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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Evidence to support this? Both Antony and to some extent, Ryan, are on record in saying that Buxton will start out in Rochester. I'd say that the best bet is that Rosario will be in CF on opening day. You are completely missing the point, which is, the Twins needed to get more from this deal... and now they open 2016 with a greatly downgraded OF defense- to obtain a minor upgrade at catcher.
  2. jokin
    Suzuki won't vest, the Murphy deal ensures that to be the case. But I'd look for the Twins to look to re-sign Suzuki at a lower price, especially if Garver, Turner and Pinto don't look to offer a great assurance of being an upgrade going into 2017.
  3. jokin
    The difference being, that he has a recent track record of great success in just such transactions.
  4. jokin
    Again, please provide evidence that this is, in fact, the case, Do you really have a single shred of evidence that the Twins will just hand over the starting role, and all of the responsibility that entails, to a 24-year old catcher who has never been a major league starter before, and who comes in relatively unheralded? And if he was all that important to the Yankees, why get rid of him with 5 years of player control left?
  5. jokin
    From Forbes and ESPN, Brian Cashman believes vastly differently, he seems to have watched more closely and appreciated what transpired in 2015 with Hicks more than the Twins did: And Cashman has the recent track record to suggest his value judgments of up and coming (but struggling) players from other otganizations has been more than sound.
  6. jokin
    Suzuki played 131 games with 479 PAs. His option vests in 2016 with 485 PAs. I'm guessing that he will come in at around 115-125 games- it's the Twins Way.
  7. jokin
    I need evidence to back up that claim. Until then, I will assume that Suzuki will play the lion's share of the innings- the Twins obviously seem enamored with his toughness and leadership abilities, as it can't be for the more tangible factors.
  8. jokin
    You underrate Brian Cashman way too much.
  9. jokin
    Not the first time through their own assessments that they got the bad end of a trade for a CF.
  10. jokin
    Not sure how you came to this conclusion... who was starting in CF in your scenario?
  11. jokin
    AS I posted on the Hicks thread... Cameron notes that Hicks projects similarly on Steamer to Gardner and Ellsbury if he gets the full-time gig,(obviously could go higher if in CF full-time). Meanwhile, Suzuki is virtually guaranteed to play some 130 games and something just below the 485 PA threshold for his option to vest. It's virtually impossible for Murphy to achieve much more than 0.5 WAR, even if he puts up his BABIP-inflated numbers of the past two years. In the meantime, the Twins OF defense has now hereby been downgraded- with the catcher position only slightly upgraded. The Twins needed to shop around and insist on adding one or two controllable RP arms along with a catcher for this trade to make sense for a team in win-now mode- as we all assume that the Twins should be.
  12. jokin
    Suzuki played 131 games and had 479 PAs in 2015. Suzuki's option vests if he manages 485 PAs in 2016. Do we really think that Suzuki will not finish somewhere just under the numbers he hit in 2015? Murphy will be hard-pressed to be able to produce more than 0.5 WAR, even in the best-case scenario. Meanwhile, Hicks currently projects to put up 2+ WAR for the Yankees if he gets a full-time gig, higher than that if he gets the CF job, the same as Ellsbury and Gardner. For the Twins to have made this a great trade, they needed a decent bullpen arm as part of the trade, they didn't get anything close to that in return. I just looked up the Cameron article on the trade... the following text isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of the profile that Murphy offers as potential salvation at the catcher position for the Twins:" "Overall, Murphy looks like he likely fits best as a part-time catching option, a guy with enough skills to not be a black hole behind the plate, but probably not a guy deserving of a full-time job. The Twins needed help behind the plate, and this beats paying a lot of money to Matt Wieters or something, but I don’t know that Murphy is going to be more than a decent platoon guy in Minnesota."
  13. jokin
    I hope you're right. However, his career MiLB BABIP is .295. Until convinced otherwise, I gotta think he will regress to his historical mean. His two-year MLB BABIP number is comparable to Goldschmidt, Harper and Cabrera... I kind-of doubt that even if he has indeed changed his batting style, that he can maintain numbers at this elite level of play.
  14. jokin
    Lots of other experts aren't so sure that he's much more than that. The BABIP thing might have been more addressed by KLaw... How soon we forget rookies and BABIP. Danny Santana from .405 BABIP to .290 BABIP in 2015. Murphy BABIPed at .365 in 2014-15, and his MiLB BABIP is historically much lower than Santana's was. The 2015 AL average BABIP is .296. Anyone care to wager or guess which side of .296 BABIP Murphy ends up on in 2016? I'll take the under...
  15. jokin
    Taking bets on who gets the most PAs in 2016....
  16. jokin
    I wish Ryan would actually take chances on upside. Murphy pretty much is what he is. And how much did Yankee Stadium inflate his hitting? Quite a bit. Yankee Stadium: wRC+ 105 OPS .749 Away Games: wRC+ 71 OPS .623 This looks like more Metrodome budget-ball soon-to-be-expensive player spin-off. The road map suggests that Murphy was primarily acquired to be certain that he merits and gets just enough PAs to guarantee that Suzuki's option doesn't vest, and not much more. Let's break this down more simply. The Twins traded an uncertain, but still, a former 1st rounder and starting, decent-defending, CF- who finally showed glimpses of realizing his full potential.... for, so far anyway, only a back-up catcher with little upside behind the plate? In what world is that a good trade? This created more uncertainty in the OF, while failing to significantly upgrade the glaring deficit at the catcher position. How did the Twins not get a decent bullpen arm thrown into this trade, at minimum? Just a bad move. (And I'm writing this as one of HIcks' biggest critics. I hope I'm completely wrong on Murphy and he excels and somehow takes the job from Zuke, but if the Yanks see their way to giving Hicks 500 PAs, he has the potential to be a 20-20 producer in that park.)
  17. jokin
    I can.
  18. jokin
    Didn't break well in 2015, just like it didn't break well in 2014. I'm not at all surprised about him missing out on San Diego. Gardy will be the perennial back-up pick if the club fails to land their top alternative options- and maybe a leading candidate as an interim manager in certain situations. Kind-of the opposite result from all of those here who were pretty adamant in declaring that Gardy would have his pick of jobs if the Twins were foolish enough to fire him.
  19. jokin
    At least a dozen more.
  20. jokin
    Absolutely. Major upgrade at the key position on the field, with Desmond highly incentivized to make good. Veteran leadership. "Dozier to Dozier" sounds like a good infield combo to start a DP. The Twins regain the lost draft pick after making a QO to Desmond. Money available to spend with retirement of Torii. Do it.
  21. jokin
    For many Twins fans, it's Always going to be: "In Terry We Trust."
  22. jokin
    You really think they will hold him back from debuting immediately in Rochester? And then seeing how that goes, first?
  23. jokin
    You really don't follow a track record of transactions too closely, do you? AA will be snapped up in no time... I'm sure he left Toronto knowing that there were multiple standing offers elsewhere, maybe not GM spots, but safe landing spots until the next juicy offer comes along. There's always a certain group of franchises that put a premium on going for it when warranted and prefer the benefits derived from "splashy and flashy" vs. "plodding, dodding and predictably methodical".
  24. jokin
    Apparently not...
  25. jokin
    #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball, and only 3# on the Twins....? Nope
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