jokin

These are substantial changes. I wonder how the Twins offseason plan shapes up given that Gardy and Andy are one year deals. If Ryan/Pohlad aren't waiting to see who becomes available in the managerial/pitching coach MLB depth pools (Washington/Scoscia,etc) before making a further commitment to Gardenhire/Anderson, they are being derelict in their duties and exposing more of the penny-wise/pound foolish thinking that has gotten them in the current mess they find themselves mired in.

I could see this being a "you guys have one more year or so to turn this around" and by turn it around, they don't nessicarly need to win 90 games, but they need to show a vast improvement over the last two years. They are viewing Anderson and Gardy's accomplishments as a whole, not just two seasons. Make no mistake about it, this wasn't on Gardy and Anderson this year anyways, that starting rotation was an embarrassment there isn't a coach alive that could take a bunch of AAA burnouts and turn them into a legit rotation. Most people said they needed some new blood in, well, they just brought in three new coaches to the staff who will be working with these players every day, that is quite a bit of new blood IMO. Also as mentioned above, they did fire the GM last year, I understand fans being frustrated, but if you just go and fire everyone every-time a bad season happens you end up in a mess. How about 2 bad seasons? How many managers/pitching coaches keep their jobs after being the worst team in the league for two straight years? On the bright side, with the Astros joining the AL next year, Ryan/Gardy/Anderson can falsely claim "Improvement" in 2013- by illicitly inflating their win total to 70+ and NOT being the worst team in the league- -- so there is that....

Right, which I'm not willing to write him off as just a fluke. His minor league numbers suggest a 700ish OPS is attainable but if it's the way he did it this year that isn't what we want. (4 pretty bad months and 1 ridiculously good month isn't what you want in an everyday starter) The fact that he can play a position defensively is the real boon to this year. It at least allows us to try him out. On the other hand, players who neither walk nor hit for average tend to be very streaky hitters. The downside is that for a good portion of the year, they are average or slightly below average players. The upside is that they can carry the team for a month or more when they get hot. I'm not a fan of players in the mold of Plouffe but given his hot streak this season and the organization's lack of competing players at third base, I think he has a spot on the roster for the foreseeable future. I think what's being overlooked is Plouffe's "after-month" approach at the plate after that ridiculous streak in June The clubs were catching on that throwing "up and in" to him was playing right into Plouffe's strength. In late June and into July, Plouffe got a constant diet of low and away pitches. Plouffe reacted correctly by going with the pitch-away to the right field gap, yielding him a 314/352/480 slash in late June/July- after the bulk of the unconscious run he maintained through most of June, his homers went way down but he did show decent discipline as a hitter during that stetch. Given the Twins other more-pressing needs that must be addressed this off-season, the best solution is one I've advocated all along, platooning Plouffe and Mauer at 3B, cutting back on Plouffe's appearances against tougher righties, especially when he's in one of his bad streaks (this would also save Plouffe to give Gardy a RHPH option in many games when his usual PH-candidates have usually only been Butera and Casilla).

---The Mets deserve some credit for picking him up. But they did not insert him as one of their starters coming out of the gate in 2010. They signed him to a minor league contract in January, and he started the year in AAA. I'm happy to see RA have the year he's having. He's obviously had some real personal demons to deal with along the way. I'm not sure how much you can fault the Twins any more than you can fault the 28 other major league teams that passed on him. It's not like there was a rush to sign this guy when he went on the market. And I doubt the Mets even thought he'd do as well as he has. He was a journeyman in his mid-30's when the Twins decided not to bring him back. I don't recall a groundswell of support for doing otherwise, and certainly not anyone claiming that if we just waited a few more years, we'd have a Cy Young contender on our hands. Dickey started the year in AAA because of money previously committed to John Maine ($3.3M), but especially to Oliver Perez ($12M). Dickey started out of the gates in AAA with a series of dominating performances, by far producing the best MiL numbers in his career. As Perez and Maine self-destructed, Dickey first started for the Mets on May 19 and ended up with the third-most innings on the staff (174), the best ERA (2.84- better than Johan) and only 1/100 higher WHIP than Johan (1.18). As I stated in my previous post: "I'm not sure what the Twins were thinking back in 09 when they cut Dickey. Likely what most everybody else in baseball didn't see, as well. Give the Mets credit for understanding the evolution of a knuckleballer learning on the job." The Mets saw something that the other clubs didn't. For one thing, as there is little strain on a pitching arm from tossing knucklers, age is irrelevant to consideration of potential value. Mastering the knucker requires years of practice and great patience from the club that has his rights. It's fairly obvious that through a combination of Dickey's pitching maturation and possibly some credit to the Mets coaching staff- along with their willingness to show confidence in him, they found themselves a great bargain.

