jokin

Everything has been qualified in advance with the presumption that he kicks the door in with his AA/AAA performance this spring. Don't take my word for it. Both ZIPS and Steamer project that Meyer would be the Twins 2nd best starter: [TABLE=class: sortable] [TR=bgcolor: #50ae26] [TH=align: left]Player [/TH] IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: #c7d9ec] [TD=align: left]Ricky Nolasco [/TD] 177.7 761 18.3% 5.1% .304 4.20 4.10 104 101 [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: #ffffff] [TD=align: left]Alex Meyer [/TD] 100.7 447 20.6% 10.5% .304 4.20 4.35 104 108 [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: sortable, align: center] [TR=bgcolor: #50ae26] #[TH=align: left]Name[/TH] Age Hand IP K% BB% kwERA kwERA- WAR[/TR] [TR=bgcolor: #ffffff] 3[TD=align: left]Alex Meyer[/TD] 24 RHP 150 22.8% 12.1% 4.03 104 1.6[/TR] [/TABLE]

From the same article, but still not very illuminating on what's actually going on: Murkier and murkier. I'm surprised that more questions haven't been asked of management about Rosario's status.

From article dated March 8: http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/03/08/twinsights-eddie-rosario-dealing-with-personal-issues-agent-says/ Are the Twins truly cursed with their top prospects? This is 2 guys in their top 5 who are on the verge of seeing this season go completely to waste.

Were this all to be true, then it was also just as foolhardy to spend $84M on a series of second-tier starting pitchers- and they made an earnest attempt to acquire a frontline starter, besides. Which direction is this team going? I stand by my roadsign above, this team is really caught between a rock and a hard place, and Antony's comments show some combination of a guy frustrated at that very notion, an element of newbie naivete and in over his head as far as his public pronouncements on personnel issues.

http://nbchardballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/scott-baker-getty.png?w=200&h=170&crop=1 "You don't say?" "Nuff said"http://media.scout.com/Media/Image/31/316385.jpg

I understand that the concept starts from a presumed baseline. I spelled out the case that you don't necessarily need to spend an additional $210M in annual payroll to get an additional 30 wins from that baseline. Can we all agree with USAF Chief, that this concept of WAR is still an inexact science, at best?

Welcome back, Mr Brooks. It seems like more voices like yours are needed, as the TD community, as well as the club itself, are uncomfortably "caught" at the proverbial road sign: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-53xi8FepdeY/TiNuuwyaRCI/AAAAAAAAAZc/qtQZFzjcgZE/s1600/images+rock+%2526+hard+place.jpg

Here, here! Yeah, the math doesn't really add up that it "really" costs you $210M/YR in acquisitions to pick up only 30 wins. And putting all of your eggs in an Albert Pujols basket is certainly not the way to go. Improvement at multiple positions, a little bit at some and a lot at a few others, now you're at least competitive- and then let the chips fall where they may. Only 85 wins won the AL West back in 1987- and then series wins over Detroit and St Louis . Yes, the wheels would have to fall off the cart in Detroit and KC to get there, but none of this is unprecedented. The Twins key offseason acquisitions after 1986 (71 wins)? Jeff Reardon, Juan Berenger and Ron Gardenhire. And 85-90 Wins in 2014 was at least within the outside realm of possibility with just a couple additional major league bats in the lineup and one more elite SP- many of us have shown that these moves could have been accomplished for right around the 2011 payroll number, plus throw in some impact help from some current sophs and a rookie prospect or two, stranger things have happened. The current rotation, sans Correia, plus a Garza, plus an improved Gibson, plus 2nd half impact from Meyer, is at least an even bet to cut the ERA by a full run. And adding 2 elite bats plus some positive regression from existing players and some help from the youngsters and newbies makes it a fair bet to increase runs scored by at least .5 runs/game. So all in all, that's about 1/7th the net additional cost- compared to the proposed $210M for 30 "wins"- to at least make a decent attempt to get close to a 20 win improvement.

Auditioning mummies? I tend to demur with your conclusion. I have a sneaking suspicion both Jason's are about to be re-animated, and that they already have their chosen crypts in place, stenciled in with their names and numbers in the Target Field Locker Room (and Mausoleum).

