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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Levi, I'll admit I was surprised when I looked at the numbers. We got a combined OPS of like .739 out of C/1B/DH last year. I plugged in some fairly conservative production and playing time projections for this year and ended up with .737 combined. There's some upside in that number, but I thought it would be higher before I started. On Dozier, if you mean a dip from his post-May numbers (like .790), I'd buy in more. His April-May was so bad though, he was only at .726 for the season. I can't see him much lower than that. If we hold steady at C, 1B, DH, 2B (and 3B?) that still leaves the inevitable improvement from the outfield production that was so atrocious. I do agree that a couple key injuries could ruin any chances of improvement in a hurry, but that's the case across most of MLB.
  2. jay
    C'mon, mike. We can all dream up unlikely scenarios to make something sound bad. Depth is a GOOD thing. I think it says a lot in the positive that the Twins have been able to get guys that have been competent major leaguers to come in on minor league deals. Even if Guerrier pitches in AAA, there are other fringe minor leaguers that can be let go if a prospect needs to be moved up. You seem to like your prospects in Minnesota yesterday just about no matter what though, so I'm not sure you'll ever be satisfied through that prism...
  3. jay
    Thanks for that, pretty darn funny. 2014 - "The Twins... You Already Know 'Em!"
  4. jay
    Quite tricky definitions... regress is to go backwards while regression is to go back to a previous state/place (the mean). savvyspy, wasn't trying to jump on you. Your usage of 'regresses' was correct as well, just slightly confusing given the discussion on regression to the mean.
  5. jay
    Everything I've seen has the Twins offense regressing, but that regression is towards the mean (aka... better). Regression describes returning towards the mean whether the starting point is bad or good. It doesn't describe going from bad to even worse, which is what I think you're saying? Help me understand which positions you think will put up worse production than last year? I'm not seeing many ways for the offense to be worse (barring significant injury).
  6. jay
    What about De Aza as a comp? Similar age/level progression, similar early struggles, similar BB/K profiles. Hicks probably has a hint more power.
  7. jay
    Good comp in many ways, but I think even that might be shooting high. Similar timeline, but Young hit 32 homers in his age-23 season as a rookie compared to what Hicks did last year. Hicks will never have as much power, but might post some better OBPs in time. If he ends up pushed to a corner due to Buxton, it's hard to see Hicks' bat profiling well in a corner (despite some great D, I'm assuming). I'd be happy to see like 2/3 of that WAR total...
  8. jay
    "Huh! Why not!" - my exact reaction I don't expect him to be a top set up guy, but he has shown the ability to put up results below his xFIP throughout his career and wasn't bad with the Dodgers while he was gone. If he's healthy, he provides good depth from the right side. Another nice, no-risk move.
  9. jay
    Likely so, but it still seems exorbitant. The overall success rate might be higher than a rook from MiLB, but there's been plenty of international imports that flopped... or at least that's what my gut tells me.
  10. jay
    I can certainly respect that view. BABIP was greatly misused when it was first bandied about by saying so-and-so was lucky or unlucky with a simple glimpse at the number. It goes much deeper than that and is dependent on the hitter's profile and tools. I do like some of the new pitcher metrics because, frankly, ERA is rotten. The definition of earned runs is convoluted and it can't measure the huge impact of defense outside of that other convoluted measure, errors. My mind was blown when I was introduced to advanced metrics probably 5 years ago. It's amazing how far the studies and measures have come even since then. At some point, a certain level of consolidation and common acceptance needs to occur. There's also lots of work left to do on assigning individual's value. With so many variables, it'll be quite the quest to truly master and measure it all.
  11. jay
    I think they actually just priced in a TJ somewhere during the 5 years and it's a pretty fair deal. Figure the elbow gives out mid-season at some point and he misses the rest of that season, part of the next, and rehabs the end of that next season. You're then talking basically 3.5/$51 and pretty darn close to his AAV at the 5/$75 range originally projected.
  12. jay
    No question that lineup would score some runs. Good bench options if Sano/Pinto/Hicks struggle. I'm concerned about defense, but it's not significantly different than what we're set to trot out today. If Buxton makes it up mid-summer as suggested there, that helps a ton in that area.
  13. jay
    After the Hicks debacle, that'd probably be alright.
