Oxtung

Yup, the bastard doesn't even show up to family reunions, he's too busy posing out there by the road. Heaven forbid that Paul has to stand by himself for a weekend. Who would the tourists take pictures of then?!?

How will the Twins know before spring training what Mauer's condition will be? It seems to me they'll have to make this decision without really know how Mauer will handle baseball, either behind the plate or at 1B.

Puck is not Terry Ryan and therefore what he would or would not have done has no bearing on the Twins, as interesting as it may have been. Ryan is not being judged on how he compares to the posters on Twins Daily, he is being judged based on how he improves this team. Here is what we know about last off season. First, there were 15 above average free agent pitchers on the market. Second, many of those pitchers finished 2013 above average, though not all by any means (not to mention the pitchers that were below average and rebounded to have nice years like Jimenez). Third, Ryan signed two pitchers that were below average. Fourth, one of those pitchers was coming off of a significant injury. Fifth, both pitchers were below average in 2013. As far as I can tell there are only two possible conclusions to be drawn. First, Ryan was simply punting on 2013 or second, he tried and failed to improve this rotation. Either one is unacceptable, IMO. Terry Ryan is getting paid to make this team better. One of the tools he has at his disposal is free agency. The posters on this board can go round and round about whether Ryan could have signed pitcher X or Y but in the end it means nothing. It is up to Ryan to get these pitchers to sign whether they are initially amenable or not. If he is unable to perform his duties then he needs to be replaced.

Well we will have to disagree on just how much difference a year makes when both are age appropriate for the league and how much statistics matter at RK ball, but that really wasn't my point. I want to know what the scouts see differently (as I said scouting reports matter more in the lower minors than statistics) between the three pitchers. Really the big thing here is we don't have much to go on for Jorge or Gonsalves at this point (or Thorpe outside of Sickels.)

I'm going on record that I feel very uncomfortable with the direction this conversation has taken. It seems very derogatory towards all Oxen. I mean from my perspective Babe the Blue Ox, a distant cousin of mine by the way, was the smart one. I mean he is still standing after all right?

Just what are you trying to imply here RB?!?

Jorge and Gonzalves were both age appropriate as well. Thorpe is a little younger but he is not like Urias from the dodgers. Stats that low in the minors mean less than scouting reports. I'm sure does have better stuff but I would like to know specifically what makes him better at this stage of their careers.

If you're looking for an Ace at the AA/AAA level I think you're going to be disappointed. IMO, Perkins won't bring that back either. I'm not sure the Twins have anything that would. The best bet is to find a Trevor Bauer situation. A prospect that is on the ropes for his current organization and so his value is lower than it otherwise should be. Perhaps Bundy because of his surgery? The biggest problem here is there are probably only 4 or so players that fit your criteria. Taijuan Walker, Archie Bradley, maybe Noah Syndergaard and Dylan Bundy (he certainly was pre-surgery)? I'm not sure Taillon is still considered a potential ace.

I'll echo most others here and say his placement of Thorpe was pretty surprising. I'd love to know what separates Thorpe from Gonsalves and Jorge by so much. I think Vargas is probably ranked too high. A guy who is all bat had better be phenomenal, IMO. Lastly I'm surprised that Sulbaran isn't ranked. I know that scouts don't love his stuff, but he is a lefty that throws low 90's and dominated low A-ball. Just spit-balling here but I wonder if lefties should get a "positional adjustment" similar to SS or C.

Mauer only has 5 years left on his deal.

I'm sure that the Giants are hating their Matt Cain contract while celebrating the World Series. The Tigers made it to the World Series based largely on the play of Verlander, Fielder and Cabrera. The Cardinals had Matt Holiday, Albert Pujols and Carpenter (which would have been a $100MM contract if it wasn't signed in 2007). The 2010 Rangers had Beltre and Kinsler. The 2009 Champion Yankees had several large contracts but I'm sure everyone is aware of that. The Phillies had Chase Utley. In the last 5 years the only team that made the World Series and didn't have one of those huge contracts was the '08 Rays. I'd say that teams are learning. Elite players cost money and years. If you want to make the World Series you need elite players. So at the end of the day some of these contracts might be terrible and some teams are going to be dragged down because of it but if you don't play, you can't win.

