jokin

Uhh, good points RB, but the Twins are also heavily betting on rolling a "Hard 8" (get it? CF?) that last year for Hicks was wildly anomalous- ....and that now, literally, their only CFer, who will have to not only hit well above the Mendoza line, but, without another quality OF defender on the roster- will also have to carry the defensive weight for the entire OF- every single inning....of every game....

Just some of them? and only if they need to do so? I get what they're trying to set up, but do they have a firm plan in place to not only pull the trigger, but the willingness to cut Barlett after what they've just gone through in justifying him being on the 25-man? I still say they can keep Bartlett and option Florimon and Colabello if they find guys that can clearly be an upgrade.

That was Ben's take, anyway. And since Christy is right that it was probably close between Gilmartin (1st rd pick) and Darnell (6th rd. pick), I take that as not a good sign that he has regained full health and/or effectiveness, for the present season, anyway. The Baseball Cube's analysis illustrates this concern and why the jury should be out given his 2 bad performance stints at AAA: Gilmartin's ratings: [TABLE=width: 260] [TR=bgcolor: white] Control78 K-Rating55 Efficiency58 vsPower37 Health100 [/TR] [/TABLE] Darnell's ratings: [TABLE=width: 260] [TR=bgcolor: white] Control53 K-Rating36 Efficiency46 vsPower58 Health100 [/TR] [/TABLE] Regarding Gilmartin's AA year in 2012, yes it wasn't bad, but I still go with "fair to middlin" as I would have expected a First Rd. pick and a top 200-type prospect to have done a little better than that. He still has a slightly better 5-year projection than Darnell (Darnell projects to average around a 5.10 ERA/4.90 FIP over 5 years and never topping 0.4 fWAR vs. Gilmartin with a 4.73 ERA/4.80 FIP), but clearly he needs to return to full health, and then he must still surpass all of those on the list in front of him.

RPs come and go in terms of performing at peak effectiveness (and I'm more concerned about both Burton & Duensing, than Perk), fortunately guys like Deduno, Swarzak, Fien, Tonkin and others in Roc. and NB appear more than ready to step up and fill the slack (and there are at least a dozen guys on the waiver wire to choose from who might rediscover their mojo, as well).

Gladden was fawning over Walker and how impressive he looks, athletically speaking- like a cut football guy that can return kicks. Not only does Walker have to be starting out in Ft. Myers, I'm hoping that Walker can force the issue there in the first 2 months, since he's playing back in the familiar state where he played college ball for 3 years as an aid, maybe he can overcome the FSL hitters' curse and earn the mid-season AA promotion? That 100% SB rate really stands out combined with his power tool. Only one of Ortiz, Kvasnicka and Ray to beat out for an OF spot in New Britain. That would put him alongside Buxton in the Rock Cats OF, and within less than shouting distance for getting a major league call-up, just before, or soon after he only turns 23, either in September of this year or 2015.

It's been pretty widely reported that he will be a "likely" starter. I think Antony even mentioned it as well on the air. http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Scott_Diamond_accepts_assignment_will_pitch_at_TripleA_Rochester032914

This makes more sense and confirms what Biggentleben was saying about where Gilmartin was at ability-wise, right after the Doumit trade. He hasn't come close to mastering AAA in 2 tries and was only fair-to-middlin' in AA in 2012. The good news is he's still only 23 and has a little time to straighten things out on what looks to be a pretty good club at New Britain. He better make it happen in the next season and a half though, because the power arms in A and A+ will be right around him by then, and he appears to be walking a fine line with his stuff.

Yes. But I'm also amazed that they're amazed. Is it the "TwinsPrez's" place to be questioning his paying customers, or addressing their concerns? "Team Chemistry Whisperer" as 25th man has to come out of the same PR noggin' as "Bi-lateral Leg Weakness".