That fails to account for what the Mets were able to get out of Dickey, immediately, inserting him as one of their starters coming out of the gate in 2010. The Mets obviously saw a lot more in working with, and developing Dickey, and understanding the evolution of knuckleball mastery than in trying to acquire just more mediocrity in guys like Blackburn and Duensing.

I'm not sure what the Twins were thinking back in 09 when they cut Dickey. Likely what most everybody else in baseball didn't see, as well. Give the Mets credit for understanding the evolution of a knuckleballer learning on the job. The guy has averaged 200+ innings, 30 starts/yr, 22.33 quality starts/yr, 2.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.8K/9 in his 3 years as a Met starter. The Mets obviously saw a huge opportunity with a cheap asset and made the most of it. Regarding Gardy/Anderson, they certainly had input and the ability to tell Bill Smith "thumbs up/thumbs down" on sticking with him. Whoever originally signed Dickey on the Twins has to be credited for signing him by seeing the potential, hopefully whomever that was still is a voice to be listened to in the Twins FO.

Nice article about Dickey, on overcoming long odds and many doubters (MN Twins org among them) with class and gritty perseverance: http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/8433305/new-york-mets-ra-dickey-overcomes-obstacles-20th-win I don't believe a knuckleballer has ever won the Cy Young award. Dickey's overall numbers on a bad team certainly merit strong consideration. Will he overcome the built-in bias against knuckleballers and win the award?

Twins record: AL Central: 34-35 NL 9-9 AL East: 10-18 AL West: 11-27 The Twins swept the fraud that is the Detroit Tigers today. Getting a doubleheader sweep in the AAAA/JV division of baseball merits a hearty golf clap, although admittedly, Diamond and Walters had good outings. The Tigers showed in vivid colors who they really are today- a destined-for failure, horrendously atrocious, infield defense that was further aided today in that effort by their OF. Furthermore, how do you construct a big-bucks- payroll-team to compete for a title with only 2 mediocre LHRP in the pen? And just one, very hittable, rookie Lefty starter?

Isn't that how most/many ballparks were laid out early in the game's history? Kind of a retro look? Since most of the posters here have no collective memory of Kirby Puckett, let alone Rod Carew, here are pictures of Tiger Stadium, believe or not, there was a ballpark before Comerica. http://www.tigerstadiumdetroit.com/navin.html

Hey, besides giving the greatest entirely improvisational performance by a non-actor in the history of cinema in Full Metal Jacket, the guy is also a certified Vietnam-era war hero. Here's Ermey's list of military honors: [TABLE] http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/Navy_Meritorious_Unit_Commendation_ribbon.svg/106px-Navy_Meritorious_Unit_Commendation_ribbon.svg.png http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Award-star-gold-3d.svg/22px-Award-star-gold-3d.svg.png http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Award-star-gold-3d.svg/22px-Award-star-gold-3d.svg.png http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3e/Marine_Corps_Good_Conduct_ribbon.svg/106px-Marine_Corps_Good_Conduct_ribbon.svg.png [/TD] http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Award-star-gold-3d.svg/22px-Award-star-gold-3d.svg.png [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: wikitable] [TD=colspan: 2]Meritorious Unit Commendation [TD=colspan: 2]Good Conduct Medal[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]National Defense Service Medal[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]Armed Forces Expeditionary Medal[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]Vietnam Service Medal[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]Drill Instructor Ribbon[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]Vietnam Gallantry Cross[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]Vietnam Presidential Unit Citation[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]Vietnam Campaign Medal[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3]Rifle Expert Badge[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3]Pistol Sharpshooter Badge[/TD] [/TABLE]

