jay

Thatcher and Duensing are both lefties and Arb2 guys making about the same amount of money, but your statements are true. ARI presumably wanted a lefty (which rules out Burton and Fien), so SDG was probably a better match. Bummer. I haven't supported trading Perkins, but I wouldn't have ruled it out for a guy like Kennedy, especially if we could get another SP prospect in the deal.

The bucket of balls is exactly the problem. If we could get guys back that had even a remote chance of being legitimate regulars, TR would make that deal. I just don't think he's getting those offers. So, when he trades off Morneau or Pelfrey or Doumit for a barely marginal return, he's realistically not accomplishing anything other than shedding salary (for which he'd be burned here). If the offers aren't there, it's okay to say no. Otherwise, you turn into the next Billy Smith who would trade to trade because he thought he had to. I've seen the point about re-signing Morneau in the offseason if they trade him, but it just doesn't really happen. An Asst. GM, "You have to be realistic that if you trade a guy, you are not going to be able to re-sign him. That is what history shows."

The current offer from the Padres for Ian Kennedy is said to be Thatcher, Stites, and another MiLBer. Roughly equate that to Duensing, Tonkin, and xxx. I'd make that deal in less than 1 second.

So, six guys have been traded to fill some various roles on contenders. If 10 teams are "sellers", we're talking less than 1 trade per seller. Downs and Hairston are the only two where the Twins have a comparable guy they could have offered (Duensing and Doumit). What was the return for those two trades? Marginal. Perkins could bring a haul, but plenty of folks here don't support trading him. It's not to say we aren't all hopeful a move happens for various reasons, but I'd say John is using more perspective than company line.

Hard to say the Twins have spent "aggressively" on amateur Int'l FAs (guys now subject to the Int'l cap). The Rangers and Jays spent aggressively. The Twins had been pretty middle of the pack with that Sano guy being the one exception. The Twins have most certainly not been aggressive on professional Int'l FAs (guys who are or would have been exempt from the Int'l cap), predominantly the Japanese and Cubans. Our only toe in this water was the Nishioka disaster. Puig, Cespedes, Iwakuma, etc... a lot of guys that would look nice in a Twins' uni.

Via unanimous consent, we hereby strike down this measure. Good luck to the scraggly-beards, elsewhere.

A number of vets have been DFA'd recently. Any interest in the Twins making a move to grab one of them? Ted Lilly: Last year of a 3/$33M contract. Owed somewhere around $4M for the rest of the season. Possibly an option for the rotation to see if he has anything left? However, concerns about if he can start or not, "Lilly told Mattingly before the All-Star break he didn't feel his body was up to the task of returning to the mound four days after a 90- to 100-pitch outing any longer... Asked whether he's able to start, Lilly said, 'I'm not too far away, the main thing is being healthy... I'd like to be in the big leagues as soon as possible.' " Dodgers veteran pitcher Ted Lilly is designated for assignment - latimes.com Jason Bay: On a 1/$1M contract. About the best thing you can say about his production is a 98 OPS+. An option as a RH bench bat / corner OF? Brad Hawpe: Minor league FA. Only 34, but has struggled to stay health since 2010. LH bench bat? Carlos Pena: On a 1/$2.9M contract, owed a little over $1M. Huge K rate, but ISO of .141 would provide a little pop off the bench (Twins ISO = .138)? Brandon Inge: 1/$1.25M contract. Twins have had chances at him before but passed, hard to see anything that has changed for the better. Ted Lilly would seem to be the most intriguing of the group. He's owed a chunk of money for the rest of the year (which shouldn't be a problem), but one could question what value he'd bring for that. The bats don't seem intriguing and I'd rather see that playing time go to a guy like Colabello. If Morneau or Doumit get moved, it could make some sense, but I'd still prefer Parmelee to any of them.

Have to agree. I finally watched it for the first time about a month ago. The wife is a casual baseball fan and really enjoyed it as well. Free to watch now with Amazon Prime.

The distribution should be subject to any normal distribution curve. There is a true mean out there somewhere, but you'll get some years that come in above that mark and some years that come in below. For example, you wouldn't think BB would vary much year to year, but the numbers do show variation since 2010 and the other factors don't jump around a ton more in comparision -- BB Factor 2010 - 1.037 2011 - 0.957 2012 - 1.082 2013 - 0.863 I'd be interested to know if other new ballparks saw a slow uptick the first few years as hitters and even team construction by the GM begin to account for how to take advantage of a park.

