jay

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1405204 http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&teamid=0&season=2013

You're capitalizing on the one outlier and worst season of his career in 2011 by using 3 seasons. You'll say that's relevant because they are talking about a 3 year contract, but it's still an arbitrary cutoff that captures his one and only negative WAR season. In a different light, I could tell you he's averaged 2.2 WAR every season for the last decade.

TF has indeed turned out to be pretty neutral overall despite the early concerns. LHB HR factor has been relatively consistent. BP doesn't give you 2013 data without an account, but here's 2010-2012: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1384402 [TABLE=width: 1032] YEAR TEAM SIDE Home PA Away PA Home HR Away HR FB Factor GB Factor LD Factor PU Factor 1b Factor 2b Factor 3b Factor HR Factor Runs Factor [TD=align: right]2012[/TD] MIN RHB[TD=align: right]3220[/TD] [TD=align: right]3133[/TD] [TD=align: right]106[/TD] [TD=align: right]90[/TD] [TD=align: right]103[/TD] [TD=align: right]102[/TD] [TD=align: right]95[/TD] [TD=align: right]90[/TD] [TD=align: right]101[/TD] [TD=align: right]99[/TD] [TD=align: right]127[/TD] [TD=align: right]107[/TD] [TD=align: right]105[/TD] [TD=align: right]2012[/TD] MIN LHB[TD=align: right]3023[/TD] [TD=align: right]3047[/TD] [TD=align: right]61[/TD] [TD=align: right]72[/TD] [TD=align: right]101[/TD] [TD=align: right]100[/TD] [TD=align: right]97[/TD] [TD=align: right]104[/TD] [TD=align: right]101[/TD] [TD=align: right]99[/TD] [TD=align: right]155[/TD] [TD=align: right]93[/TD] [TD=align: right]98[/TD] [TD=align: right]2011[/TD] MIN RHB[TD=align: right]3265[/TD] [TD=align: right]3213[/TD] [TD=align: right]83[/TD] [TD=align: right]78[/TD] [TD=align: right]107[/TD] [TD=align: right]101[/TD] [TD=align: right]93[/TD] [TD=align: right]100[/TD] [TD=align: right]105[/TD] [TD=align: right]98[/TD] [TD=align: right]103[/TD] [TD=align: right]102[/TD] [TD=align: right]100[/TD] [TD=align: right]2011[/TD] MIN LHB[TD=align: right]2868[/TD] [TD=align: right]2884[/TD] [TD=align: right]43[/TD] [TD=align: right]60[/TD] [TD=align: right]106[/TD] [TD=align: right]101[/TD] [TD=align: right]89[/TD] [TD=align: right]94[/TD] [TD=align: right]100[/TD] [TD=align: right]94[/TD] [TD=align: right]94[/TD] [TD=align: right]86[/TD] [TD=align: right]97[/TD] [TD=align: right]2010[/TD] MIN RHB[TD=align: right]3143[/TD] [TD=align: right]3282[/TD] [TD=align: right]63[/TD] [TD=align: right]98[/TD] [TD=align: right]110[/TD] [TD=align: right]104[/TD] [TD=align: right]87[/TD] [TD=align: right]99[/TD] [TD=align: right]101[/TD] [TD=align: right]106[/TD] [TD=align: right]99[/TD] [TD=align: right]84[/TD] [TD=align: right]96[/TD] [TD=align: right]2010[/TD] MIN LHB[TD=align: right]2987[/TD] [TD=align: right]2951[/TD] [TD=align: right]53[/TD] [TD=align: right]83[/TD] [TD=align: right]104[/TD] [TD=align: right]101[/TD] [TD=align: right]91[/TD] [TD=align: right]98[/TD] [TD=align: right]103[/TD] [TD=align: right]105[/TD] [TD=align: right]116[/TD] [TD=align: right]82[/TD] [TD=align: right]98[/TD] [/TABLE]

Agree -- 100%! 23 of his 32 HRs in 2013 were vs LH batters. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=978&position=P&season=2013 To account for home and away, we can look at the park factors for HRs as a LH hitter on the Twins vs the Reds: 89 vs 110. Reds were 5th highest, Twins were 3rd lowest. Even RH shows a difference: 97 vs 114. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&season=2013&teamid=0 You could reasonably assume Arroyo would have given up 5-7 fewer HRs as a Twin. I'm sure the Twins have noticed this. It also makes me like the idea of Phil Hughes for the same reason -- right-handed flyball pitchers. They seem to have been targeting groundball pitchers even as recently as last offseason, but their playing environments say they should tweak that focus and maybe they've noticed that.

I'd maybe consider 350 IP over 2 seasons for the third year to vest. Only 50 pitchers accomplished that over 2012-2013. Of that group, only 13 of them had ERAs over 4, but their average xFIP was below 4. I'd be fine with a third year if he hung with that crowd. Interesting observation: that list of 13 includes 6 guys that are or were set to become FAs this offseason: Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Lincecum, Jimenez, Saunders, and Volquez.

An IP requirement of some type is certainly reasonable, but 200+ each year is a lot to ask and I'm not sure the Twins could get under 4 ERA written in with that type of option either. Some level of decent productivity is assumed if the guy hits an IP mark that high. I really like the vesting option idea and would be fine with a third year on those terms.

