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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    This feels a bit like Braves fans trying to wash their hands of it. While it's a possibility, I'm not seeing how a summer of tendinitis turns into a determination that he can never recover from it.
  2. jay
    This trade is still a solid win even if the "not solid whatsoever" guy never makes a single appearance in MLB (as is true of most "prospects" anyway), so I guess I don't see how it matters unless we're just debating the merits of our prospect evaluation.
  3. jay
    Rarely can and this has unfortunately happened elsewhere as well. This thread has been moderated already, but there's a case for more. Congrats, Rob!
  4. jay
    So his approach is now to swing at fewer pitches in the zone and the same number of pitches out of the zone? I'm not sure that passes the common sense test. His P/PA were identical to 2012. His BB% was in line with other career numbers while his K% jumped to a career high. If you want to link his injury to limiting what he can do and call that a different approach, I'd buy that, but would disagree otherwise. I pretty clearly stated I agree that he'll rebound, so no, I don't think he lost himself. The injury can quite possibly be tied to a lot of it, but it's hard to pinpoint exactly how much. You're a bit more optimistic on him that I am or any of the major projection models. You're completely entitled to that.
  5. jay
    If you would have told me this morning that the Twins could trade away Ryan Doumit AND his full salary (apparently, even the idea of that is enough for some people to be negative about it) for ANY top 15 prospect from ANY system (particularly with a non-roster guy)... I would have laughed at you and said 'no way'. This makes so much sense in so many ways.
  6. jay
    Twins fans everywhere should be rejoicing. Calling this a salary dump blatantly ignores so many other benefits. Gilmartin might not be the next David Price, but he was highly regarded not long ago at all -- that's a great get for a guy that was extremely marginal, redundant and cluttering roster space.
  7. jay
    The 2012-13 Offseason, the one that front office haters will forever hold dear. Behind the 2017 WS title, you'll hear a few Twins fans proclaiming to other internet posters how this could have been 4 years ago if only TR would have spent his budget or been wise enough to understand the economic implications. Signed, Post #111
  8. jay
    I was hoping Diamond could be a second LH option behind Duensing in the 'pen, but his numbers sure don't support that. OPS against vs LH batters is a staggering .859 vs .764 for righties. Diamond succeeds or fails with the groundball. 1.91 GB/FB and 52.7% GB vs righties compared to 1.27 GB/FB and only 42% GB vs lefties. Not good. I think he'll have to win the 5th starter spot or be squeezed out.
  9. jay
    Bingo, mike. Gibson has the highest ceiling of all these guys we're talking about, but he also has two options remaining. He probably wouldn't suffer from a little more AAA anyway based on his MLB performance last year.
  10. jay
    JP, I think you're off on a few key points there. The change in IFFB% is huge, that's potentially 50 points of BA/OBP right there. The swing rates worry me more. He swung at pitches out of the zone just the same, but swung at fewer pitches in the zone and missed more of them with career high SwStr% and career low Z-Contact%. Not good. As you can see in his pitch values, Josh normally kills fastballs. That wasn't anywhere near true in 2013. It would seem possible that he was cheating towards the fastball to compensate for his injury and then also getting worked on off-speed stuff as his FB% was a career-low and he saw more change-ups. We agree that he'll rebound (it'd be surprising if he isn't better to some degree), but my guess would put him closer to a .780 OPS than his .830 career average. I'll hope you're right though.
  11. jay
    Their quota was decreased due to the Twins' recent performance woes.
  12. jay
    I should add I think it will be Worley or Deduno with Diamond a distant third. Oh, and I'm okay with all of that.
  13. jay
    I think one of Deduno, Diamond, and Worley will be the 5th starter. I think Gibson and Albers start in the minors. I think the winner of those first three and Correia will have a shorter leash than we've seen the last few years.
  14. jay
    I'd say the comp is closer to Gibson than to May. Bummer the Twins couldn't pull this one off, but Oakland is well known for wanting pitching and we really don't need to give any of that up... especially for a 2-year lottery ticket.
