jokin

FWIW, ZIPS is pretty well-established as the "Debbie Downer" of the projection services.

And that's the point of this whole exercise. The "worst team in the last 4 years" notion just doesn't fit the facts on the ground. The undue pessimism just seems way off base with pitching being such a more important component to success than offense. Moreover, if Meyer can emerge this year as a legit #2 SP candidate going into 2015, and Gibson fully capable at the back-end, with Nolasco and Hughes continuing somewhere in the middle, now you're only looking at the need in acquiring one top-end arm at around Garza-level in FA next offseason to radically change this staff's ranking to near the top third in the AL by next year.

I'm more optimistic on Meyer than the numbers I posted. I purposely low-balled my estimate, directly using the ZIPS projection for Alex. My purpose was to demonstrate that the Rotation had been upgraded to the point that no one should be surprised if it was able to accomplish near league average numbers, with room to be a little better, and with more upgrading to do in 2015 (I really liked that the Twins went after Garza and Sanatana, it gives me hope that the Twins recognize that their work in this area is not yet done). And 900+ innings is very realistic for this group, plus the spot starters, and obviously, that does wonders for bullpen effectiveness.

Right. And I simply tried to construct an "in-the-ballpark", grounded scenario for the Twins SPs, just to try to get close to 2013 AL SP league average ERA, which was 4.15. And I put Gibson and Meyer in the mix with low ball, conservative projections of what they might be capable of doing. So now you're 7 deep with guys that no one should be surprised if any one of them went out and had career year numbers unfamiliar in these parts, short of Scott Diamond's 3.54 season in 2012- if you lose, say, 2 guys to injury or ineffectiveness, you very well could have at least 2 guys who might be pitching above expectations in the Scott Diamond, mid-3s in ERA. And barring that, you have 2 guys in reserve who very well might pick up all of the slack and more from the guys who go down. I just think it's far more realistic to be optimistic than pessimistic about the Rotation- especially when you compare this year's opening day SPs to last year's- and why this point alone negates any notion that this could possibly be the worst Twins team in 4 years.

Mijares is in the exact same situation as Guerrier, ie, having to work his way back on a minor league deal, except Mijares is only 29 and has been an excellent LOOGY in the recent past (K/9 of 13.13 vs. LHB in 2013, even in a down year). As Brock quoted TR, you can never have enough pitching. And veteran relief pitchers are a funny lot, when they strike lightning, they can do well or even dominate for a certain period of time, and then, poof- they break down physically or just lose it, for whatever the reason. And then they have to regain their health or add a new pitch or refine their mechanics- just to stay in baseball- and all of sudden, voila, many regain the magic. You don't want to get stuck with too many sunken cost 7-figure contracts with RPs that have suddenly gone "poof", without cheaper veteran arms at the ready to complement your younger, inexperienced prospect arms. Mijares, like Guerrier, is in his "poof" phase right now, so it costs nothing on a minor league deal to see if he can get in better shape and get his arm strengthened and then catch some more of that LOOGY magic.

I don't think either one of us can anticipate or care to predict who will get injured. I did say that they now potentially have 7 guys who appear to have the ability to have real qualifications to be able to get major leaguers out, so there are reasonable alternatives should an injury occur. And as others have stated, the element of luck concering health is bound to change- especially when you improve your luck by having a few more veterans with a reasonable track record of good health. But let's talk about assumptions of regression. Pelfrey seems destined towards "regression", but positively, as does Hughes. I optimistically predicted some relative negative regression for Nolasco and Correia, just not all the way back to the mean. And clearly, I am granting far more value to recent results than career averages. And I'll plead guilty to assuming some realistic "progression" on the parts of both Gibson and Meyer (with the help of ZIPS and Steamer, I might add). And while my prediciton isn't an "impressive result", I never claimed it to be- it's clearly not where the Twins need to be if they hope to compete sooner rather than later, but most importantly, that is not the point made by the OP in topicing this thread originally. In that respect, we appear to be talking past each other, but there's a crystal clear point, which is one we all should agree upon, Vance Worley was designated as the "Ace" of the staff just about one year ago, the pitching staff had only one direction to go from there- I am much more optimistic about the 2 proven acquisitions and the 2 up-and-comers producing decent years than I was about Worley- even before his meltdown last season.

