Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jay

Provisional Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,544

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Mike, I think you're trying to extrapolate a little too far here. Interpretations of what was said by various sources have been called into question (ie - using the word "money" in a sentence). They could have been feigning their interest, but there isn't really anything to interpret here. The interpretation is in the second point you make and that's the part we don't actually know... how serious they were (if at all) about signing him.
  2. jay
    Dodgers and D'backs will play in Australia to start the season. Given the Twins' domination of the Australian player market, I wish they'd been chosen. It'd be nice to continue increasing the Twins' name recognition there, but good for MLB overall.
  3. jay
    You're absolutely right about the history aspect. As mentioned in the previous post, I (and, I believe, you) don't actually think the payroll will be ~$50m next year. Perhaps some will be spent on a replacement for Morneau. Given that would be likely an improvement, it isn't quite fair to not count that signing, as you suggest. The only way payroll goes up is FA, trade, or int'l. So, despite history, it almost has to happen?
  4. jay
    TR can't really let payroll sit at $50M next year, can he? The only way it'll hit 60-70, preferably more like 80-90+ is some major acquisitions through trade, free agency, or the int'l market. It seems like no one here really wanted this guy, yet the opportunity to fuss is too easy to pass up? We know the Twins were in the hunt on this guy, so I don't understand posts about how they are passing up this market. On sheer average alone, we wouldn't sign >96% of the free agents... yet every single one (including one that no one admits to really wanting to sign) is another spasm of vitriol? Some points here are valid and I can fully understand criticism where due. Heck, you'll see me upset when Phil Hughes goes elsewhere (unless other moves preempt it), but it's exactly this kind of stuff that gets rational people painted into a corner as "front-office defenders".
  5. jay
    It's not really possible to make an argument that the Twins couldn't spend the money. However, I don't personally think this would be the best way to spend it. We know TR is exceptionally risk adverse to start with, so I find it a bit surprising they were in on this guy down to the last 2 clubs and, even though they didn't sign him, I'd still call it a positive sign based on all the reports saying he was willing to open the bank. This 'prospect' hasn't played in 2 years, won't stick at SS, and is older than Chris Parmelee by well over a full year. Looking at recent FA deals in the same price range, I'd take 3 years of Cuddyer or Aramis Ramirez over signing this guy in a heartbeat.
  6. jay
    This young man generated 17 pages of content here upon being claimed off waiver assignment by the Rangers earlier this year. Similarly, he was recently designated for assignment by the Rangers. This time, he did not get claimed and has been assigned outright to AAA. The Twins could have had him back free of charge for a 40-man roster spot.
  7. jay
    Hughes has been relatively similar in performance to Jeremy Guthrie. Less track record, but will hit the market at a much younger age (27 vs 33). Guthrie got 3/$25 last offseason. I'd be more than okay with seeing the Twins go 3/$30 or 4/$36.
  8. jay
    I think you could throw out his 2011 as he was injured (Phil Hughes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) and get that number down a little further. I'm splitting hairs a bit, but I'd maybe call it 3.80. I'd be happy to see that in the Twins rotation. That's a solid #3 on a playoff team and the Twins' ace with our current squad.
  9. jay
    If we assume all 30 of those HRs would be doubles instead, they are worth .825 runs less a piece and Hughes would have given up 25 fewer runs over the last 5 years. He's pitched 665 innings since 2009 and allowed 323 runs for an ERA of 4.37. So, while 25 fewer runs is a 4.03 ERA, it would be even lower if we assumed some of those to be caught as outs instead of doubles. I see a lot to like.
  10. jay
    Mmmmmmm, salivation.
  11. jay
    Without narrowing the sample size down that far, there's plenty of evidence to make it more than reasonable to assume Hughes would give up fewer homers to RF if pitching in TF. Park factors provide easy numbers (118 in NY vs 90 in MN). Guts! | FanGraphs Baseball Using this with the Target Field overlay provides an easy visual. ESPN Home Run Tracker :: Player and Field Detail We also know the walls are both farther and higher in TF and the wind commonly comes in from right field.
  12. jay
    I was buying in until you tried telling us about HanRam, Ethier, Crawford, Fielder, Sabathia, etc. Mauer and Perkins would fetch as much as Sabathia and Granderson and the Yanks are strapped beyond that. If it's about assets to improve the future of your club, wouldn't the top ranked minor league system provide plenty of assets whereby to do that?
  13. jay