  14. jay
    Unless you're a Cuban first baseman for the White Sox. I actually couldn't agree with you more. My posts were mostly intended to point out that while these projections are fun to talk about, there is so much unknown reality that will happen. You did a better job articulating that part. Regression is a very real thing, but variation is as well and those causes are extremely unpredictable in a world that we try so hard to predict.
  15. jay
    Great job of putting the debate about framing and the impact it has into real, concrete numbers with a huge sample size. I think Suzuki and Fryer could start the year on the MLB roster unless Pinto shows a lot in the spring. Keeping him in Rochester for a month or three wouldn't be the worst idea ever.
  16. jay
    He pins Jose Abreu, the Cuban 1B, to come in and have a monster season equivalent in value to our 1B, LF, and C combined (Mauer, Willingham, and Pinto/Suzuki) while helping them add 84 runs on offense over last year. He also projects their cobbled #4/#5 pitchers (the likes of Felipe Paulino, Eric Surkamp, etc) to be worth 4 wins... while no two Twins starters total that amount and the Sox shave off 21 runs on the pitching side compared to last year. They subtracted Peavy, Floyd, Santiago, Reed, and Crain from last year... but project to get better? I don't see it.
  17. jay
    The guaranteed option can't be viewed as anywhere near even likely. He's met those requirements exactly one time in his career (2011). At that point, the deal becomes 5/$51M or $55M with incentives worth up to $4M. With the deferred money, the real value is even less. Given he was originally projected to get more like 5/$75M or more (without considering these clauses), help me understand how all of that doesn't equate to injury red flags? What caused his market to drop so far?
  18. jay
    That whole regression to the mean thingie, remember? If you truly think the Twins are a 72 win team, I think you'd be hard pressed to show how even Drew and Morales/Cruz make them 8 wins better.
  19. jay
    I'd agree with Law on this one. The Pirates are right there as well along with the Cubs and Red Sox. He also mentions that the Astros have just a slight bit more depth than the Twins and says "the gap between the systems is quite small".
  20. jay
    Details on his contract from the AP: That's a LOT of injury protections. The only way I could see this deal happening is no other team was willing to go that long due to injury concerns and the Brewers needed extensive protections to do it. The AAV is a red flag as well.
  21. jay
    One more illustration... Teams with actual results in 2013 that were plus or minus 10 (or more) wins from his pre-season projections: STL (+14), PIT (+13), CLE (+13), BOS (+12), OAK (+12), ATL (+11), BAL (+10), CHC (-10), TOR (-12), CWS (-13), LAA (-13), SFG (-16), HOU (-21). Yes, you read that right. 13 teams were more than 10 wins off from their projection. Don't let this projection sap your hope for a... .500 season?
  22. jay
    Win differential from 2013 actual to this 2014 projection... Bottom 5: 1 (t) ATL, BOS, PIT -11 4 KC -9 5 (t) BAL, OAK -8 Top 5: 1 HOU +19 2 CWS +16 3 MIA +13 4 SEA +12 5 SF +9 7 (t) MIN, LAA +6 Notice any trends here? Teams that were bad or worse than expected last year get better (regress towards the mean). Teams that were good or better than expected last year get worse (regress towards the mean). This highlights what PseudoSABR was referring to. Not exactly an earth-shattering concept.
  23. jay
    I pointed out a number of issues at the n=1 level with the models that FG is using (ZIPS and Steamer) in another thread. Mauer and Willingham don't get much love and our positions that were bad last year generally regress in a positive direction towards some semblance of reasonable production. These models, for as smart as they are, aren't smart enough to apply individualized real-world factors. I'd peg us for 76-78 wins this year, personally.
  24. jay
    His spray chart shows every homer from 2012-2013 falling between the LF pole and left-center. That fits TF. A bad year in 2010 while injured with total of 6 HRs on the season doesn't disprove that.
  25. jay
    The numbers actually show so far that TF hasn't been bad to RH pull power. Guys like Willingham, Reynolds, Soriano. Dozier did well with it last year, turning hard on fastballs. Plouffe has flashed it at times. Oh, and that guy we dumped would fit well also, JJ Hardy. Cruz, though, is somewhat surprisingly more of a spray hitter. He uses center and right-center for a good amount of his power -- not a great fit for the confines of Target Field. That's not to say there isn't some dollar amount at which he'd make sense. With Willingham, Arcia, and Kubel on the roster though, I just don't see it happening.
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