Oxtung

Your bias is showing here. I mean Lemahieu and Villar all have multiple replacement level seasons recently for god's sake....

What do you think his likely ceiling is?

And just turned 22. What will he look like at 26 when he's put on another 20 pounds? I think it's more likely to look like willingham or even Sano. I have no desire to see that. Corner OF bats are the easiest thing to find in FA.

1) Urias (actually I just don't think the Twins have anything that could fetch him. My guess is he's available for the right piece) 2) De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart, Buehler, Sheffield, Wood, Stripling 3) Bellinger, Verdugo, Toles, K Ruiz, Diaz, Lux, ... , Calhoun 4) Toles, Barnes 5) Brito, K Ruiz, White 6) Calhoun 7) Alvarez, Verdugo, Stewart, Sheffield 8) De Leon, Bellinger, Buehler, K Ruiz 9) Certainly not a failure. He provides things the Twins needs other than getting to the playoffs 10) 6-8 WAR total 11) 29.5

Absolutely prospects are risky but is there any evidence that traded prospects are inherently more risky? There is some logic behind what you posted earlier. In addition I wonder if the change in emphasis between farm systems can mess with development. So while you might be on to something I just wonder if there is any actual research to back it up.

That's an interesting way of looking at the peripherals surrounding the trade. I have never heard that traded prospects don't pan out at a similar rate(I'm assuming u mean to other comparatively ranked prospects). Do you have a link for further reading?

I think the poster you quoted, and I certainly subscribe to this, is that I'd rather have the A-Ball pitcher who might become an ace rather than the AAA guy who is destined to be a back of the rotation/swing man. Another way of thinking about this is I'd rather take a chance on Alex Meyer than settle for Pedro Hernandez.

My point wasn't that Duensing and Stewart are the same pitcher-profile but rather they are a limited upside player that the home team tries to throw into a trade because they have already learned the players limitations and want to recoup as much value as possible before the rest of the league "finds out". No fan base, and that includes writers, wants to toss in potentially impact players so they toss in middle of the road upside players hoping the opposing team won't notice. This is just as true for Twins fans. My point is that isn't enough, IMO. I'd rather the Twins keep Dozier unless there are multiple high upside players coming back.

Im saying the Twins need more back with De Leon than Stewart, a back of the rotation option, and Calhoun who has serious position questions. Why do you think the Dodger reporters/fans keep trying to add in those particular names (along with Trayce Thompson)? IMO the same reason the Twins fans continuously tried to attach Duensing to "sweeten" the pot.

I have no interest in a package of DeLeon Stewart and Calhoun. A back of the rotation pitcher and a fielder that has questions about sticking in a corner OF spot don't move the needle regardless of how close to the majors they are. If that is the best offer the Twins will get, keep Dozier. There will be 3 more opportunities to trade him and he still has value to the Twins. I have no thoughts on Verdugo but we will probably have a hole in th OF next year because chances are one of Rosario, buxton, Kepler aren't going to progress enough to hold down a starters job.

Kinsler has 2, Solarte 3, Forsythe 2. Braun has 5 but he will be 37 and is already a butcher in the OF; I shudder to think what he will be at that stage of his career. The Dodgers could pick someone up in FA to a longer contract but there isn't much available.

You seem to be undervaluing Dozier. He has the 15th most WAR in baseball over the last 3 seasons ahead of names like Freeman, Cespedes, Cano, Bautista, etc...; even if you think his 2016 HR binge is a fluke he is still a top 30 player. One of the names ahead of Dozier is Kinsler. If the Dodgers can convince Detroit to trade him he would definitely be an upgrade over Dozier. However, he also is demanding an extension into his age 39 and potentially 40 seasons to waive his no trade clause; that makes me nervous personally. Let's not pretend that Forsythe (if you can convince the Rays to trade him) or Solarte (how would he handle 2B fulltime?) are in the same discussion as Dozier. Braun is a better hitter than Dozier but he is an absolute butcher in the field. Dozier's name is getting bandied about by the Press for a reason. He is the best fit for the Dodgers, a great player that fills their 2B need, has a team friendly contract, in his prime and is a fantastic leader by all accounts. There are other players that check some of those boxes but none that check them all.

In a similar vein, during the 2014-2015 seasons (for the sake of argument assuming his 2016 was a complete fluke) he posted the 29th highest WAR in baseball and the 3rd highest amongst 2B behind only Kinsler, Altuve and tied with Dee Gordon. I think I've been underrating Dozier. If he even splits the difference between his previous seasons and '16 .... HawkeyeDodger, what's the latest on the Kinsler trade front? Are the Dodgers still interested or have they moved on since he wants an extension?

