inside the ropes makes you somehow less objective, more homerish, in the writing is blown when it is pointed out that Souhan is unfair to players with injuries. The article is older, critical (unfairly) yet Souhan still moves freely inside the ropes. The first piece by Souhan will not win any awards for writing. To make it twist proof would require more column inches than any newspaper would allow. I do not know the newspaper process to know if the editor shortened the piece. The retort piece would have been a little more palatable had he just called out Gleeman and the twitter people leaving comments. The second piece in my opinion should not have made it past an editor unless the editor wanted the attention for the paper. If Gleeman did indeed say that Souhan called Sano fat, Gleeman should be ripped as a journalist for the twisting. That will not be done by the writers outside the velvet ropes. That objectivity appears lost.
  4. old nurse
    3 ER in 6 gives you a chance when your hitters come through. That was the problem with the Twins' playoff teams. The starters could get you that level. Your 3-4 starters need to give you that level also. That ability is really hit and miss right now, with the "hit" rate is below the Mendoza line. Santana could beat the Yankees. Before he could pitch again the playoffs might be over. Hitting seems to be carrying the team right now. That might not fare so well against a Houston team that appears to have pitchers with good seasons.
  5. old nurse
    80% You need to feel like your starter gives you a chance to win against the best teams in the playoffs
  6. old nurse
    Pat Mahomes, Vic Abury Pete Filson, Jim Deshailes, PJ Walters, and Ricky Nolasco are among the many that are thankful for short memories.
  7. old nurse
    Kyle Gibson benefits from the sad fact that there is a dearth of pitching. The just under 3m a year contract is not money sucking. What he would get in arbitration is the question. Salazar for the Indians did not get much of a raise with way better numbers last year. Of the top of my head I can't think of a comparable to Gibson, hence Salazar's arb negotiation would lead me to believe Gibson will not get much of a raise. Much to the chagrin of many here, Gibson will actually be cheap enough to keep. Cheap enough to get a prospect for if Mejia, Mays and a prospect emerge during the season next year. Colon could also be back if he does not get to 244 and retires. Of course if they think Slegers can fill the role that Gibson plays, Gibson is gone. That role would be sinkerball pitcher that keeps you in a game and eats innings. On too many nights, Gibson had not done that. In a universe where there are only 84 pitchers who have pitched 120 major league innings this year Gibson would fit the criteria for second best starter as only Santana has pitched that many innings. By bwar, not even in the rotation
  8. old nurse
    You stated that Santana could cost a third round draft pick. The only way that happens is if Santana gets a qualifying offer.That would be likely. How many players get qualifying offers? Last year thee were about a dozen. If the Twins are giving up only the third round pick for Santana they either tanked so bad the rest of this season that they dropped past 10 teams and signed to QO free agents, or signed 3. The AAV of the contracts handed out to QO players was 18 million. IIRC the average length of contact was for 4 years. What is so hard for you to understand about that? Adding 3 contracts that would likely be closer to a 60 million a year addition is not going to happen. Yjay would be getting the payroll to the 140 million range. If Santana, and Dozier are traded, Escobar and Gibson are non tendered and Phil Hughes decides it is not worth trying to earn 26.2 million then there would be a chance. Realistically, that is not going to happen.
  9. old nurse
    The Twins have 70.4 million committed to contracts next year before any options or arbitration. That is Mauer, Santana, Hughes, Dozier, Castro and Park. Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Mejia, Buxton, Berrios, Polanco, Rodgers, Duffy, Hildenberger, Busenitz, Orourke and Vargas are pre arb and get about 550,000. That is 19 players, a few not likely to be with the club, Grossman, May, Adrianza, Pressly, Gibson, Escobar, Tonkin and Gimmenz are the Arb eligible. Depending on the initial discussions, play of some in September half of those will be back. Unless they decide to keep both Escobar and Gibson that is a likely payroll around 80 million. The team is not going to go nuts with long term contracts. The non return on the Nolasco and Hughes contracts. The history of declining return on the Mauer and Morneau extensions as well as the Hughes, Suzuki, Pelfrey extensions should make the Pohlads fairly shy of long term deals for older players. The team will sign one. Signing 3 as the OP thinks is likely out of the question. Twins Revenue is not as Forbes says. From 2011 to last year the team lost a million paid attendance, They have decreased revenue per fan from $53 to 43. Despite this 70 million drop in revenue, the Twins gained in estimated revenue by 40 million. Something does not add up.
  10. old nurse
    Negativity sells. Look at any thread that starts with a rip on something versus a positive spin one. The negativity goes on and on, the positive threads draw few responses. Management and established players are the first target. Players that are fringe are the third target.
  11. old nurse
    The thought that the Twins would sign 3 players who would cost a draft choice makes your article one of wishful thinking rather than one of analysis That would mean the Twins are signing 3 of the top dozen players. Last year they averaged 18 million a season. The Twins are not going to have a 130 million payroll. Mauer and Hughes contracts are not going anywhere. That leaves Santana's 13 million contract. For 5 million more you are not going to gain much.
  12. old nurse
    If you are going to probably give up a first round pick it should be for a four year player. A bat first player 20/m player is not the solution. The money would be better spent elsewhere. A closer and a set up pitcher. Starter and something else.
  13. old nurse
    Pass on a 4 year contract for Santana.
  14. old nurse
    The process of using one tiny bit of information to make a decision is a flawed one. You are correct on the leverage. I should have been using win expectancy numbers.
  15. old nurse
    Statistics from those who spent a lot of time working on them say it was a low leverage situation. You are free do to the work that shows them wrong. In the Tigers game the percentages paid off because of an inconsistent bullpen. Multi factor analysis. The Tigers might not do the same in another situation. You can point out a specific instance but not the general trends. As the next day pointed out, switching from Boshers did not provide a better result. Molitor did as you said. No change in the results.
  16. old nurse
    There is a 13 man bullpen because there are so many starting pitchers not even pitching 6 innings.
  17. old nurse
    Then there is the other factors that seems to escape people. Roster size and the number of games a pitcher can pitch in. Single factor analysis is poor analysis.
  18. old nurse
    A 19% chance of winning is ow leverage.
  19. old nurse
    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/li/ Edit: you can find Fangraphs' description of LI at this link.
  20. old nurse
    Believe what you want. Learn to look it up.
  21. old nurse
    For the chance for Cleveland to win the game.
  22. old nurse
    Although every situation is a leveraged situation, 0.33 is low leverage
  23. old nurse
    The leverage index when Boshered entered was 0.33. Low leverage.
  24. old nurse
    If you repeatedly have a pitcher warmed up just in case you will blow through your pullpen every day because it is not common practice to repeatedly warm up a pitcher. . No win scenarios for the manager.
  25. old nurse
    The people here can set up all of the no win scenarios they want on Molitor. At time when behind Molitor uses his lower leverage relievers about 20 pitches each sort of like a bullpen session. The complainers here have yet to post who was warmed up in the bullpen in the event that Boshers did not get 1 of 2 lefthand hitters out.
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