jokin
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Everything posted by jokin
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By "encourage", you probably meant "constrained by the truth" comments like this one, for example:
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At least a "pretty clear indication..."
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No innuendo or myth-building here: Terry Ryan W-L as GM: 1361-1485 (.478 winning percentage) Terry Ryan post-season record: 6-21 (.222 winning percentage) Terry Ryan playoff series wins in 18 seasons: 1 Terry Ryan World Series wins in 18 seasons: 0 Theo Epstein W-L as GM: 1136-970 (.539 winning percentage) Theo Epstein post-season record: 36-21 (.632 winning percentage)# Theo Epstein playoff series wins in 13 seasons: 9* Theo Epstein World Series wins in 13 seasons: 2 # Through tonight with Cubs win * Counting Cubs Wild Card win
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Or, that as I put up for debate and suggested last offseason*, the NL Central is by far the best division in the NL, and the AL could be both stronger and more competitively balanced across all 3 divisions (AL East was 167-163/AL West was 159-171 [Oakland skewing that total-controlling for the A's makes most of the AL fairly close to one another). More supporting data: AL East vs. NL- 62-38 AL West vs NL- 64-46 AL Cent vs NL 51-49 *(Of course, I was totally wrong in using the NL Central strength as the reason why the Twins would likely only win 72 games, they actually acquitted themselves pretty well, going 2-2 against both the Cards and Pirates).
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Yep. Still scratching my head on what went down the last week of July, 2014. Ryan had a young, still-rebuilding team with glaring holes, and an expendable piece at catcher on a hot run at the plate, that might have made a nice insurance policy on a contender flush with expendable assets- maybe could have gotten a B-/C+ prospect or perhaps as part of a package, gotten one or two controllable pitchers in trade. Was it Gardy who still carried enough weight who insisted that Suzuki HAD to be re-signed? Or, does Ryan after all these years still not understand the career/outlier years of established vets and the laws of regression when considering contract extensions?
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Some on this board dispute that claim (Not Me, you're spot on). Overall- +1 post
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Not sure how anyone could say Theo simply "got lucky on Arrieta"... actually, it's kind-of ridiculous to say that. It seems obvious he: recognized Arrieta's raw, but unfulfilled talent, analyzed what wasn't working- via scouting and video, got feedback and assurances from his own coaches that it was fixable, and then boldy pulled the trigger- utilizing his "Rent-A-Free-Agent-For-Exactly-This-Type-Of-Opportunity-In-Order-To-Potentially-Make-The--Club-Stronger-Long-Term", Scott Feldman. It wasn't like this was just some obscure trade at the time. Many of us on this forum praised it (including myself, of course), as conceptually, from start to finish, exactly the kind of shrewd deal you make as a mid-market franchise (Hello Terry Ryan!?), especially as opposed to the Yankees or Dodgers trying to just outbid everyone else for the best talent.
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Just. No.
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Vavra.
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Fangraphs has Escobar's .754 OPS listed at 8th overall. Escobar's also listed as 10th overall in wRC+ at 103
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Why isn't Max Scherzer being considered for the NL CY Young?