I responded to you specifically based on this "out there" statement: Of course, nothing is a given- I said there's "a good chance to be the best in the last 4 years", and of course injuries are a possibility, but as I demonstrated, the stats cited are completely within the realm of possibility, and the 6th and 7th starters offer much more upside in the event of injury. Nope, not true. Nolasco, projected lower than last year. Hughes, projected on a bounceback at slighly worse than his decent 2012 numbers. Pelfrey, projected lower than his 2013 July/Aug ERA and lower than his 3.99 FIP of 2013. Correia, projected slightly lower than last year- in a contract year. Deduno, projected basically the same as last year, pretty doable in a diminished SP role. Meyer, I straight up used the usually negative ZIPS projection. Gibson, you got me, I am optimistic that he can start 20 games with a 4.50 ERA. These are basic facts, grounded far more in reality than your comparison of this year's rotation to Hendricks, Hernandez, Albers, Worley. Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey were the only guys of whom I gave full-season projections. Correia will be gone by the deadline and Gibson and Meyer will llikely be up and down, with Deduno maybe getting 8 spot starts. Pitching is at least 70% of the game, and you can account for, and make a lot of, your own luck by simply keeping your team in more ballgames. This SP group is far more likely to do that than any time in the last 4 years. And yes, that improvement will resound to the BP, for which there's little reason to think that, as a complete group with new additions, that they can't be as good as last year, or even a little more.

The books weren't cooked, the numbers cited are reasonable estimates, based on projections and career averages and trends. And you will determine, and are entitled to, your own level of pessimism, but your previous comparison to the current Starting Rotation was more than a little "out there". And as Christy stated, the depth beyond the first 7 pitchers is way better than last year, with Diamond, Johnson, May and a couple other actual prospects in AAA who may well emerge. So in answering the OP's topic, the Rotation stands a good chance to be the best in the last 4 years, and provides evidence for a win total in the low 70's (which is my prediciton).

Based on recent history the following results should be possible and not unexpected: Nolasco- 4.00 ERA 3.1 fWAR 210 (3.67/yr avg. WAR) Hughes- 4.33 ERA 1.8 fWAR ("Out of New York" effect) Correia- 4.25 ERA 1 fWAR (Contract year, 4 months w/ Twins) Pelfrey- 4.19 ERA 3 fWAR (2013- 2.1 WAR/3.99 FIP/3.59 ERA in July/Aug) Gibson- 4.50 ERA 1.1 WAR (Like Pelf, 2nd year back from TJ) Meyer- 4.20 ERA 1.3 WAR (That's the usually negative ZIPS projection) Deduno- 3.75 ERA 0.7 WAR (Spot start stats only) That's 12 fWAR from your top 7 starters. Nolasco- 210 IP/33 GS Hughes- 185 IP/30 GS Correia- 125 IP/20 GS Pelfrey- 190 IP/31 GS Gibson- 110 IP/20 GS Meyer- 110 IP/20 GS Deduno- 50 IP/8GS 2014 SP totals- 980 IP/162 GS/~4.25 ERA/12 WAR 2013 SP totals- 871 IP/162 GS/5.26 ERA/4.6 WAR Obviously, that's potentially more than just technically right. And the extra 109 IP eases a lot of stress on the bullpen from which you expect significant regression (overall, with the potential new arms coming in, I disagree with that conclusion). No pie in the sky career years in this forecast and no starts from the PJ Walters/Cole DeVries/Liam Hendriks/Pedro Hernandez fringy crew.

This guy was hired originally in the PR department and doesn't understand the rules against using double and triple negatives in your public communications?

I wrote about this the other day. Arcia has a 33% K-rate this spring against largely AAA pitching, and his RF performance has been painfully brutal- at times Delmon-esque. As yet another player with remaining options, this gives the Twins their rationale for keeping Parmelee and/or picking up a veteran OF this week via trade or the waiver wire.

Color my mind bended, whatever shade that might be in the vast "Cosmos"***. When the Twins traded for AP back on September 1, I groaned, both for the lack of return for Morneau, and for knowing that the Twins had yet again raised the TD confusion quotient on players whose last names begin with the letter "P" ("Plufe", "Pelphrey", "Parmalllee", "Pressley").... only with this transaction...... they compounded the quandry with, Egads!, a surname homonym!..... and we can't even get the latest one right the majority of the time, even though Alex Presley has the common spelling of one of the most famous Americans of the 20th Century. *** http://i.imgflip.com/7q00h.jpg

I think you are right. But he has been simply horrible this spring, and I would hypothesize that he might not have come into camp in good shape, given his, ahem, "body type". If nobody rings his phone in the next 5 days while all of the marginal guys are glutting the market, he might be more amenable to a chance to get his stuff together "back home" with the Twins on an incentive-laden split contract with opt-out.

Add Alex Meyer and Michael Tonkin to this list of "if" reasons to stay positive. I think you're correct that they can pick someone up for the OF and a Bat, only with the cold reality striking the Twins FO in the face this week, it could very well happen as soon as next week.