Profar "only" had 1 year as the top prospect because he made his major league debut at 19 yo. At the same age Buxton was still in A ball. The only difference in their results is that Buxton was allowed to play his natural position. I will grant you the 2 extra years of control but even that is somewhat diminished because he is so young (because he debuted at 19yo) that an extension with Profar seems plausible. If you want to claim that Buxton is worth slightly more than Profar I won't make a fuss but they are pretty damn close in value I believe. As always YMMV. The question however is would you trade Buxton (since you think he's better then you don't have to throw in an A-ball flier) for Santana?

The Twins aren't in "win now" mode; other teams are.

Profar was every bit of the prospect that Buxton was and defensively his only questions are related to Andrus and Odor. Buxton has his own injury concerns with a play style and DL lists to show for it. I'll grant you Buxton has 2 extra years of control and that is important but how much does that really change a potential trade package? Most players are just entering the league at his age. At worst a team would have 3 years to work out an extension with Profar. Both players were top of the line prospects that now have big questions surrounding their bat and injury concerns.

Outside of their respective organizations I bet Profar and Buxton are valued similarly. What would you require in return for Buxton?

They have to replace all those players as well though and FA salaries are only increasing (and rapidly). Some of those players will probably be replaced internally (for instance Gonzalez by Bellinger perhaps) but certainly some of those will come from outside the organization as well. Also Kershaw can opt out after 2018. There are also some BIG names potentially hitting the FA market in the next few years I imagine the Dodgers will want to be in on. Long and short, while the Dodgers could sign Dozier to an extension I'm not sure they'll want to spend the money on him and the prospects could be used to replace more of those veterans freeing up more cash to entice Machado, Harper, etc...

The Twins are in both a good and bad position currently. The good, Dozier is a valuable commodity and is signed to a team friendly multi-year deal. There is no external pressure to move him. In fact there is probably internal pressure to not move him. He is the face of the franchise, the only real marketable player currently and in addition is the clubhouse leader. All reports say he is one hell of a guy and teammate. The bad, the Twins have several holes to fill on their roster (obviously). The biggest being starting pitching. The Twins have a glut of mid/back of the rotation options available both currently, in the short term, mid term and long term. What the Twins don't have, at the major league level or in the minors, is potential front of the rotation options. A return of DeLeon and Stewart makes little sense from the Twins perspective. Stewart, according to the publicly available sources, is a back of the rotation arm that is currently ready for MLB. The problem is the Twins already have a backlog they need to weed through of 4th/5th starters with 3 more that were at AA last year on the way. DeLeon, while an above average pitcher which the Twins definately need, doesn't profile as a top of the rotation pitcher either. In order for a trade to make sense from the Twins perspective there either needs to be a legitimate "Ace" potential, which seems to be Alvarez in the Dodgers system, or multiple premium prospects. There are a few things that could change this analysis. First, the Twins new CBO came from the Indians org where he was integrally involved in taking mid-rotation pitchers and improving them to #1/2 starters. If there was a prospect he thought could be improved in a similar manner that clearly changes things. Second, if Ervin Santana were to be traded that could potentially open up a spot in the Twin's rotation for a guy like Stewart that is ready to step in immediately.

Well if they're looking at 3rd or 4th pieces I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins go for Ronny Brito. He was one of their big money signings a last year out of the Dominican. SS who is good defensively. Hasn't made it to the U.S. yet. He is a looooooong way away yet but if you're taking a flier, and anything that is the 4th player in a trade is a flier, might as well take a chance on a guy at a premium position with defensive skills.

The really scary thing is they could still trade Quintana, Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Robertson, etc... Think about what kind of haul they could bring back if they wanted to go full on tear down.

I'd be disappointed with that return and want nothing to do with Calhoun. A guy who is questionable to stick in a corner OF spot needs more than average bat with above average power. I look at his skill set and think Deleon Young. Anyone interested in that?

Even though there are some HUGE questions surrounding the offensive output (and lets be honest, that's where all his on the field value lies) he will provide? What do you think his "real" offensive output is? Use whatever metric you choose.

You think his consistency is less important to teams than the extra year of cheap control and age?

Absolutely right. So how does that affect things Mike? Is that extra year of control where the bulk of his value lies? Truely I don't know the answer to this and am looking to build some kind of concensus here. If we can determine what his production would need to be to increase his value in the future we can propose the odds of that actually happening and ultimately make a better determination about whether he should be traded now or not.