jokin replied to Hrbowski's topic in Other Baseball
Yep. IIRC, both you and I were having a debate on TD with other naysaying posters about what a great trade this was for the Cubs back in 2013, conceptually. And the Cubs got not just Arrieta, but also RP Pedro Strop, two arms who both bounced back spectacularly with the Cubs after down years with the Orioles. And the Cubs got both of these stalwarts by flipping their rental FA pitcher, Scott Feldman. The Twins, instead of jumping on Feldman early in the FA bidding in November of 2012, waited until the market was established by guys like Feldman, and instead, settled for Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey.... Gulp... Theo outmaneuvered Terry- and the rest of the League on this one- big time -
Molitor in his 40 and 41 age seasons collectively: .325/.375/.453/.828
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You beat me to it Thry, sorry, I was typing while you were posting. And you're right, the fan base has a different sort of expectations on both W-L and how erudite and analytical their manager should be. The former Federal Reserve Chief, Ben Bernanke is an avid fan and sabremetrician and has complete pre-game access to the field, for heavens sake. Gardy hated second guessers in Minnesota, everyone is a second guesser in DC, but only with a finance, economics, engineering or law degree. They tear up the unwashed rube-types for breakfast- Hey Gardy, how would you like to be dogged daily by a real, live, actual Quant, not just a few baseball nerds who took a stats course and have a website and Twitter on their resume?: http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/c4a1bbed040367ef39abd0f944c8d0f883ddc7b2/c=0-0-3767-2832&r=x408&c=540x405/local/-/media/2015/10/02/USATODAY/USATODAY/635793790839872406-XXX-7185.JPG
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Are we thinking that Gardy would be allowed to bring his stable of coaches? I have a feeling that Andy would get laughed off the field trying to convert Papelbon and the Aces into P2C throwers. And "swing like a girl" and hit the opposite way definitely won't exactly win Gardy's hitting coach a vote of confidence with Harper.
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Thanks you David. Speaking as a former 1B myself, I found myself yelling at the screen at Mauer, on that play, not Boyer, he has to get their faster, claim at least half of the front of that base with his foot, and getting that glove lined up with Boyer's likely throw-path. (BTW, you won't mind if I find a way to coin that phrase, "Partly on Portly", I did a full-on post-midnight computer screen-drenched spit-take... spot on!) So anyway, despite what some might say, it might have been Partly on Portly, but it was Mainly on Mauer... and not to pick on him alone, there were 6 errors called in the last 2 days, and at least 4 more that could/should have been errors, as well. Pretty clear that this team just plain used up all of the luck and pixie dust left in their duffel bags..
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Minor League Ball's Nick Melotte on Kepler
jokin replied to nytwinsfan's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I agree on Hicks, not sure how the organization views him for sure. I think they will likely bring back Hunter as both insurance and head babysitter. Hicks had a very misleading season, but I'd put money on the idea that they currently plan for him to take over in RF when Buxton comes in full-time and Torii gets gradually eased out over the course of next season. Which leaves Max without a position to play in the OF. Assuming Plouffe is gone, Arcia (and Vargas to an extent) complicate things, as well, for Kepler to get DH reps, should either make a strong claim for the spot. Which leaves 1st and what to do with Mauer and Kepler both needing a spot and down to one musical chair left. -
Yep, they're rapidly reaching that very point in the development cycle. The roster crunch from below starts to make the situation tougher, with both the 6-year guys they want to retain and Berrios, Rogers and maybe some from the list of Burdi, Chargois, Dean, Cole Johnson, Peterson or another random emerging LHP, will be looking to claim a 40-man spot no later than mid-2016. It looks like they're going to lose somebody pretty good in Rule 5. I'm anticipating that besides looking to move Plouffe and Nolasco if they can, this will be the year that younger guys at the end of the roster, and seemingly looking like they're now on the outside looking in, like Santana and Vargas and even Arcia, will be actively touted as throw-in bait or perhaps offered in stand-alone deals for younger prospects. Polanco and Stewart look like guys that will intrigue a lot of teams, but end up in a huge guess-the-true-ceiling poker game with the Twins on how much both sides of the potential trade actually value their upside.