I'm with you on the defense, but primarily the OF, the IF won't be too bad. No queston the offense stands a good chance to be worse. But the silver lining in the bullpen- and while I concur there may be some regression from last year's crew- is that there is immediate available alternative help at the ready---and Gardy has gone public in even maybe adding Meyer to that mix of good young arms like Tonkin champing at the bit in AAA and AA. Not only that, but consider: 1) Signing Guerrier could end up being a shrewd move on a healthy bounceback, 2) If I was Antony, I'd be ringing Jose Mijares' agent about a minor league deal as a backup plan for the LOOGY role, plus there are bound to be a couple more guys available for free next week. 3) Speaking of LHB pitching dominance, Deduno in an RP role is intriguing. Consider this 2012-2013 record of all qualifying pitchers against LHB, this is some pretty lofty company to be ranked #3 in this list- 1) Cliff Lee 1.56 ERA/98 IP 2) Jose Fernandez 1.91 ERA/89 IP 3) Samuel Deduno 2.04 ERA/111 IP 4) Jered Weaver 2.20 ERA/208 IP 5) Kris Medlen 2.42/171 IP 6) Gerrit Cole 2.58/52 IP 7) Matt Harvey 2.59/125 IP 8) Justin Verlander 2.67/263 IP 9) Johnny Cueto 2.69/137 IP 10) Matt Cain 2.74/130 IP

Add in Arcia, Presley and Kubel to that OF mix, and in the immortal words of Gardy, circa 2011: "...that's scary.....scary." But I'm trying to stay optimistic and say that the team is hitting rock bottom as we speak..... and I'm sticking with my 70-74 number with the starting pitching lowering it's ERA by around 1 run/game. Why, you ask? There were 49 one run games in 2013 and 16 extra inning games. With an improved rotation and some rookie help on the way, the bullpen will be less taxed, meaning shooting for giving up one less run/game gives you many more chances to win 4-9 more close games in 2014 than the 24 won in 2013. And might I add to that, the SOS of this year's schedule is essentially the same as last year's, with Detroit possibly coming a little back to the pack in the Central.

It was pretty widely reported at the time of the Kubel signing that he had at least one offer on the table that he had declined, leading reporters to speculate then that Kubel was coming to the Twins with pretty strong assurances for making the club and a bonus-heavy split contract that was potentially more attractive than the major league offer(s?). Of course, we'll never know for sure. As for you and you being the only Twins fan out there screaming, that didn't mean that there weren't others of us out there questioning the signing, there was a long thread on Twins Daily after the signing, especially with the documentation of the alarming K% trend over the last 4 years and his well-known dislike for Target Field.

Can you put me down for the "versatile" Chris Hermann getting 19 of those 20?

I guess it depends on what your read, but everything I've read has indicated that Kubel turned down major league offers to sign with the Twins. I haven't found a Twins beat writer yet who isn't operating on the presumption that Kubel is on the opening day roster. On a realated note, we have been having discussions on other threads noting that Arcia has looked bad in the OF and has a 33% K rate this spring. Might he be the one ticketed to Rochester for more seasoning and awaiting the next roster opening?

I thought I was the only one that was noticing. This might be an overlooked development in the upcoming roster decision crunch. I can see that some might have overlooked his butchery in the OF, as that was to be expected. But after today's results with the Phils, Arcia has now struck out 14 times in 42 PAs, a 33% K rate, against an average hurler/PA of only slightly above AAA level.

Although Hermann has taken some reps at 1B this spring, Trevor Plouffe will be the likely backup First Baseman in this Hermann-makes-it scenario. He played there in 2011 at Roc. and has played at 1B with the Twins in games last year, 2012, and 2011.

How about both? Since both Arcia and Florimon have options, they could both be signed without disrupting or endangering current players on the Twins roster bubble. Arcia can get called up as soon as Kubel shows it isn't working out, or even if Kubel does work out, when they inevitably trade Willingham.

The Twins already have an emergency catcher in Escobar. The Twins do need another RH bat, with or without Pinto, especially one that can PH, and spell Mauer or a corner OF for occasional days off. Not necessarily expecting great things from Colabello, but Hermann adds even less dimension to the already-anemic offense

Nick, it looks like you have a pretty good grasp on how this roster situation is going to play out. Just a week or so ago, there was lots of speculation that a potential trade was in the works for near the close of ST. Did you hear enough in your time in Ft. Myers to rate the current chances of such a deal going down by March 31?

I think what the previous poster said was "minor debacle". An organization tends to wish to jealously guard and control the "message" intended for public consumption- and a decision such as this does have a significant effect on the players and agents involved. Judging by how publicly upset that the Twins management has been in reaction to this development, I'd say the TD posters were not the only ones who cared.