Another point of view that is a little more fair. [h=1]Pirates' Kyle Stark Uses Unusual Training Methods, But Are We Sure They're Wrong? http://pittsburgh.sbnation.com/2012/9/21/3369486/pirates-kyle-stark-navy-seals[/h] "The baseball world is having a laugh at some of the Pirates' training methods, but that doesn't make those methods wrong....My point is that, in the wake of yet another late-season collapse, a lot of the criticism the Pirates are currently receiving for this amounts to piling on, which is the easiest thing in the world to do. We simply don't know how effective three days of NAVY Seals training are at developing ballplayers.... Beyond that, though, it's possible to let your imagination run wild with this. Bucs prospects do many, or perhaps most, of their offseason workouts at Pirate City in Bradenton, in full public view. I've been there, albeit briefly, and everything I saw there (or read about in reports from there) seemed to be normal baseball stuff. Kovacevic is reporting about something that happened (as Kovacevic himself notes) for three days. Just three days. The Bucs' minor-leaguers had to wake up early in the morning, do push-ups and sit-ups, crab walk, and run along the beach while carrying large poles, among other activities. Should it strike us as significant that the players don't like waking up at five in the morning to flip over truck tires? No. Almost no one likes doing that. Does it mean anything that other teams think these routines are stupid? Not necessarily. The line between madness and genius can be thin, and I'd rather have the Pirates considering unusual routines than just going through the motions.....The point, though, is that we don't really know what effect these drills have had, and much of the laughter that's coming from those outside the situation really sounds like the guffawing certain kinds of people love to do just because someone dared to do something different. I'm not defending Stark. I don't know enough about whether I ought to. (And I'm not criticizing Kovacevic, who reported on a story that was clearly newsworthy.) But I do think that the Pirates' Navy SEAL training isn't the obvious joke it's been made to be." Hey, when your club has been in the toilet for 20 years, what's wrong with trying some outside-the-box thinking? We deride the local scribes, and the national writers for that matter, when their article solely relies on anonymous sources. That's all Passan does here, a Souhan-style pile-on to yet another promising Pirates season that ended in disaster.

Three other umpires on the field, and not one of them could be bothered to say, "hey, you ****ed up, maybe we should fix this?" The umpires beclowning of themselves continued as the Fox Sports nationally-"miked" home plate umpire continued screwing up the call in his between-inning interpretation and "explanation" of the call to Drew Butera. This call should not be needed for "ongoing umpire instruction", even little leaguers could immediately figure out this was a royal screw-up and the entire crew should be held accountable in some manner. In a more consequential game this could have been a disaster for a team in contention for the playoffs. FWIW, during the game today, Dick Bremer got a quote from an MLB umpire supervisor who said it was a screw-up and that it was a protestable call.

How about this afternoon's? Yikes.

3-4-5 is "not bad", but 2-3-4 "is bad". That begs the question: 1) What does that make the "1-2-3" scenario if the Twins decide that Baker/Gibson are designated as the other two starters and they both end up breaking down again?

Disagreement between those two versions of the metric is common. Neither is very good. Close to half of Mauer's PAs are as a DH or 1B, obviously not valued as highly a position as C. Besides that, he has hit extraordinarily better as a C (BA .361/OPS .951) than at the other two positions, where his numbers are just slightly above average for the position (BA .286/OPS .800). It appears that BA does account for this in its positional weighting, while Fangraphs doesn't properly take this into account.

I like the way he's seeing the ball and swinging the bat, gotta check his GB%, but it seems like a majority of his swings are on an elevated plane now. I thought he'd top out at 9 HRs. If he's especially focused, as I suspect, because he sees a potential 4th batting title in reach, I doubt he's going to taking any intentional HR swings the rest of the way (not that he does too often anyway). I'll settle for a .450 finish to close out the season- hitting line drive ropes and gappers. (For September he's batting .474 with a .1364 OPS).