I think you're underselling Danny Santana quite a bit. While he isn't a top 100 prospect, but he was rated the best defensive SS in his league this season so he should have the defensive chops. He also has hit decently for a SS. He has a .712 career minor league OPS and the average major league SS's was .680. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could turn into an average hitting good fielding SS. At the very least we can hope right? I advocated for that last offseason when it became obvious they weren't going to try and upgrade the roster, but that ship has sailed. I find it incredibly unlikely that any GM would be willing to take on his contract and return significant prospects (which would be required to justify it to the fans) for a catcher that is coming off of a serious brain injury. He could return to all-star catcher form, need to move to 1B or his career could be ended. There is no way to know right now. There is also the small problem of his full no-trade protection. While Perkins might have some value and could potentially return a nice prospect or two, Fien and Burton will have next to none. They didn't end the season particularly well, their overall stat lines are mediocre, and relievers are available to be signed every off season that don't require giving up prospects to acquire.

Here is an article from BA about Max Kepler. It has a little about Kepler's background and how he has grown up since being signed from Germany in 2009. It more about Kepler as a person than about what his baseball abilities are, though there is a little about that as well. Interesting read. Max Kepler Adds At-Bats In Fall League - BaseballAmerica.com

I agree that neither Dozier or Rosario is likely to bring back an Ace at AA or AAA. Knowing what your trade chips are worth is an important part of the process, but equally important, or perhaps even more important, is knowing the bare minimum return you expect to receive in the deal. This is what I was asking people to think about. What is the least amount you would except in a deal? Then you decide if that is a reasonable return. If not you keep your piece and move on. If it is reasonable then you start hunting for that piece and making offers.

It certainly isn't "all on Gardy" but some of the blame is on his shoulders. It is his job to put the Twins in the best position possible to win games. If folding in the 5th or 6th inning is common for the starting pitchers then he needs to be ready to deal with that either pulling them before it happens or he needs to have a quick hook once they do start to struggle. I think he was saying that there are very few "bright" points on the team this season and the bullpen is one of them, like Correia and the middle defense. Ryan isn't going to go out of his way to tear down the BP about the inherited runners scored because they are one of the few things seen as a success this season. As for Correia I didn't look at every team but he was better than only 5 of the 20 starters in the AL Central and none of those played for the Detroit Tigers.

Remember that they also have Danny Santana already on the 40 man. Combined with Dozier, the Florimonster and Escobar is quite a bit on the roster already. Does anyone know how many MI most teams carry on their 40 man?

Shane I completely agree with you that there are other ways to acquire good pitching, the draft, international signings and free agency. However, as much as we think those are good options, the man in charge of making those decisions disagrees. He will not spend what is required for the Twins to sign a front of the rotation pitcher because he doesn't want to commit the dollars or years. That leaves the draft, which he has clearly dived into trying to find that stud pitching, but it takes years to come to fruition. Stewart won't reach the Twins until sometime in 2016 at the earliest and probably shouldn't be counted on to be dominant until 2018/19, though I know we all hope he is Cingrani pt. 2. Given that, a trade is the only way to acquire quality pitching any quicker, would you be ok with that? What would it take for you to make a Dozier/Rosario for pitcher trade (ignore whether it is possible for the moment)? A true #3 pitcher major league ready? A potential Ace that just finished up low A ball?

I think the stat you're looking for is Win Probability Added (WPA). It can be found at fangraphs. There are a couple other similar stats but that seems to be the most respected.

Yikes did I get all turned around in this conversation. At some point I began thinking we were talking about the annual top 100 prospect lists. Ughhhh. The source you are looking for was the BA GCL top prospect rankings and chat. It is all covered on Thorpe's adopt-a-prospect page or the aforementioned BA GCL prospect thread. Making the back end of a Twins top 20 prospect lists is certainly possible this season for Felix Jorge, though my guess is Thorpe will be in the 20-25 range. I looked at BA GCL top 20 prospect list following the 2012 season and compared it to teams top 20 list. There were about 10-15 prospects that made their teams top 20 list. Most of these were players drafted that year in the top few rounds. A few were big money international signings. There were three players however that I could find very little data for from the time of their signing, suggesting that they were in fact not big money signings or highly regarded at the time. They were a Tiger's 2B, a Brave's SS and a Blue Jays pitcher. The 2B and SS had played in the VSL in 2011 and GCL in 2012. Both had put up good numbers in each league. The pitcher made 11 starts for the GCL and 3 for in the Appy league in 2012 before being ranked. He was very good but not dominant I would say (similar to Jorge's 2012 season). So take that how you would like too. It can happen but how you view Thorpe's chances depend a great deal on how you view the Twin's farm system, not just at the top, but in it's depth as well.

I just want to say that this has been a fantastic discussion. Good points have been made on both sides. I appreciate the research done by many of the posters and I really appreciate that this thread hasn't devolved into a pissing match. Thanks for a good read so far!