But unfortunately, thus far it appears that both Presley and Hicks look like they could use a road map, as well. My argument was that essentially 10 more days with the big league club would actually help Buxton look much less lost, again, thinking about the long run here (September call-up? April 2015?), and keeps the pressure on Hicks and Presley to step up their games if they want to stick around in the long run. Meyer looked fine. Comparable pitchers in other organizations are already on a more accelerated timeline. And based on the results for much of our alleged pitching depth, Meyer is clearly, literally and figuratively, head and shoulders above most every other alleged "potential major league pitcher" in that group he was up against. I get that the Twins might be looking to stash one or more of their "starting pitchers" in the pen to start out the season. But Antony is on record now complaining about the need for guys to step up, and since that's the case, when a guy is demonstrating in real time how close he is to sticking for good, he should be given the benefit of the doubt, and given the longer look he has earned. Again, I was never arguing that Meyer should be on the opening day staff, but now Gardy confirms what we both saw- and regrets his lack of "say-so", and he's publicly licking his chops about getting him back up here ASAP. It's worked in St. Louis and other places, if Meyer continues to excel, let's put him in the pen right after the Arb cutoff date in early May- I am confident that the sea of mediocrity amongst the pitching staff will make who he can replace well-known by that point in time. Assuming he's on limited innings this year, I want as many of them with the major league club as is realistically possible.

I fear the worst. Bartlett is Gardy's new Super-UTIL guy and Kubel gets the spot because he's good in the clubhouse, and the Twins would never reneg on a handshake agreement. But hey, at least they stopped the pretend-game with the offseason Eric Fryer-crush- so maybe there's hope. Re Butera, the Dodgers seem to have brought out his inner-Mike (Scioscia or Piazza, take your pick). NL pitchers beware.

But that's not what I said, and I don't appreciate the mischaracterizations. What I did say was to offer a Twins top 11-20 prospect and an established RP plus one of the Twins spare 1B-men (which could include Plouffe) and see what the Astros thought---- as a place to start the negotiations. They clearly have already indicated that they don't want to pay Castro longer-term and they might desire something from what the Twins have to offer. You don't know what's of interest to another club until you ask- if the price is too dear, no harm done, you simply walk away.

The evidence for their recent past "aggresiveness" is there to see. Look for the guys who are playing "consistently" in AAA. Instead of Walters, Albers and DeVries, think Kris Johnson, Sean Gilmartin and Brooks Raley. And instead of Dinkleman, Bernier and Clete Thomas, think Jermaine Mitchell, Wilkin Ramirez, Brandon Waring and.... er, Bernier. But seriously...if they are punting once again....from a business-side outlook, what's the point in early call-ups to Meyer, Gibson, May, Pinto, Buxton, et al???- who they think they can still save significant payroll money on by delaying their service time-clocks. Until they change their viewpoint in this regard, I fear that 2014 is looking like 2011-13 Redux. (And I don't see how they can keep Hicks off the opening day roster, but then again, Jason Bartlett made the spectacular catch in CF and got a hit today, so Gardy just may have found his back-up OFer after all.)

Yeah. It's pretty clear from all his talking, that sorting out the 3 out of options guys is the only concern at this point. It also must indicate that they aren't thinking one iota of moving Correia any time soon, as well. And kind of messes up all of his rhetoric about the alleged tough talk and fighting for jobs.

Well, he could give a kick in the tail to some of the guys who already have a job guaranteed. (I have enclosed a couple tools he could use to motivate, if not embarrass): Kubel ST slash: .080/.233/.200/.433 Willy ST slash: .080/.172/.120/.292 Bartlett ST slash: .037/.133/.037/.170 Butera ST slash: .182/.400/.545/.945 Drew says: "Suck on that, my former Homies, I'm better than all you guys, combined." http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/multimedia/photo_gallery/1206/mlb.poll.best.catcher/images/Drew-Butera.jpg

Why not? Look what he's done for the Dolphins with his Latin Community outreach. http://cdn.ph.upi.com/pv/upi/7f30d54d323371a707a83dd96664d2fb/Marc-Anthony-becomes-part-owner-of-the-Miami-Dolphins.jpg