There's a great story about the pre-eminent management theoritician of the 20th Century, Peter Drucker, born in Austria, yet became a closet baseball fan and late in life (nearly 80) was brought in to consult and completely break down and recommend how to rebuild the Cleveland Indians organization in 1986, all based on his managment theories, which he stated worked perfectly in baseball- a business chock full of unambiguous absolutes- success and failure is always out in the open. Despite never having been involved in baseball or sports, a foreigner, and in his late 70s, his 450 page report and the implementation of his recommendations resulted in an astonishing turnaround for the Indians- in one season they went from 60-102 (sound familiar?) to 84-78 and increased attendance by 137%. (http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2008-04-10/peter-druckers-winning-teambusinessweek-business-news-stock-market-and-financial-advice). Drucker presaged the "Peter Principle" (workers inevitably rising to their level of incompetence) and felt that the critically key thing for an organization to be successful is the correct placement of its managment personnel and maintaining constant review and assessment techniques relative to the organization's stated objectives. Inevitably in any organization, staleness, mismanagment and inefficiencies set in and employees must be moved or removed or the peak "performance capacity of the organization" will never be met. All too often, particularly in sclerotic hierarchical organizations (like the Twins?), these decisions are frequently not taken or managed. The consequences can be catastrophic (like the Twins? from the onset of the Bill Smith era- through to today?). Drucker concludes that: “people in organisations tend to behave as they see others being rewarded. When the rewards go to non-performance, to flattery or to mere cleverness, the organisation will soon descend into non-performance, flattery or cleverness.”

I haven't changed my view on Duensing. I've always viewed him as a guy should be pitching from the bullpen. He was higher on the last list because he was actually in the Twins' rotation. Back in June, when many actually believed that the Twins could still contend this year (I think you were in that group to some degree), you and others (obviously this includes the Twins braintrust) thought it was worth a shot compared to the other options available to the Twins at the time. The opposing view, based on past performance, predicted it would end in failure and waste valuable developmenal time for other options, besides messing with the budding career- and potential trading chip value- of Duensing, who was having a great year to that point. It didn't take a genius to make that call, another blunder by the Twins.

The Rangers released preseason #17-ranked Texas Ranger prospect, 24 year old LH Starter/Reliever Miguel de los Santos. He was quickly scooped up by the Milwaukee Brewers. Although he clearly hit the wall at AA this year, his career overall MiL K/9 rate is an awesome 13.6 and 11.2 at AA and a WHIP of 1.23. BA says his best pitch is a change-up with screwball action (rated best secondary pitch in entire Rangers system), FB only tops out at 90MPH, but has some movement, which also means he's a little wild (BB/9 of 4.9). I immediately thought "Sam Deduno", but de los Santos' stats to the same age as Deduno are better, a lot better. He will be a 6 year guy next January, so that makes his situation a little more problematic. The Twins, due to their last-place AL standing, had first crack at him and passed. What was the downside in taking a look at him? As Reusse pointed out this evening, the Twins #1 SP, Scott Diamond, wouldn't be more than the #7 SP on the White Sox and presumably even lower ranked on the even more pitching-deep Texas Rangers. For that matter, given the dire pitching situation up-and-down the system, why haven't the Twins been making any MiL FA waiver claims in their advantageous position?

Elvis can leave the building after 2014, so two reasonably priced years, not 3. Love to see it, but the price would likely be higher than you suggest. "Hamilton replaced by Span/Revere"? Won't the Rangers target Bourn as a priority FA replacement?

Hey GM Shane! What did you get in trade for Morneau?

---Well the Twins have certainly fared poorly in the postseason, but I don't put as much of the blame on Gardy as you do. Postseason baseball is team vs. team, not manager vs. manager. A lot of the Twins playoff losses were close games that turned on one or two plays that the other team made and the Twins didn't. Nathan blowing saves, Kubel completely forgetting how to hit, baserunning blunders, I just don't see how Gardy is to blame for these things. Injuries played a role too. Liriano in '06. Morneau in '09 and '10. In '87 we were on the other side of that with Jack Clark. Suppose Clark had played in that series while Hrbek had been on the self - does it come out the same way? And if no, then are we still talking about what a great manager TK was? As Riverbrian pointed out, the playoffs are a tiny sample size. Do the poor playoff performances of Rod Carew and Ted Williams detract from their legacies? Were they 'bedwetters' too? I also disagree with the dismissiveness with which Gardy's division titles are often viewed. The relative strength of the AL Central notwithstanding, to succeed year in and year out over the long grind of a 162-game season is a really tough thing to do. For all the talk about the legendary managerial genius of TK, he wasn't able string together multiple successful seasons like that. Up until 2010, the Twins were often significantly outspent by the White Sox and Tigers, so it's not like they had a huge talent advantage over their division rivals. There are regular season red flags about Gardy's tenure, as well. Even in this miserable 2012 season, the Twins have continued a long-established pattern of padding their overall W-L record against the mediocrities, with success against KC (11-7), Cle. (10-5) and the NL (9-9). 2012 Interdivision records, predictable, as past is prologue: Central (30-33 .476), East (10-18 .357), West (11-27 .289!). Throughout his tenure, Gardy has never developed changes in strategy (like Oakland, Texas and especially Tampa Bay) to be more consistently competitive outside of his own division.

