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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    I appreciate the effort to restore my faith. I can give Gardy credit for things like this. However, to many of Nick's points about the mythical value of a proven closer, plate discipline, etc., you can only pin a portion of that on the front office providing the right skill sets while a majority of it is on the coaching staff and how they use/teach their players. For example the front office pieced together what turned out to be an effective bullpen, yet I still despise seeing less than our best pitcher(s) in the highest leverage situations.
  2. jay
    Front office or not, the dugout is certainly one place where the Twins could use a few philosophical shifts. Gardy gets respect in the league, but it's painful to watch him get outmanaged by some of the forward thinkers.
  3. jay
    Does that include the Twins covering the $3M? So, you think they can pay the $3M and get a Sulbaran Low-A decent arm-type in return?
  4. jay
    Maybe so and neither are okay, but I'm sensing a pretty consistent trend in posts from that user today... and more use of the ignore function might be a better approach. Just my take.
  5. jay
    I thought it was a joke in the other thread, but now I'm not so sure. Sabermetrics?
  6. jay
    I did chuckle at that, but you should probably remove the next sentence of your post. What is a realistic return for the guys that are heavily advocating the move? Pay all of the salary and get xx? Pay some and get xx? I'd be curious to hear some examples.
  7. jay
    Sunk costs are generally past tense. They get you in trouble when you can't detach yourself from it because you've already spent $xx on it -- ie the signing bonus of a top pick . Morneau's salary is a prospective cost in that it's committed... only whatever part of it they'd have to cover for a team to take him with no return at all is sunk. I'm a 100% Myers-Briggs 'T', but I still can see some soft side benefits of not dumping him. I wouldn't mind the playing time for a Colabello/Parmelee platoon, but waivers has already proven they're going to pay something for that. In reality... I'm fine with whichever direction happens here, but I'm not going to play up either side of it into some sort of a huge affair. I'll save that energy for SPs in the offseason.
  8. jay
    Exactly. I don't know why the expectation should be to pay out the $3M, but only get a marginal return. I fully understand the talent acquisition concerns, but is it worth $3M to get a Pedro Hernandez type? These aren't franchise changing moves we're talking about. Also, what message does a deal like that send to other players that you're looking to sign in the future? Most players sign a contract with hopes of never getting traded. They understand it happens, but moves for the sake of moves might not exactly benefit a club in the long run. If anything, this would seem to prove they are willing to make the move if something of significance is offered...
  9. jay
    Oh yeaaah, dontcha know, that pepper there is spicy! I don't know exactly where the Twins fall on the stat-using spectrum, but it would seem foolish not to invest heavily in any sort evaluation method. The cost of hiring a whole team of professional statisticians would be maybe, what? A million? Given the immense pay disparities between the fields of stats and professional baseball, it sure doesn't take much to make that back in MLB payroll or on-field contributions...
  10. jay
    There's a few things out there, but Win Probability Added (WPA) gets pretty close to what you're talking about and weights more to late inning "clutchness". It's basically a sum of the probability that a batter added or subtracted towards winning a game over the course of the season. An example: if you hit a double in the bottom of the 9th with guys on to take the lead, you would get a big positive mark. Leave them stranded with a strikeout and you'd get a negative mark. Add up all the ABs over the season and you get your WPA. Major League Leaderboards » 2013 » Batters » Win Probability Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball
  11. jay
    Because the other catcher can't catch 88 games? I'd prefer closer to 100 for Mauer behind the plate, but I still don't think 74 justifies a third catcher.
  12. jay
    Rodon isn't likely, but you might catch me dreaming about his teammate (Trea Turner) plenty.
  13. jay
    He said it's about money for other teams. That's inferring that the Twins will have to eat Morneau's salary in order to trade him, but it doesn't say anywhere they aren't willing to do that. The problem is likely that other teams aren't offering anything of value in return for that, not that the Twins won't do it... but that's not for certain either.