First Steamer is your source to make your point and now it is worthless? Either way, I don't even disagree with the sentiment in any of your points. When you look at the exact number of innings pitched by each starter in 2013 (using a high-end 5.80 for Albers since I couldn't find a projection for him), ZIPS projected a pretty darn close 5.15 vs the 5.26 actual. I guess my only point would be that going in the season, I was expecting Diamond, Worley, Pelfrey, Deduno, and Correia with Gibson ready to step in for the weakest performer around June and some decent replacement level options beyond that if necessary. You could have projected that for around 4.90. Admittedly, before I ran the numbers just now, I would have thought the projection would be closer to 4.60 and bottom 5 in MLB than still MLB-worst. Those are both bad, but not quite the 5.26 bad that we had the joy of watching. All of those numbers do represent slight improvements over the 5.40 from 2012, but nothing we should be happy about in the least. So, again, I still think we're saying the same thing and we're really splitting hairs here in any case. I guess we can agree to disagree on just what shade of really bad they were projected to be. I'll concede.

Thanks for asking. I'm in the decades fan camp as well. That still doesn't make me think it is necessary to ridicule any and every move the team makes just because it wasn't signing [insert your favorite FA here]. You're more than entitled to be bearish on our prospects for success (while claiming to be an optimist). Personally, I'll never understand the joy in being a cynical, defeatist fan.

I think you guys are saying the same thing. No one here has said they were going to be good. We all thought they were going to be bad, but I think they were even worse than some of us were expecting -- including Steamer, as you've highlighted here.

Can't say I agree with that part. Most everyone thought the rotation would be bad, but looking at the specific examples of individuals gives you a better picture of what happened.

His point seems pretty clear. 2013 was bad, but no one that I know predicted it was going to be *that* bad with Correia, of all people, as the only guy to outperform expectations.

Totally unrelated, but how fun would it be to see random, anonymous profiles of what TD posters do in real life? Less anonymous, but even more fun, trying to guess which is which from a list of five.

Preach it, brother. I'd hope the fellow super fans here realize the likelihood that the only FA pitcher(s) we'll get is the one we significantly outbid 29 other GMs for and it's going to look like an overpay.

Sounds like many people already have figured out the entire off-season plan as of November 21st. That's impressive. I know I haven't. Who predicted trading 2 CFs in the next 15 days at this point last year?

So, which is it... a.) you guys think the only players ever added to the organization should be the very best FAs, or... b.) you're just rolling with easy targets that have nothing to do with whether or not they'll sign any decent FAs this year? My assumption is leaning towards b.) and I don't quite get it outside of endless snark for the sake of it.

But, but, but... JOE BENSON. Fire Ryan now! Seriously, I couldn't agree more.

You sure do brutalize these Italian names. Saltalamacchia and even the easy one, Colabello. At least I now know it extends to the Polish as well...

Don't let it bother you too much, it's just a matter of timing (although one could argue that shouldn't even really matter with these two).

Ahh -- thanks. I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins have to be the team willing to do 3 in order to get him (or seriously outbid for 2). Wouldn't love it, but such is your lot when your team stinks.

Arroyo talked about the Twins, Giants, Angels, Dodgers, and Phillies as suitors last night in an interview on MLB Radio. Supposedly, he also talked about his contract expectations -- anyone hear that part?

Thanks, John. The piece that stands out to me is the BABIP and xBABIP talk. One of the first things I noticed about watching Oswaldo is that he goes up to the plate looking to hit the ball hard. It would make sense that hitting the ball harder than other players would lead to a higher than average BABIP. I really wish we had access to something like batted ball speed as it would intuitivitely seem directly related to your success on any type of batted ball. You'd think with that data we could put together a much better 'xBABIP' and finally actually statistically identify who has been "hitting the ball hard at guys" vs just getting out due to weak contact.

The Twins were frustrated by his over-reliance on trying to blow his FB past people and at least it looks like he's changed that. With the Twins, he was throwing his 4-seamer about 63% of the time and the slider about 17%. He's around the same total percentage with the FB last year, but fangraphs says he added a 2-seamer to the mix around 2010. His use rates last year were 45% with the 4-seam, 19% 2-seam, 24% slider. He'll mix in a few curveballs, but has thrown his change-up (his worse pitch according to pitch values) less and less. I was skeptical at first, but color me intrigued after looking into it more. Oh, and John, I'm sure they finally got around to reading through all of the threads on TD and realized it was time to change...

That's a pretty nice false dichotomy. This idea that the Twins don't promote guys is silly. Look at Buxton, look at Arcia, look at Mauer. Also, look at what Wacha and Verlander did in their short time in the minors. None of our guys have done that. Those teams don't have some set perogative that any pitcher they draft will be in the majors the next year. It is very much the exception to every team's rule.

Agree in full with the rotation building sentiment. Here's another way to look at it: If someone were to tell you a month ago, a year ago, pretty much any time period ago, that the Twins were going to be heavily targeting free agent SPs that are in the consensus top-10 available, would anyone have done a single thing except jump for joy?

I keep seeing that line of thought. Both here and with Arroyo. I don't get it. First, it's "sign a pitcher!"... and now it's "that guy isn't good enough!". I'll take any significant signing and be happy with it. If anything, we've seen how much of a crapshoot this free agency game is. Further, I'd say there's no ace out there to be signed and I only count 4 guys that would even qualify as a potential target better than Nolasco -- Tanaka, Santana, Jimenez, Kazmir. Maybe Johnson if you're looking at upside. With 30 teams out there, those are pretty slim odds... especially given the Twins non-contender status.