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OK, my bad. And yeah, it's unrealistic to expect his exact production this year into the future. But on the bright side, there are rare catchers that age very gracefully that prove the exception. I was in Chicago to witness Carlton Fisk's career there. Not saying that AJ is equivalent to the HoFer in production at all, but he's every bit as tough, ornery and obnoxious as Fisk was- the White Sox acquired AJ in part, because they saw in him some of what Fisk had given them previously. Here's AJ's numbers this year at age 38, coming off a down year at age 37- (OPS .625): .300/.339/.430/.769 Here's a series of Fisk's numbers starting at age 39, coming off of a down year at age 38- (OPS .600): Age 39- .256/.321/.460/.782 Age 40- .297/.377/.542/.919 Age 41- .293/.356/.475/.830 Age 42- .285/.378/.451/.829 Age 43- .241/.299/.413/.712 I'm definitely not saying that AJ is going to put up anything like these numbers- and BTW, Fisk accomplished most of these numbers catching while part-time DHing. Just got to say though, that there's precedent that some guys age really well, especially if they're tough SOBs---- and also especially if they're both very talented hitters at the position that is toughest to hit from- and students of opposing pitchers' tendencies. One more thing to consider: AJ's career slash- .282/.321/.424/.745 Fisk's career slash- .269/.341/.451/.797 OK, one last thing to consider: If AJ turns into a pumpkin next year, instead of a graceful finish to an outstanding MLB career, the Twins won't be any worse off than they are with their current catching situation.
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I'd counter by saying that Ryan puts his money where his mouth is if he really wants somebody (Torii, Pelfrey, Santana). If he really wanted AJ in the recent past when he's had opportunities, then he'd already be here. Hopefully, this time, he really wants this to happen, or has a better target in mind. But I keep coming back to the Suzuki re-up. He put his money where his mouth was yet again, and grossly overpaid for a guy he likely could have traded for a half-decent prospect in July 2014- and then re-signed on the FA market in December- for the same deal he gave Zuke on July 31, or probably even less- Suzuki was already regressing to his mean career performance levels that July- again, Ryan re-signing one of his own guys right at the wrong time
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Not really. The Twins aren't likely to sign him for either much money, or for more than a year, or a year with an option.
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Minor League Ball's Nick Melotte on Kepler
jokin replied to nytwinsfan's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
We talked about that HR on this forum a couple weeks ago, having visited there in May, I can attest that hitting that ball over the 20' wall and the picnic terrace above it is definitely a mammoth shot. If Kepler does add to the glimpses we've seen of that power component on a more permanent basis, you could have a wonderful combination of a little of Justin Morneau power and a little of Highpockets Kelly ## defense at 1B starting in 2017 to 2027. ## He just looks long and lean in a graceful sort of way that I can imagine in my mind how HOFer Kelly may have played- same height, similar weight nd build- Frankie Frisch called Highpockets the greatest defensive First baseman he'd ever seen. While Kepler looked good at 1st when I saw him, probably too soon to give him a gold glove, but I think he's capable of winning at least one before his career is over.- Dougie's influence on him was obvious from the times I have seen him play. -
I'm on board for all 3 starting in Rochester. It's not only prudent management of those players financially and developmentally, it lets you set up a proper level of roster depth for a 162-game season, and gives an opportunity for more experienced veterans and other younger players a fighting chance to make their case coming out of ST, to establish value, either as an asset, to the Twins roster or in trade. That being said, I fully expect both Berrios and Buxton to have a monster April and May and kick the doors in to Target Field sooner rather than later. Kepler might make his case a little more slowly, but I can readily envision a scenario where he earns a call-up by late June or July and the Twins become eventually become forced to place him in the lineup, much as they did with Sano, playing a little in the field and a bunch of time at the DH.
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Let's start by TR being very open to a commitment to setting the payroll at or above the MLB median level- the Twins payroll rank is currently 23rd . Which means adding at least another $30M to the payroll, and through Free Agency addressing the holes we're all well aware of and have identified, ad infinitum.
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Right, I understand that part of it, which makes me think that Ryan might have residual thoughts that acquiring AJ was potentially more boat-rocking trouble. and costly in terms of prospects moved, than it was worth to go get him for the second half playoff run. (Which also might mean that TR was/is satisfied with the catcher situation as is, which raises a whole different set of concerns for me, if true). You're absolutely right, it should be a no-brainer on the part of both parties here to get this done, ASAP.
