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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Guys, 3 on 1 isn't fair! Pre-TF, it's easy to understand. The payroll trajectory was right the first couple years of TF, but it's certainly hard to understand the last 2 years. Those years did coincide with a clear reversal in performance from the previous few years. I wish the payroll was higher both this year and last, and it's hard to clearly explain why it's not because we don't have full access to the internal decision making and information. Conversely, it's very easy to argue that more money should have been spent on x and y. However, we truly don't have enough information to say what will happen when this team shows even flashes of being on an upswing. I certainly expect and hope that a few, select FA (six year or Int'l) acquisitions will be a part of that at a level higher than our previous forays into FA.
  2. jay
    Painfully true validation that these sources we trump up as the god-given truth are generally quite short of that.
  3. jay
    So it's a better sourced argument to clearly make assumptions of things that aren't said? Meanwhile, it has been just as (or more) clearly said that the prospect return is poor. My point is that both sides are using minimal information and making assumptions... either could be right, but let's not try to claim one side is "better sourced" as some have been.
  4. jay
    There's just as many articles out there about a poor prospect return for Justin as well... but those seem to get conveniently ignored by some because other articles have the word "money" in there somewhere.
  5. jay
    Exactly my point. Nowhere do they say that TR won't do it, just that it's a "hold up". Of course it's a hold up... not one single team wanted him at full price. Negotiating over money becomes a requirement, not an immediate indictment on TR.
  6. jay
    As for this Guerrero guy, I can't see him as an MLB SS. As someone else noted, very stiff in the torso and hips while fielding. The range doesn't look impressive and you just don't see those rigid motions out of an MLB SS. The swing looks okay, but hard to judge off a youtube BP clip. For the money, I'd much rather see Abreu or Tanaka.
  7. jay
    mike, I keep seeing that $25MM brought up. Given that every team gets it, the effect on the talent you can get is 0%. Maybe it means the gross expenditures for every team in MLB should go higher, but it doesn't mean each team will be able to go sign a Greinke... there aren't 30 of them out there.
  8. jay
    This may very well be an understated concern. The vast majority of fans don't get to the levels of engagement that we do here. The casual fan would very well be displeased that the big Canadian got dumped for some low-level scrub. This seems to be a recurring counterpoint lately across multiple threads. "But they used the word money somewhere in that article, so that absolutely has to mean TR won't entertain the idea of covering Morneau's salary because he's so cheap!" These insights are warping context and making assumptions just as much as anyone else.
  9. jay
    I'll drop a third on Abreu. SP is more of a priority, but it'd be great to see either him or Kendry Morales. Not in on Johan. What happened to Gibson?
  10. jay
    Here's a new article about Posey and the possibility of position change. Yes, 3B is mentioned. Y! SPORTS
  11. jay
    It seems like you completely ignored the options. You'd give up more because he's due far less salary. Your intent for Morneau was never dependent on his contributions in August, but rather throughout the playoffs. Therefore, August didn't really matter nor provide value that you cared about, but he's now due $2M less. Whether the Twins were going to cover some of that salary at any time isn't really the point at all because you'd assume the Twins willingness to do that hasn't changed. If the Twins were going to cover $2M on Aug 1, you'd owe Justin $2M and give up a prospect. On Aug 31, if the Twins cover that same $2M, he's now due $0 from the acquiring team... so it seems pretty reasonable that you'd give up a better prospect since you don't have to pay that $2M.
  12. jay
    Anyone trying to argue that offensive contributions don't vary significantly across the positions is simply ignoring indisputable, hard numbers. Those variations result in expected levels of offensive contribution at each of the positions. A run counts the same on the scoreboard, but it's an awful lot harder to find a catcher (or MI) that can help you score runs than it is a first baseman (or corner OF). That the concept of 'replacement level' is a tenet of sabermetrics is apparently enough for some folks to try to discredit and invalidate it... and that's ridiculous, particularly on a forum of what I'd like to consider as no less than moderately knowledgeable baseball fans.
