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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    I think that's a bit of a jump given the offensive stats that are required to make positive contributions at 1B in the bigs, but I would also like to see him get a shot. At least start the year in AAA and hopefully get a chance to contribute or be a bench bat later in the year if he keeps it up.
  2. jay
    Excellent sarcasm. For the true non-believers, the total WAR accumulated by a team has had a correlation to actual wins between .83 and .89 over the last few seasons. It includes some variables that are not perfectly measured (ie - defense) and can't account for real-life variation caused by the context in which contributions are provided (ie - winning an abnormal amount of close games or "clutch" and "luck"). It may not be exactly perfect, but it is extremely useful.
  3. jay
    And at least then we'd still have some RH pop for the current lineup. I still think moving Revere is an odd concept and would rather seem Hammer move in a deal like this. I really like the third team idea. We've been hearing about lots of multi-team talks down at the GM mtgs, so maybe something like that is possible. Maybe the Mariners? Hammer to SEA, Soriano and Paxton to MIN, MIN B-prospect to CHC? It wouldn't look as much like we've given up on '13 and '14 while we get a good arm back. I'd probably give TR a gold star just for effort and doing something different if they pull it off.
  4. jay
    Likewise. I think some team will figure it out... especially as the spending caps on Int'l players and the draft start to limit options for teams to build. The luxury tax is a long ways away for most teams and MLB payroll is about the only thing left that isn't capped.
  5. jay
    Here's a crazy idea to throw out... we know the Twins have room to take on some salary for '13 and even '14. What if Revere went to a team that also wants to shed a contract and that got us back a better prospect? Angels are the first to mind with Vernon Wells. They'd have a nice outfield of Trout and Trumbo with Bourjos ® and Revere (L) and the salary savings would let them get another SP. We could easily ask for a pair of nice prospects in return. Crazy?
  6. jay
    Talk today from Joe C at the Strib about Mauer taking some 3B next year. Any objections to a partial platoon where Mauer faces some righties from 3B? If Doumit takes the dish, that gets up to 7 or 8 lefties in the lineup against righties (depending on how the Span/Revere and MI pan out).
  7. jay
    Yes. #freeslama
  8. jay
    And the Twins Daily masses rejoiced in glee.
  9. jay
    That's what they said about the Wild until not all too long ago... Let us dream!
  10. jay
    Nice job putting a plan together. A few thoughts... - Even if we pay down Morneau's salary to $7M, the surplus value for his one remaining year just isn't enough to bring back a top young pitcher... let alone a good young pitcher. I think we could hope for a decent AA prospect. - Agree with Thrylos' comment that Span has more value and would be more likely to go. Being cost controlled for up to three more years, he'd be more likely in my eyes to bring back a decent arbitration-eligible SP. - Agree in full on Scotty Bake Bake. - I'd almost rather see the Twins go all out on an SP. It's clearly the biggest organizational need and the payroll space is there to do it. Marcum had a few good years and even fits the Twins profile of slow-throwing (87mph FB), spot-hitting, walk-allergic... but I'm not sure that's what many of us want right now.
  11. jay
    Seems to be against the grain here, but I don't mind the college RPs. I was confused by the picks at first, but I'm hoping the Twins might be on to something. They always say you can't teach velocity and it's clear that the system needed an infusion of it. If even one of those guys can successfully convert to SP, not many orgs can say they found a high-velo SP beyond the first round or two. Worst case, college RPs do seem to have a higher likelihood of making it to the bigs in a relief role and I'll take MLB talent where ever we can find it at this point.
  12. jay
    I'd agree more on the velocity part if he were right-handed, but lefties have shown an ability to get by and make positive contributions at the MLB level with lower velocity. His good control and speed variation between fastball/curveball matches that same profile. I don't think they should promote him at this point, but definitely agree that the break would have been a good time to move up a college pitcher with his results and profile.
  13. jay

    Player Comparison

    jay commented on Matt VS's blog entry in Blog Matt VS

    I would agree with glunn. There isn't a lot of organizational depth at 1B and the Twins would be taking on a lot of risk to go into 2013 with only one of them. If Parmelee continues to put up numbers and the Twins aren't in contention next year, then moving Morneau before the trade deadline would make the most sense to me.
  14. jay
    Agree on the comp part, but I think the main difference is that Bourn only had one year of control left (this year) at ~$7M. Span has next year at ~$5M, plus '14 and the option on '15. That extra year (likely two) of control at reasonable salaries is crucial and gives Span a little more trade value in my eyes.
  15. jay
    Agree than Bourn might comp a little better on the surface. However, I think the main difference here is that Bourn only had one year of control left (this year) at ~$7M. Span has next year at ~$5M, plus '14 and the option for '15. So, any team dealing for him is getting at least an extra year and likely 2. This alone gives Span more trade value in my eyes.
  16. jay
    Jeff, check this out... http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/xbabip-spreadsheet/. It can be used to calculate what one would expect a player's BABIP to be based on their batted ball profile (% line drives, % fly balls, etc). BABIP - xBABIP would give you a better indication of a player's "luck" than just a surface level assessment based on their current BABIP.
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