Except you leave out the fact of how precariously structured this roster is and with the huge number of guys threatening at any moment to be close to below-replacement, just hoping to somehow get to 1 WAR by season's end themselves. Man oh man, if we could get 1 WAR from our 24th and 25th man, combined, that would practically make them potential starters at 7 of 9 positions. Freaking Adam Rosales and his .1 WAR would be playing somewhere and contributing nearly every day on this team, and the Texas Rangers thought enough of him with those numbers to acquire him for the stretch run (think "youthful" Doug Bernier). Consider the 2013 fWAR achievements of the following: Florimon 1.3 Plouffe 0.4 Suzuki 0.4 Willingham 0.0 Parmelee -0.2 Arcia -0.4 Escobar -0.5 Hicks -0.7 Kubel -1.7 (And the bar for producing a positive fWAR isn't high at all, the late and unlemented Clete Thomas got a 0.4 in 2013). That's a net fWAR at -0.7 of production in 2013 from 7 of 9 projected starters, COMBINED. Mauer's WAR will drop from 5.2 into the 3s, even if he has a banner year at the plate. And the Twins should consider themselves lucky if Dozier shows no regression from the 2.8 he achieved in 2013. So even if you project those 2 to produce, say, 6.2 WAR- that's still going to be a drop of 1.8 fWAR. And there has been little shown this spring that anyone else has broken out to potentially score particularly above their 2013 levels, and many have looked worse, or much worse, consider: -Pinto may be of help, but it seems pretty certain that he won't be moving into a full-time role any time soon (the broadcast today thought a 2/3 Suzuki to 1/3 Pinto split of games was "about right"). -Hicks and Arcia may have breakout years, but Arcia has shown nothing to suggest that he has improved his troubling K and BB rates, as well as his defense. And we all know what may and may not happen with Hicks and how difficult it is to judge his ST performances. I do like him batting 8th, but that of course reduces his WAR should he actually produce from that spot, sandwiched between Suzuki and Florimon, versus leading off instead. -Florimon is still recovering from an appendectomy, and now the entire league has a book on him at the plate- I expect a significant drop from that 1.3 WAR number he got last season. -And we know about the other veterans and newcomers who "made" the team, but would probably look more productive in a zombie mask on the set of "The Walking Dead". It would be nice to have guys, at the ready on the roster, both to pick up on opportunities to contribute when they occur: -utilizing split advantages at the plate, -along with timely use of speed -and fielding expertise, -and to challenge however many guys who fail to produce for their spots in the lineup. Both the Twins FO and Manager from Day 1 of the offseason to today, March 29, have openly admitted that this situation is a huge problem and expressed concern about attending to the need to upgrade the offense, but have done nothing substantial whatsoever to back up that alleged concern. And now they don't even have a 4th OF/Backup CF with major league experience. Somewhat incredible.

Yes, exactly my point. First and third are basically no different in the risk, but I would lean to the possibly of a slight edge at first because of many more chances for body contact or a tipped ball to the noggin- maybe not the impact like a screamer at third, but at this point, the cumulative effect won't require a 120MPH line drive to be a career-threatener. And the Morneau cumulative thing was also my point, as in his case- what really looked like a non-incident at the time, at this point in Mauer's career, you have to cringe a little every time he slides into a base.

Which "numbers factor"? Too many SPs, or too many LBs?

How about scheduling more of his starts against more home plate umps like the one who did the game today (Thomas Newsom)? Both Deduno (5Ks out of 6 outs) and Doubront figured out that not only were they getting all the borderline, over the plate, at-the-knee strikes, they also got the at-the-shin ones, as well. Apparently, no one told Hughes what was up (er, down). I'm sure there are ump charts out there, right?

You may very well be right about Mauer never playing 3B, but playing at 1B doesn't really take Mauer more out of harms way relative to playing 3B. Maybe a few less line drives and hard smash/bad hop groundballs, but lots more collision posibilities and potential missed balls in your general direction at first. (Recall the rather fluky, low-impact collison/concussion at 2B for Morneau.)

Actually FWIW, Antony, on the broadcast today put the final few roster moves pretty much all on Gardy as having made his case for why they deserved to be here and how he intended to use them.

FWIW. On the broadcast today, Antony said that Parmelee's defensive role doesn't matter in Rochester and that all he has left to prove is that he's back to the aggresive hitter he was in 2011 and 2012 and he will earn another shot with the Twins. Is it fair to read that as more focus in Rochester as a DH and a first call-up should Kubel or Arcia falter?