Unfortunately, the author of that post is misusing park factors as well. Here's an example: If the Twins pitching is really bad and gives up 1000 runs, you'd expect 500 at home and 500 on the road if park factors are equal. If the offense scores 800 runs (hopeful, I know), you'd again expect an even split if park factors are equal. So, the equation would look like -- (400+500)/81 as the home factor, and (400+500)/81 for the road factor. It wouldn't matter if the Twins gave up 2000 runs and it was 1000 at home and 1000 on the road because the equation would give you the exact same number. Unless the Twins have some abnormal split of who pitches at home and on the road, how bad the pitching is doesn't matter in this stat.

This certainly holds true and I don't mind Stewart's placement or Buxton's last year for true, top-end picks. However, that doesn't jive with why a guy like AB Walker or even a few of the other guys knocking get less love than a 3rd round pick this year. Some of that "new girl" effect seems to hold true, at least in my eyes.

The rotation doesn't matter. The stat is calculated in relation to road performance for both pitching and hitting, so the bad rotation has the same effect both ways. From the bottom of the page: PF: ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))

I'd hope some of the guys have/retain value above replacement level, but this is pretty true. It's not hard to picture a guy like Fien or Thielbar getting moved for a prospect with some level of value, so I'd like to think they're maybe just a slight bit above replacement level. This just may be true. And to think, it could have saved all the agony of losing Benson for nothing.

Does this mean we can put the trees back?

We took a sudden turn from minor league contracts (where the Twins seem to have done relatively well) to DFAs. I have seen a few of those arguments against making a claim, but I would disagree on your blanket characterization of where they come from. Your quote didn't make the case very well either. I still think Julio Borbon would have made a lot of sense, but the Cubs had priority in the claim order. Same for Reid Brignac and the Rockies.

So, wait, you quoted a member of the "defend management" crowd praising these moves to then create a make-belief quote about how that crowd has bashed even the idea of these moves?? I'm sorry, but that makes absolutely zero sense.

Correct. With the theme of the conversation, they were additional examples of minor league contracts.

As were Fien, Thielbar, Wood, Bernier, Colabello, and Ramirez. That makes a surprising 8 of the 42 on our '40-man' roster. More than I would have thought...

True statement. Our own Samuel Deduno would have to be right up there though. A couple other guys have been productive from this last offseason -- Byrd, Raburn, .... and I'm running out of names.

I fully get that different lists have different objectives, but I'm not so sure Eades, Bard, Chargois, Gonsalves, nor Turner have done anything to show the upside of a star. Turner's bat profiles him as the next Drew Butera. Again, I'd personally list a number of guys over all five of them. In my opinion, Mayo shows too much love for guys drafted in the top 3 rounds in recent years and not enough love for guys who have actually produced in the minors.

It's a bummer this didn't turn out better. Good luck going forward, Rich. Imagine the Cubs-like praise TR would get if Harden had turned out to be a tradeable asset!

Strop and Arrieta both have some level of upside, but that's been discussed to death already. My point was from a pure $$$'s standpoint, I'm not sure those two are worth the extra $7.5M the Cubs spent -- especially in relation to the overwhelming love they are getting here for it. Even if we add the $388k Int'l slot, that crumb isn't what got them the #1, #3, and #22 rated Int'l players and it seems a bit disingenuous to insinuate that it did. None of those three you cited signed for less than $1.625M.

Not bad from 1-10, but I agree with the comments about pretty lazy -- especially 11-20. I would have liked to see Adam Walker, Albers, Darnell, Tonkin, Pinto, Vargas, Meija, Hicks, Summers, Williams, and a few others before some of the names on there.

I think Morneau and Duensing would be more likely. The Pirates aren't the type of team to trade for an established (read: overvalued) closer anyway -- look at how they've traded off their previous All-Star closers.

Given how the Twins like to go in house, I was trying to think of former Twins that would fit the mold of a young, Latin coach. The only guy I could come up with that has any sort of coaching experience is Juan Castro. Who am I missing?