This lineup actually has a chance to win. Great to see 4 healthier bodies back, 1 body back on the bench where he belongs, 6 straight lefty bats and 8 of 9 in the order and Gardy listening to the request to experiment with Revere in LF. This one might be worth watching.

I remember intense September baseball as well -- except for 2010 -- which was the beginning of the current debacle. What I don't remember is particularly intense October baseball. You can argue all you want about pitching and meeting better teams but I still believe that Gardenhire's teams have underperformed in the post-season. Ironically I believe that it is probably because of his regular season mentality. Gardenhire is all about the long view -- never get too high or low, there will be another game tomorrow. But the playoffs aren't like that. There WON'T always be another game tomorrow -- there is a premium on winning early (and now a premium on winning a 1-game playoff if you are a wild card team). I believe that Gardenhire's philosophy has served the Twins very well during regular seasons -- and I do believe that his teams have won a Central Division championship or two that they probably wouldn't have won under another manager. But I believe that same mind set has been pretty much a disaster in the post season. I don't hate Ron Gardenhire but the time has come for him to step down. It is time for an injection of new energy and ideas. It may be a disaster -- and it may be necessary to make more than one change -- but I'd rather see that than the stagnation we are currently witnessing (and that goes for the front office, too). September acts exactly like October. There is no tomorrow when you are fighting for a playoff spot. The difference is you don't play the last place teams in October. You don't survive September with "There is another game tomorrow mentality". Yes the Twins have underperformed in the post season... No one can dispute that... The record is clear to see... October baseball comes down to the best teams in that season. Who is hot and who is healthy. Ultimately... Playoff baseball is a small sample size. How you performed last year in the playoffs... or the year before that... or the year before that... or the decade before that... has nothing to do with the current year. A manager can lose 9 straight in the playoffs and then win a World Series the next time round. New Players every year... New Rotation every year... The context of each team changes from year to year. All managers should be equipped for the longview. You have to get in... To Win it... Disclaimer... If I was the owner... Based on my gut feeling and no inside information... I would be changing managers for 2013. I just don't buy the argument that Gardy sucks because of his Playoff record. Gardy has been nothing but a comparable success over 90 percent of the managers in baseball during his tenure. The Question is how much Gardy had to do with that? How much the GM had to do with that? How much the players had to do with that? How much the Baseball Gods had to do with? Playoff record... Same Questions? I just wish the anti-Gardy crowd don't take competeting for AL Central titles for granted. Gardy has had a hell of a run!!! Just because you believe the statements highlighted above in bold doesn't necessarily make them true. In the seasons where Gardy clinched early, his teams laid down immediately in the regular season and the opportunity to- get healthy, set up your rotation, gather your focus on the task ahead- still ended up in failure upon failure. Although there's always an inevitable amount of luck involed, winning more bigger-stakes games in October isn't only just one big cosmic crap-shoot. Gardy's teams have had Cy Young and MVP winners, as well as superior role players that other league champs and World Series winners found a way to win without. By the same token, he has found ways to maximize the Twins on-field success despite an owership that prioritizes the business bottom line over anything else. But to implicitly deny that Gardy's tenure has revealed blind spots and fundamental flaws in his managerial approach is just denying reality. FWIW, I don't hate Gardy and I don't represent the POV of the crowd you characterize as "Gardy Sucks". I don't have his photo pasted to a dart-board. I merely offered my own critical evalution of his time at the helm. I concur with your conclusion that it's time for a change after Gardy's great run- and that Gardy shares only his apportioned amount of the successes and failures with the others in the mix.