jokin
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Everything posted by jokin
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Subject Reed/Lawton trade, vis a vis, 2013 Twins as sellers. Actually, IMO, the trade wasn't a wash (and stop calling me shirley:roll:), Reed actually hurt the Twins in 2001 (which apparently was the point of the trade?) and the point of my post was to emphasize that Lawton was a very productive player and attractive trade bait at the time for the Twins in 01 and continued being productive for an extended period of time after. Reed pitched well for the Twins in 2002, but was very lousy in 01 and his career ended ignominiously in 03 with a 5.07 ERA and a commensurate collapse of career peripherals. The trade has to be regarded as a failure for the Twins, as they at least theoretically could have traded for "less-proven but more upside" talent of a younger age than Lawton (who was near 31 at the time of the trade). With one of the primary focal points in 2013 being who gets traded in-season, and for what talent is acquired in return, it's incumbent on the FO to take a little risk (like with the Meyer and May off-season trades) and attempt to get as much potential upside+ level players that could be part of the long-term solution and not the "safe" 37 year old retreads (Rick Reed) and/or cheap alternatives that the trading partners comfortably regard as so much detritus.
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St Louis Cardinals team performance at the #2 slot: 2012: 299/369/466/835 There is an obvious difference between the two leagues at the bottom of the order, so the comparisons can not be deemed equivalent. And of course, you veered the argument off the tracks, that was not the point being made, higher potential efficiencies in run production was the point. Additionally, the "quest for OPS", by adjusting the better overall hitters ordinally higher in the batting order is most certainly not the magic bullet that guarantees World Series success. Because of the expense and risk and time involved in assembling scarce pitching talent, it is a much less expensive way of incrementally improving chances in the interim of W-L success. Certainly, the element of luck (getting hot and "timely" at the right time) greatly helped the Twins in 1987, the Cards in 2011 and the Giants in 2012. Most importantly, pitching still is (at least) 70% of the game, witness the Giants success in 2010- with their league best K%, ERA and OBA and nearly best WHIP- and going back to their "timely" luck in 2012- they sported a near-league-best SP BABIP, helping to defy their Pythagorean projection which was only 88-74 (and Rod Carew was not a leadoff hitter for the vast majority of his career.)
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Article: Top Stories for 2013: #1 Gardy's Gauntlet
jokin replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Bruno is a far less likely candidate than Molitor or Gene Glynn. I'd put even money on Glynn moving in as interim manager at some point in 2013. -
This is 20th Century thinking and until now, representative of Gardy-thought. The entire AL East and many, many other managers are now placing high OPS players, combining some superior combination of OBP and SLG in the 2-hole, as the data is showing that SPEED, bunting ability and general "getting after it" situational scrappiness in the second slot is an inferior strategy.
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Really? Beg to differ. Carew's career batting slots: Leadoff: 370 games 2-Hole: 1149 games 3-spot: 679 games
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At least there's some consistency with the major league club!....Oops, not a good thing in this instance.... 10 pitchers on the Roc. DL? Is that some kind of record, or is that just where you hide the filler replacements when the sore-armed active-rostered pitchers inevitably break down?
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No problem, my snark calibrator was on the fritz this morning:)
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VERY Respectful and educational post to replace deleted post. These were the Mauer quotes that you didn't cite that did hint at Mauer's support of trying the 2-hole: As for Carew-Mauer, I never said they were the same kind of hitter. I said that other than bunting, there wasn't really anything that Mauer couldn't do that Carew did. As far as similarities, they both are high contact, high in-control, go with the pitch, hitters. As I stated by quoting Mauer's numbers, Mauer's OPS indicates the qualitative differences in their game with respect to power, his numbers obviously qualify him to bat 2nd as long-term studies indicate that the team's best hitter should be in the 2-spot, not the 3-spot. Regarding BB%, Carew had an 11.03% BB rate in the last 12 years of his career, a marked change from his early years, compared to Mauer's career 12.2% rate, so the patience factor isn't really that far off. And in Carew's last 12 years, his BB/K ratio was around 1.30 versus Mauer's career rate of 1.17. In addition, of Carew's 3053 hits, 78.7% were singles. Mauer's singles/total hits rate is 71.6%. The part of Beradino's article that would please AL East managers and the other enlightened 21st Century managers is this, and is a positive development if the Twins are finally seeing the light and catching on:
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I bet Gardy spit out the cherry pit, though, when Goin showed him the numbers. Seriously though, this also might actually benefit Dozier in taking some of the pressure off of him at the top of the order.