    Syria

    jay replied to Shane Wahl's topic in The Sports Bar

    I have to agree. As a veteran of all-expenses paid year-long staycations to both Iraq and Afghanistan, I can say my very own idealistic perspectives have changed as others here have aptly described. It remains an immense honor to serve, but that should in no way relate to our readiness to expend military force. We justify large military budgets by framing it as a deterrent. I'm inclinded to believe (and hope) that will be the outcome of this situation: a lot of posturing. It pains me to my core that we couldn't learn the lessons from our very own past to spare the loss of so many brave American lives over the last 10 years. I can only pray we stop in our tracks on the currently similar path.
  14. jay
    We know Target Field favors RH pull hitters. If Lincecum is giving up his homers to RH pull hitters, he sure doesn't sound like a very good fit... I have a hard time believing that any team (especially the Twins) will be able to sign Ervin away from the Royals without a significant overpay. Some will argue that doesn't matter given our payroll situation. I'd rather remember the old Johan than this Johan. His odds of being even effective again are exceptionally low. I'd like to see someone with at least a little more certainty. If he's a third acquisition, it could make some sense. Phil Hughes looks like the best option in this group to me.
  15. jay
    The mobility scores and the category itself don't make sense to me. Teams like the Dodgers, Tigers, and Yankees (all saddled with huge contracts) all have scores above 20. In my mind, it should be 'flexibility' like ashburyjohn spoke to above. Thankfully, it's only 1/11th of the total score. At the end of the day, I think the exercise highlights how far we have to go in a number of areas that can be influenced.
  16. jay
    The good news is they're unanimous in placing the minors talent as MLB-leading with a 30 score. We can quibble about the score for majors talent, but it's close. Here are the scores I would give: Majors - 5 I'd call the Astros, Cubs, and White Sox worse with a toss-up between the Padres, Phillies, Brewers, Mariners, and Twins for the next few slots. Strengths in the bullpen, Joe Mauer, and a few young players keep the Twins off the bottom. Minors - 30 The dynamic duo of Buxton and Sano are complemented by a deep system. Finances - 18 With the revenues from Target Field, the Twins should be at least capable of commonly maintaining a payroll in the mid to upper half of MLB. Management - 12 Terry Ryan and crew are well respected within the industry for their scouting prowess. The need remains to adapt to the advances in the industry and accept more risk at times. Gardy is respected as a veteran coach, but similarly needs to advance his management style. The ownership, front office, and management have been incredibily stable with plenty of tenure across the organization. Mobility - 18 Outside of Joe Mauer's contract (who is still in his prime and isn't going anywhere), the Twins have no large, not to mention immovable, contracts. Issues reside around how many players would be desireable to other teams, but the Twins are in a flexible position. Adapted to the scale of 100 used by ESPN, this would result in a score of 55.5 which would have been good for 10th. ((5+30)+(18+12)*(2/3)+(18)*(1/3))*(100/110) Anyone else? Thoughts?
  17. jay
    MLB Talent: Worst - Astros (22 overall) t-3rd - Marlins (28 overall) t-3rd - White Sox (29 overall) 4th - Brewers 5th - Twins 6th - Cubs (and the only other team in bottom 10 ranked above 20 overall) They are all bad. I can see your argument with Stanton/Fernandez, but that's really about all they have. I'd place the other 5 here below the Twins personally.
  18. jay
    That's both true and fair.
  19. jay
    For as much as TR and Gardy are regarded as 'old school', I'm a bit surprised by the 15 score for management. They do mention stability in the metrics though and I don't know a team that has been more stable than the Twins... much to the chagrin of some.
  20. jay
    I think that's true to an extent, but there's a distinct difference between "How much money do they have to spend?" and "How much money do they spend?" I'd like to believe TF was intended to get us better off than the 20th highest payroll ad infinitum.
  21. jay
    I would as well. I would also argue that the Twins should be higher than 10 points (ie - 20th highest payroll). They should have the ability to maintain a payroll closer to 10-15th (15-20 points).
  22. jay
    Great in theory, but not going to happen. The commissioner's office has to approve any trade with a transfer of more than $1M. The rule was specifically designed to prevent cases like this with a franchise selling their players for enrichment.
  23. jay
    The rest of the scores and write-ups are behind the Insider paywall, but here's the order of the team rankings: 1 Cardinals 2 Red Sox 3 Rangers 4 Dodgers 5 Rays 6 Cubs 7 Pirates 8 Tigers 9 Braves 10 Orioles 11 Yankees 12 Athletics 13 Mets 14 Nationals 15 Twins 16 Diamondbacks 17 Reds 18 Royals 19 Indians 20 Padres 21 Mariners 22 Astros 23 Giants 24 Jays 25 Phillies 26 Angels 27 Rockies 28 Marlins 29 White Sox 30 Brewers Who's too high, who's too low?
  24. jay
    I'd agree with you here. Mobility is the least weight of the 5 factors and even moving them up to a score of 20 wouldn't be enough to catch the Mets at 13. We're tied with the Nationals at 49.7 points.
  25. jay
    Today, ESPN's MLB team of Bowden, Law, and Olney released an updated 'Future Power Ranking' based off 5 factors: [TABLE] [TR=class: last] MAJORS (full weight): Quality of current big league roster [/TR] [TR=class: last] MINORS (full weight): Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system [/TR] [TR=class: last] FINANCE (2/3 weight): How much money do they have to spend? [/TR] [TR=class: last] MANAGEMENT (2/3 weight): Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff [/TR] [TR=class: last] MOBILITY (1/3 weight): Do they have a lot of young, cheap players, or old, immovable guys [/TR] [/TABLE] It places the Twins at 15th with exceptionally strong scores for the minors, mid-range for finance, mgmt, and mobility, and a poor score for MLB talent. How accurate do you think this is?
×
×
  • Create New...