Oxtung

Of course the reality is that obligation could become a cornerstone upon which the future could be built. That is something that you continually ignore. I thought signing free agents and re-signing your own players were entirely separate things. At least that is what you always try to convince me of.

The Yanks signed Mark Reynolds and while he isn't great I have a hard time imagining them signing another corner infielder. I would guess that door is closed at this point.

Four things about that video: 1) Almost every time a lefty came up to bat I thought, "Holy Crap" there is Ichiro! 2) Check out the leg kick from the batter at 1:19. Awesome. Just Awesome. 3) I especially like the strike out at 1:28. That would be fun to see. 4) This pitcher has way too much emotion for the Twins. Check out 32 seconds into the video.

Thanks for that. It is always good to hear stuff about relief pitchers that aren't well scouted or perhaps it just isn't published.

I'm not a draft expert but taking a bunch of college relief pitchers and trying to turn them into starters seems anything but low-risk or quick to majors. Last year there was not much college starting pitching talent after the top guys so the Twins tried a novel approach to acquire high upside arms. At least that is how I remember the discussions, FWIW. I'm also not sure how one can tell what Bard is since he has hardly pitched. Presumably his talent is still there even if it is delayed.

Of course no where has anyone actually presented any evidence that is the case. On the other hand many sources have mentioned money being the issue....

I'd be shocked if he averaged 24 HR and 44 doubles per season. In fact I'd be shocked if he had even 1 season matching that. That's not to say it couldn't happen but I would be a happy camper!

I agree. Either sign someone of quality or just roll with the young guys. To be clear my last post was what I thought the Twins would do, not what I would do. I think Hendriks probably never will make it as a starter, though I would rather see him than another "value vet". I do wonder though what moving to the pen would do to his stuff. His 90mph fastball would theoretically gain some velocity. It is his best pitch and he would be able to throw it more often. He could also drop his slider which has gotten crushed according to fangraphs.

You two seem to be arguing the same point so I'll respond to you both the same. You are absolutely right that they are different players and different situations. That said, Morneau is a major league baseball player, even if he isn't a star anymore, where as Butera was signed for nothing other than AAA roster filler with the outside chance of being an injury replacement. And he cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. I can not believe, no matter how far Morneau has slipped, that he is worth less Butera. Especially if the Twins are picking up his salary. The logic of my mind says that is impossible. That said, even if they are offering a return similar to Liriano's the deal should still be done. There is no advantage to holding on to Morneau. At least with "prospects" there is a chance they will help us out in future seasons. People came saying the Twins should just say no, why? What advantage does that bring the Twins in this particular case?

Or stand and admire their handy work before making the long, slow trot around the bases.

You forgot Gibson and Correia. My guess the rotation is Correia, FA (could be Pelf), Gibson, Lefty, Deduno. At AAA there will be a fight to the death for rotation spots. May, Meyer, Dean, Darnell, Worley, AAAA Fodder. In fact after writing that I'm not convinced they're going to sign anyone to bolster the rotation. Who is the best lefty on the FA market this season?

Nick I usually enjoy your pieces but I have to say I am a little disappointed in some aspects of this article. There is a definite "the Twins are slow in promoting" slant here and while that might be a deserved critique of the organization in general, it just doesn't hold in this case. The Twins have moved Buxton just as quickly as either J.Upton or Trout. Here are their games played at each level before reaching the majors and the age they were drafted. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [/TD][TD]Rk A A+ AA AAA Total Age Upton 0 113 32 71 0 216 17 Trout 39 86 50 91 0 266 17 Buxton 48 68 55* ?? ?? 163 18 [/TABLE] *Includes 8 games yet to be played in 2013 As you can see Buxton is on the same promotion path. If he is promoted after the first half of the 2014 season to the majors, as you suggest, he will be right on their arrival schedule. Trout made his debut July 8th and Upton August 2nd. As you can see the only difference is the age at which they were drafted not how quickly they have moved. If Buxton was young when he was drafted he would have had the opportunity to reach the majors as a teenager just as Trout and Upton did. Let's just all hope he follows Trout's path once he gets there!

Does anybody have any recent analysis of his stuff? He has been thoroughly dominating and I am curious if it is because he's more advanced or because he is throwing heat or what....

The Twins held Butera for most of the season therefore they would have paid most of his salary. My $150k was just a guess of what was still owed by the dodgers. There are two reasons that i can see that the return for Morneau would be org filler. First the Twins are asking the other team to pay his salary. I would be very irked if this was true. However, if the Twins are picking up his salary and the return is still org filler than his value is less than drew Butera playing in AAA. Does anyone believe that is actually the case? I certainly don't.

This is pointless and frustrating. You seem unwilling to stand by your previous comments. I'll just list my point of view a final time and then walk away from this thread. It is great to see Sano putting up big time stats and being highly ranked. Hopefully that bodes well for his future. However, there have been other highly ranked, stat stuffers that have been pushed quickly to the Majors and failed. Rankings and stats are not everything when it comes to minor league promotion. Prospects fail and succeed based on more than their stats. It is the little things that can make or break a prospect, little things that we can not know because we don't get to see these players on a regular basis. We don't get to know them on a personal level. No matter how much we read or listen to reports and interviews we can't glean enough to make a judgement on a particular player. The only people with enough of the information, and therefore in the best position to make a determination, are the Twins instructors, personnel and staff. I don't know this is the case, but it seems a few of you think that if the Twins don't promote Sano in September or if he isn't the opening day starter at 3B then the Twins have made the wrong decision. That seems illogical. Now, if your argument was that the Twins move prospects slowly as a whole and some of them could be moved quicker, I might be able to get behind that.