  13. jay
    One more important one to throw out there and get your take on... every day Morneau is in a Twins uniform, he's owed less money. If you're the GM on a pretty certain playoff team, you wouldn't really care about getting his August production. If he fits your needs, getting him at the end of August just saved you $2M. If your first option on Aug 1 is $4M and a C prospect, you'd quite possibly consider $2M and a C+ prospect on Aug 31 to be a better deal.
  14. jay
    All other variables held the same, that'd be true. However, that's simply not the case. The time frame of control may be smaller but, for one, the pool of available talent is also much smaller now due to waivers. I could also come up with plenty of examples and/or reasons why a team might give up just as much or more than they would have at the July 31 deadline. Lack of production, injury, changes in the standings, and more could all lead to a clearer picture of what a team needs. We might not have a perfect example to fit Morneau today, but let's not act like it isn't possible.
  15. jay
    Of course. I don't think anyone here has said otherwise. It just depends on how broadly you define "player" and "use".
  16. jay
    I think control matters more early in the year and off-season. If you were a playoff team 30 days ago and you're still one today, your purpose for Morneau remains the same. You may in fact just as well be more determined to acquire talent now than you were before. I'm starting to come around on making the move... if only to support the points I've been making about TR's strength of acquiring skill in the low minors.
  17. jay
    I can understand the desire for more info. If I have to call it opinion with some examples instead of statistically proven truth, so be it. Personally, I think TR is an excellent evaluator (specfically low minors), a strong negotiator, and, for some reason, knows how to build a cheap but effective bullpen. I think he's weak in embracing statistical evaluation, identifying/acquiring top-end pitching talent, and free agent acquisition. I could probably sum up those three weaknesses as risk-averse. What are some of the things you speak of that he does well and not well?
  18. jay
    Bottom line, I don't disagree with your point and I've been saying all along here that the line of thought needs to advance throughout the org. However, you're also right that we haven't seen many of these types of deals yet since TR re-took the helm. We don't know how relevant his previous success is today given that the landscape may have changed, but at the same time, we simply don't have evidence to suggest that he can't still get value in trade transactions...
  19. jay
    I could also make counterpoints that would require you to complete hours of research to support your point, but that wouldn't be very fair for either of us to do... now would it?
  20. jay
    I'd wager that it compares extremely well. It seems pretty intuitive that acquiring 9 future MLBers from A-ball in that time frame is impressive, but I'd welcome evidence to the contrary.
  21. jay
    TR acquired the following players that were in A ball at the time: Francisco Liriano (H-A), Alexi Casilla (H-A), Kyle Lohse (H-A), Johan Santana (A), Lew Ford (A), Jason Bartlett (H-A), Cristian Guzman (H-A), Joe Mays (H-A), David Ortiz (A). Not all were super studs, but far more MLBers than the average that make it from A. I would downright fear trading a guy in A-ball to Terry Ryan as a fellow GM.
  22. jay
    Beautifully said. I'd hope for the same things, but unfortunately, I believe many of us think the Twins will end up in that latter camp.
  23. jay
    Excellent scouting complemented by in-depth statistical analysis to identify additional focal points? Too peppery! When the statistical revolution came around, the tone was a little too strong against the old school scouting approach. I think that has tamed down as we're seeing exemplified here. I continue to hope that those against the stats approach can take the time to understand it and see value.
  24. jay
    Exactly. If you need an example of a guy who would make deals to make deals and how that turns out, you don't have to look any further than ol' Billy Smith. I agree with everything you said except this. Right or wrong, I do think the FO values keeping him here to an extent. I agree with your first point, but I just haven't seen enough to convince me of the second part. I do believe the Twins are asking for a bit more (but not a ton more) than a Sulbaran type if they're covering the $3M. If some team is desperate enough, great. If not, stick to your horses and play it out.
  25. jay
    Given how well TR has snagged lower minors talent that turned into MLB talent, it'd be hard to fault him on this one. I'd certainly hope the Twins develop "player models" for what they are looking for and can use advanced stats to identify when a player might provide more value to their team than others based on team philosophy.
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