Thankyou for saying what is obviously truthful and so easily dismissed by some. Given the depth of mediocrity, guys past their prime and/or with injury history and inexperience on this team and the clear fact that the A's and Rays are succeeding with lots of similar low/mid-quality players and few superstars, it is even more important for any hope of success this season that the Twins attempt to get positive WAR from the 24 and 25 guys- who, given the above reasons, could be forced to be inserted into a bigger role at any moment. And now Bartlett has spent 40 days being groomed as the (Not So) Super-Utility guy. And he actually got his shot at batting leadoff today and battling the RF fence as much as major league pitching. And there was an actual Super-Util guy available on the waiver wire just a couple months ago in Bonifacio- who also would have been an excellent leadoff option a couple of days a week. Right now the Twins available leadoff batter is.....Dozier (sort of).....and......???

A Drew/(revitalized)Bartlett platoon is a nice thought, but the Twins have absolutely no shot at signing Drew after the June date. His value goes up dramatically for every contending team, and particularly the Red Sox, who can then recoup their 1st Rd. compensation pick by signing him. (If such a scenario were ever going to happen, the Twins had to play poker and sign Drew going into ST, Drew was willing to play 3B or 2B, setting up nice platoon scenarios at those positions, waiting to see if Bartlett would pan out in supplanting Florimon).

Bonficaio for Bartlett Sizemore for Kubel. Mitchell for Clete Thomas/ie, emergency call-up CF Parmelee cleared anyways, + Mastro in Roc. Better talent overall. Much better roster OF depth than a guy who has never played the position in the ML in Bartlett. Younger. Healthier. All obtainable/retainable for the same or less $$$.

Bart-ie as "the One who Knocks?" or as the Twins own Team Chemist-Alchemist, if you will, a PED-Free, Dr Heisenberg Feelgood-Aboutourselves? Or maybe this might be the secret to our Team Chemist's success in 2014?: http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m7ajlvnTYK1ry7ppro1_500.jpg

Bombo, I made a similar joke in one of the threads around the same time. I believe he got his first hit that day or a day or two within the day of him manning CF, so both developments obviously proved Gardy prophetic. I'm not sure if you were around at the time he became available, but I would love for someone to come on and explain how this current situation with Bartlett as the 25th guy is better than getting Emilio Bonifacio for free two months ago. Unlike Bartlett, Bonifacio has actually played the 6 positions that Jason is now suddenly qualified for- and he saw more PAs last September than Jason has seen in the last 2 years.

Oh..as you were wondering in another thread, Florimon does also have options left, which I guess also allows them to keep him Florida a little while longer, but not 15 days, if necessary.

Which again invites a scenario in April similar to last year- bordering on malfeasance. While it's virtually impossible to see Hicks starting out as badly as 2013 (and Gardy won't let him get anywhere near the top of the order any time soon), not only is the "worst-case scenario" of a major injury not appropriately accounted for, but neither is the situation where Hicks only performs marginally better than 2013, but still below major league minimum standards. And they have already cut their 2014 Clete Thomas, in one Jermaine Mitchell. Baffling all the way around....... UNLESS.... there's a De Aza-type trade in the works or some waiver wire guy they're counting on picking up as Plan B and Plan C depth.

Besides his recently expressed specific concern that Florimon wasn't ready, Gardy has also expressed frequent doses of "Florimon-is-my-starter" support, and that he's "just trying to get him going, here...", kind of crash-coursing him to good health, as it were. Beat writers are openly speculating about his readiness, I doubt the Twins would want to tip their hand about Florimon until they absolutely have to do so. It would seem that with a surgical situation, rather than an injury, the Twins may have some leeway here, citing medical opinions, as to when, how and if they might choose to exercise the DL (I have no idea as this idea of "rehab" relates to ST vs. Regular season games)? Or maybe they are just willing to let him start the first 15 days on the DL if that's how it works out physically?

But Beresford is an Aussie, and Gardy not only doesn't speak that language, he is also likely wary of his LukeHughes/LiamHendriks-ness. As for the other 3, they haven't qualified for the new Twins newly-established position, "Team Chemistry Coach", which at least on a day-to-day basis until another move is made, is Bartlett's new position with the club. The quotes from Gardy and Antony are not too encouraging about the clubhouse situation, or even the final certainty of Bartlett in his new role. Phil Miller even speculated out loud that Bartlett might also become Aaron Hicks' personal mentor. Frankly, the quotes sounded like making it up as they went along: http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/252838671.html

Bad luck? Art over science? I'd rather philosophically go with teams like the Cards and Rays in their ability to identify, draft and develop- from the bottom of the draft and on a budget. They seem to have their processes down to a science rather than an art, thus making their own "luck", rather than using it as an excuse for repeated failure.