  15. jay
    I was just about to start this thread. I looked through his numbers and use WAR because it's a simple stat to compare across his peers. Here are my thoughts: Averaged 4 WAR for the last 7 years. From 2007 to 2013, his ranking in WAR among SP each year was 28, 20, 29, 37, 15, 14, 20 for an average of 23. Pretty darn close to legit ace in my eyes, but not quite to that level of a Verlander, Felix, Kershaw, Price, etc. If you think he'll maintain that production for the next 5 years (which would vest to 6), you're looking at 20 WAR. If you think he'll slowly decline like some of the projection models, you're looking at more like 17 WAR. If he doesn't stay healthy like he has, you're looking at less than that. The cost you're looking at is $118.5M for 5 years or $131.5 to $136.5 for 6 years -- roughly $23M AAV for a cost per win of roughly $6M. The contract is close to fair market value looking at both cost per win and his peers. His AAV is right there with Cain, Greinke, and Sabathia. One could say the Twins should just go sign a guy like him as a FA for basically the same price and not give up any prospects, but supply and demand doesn't make it quite that easy. I'd give up some prospects for him, but I certainly wouldn't sell the farm. The original proposal there with Kepler/Berrios and maybe a few others feels about right. My gut says the Phillies will want a fair bit more than that.
  16. jay
    Take out Conley and make that last piece Stewart/Meyer, they just might think about it.
  17. jay
    The options for the last two spots in the rotation includes guys who are out of options (Deduno, Worley, Diamond), a top org prospect (Gibson), and several other guys (Albers, Johnson). Are you saying they'd bring in another guy to compete with them? Any examples of who you think that might be?
  18. jay
    The Twins have talked about trying to bring some new voices and personalities to the clubhouse. This sounds like a perfect opportunity. It sounds like the Marlins are looking for a 3B and Plouffe strikes me right away as a pretty solid match. Plouffe has one more year of control than LoMo, but is also a bit older. Both were highly regarded at some point. Swap those two, release/dump Doumit somehow, pick up a Young/Youkilis/Polanco for a year, and get ready for Sano. I'd love it.
  19. jay
    Bottom line is that projected WAR is an exercise in futility with prospects. Service time absolutely affects value and the concept of surplus value is the key, but your original analysis was woeful in these humble eyes. I can agree with your last paragraph here generally, but I wouldn't put this one in that category. Look at what 1 year of Morse (compare to Willingham) brought back last offseason (AJ Cole). Look at what Marshall (Perkins) brought back from the Reds (Travis Wood). I would add to your sentiment though that fans draw up far too many multi-player, blockbuster trades and specifically roster dumps like this. Regardless, we both agree this won't happen.
  20. jay
    Said no GM in baseball, ever. WAR from Oliver projections? Really? Stuff like this gives WAR a bad name. Kohl Stewart is projected for 0 WAR ever, but he's probably worth more than a utility infielder. Eddie Rosario's 8+ WAR isn't going to get you a sniff of Max Scherzer's contract year and lowly 4.6 WAR projection. The Twins would never dump all those guys after positive press with the FA signings, but it's not an unreasonable return. Maurer was their #7 last year and Taylor is #9 this offseason.
  21. jay
    Another factor at play here has been the Twins' focus on pitchers who throw strikes and don't walk batters. I'm sure you'd see walk rate along very similar trend lines. That is probably the biggest factor at play in limiting the number of pitches thrown.
  22. jay
    Mike, I think the difference there is that Garza would require a commitment of much more money and many more years. If you think 25-year old Anderson is as good as 30-year old Garza and can be healthy, there's certainly value in having him for 2 years at $20M as opposed to being locked in with Garza at 5 years and $80M or whatever he gets. Anderson can be qualified or later dealt. I think OAK can get more than just a salary dump.
  23. jay
    “Right from the get go, they were the most aggressive team. The overall fit – the ballpark, the city, pretty much everything about it – just seemed right.” Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/hughes-ready-prove-worth-twins-disaster-season-article-1.1538813#ixzz2meZqWUgQ
  24. jay
    Look at what the Rangers gave up for less than half a season of Garza. A solidly top 100 prospect (Olt), the new #11 and #12 prospects in a deep Cubs system, and a 25 year old starter with 100 sub-par MLB innings but a 3.23 MiLB ERA mark. It's not the trade deadline and Garza isn't coming off injury, but Rosario doesn't seem so far fetched.
  25. jay
    This would be easier if J.P. was a lefty or switch-hitter and could at least platoon some with Pinto. I wouldn't mind bringing him in, but if the Twins do that, it needs to be a conscious decision to bring in J.P. over someone else and drop either Herrmann or Fryer from the 40-man. I could go either way with that decision, but keeping Herrmann would be the call. Fryer and Herrmann actually have very similar MiLB offensive numbers: .267/.358/.404 (54 SB, 544 G) vs .258/.349/.372 (20 SB, 483 G) Herrmann has more or less played each level a year younger. He also provides the added value of being a lefty and positional flexibility.
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