Good post. Gardy's usually closer to the vest, verbally speaking. And TR has taken all the blame for failing to get Gardy the pitching he needs to be respectable the last 2 years, so I was wondering if that might have granted him some leeway "say-so" that he hasn't had in the past. But great point, the familiarity factor with Antony is probably still a work in progress- and Gardy feels comfortable enough with his new 2-year contract to speak his mind a little bit. It was certainly a good tease for us as fans and sets himself up for more "negotiating" when we get to crunch time next week. I also want to make it clear, I wasn't necessarily saying that Meyer and Buxton should have gone North on opening day, I have merely been questioning since the move on March 8, how unprecedentedly quickly that the Twins moved their top 2 prospects out of the major league camp. Hicks was out until last Wednesday, plus there were split squad games. Presumably both Buxton and Meyer would benefit from the best coaching and competition.- at least another 10 days or so before being moved down to the minor league camp. And as far as Meyer getting stretched out, he could have pitched in a simulated situation in conjunction with say, three more MLB 2-inning stints, or combined reps with both the major and minor league games when they played games simultaneously.

Agreed, by themselves, neither spare Twins First Baseman would bring much. But it's important to note how truly awful the Astros are at the position. The starter, Guzman, is a journeyman on his 5th club and nearing 30 with only 252 MLB ABs and poor defensively (and he's been even more awful at the plate this spring), and the reigning Strikeout King, Chris Carter, is primarily the DH for very good reasons, defensively speaking. They are apparently holding off on bringing up their heir apparent at the position for now, so spending bigger money on a more established First Baseman to this point, is not considered a good option for the short-term. If the Astros are calling around and would be interested in considering a low risk, minimum wage 1B (they don't have a LH hitting option), who might surprise to the upside for this year and next, plus perhaps a MLB RP and/or an 11-20 prospect, I'd like to see what it costs to get their Catcher.

I agree with everything you said. But really, looking to resurrect Pressly as a starter begins to look like more of the straw-grasping, who's-yer-starters-this-week? game of last year. I'd prefer not to go down that path until we find out more about Gibson, Deduno, Johnson and then, Meyer.

I only used "dirty laundry" on a sparing basis in particular response to Gardy's rather strong choice of words: “He got ramrodded out of here pretty quick...before I....." I am in full agreement on Meyer. If he's performing as expected in Roc., get him up here in a relief role right after his arb date if a starting spot has not yet materialized. On an innings limit, I'd prefer as many of them be MLB ones as possible. Gibson too. It sounds like a mental thing as much as physical for Gibson, not much left to prove for him in Rochester (and he isn't getting any younger).

Frankly, I'm stunned you made it this far. It's going to be a long......season.

Is it at all interesting how Gardy aired the "dirty laundry" side of ST personnel decision-making regarding Gibson and especially, Meyer? I never before heard that a manager gets "say-so" at any point in Spring Training. And kind of interesting too, that he's already pining for missing the opportunity for a longer look at Meyer than just one week? Or did he let out the hint that there's a scenario envisioned where Meyer might come up in a relief capacity at some point (perhaps just after the Arb cutoff date?) and BEFORE, a starting spot actually opens up?

With Doumit and Butera gone, wasn't it likely that Gardy is the one who made the "maddening" case to management and "won" that case? My impression is, right or wrong, he would feel utterly lost with a EASL rookie and a series of marginal and inexperienced players manning what he sees as his most important field position. The "leadership" angle also really jumps out as in interesting aside, mentioning Torrii Hunter, AJ and Suzuki, but not Mauer.

In another thread, I questioned why 2 of the 3 brightest lites for the near-term hopes of turning this franchse around, Meyer and Buxton, were shipped out so early after the Camp opened. It made me wonder out loud about the decision-making process and who is looking for what? why?...and when? Now we have this quote from Berardino's article, regarding using some of the up-and-coming starters in relief roles, as other teams are doing more frequently: It begs the questions- When exactly does Gardy get the say-so? Was it last Sunday's second round of cuts? Or does it not happen until the final cut to 25? http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/03/17/twinsights-could-kyle-gibson-land-in-the-minnesota-twins-bullpen/

If he pans out like most of us think he will, he will likely follow the Trout timeline. Trout got a record $1M for a pre-arb player this year, with the understanding that a timeframe for discussions is now in place with the Angels for a 6-year extension starting in 2015- buying out the 3 arb years and the first 3 years of FA.