  14. jay
    I guess I'm reading that a bit differently also. It's not about the money, it's about actually getting something back of any value. Why pay $3M to not have Morneau on the team and get some no-chance A-level scrub in return?
  15. jay
    While I do mostly agree (get a stud if/whenever you can), I think the Twins approach to free agency is more likely to fill one (or two) holes this way. If the pipeline is working properly, they shouldn't need more than that. I'd love to see it, but I don't think signing a big-ticket free agent each off-season is in the cards. Not so much present day, but realistic payroll constraints will come into play. Some of the shorter-term, mid-level talents might be attainable with this approach, but I'm not so sure those guys win you a World Series either.
  16. jay
    You make a decent point. Depending on how you frame it, probably not a ton. You could probably argue that the deals for A-Rod, Pujols, Prince, and maybe a few others could have bought 3 good FA pitchers. So, in the last 15 years... maybe a few Yankee teams, a couple Red Sox teams, a few Tigers years (although financial flexibility doesn't really apply given Ilitch's current approach), maybe the new Dodgers? Are you proposing that the Twins have that flexibility and should sign 3 (or 4, or 5) of those guys?
  17. jay
    I guess trying to fault Ryan for not doing something that no GM has ever done threw me off from thinking it was a real discussion. I was referring to 3 guys off that list of the what is basically (and unfortunately) the best free agent starting pitchers. I apologize if the previous post didn't make that clear. Yes, a GM can replace 3 pitchers in a rotation. No GM has ever signed 3 (or 4, or 5) top free agent SPs in one off-season.
  18. jay
    Ryan or not, no GM has ever done it. Although, I'll certainly give you that he doesn't top the list of GMs that would uncover a market inefficiency in free agent starting pitching... just as much as that's a completely made up thing.
  19. jay
    Poorly being the key word. From the list of names that was provided there, that's unheard of.
  20. jay
    I hope that's not your honest expectation. I'd add a few more guys to that list and be extremely happy with getting 2, placated with 1. Signing an entire rotation out of free agency in one off-season just doesn't happen.
  21. jay
    Assuming that he was offered young talent for any of the aging assets might not be accurate. Are we talking about W. or Bill Smith? For some reason, my mind draws parallels between the two.
  22. jay
    I think it's an inverse relationship. As pitches counts are limited, effort exerted on each pitch goes up. You especially see this with the rise of the bullpen and specialists. It's the same thing with pads and concussions in the NFL/NHL. As players have safer gear, they are willing to give and absorb bigger hits. These changes that are supposed to bring good may very well have the end result of more injuries.
  23. jay
    Pitch F/X itself only captures the three dimensional plane the ball traveled on and the ball's movements. There's nothing vague about that or the measurements. The strike zone is applied to those measurements based on an interpreter's definition, which is about the only part of it that you could possibly categorize as vague. In any fashion, variations on that strike zone by the umpire should cancel out across teams and catchers as the sample size grows. If a certain group of umpires call a lot of 'high' strikes, that effect will be shown equally on all catchers over time. So, it's hard to blame umpires for the differences shown across catchers.
  24. jay
    I know I've read specific stats that prove what we all see -- umpires are less likely to give you a strike call on the edges when you're ahead in the count. When you're behind in the count (specifically w/ 3 balls), the umpire is more likely to keep the at bat alive with a strike call. If Twins pitchers are consistently ahead in the count and have a high strike %, this would seem to work against the Twins catchers and attempts to assess their framing skills. Does this make sense to anyone else or do I need more coffee? Nothing can defend Ryan Doumit and his consistently wretched results though. He's pretty much the poster child for all the mechanics you can isolate on how NOT to get strike calls. Assigning values -- questionable. Definitions -- less questionable. Data -- not very questionable.
  25. jay
    Even without trying to put a specific value on the impact of framing, it seems pretty clear that it exists. If it exists, we (and the Twins) should probably use the data to assess performance in some manner. However, we've seen arguments to doubt the technology, doubt the strike zone, doubt the staff, etc and all have been rebutted. What other reasons can we think of to discredit this data?
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