Look, I disagree with your premise in this scenario, but it doesn't matter. Since Morneau cleared waivers the only team in the situation your describing is the Atlanta Braves and they sure aren't going to trade for Morneau. My points have been: 1) Morneau's value isn't likely to increase. 2) There is no benefit to the Twins tohold onto Morneau. 3) Ryan should be willing to eat as much of the contract as he needs to in order to achieve the best deal he can. 4) A Morneau whose salary is $0 is worth more than Drew Butera whose salary was ~$150k.

In order for that to be true a nearly free Morneau would be worth less than Butera costing a few hundred thousand dollars. Do you think that is possible?

That's a great sentiment in general, but can you explain to me the value of standing firm and holding Morneau in this case?

I don't see how that changes the equation. Why would you pay more for 30 days less of Morneau? You're also making a big assumption that the Twins are asking the other team to take on his salary. I sure hope Ryan is willing to eat most of that to increase his return. Also, the only team that was virtually a lock to win their division in early August was Atlanta and Freeman is mashing this year. So in reality there is nobody in that position. So you're saying that if Terry Ryan makes this trade ... what? Santana was an elite pitcher that almost every team wanted (whether they could afford him is a different matter). There were multiple offers on the table and he even could be held for another year and then let go after the season and gotten a couple draft picks. There were many alternatives. On the other hand Morneau has no other options. It's move him or lose him and when the Twins lose him there are no draft picks waiting. These are entirely separate trades that have absolutely nothing in common.

My comments to this point have all been about since Aug 1. That would be ~60 days of Morneau until the end of season. If a trade happens near the end of August that is ~30 days of Morneau instead. So the waivers would have no impact since the condition would exist at both points in time. Available talent has decreased however so has available suitors when, for instance, the Yankees acquired Mark Reynolds. So in the end it seems a wash. Lack of production would either be known at the beginning of August and a team would be looking then or it would come from a player that is isn't going to get replaced no matter how big a drop in production. A month late in the season isn't going to suddenly make a team question a player's hitting unless that player was already questionable. I agree injury could suddenly shift the equation. I also think it is incredibly unlikely and a poor strategy to wait for it to happen to one of the handful of teams that could possibly use Morneau. Changes in the standings is possible but still unlikely. If a team is on the fringe of playoff contention and starts winning they aren't going to acquire Morneau. If they start losing big they'll drop out of contention and still not acquire Morneau. The only way it would make sense to me is if a previously uncompetitive team goes on a big winning streak to put them back into contention and they suddenly are now looking for an upgrade. But again that team has to need a first baseman and Morneau has to be an upgrade, which is no given. So again, this is not particularly likely and not something I would like Ryan holding out for. So yes it is possible but like I said before, I can't think of a scenario that is likely to occur where Morneau's value will increase. I do think it is likely that pretty much everyday he spends in a Twins uniform he is losing value.

If it works out that they can way over spend this year acquiring many good/great prospects AND trade their full allotment of millions of dollars next season for other prospects......genius.

You're absolutely right that they are to a degree "guessing", but they at least have all the information there is available to make an informed decision. No matter how much you and I search we just don't have that information about the minor leagues and more importantly about Sano himself. You seem to be advocating tossing Sano into a pool of water without knowing if it is 3 ft. deep or 30 and just hoping that the kid can swim even though standing right next to you is the pool owner. I do believe that players can be irreversibly damaged by pushing too fast for the same reason I believe players can be damaged by stagnation. There are real consequences to promoting players too quickly. Let's look at Hicks. The Twins lost most of a season of team control, which in Sano's case could be tens of millions of dollars. Hicks never could learn to adapt so he basically wasted a year of potential development time. He has soured his profile in the public's mind. I'm sure there are more but those are off the top of my head. If guys just need reps and it doesn't matter where they get them then why push him that quickly, assuming the Twins think he isn't ready? 2014 is a lost season and I know that you agree with me there. Whether he gets a Sept call up, starts next season as the 3B or comes up in June it doesn't change the fact that he will get significant playing time in 2014 and be penciled in somewhere to start 2015.

You missed my point which is fine. I don't know what the second half of your first paragraph is meant to be, but it is comical. I asked why you believed Sano deserved a promotion. You replied, because he had "an alpha dog personality". The idea that a players personality should be used to determine when somebody is ready for a promotion is poorly thought out. If Sano has an "alpha dog personality", and I have no idea how one could know that from a few interviews and a few quotes, he has had that since before he was signed. Therefore, using your logic, he should have been promoted to the majors when he was acquired at 16 years old. So if Sano is not called up in September or start next season as the 3B starter does that mean the Twins are wrong? Or does that mean you are wrong?

The second place team right now in the wild card has a .563 winning percentage. The Twins would have to go undefeated to surpass that. Literally 36-0. The season is over and has been for quite a while for all intents and purposes and trying to make some stand about never giving up won't change that. It also won't help this 90 loss tragedy from happening again in the future.

More determined and of equal value are separate meanings. Even if a team is more determined to trade for a player now, though I can't see why that would be the case, there is no way 30 days of a player is more or equally valuable than 60 days.