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Give Mackey credit for working double-time and overtime getting this out so quickly on Easter morning. Illustrating a little self-serving pat on the back and a point of humility both at the same time, just one day previous: Mackey: Twins won't do it, but it makes sense to bat Joe Mauer second | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins Regardless, more good news coming in baby steps that the Twins will (at least begrudgingly) apply and employ more efficient concepts in manufacturing wins.
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Update from the other Mauer 2-hole thread: Goin's computer must have spit- not coughed. Gardy blinked. I'll take that as progress.
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Goin's computer must have spit- not coughed. Gardy blinked. I'll take that as progress.
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The stats are pretty convincing, it really doesn't require much additional thought.
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Exactly what appalled me, as well, a guy whose team is coming off of 2 disastrous seasons is in no position to be sarcastic and condescending. But then again, maybe Gardy and Ryan are actually on to something-- after all, there is plenty of "room" for fossils in any discussion of "evolution."
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Gleeman and Wahl for the match!...(especially given the alternatives on the roster for batting second).
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I think it's clear that the Twins firmly established The Gray Threshold in 2012.
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Entering his 6th year in the minors, it would be nice if Pinto could force the issue this year with a breakout season at New Britain, leapfrogging the sundry collection of C placeholders at AA and AAA. It looks like his bat has come alive at the plate in 2012, do you have a good handle on how he's progressing behind the plate?
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Pelfrey was quoted as blaming the slider for the negative that occurred out there and remained hopeful that the velocity will get better as the season progresses. Not to doubt you and I admittedly didn't see the game, but 9 hits allowed and a HBP in 3.2 innings sounds like more than just 3 square-ups by the Sox. And Gardy was the definition of damning with faint praise: Certainly just another ST game and the fact that he hasn't publicly complained about pain or discomfort is good news. He seems like a guy you want to see succeed, right now it still seems like the odds are slightly to the long side for a completely healthy and effective 2013 season.
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Sounds like he's already sized up one of his whipping boys for 2013.
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All well and good in said article, except this: And further proof suggesting the difficulty of teaching the old dog new tricks: As Beradino aptly points out (he is an excellent addition to the Twins beat!), the game has evolved and Gardy clearly is still far behind the curve: It sounded like Mauer was diplomatic but reading between the lines, was all for the move. In the meantime, Gardy apparently forgets about the Twins 7-time batting champ who primarily batted 2nd and put up 328/393/429/822 for a career. The only thing Mauer can't (shouldn't) do that Carew could do is bunt. His career 323/405/468/873 speaks for itself, and since there is no logical alternative at #2, it's fairly obvious that putting the guy who OPS'd at all of .275 last year and cracked under the pressure (Dozier) should be at the bottom of the order and the best hitters should all move up one place in the lineup.
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Sorry, but Correia is in the rotation until his arm falls off- remember the fashionably acceptable "new normal" to rally around this year- 4-5 runs allowed over 5-6 innings...yaay!
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...and Neil Young...
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4 innings in ST? Meaningless. By that measure, nearly half the team's pitchers "struck out"- including the #1, #2 and #3 Starting Pitchers. A Gray-type experiment would more definitively answer the Slama question once and for all.
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I hold no illusions about Slama's possibilites for success (there is certainly only one way to find out!), but I do know that the Twins fall in love with characteristics that certain guys possess- like Burnett and Gray- and keep forcing the issue in the face of all the evidence- until they finally admit defeat. It's now gotten to the point that if Slama were to be successful on a sustained call-up, it would mean even more embarrassment for the organization that is on record belittling his minor league performance.
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Article: Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher
jokin replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
......the strong likelihood that Gardy will once again impulsively think that the Duens is the logical option to be inserted into the rotation when the second or third starter arms break down....