$500k isn't a particularly big contract in international FA. Certainly not big enough to get you noticed for a top 100 ranking. The Twins signed Lewin Diaz and Amurys Minier for $1.4 million each over the last few years. Of course the big haul was Miguel Sano who signed for over $3 million, though that much money is unlikely now because of the new spending caps. It's worth keeping in mind also that the Twins, outside of Sano, like to spread their money around more than other teams. This season alone there have been at least 12 players signed for more than $1 million. I'm not a big enough prospect hound to have an idea of how many international signings get ranked within their first year of playing, but Miguel Sano was ranked #60 after his GCL season (what Thorpe just finished). He was considered one of the best international prospects in many years and got paid like it. Thorpe might very well be ranked one day, as we all hope, but he doesn't have enough "clout" at this point and won't until after full season ball.

After a few more games things aren't much better. Buxton now 3/15, 0BB and 5K's. Kepler 2/10 0BB, 3K's. Rosario 2/10 with 0BB and 2K's. Both Buxton and Kepler have a double while Rosario has no XBH's but he does have 1SB. May and Meyer have not pitched again yet but Jones and Achter have. Achter: 1IP 1K 0BB gave up a double. Zach Jones gave up a leadoff triple. His next pitch was a passed ball allowing the runner to score after which he struck out the side. So good to see that he got mad and decided, "Screw this, my fielders have gotten enough work in today!" So overall not a particularly good start for the Twins prospects but there have been some silver linings. Glendale is 2-1 at this point.

Sleeper clearly means different things to different people. For people who only read BA or check out mlb.com then some good names to watch for are Stephen Gonsalves and Felix Jorge. They both had great years (though Gonsalves was drafted this season and made limited starts). IMO, they both have a chance to be top 10 Twins prospects going into 2015. Thorpe probably not until 2016 because he'll pitch next season at Elizabethton and it takes a year at A-Ball before guys start to get recognized, unless your a top draft pick or big money FA signing. Another player to keep an eye on is Miguel Sulbaran, he is what the Twins got back in the Butera trade and while he has been ranked he is new to the Twins. Guys who I don't think will be top 20 prospects next season but that intrigue me: Zach Granite, Zach Larson and Stuart Turner. Luke Bard will also be back from surgery next season so that will be fun to see. Am I remembering correctly that Chargois decided to do TJ surgery just a month or so ago?

I agree for the most part. The twins shouldn't be lookin to make a trade like this currently. I was trying to flesh out the idea to see what it would really look like, who the competitors would be and then what the cost might be. In the end this doesn't currently make sense for the twins this season. There is a caveat I have and haven't looked into yet. When will the next opportunity be to trade for a sure thing ace? They certainly don't appear very often it seems. We are seeing with this years class of FA pitchers that you can't just assume one will be there when you're "ready" whatever that word means to you.

I think there are some interesting possibilities for trades with the Reds, though most would be creative, big trades. Starting simple first though, if the Twins just want to move prospects Meyer, Rosario or Gibson would have to front the package. Assuming the Twins don't want to move pitching that leaves Rosario but Reds have Brandon Phillips signed through 2017. If the Reds, and more specifically their new manager, are looking to move Chapman back into the rotation then Perkins seems like a nice fit. As an organization we know they value closers and they are cash strapped so his cheap salary would be a plus. I'm not sure a single season of Bailey moves the needle for the Twins though. What if the Twins included Rosario, in addition to Perkins, and the Reds sent back Bailey and their top pitching prospect Robert Stephenson. He is extremely highly regarded, he will probably be ranked ahead of Rosario and potentially ahead of Meyer. The Twins end of that deal is probably a little light so some other player(s) would have to be added to even things out but the Reds could have their pick of our next tier as far as I'm concerned. I would even offer up Berrios if that is what it took. So what do people think of a Perkins + Rosario + one or two of Kepler/Santana/Polanco/Harrison/Berrios for Homer Bailey and Robert Stephenson? As other have said if Bailey is unwilling to sign long term we could still look to move him at the deadline or extend him a qualifying offer but the Twins would also be able to come out of this with another long term building block and this one has front of the rotation potential. I know I would feel much better with 3 potential #1 starters instead of the 2 we currently have. Of course this is all predicated upon the Reds moving Chapman to the rotation which is anything but a given. The other option is to try and get a third team involved if the Reds aren't interested in Rosario (presumably because of Brandon Phillips). Bailey to the Twins, Rosario + others to [insert team here], [insert team here] players/prospects back to the Reds.