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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Latest word is framing this trade as making room for Nathan's salary. Detroit basically swapped Fister's 2 remaining years at roughly $17M for 2 years of Nathan at roughly $20M and their trade return. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/timing-is-everything-in-the-doug-fister-trade.html Here's a question: Would you have traded Perkins for Fister? The Tigers would get 3 years at $12M instead of 2 for $20M with Nathan and the Twins would get their best SP of the offseason. I certainly would have thought hard about it.
  2. jay
    I still don't understand why these depth signings get such a negative response. It's not even like he's on the 40-man. You can't honestly tell me he'll be blocking innings that our relief pitcher prospects need. Those guys will get their innings. What does this matter to the point of being negative about it? The story with Rahl and the unwarranted hate there was that it was "more of the same". Then the last few days happened. Can we give this stuff a rest yet? Maybe just welcome the guy to the organization and wish him the best?
  3. jay
    This is a personal peeve of mine. I didn't like the Correia move either. I'm not sure he's being paid as a #4 like some are suggesting (see Jason Vargas). More like a #5. In hindsight, we probably all need to be grateful that we didn't get a better "guy" -- they all stunk. Sure, Greinke and Sanchez were clearly better, but those were pipe dreams. A year closer to the farm graduating and TR is making moves. Let's hope they pan out better than last year's crop.
  4. jay
    Not bad ideas. Thanks for sharing. I definitely think a catcher will happen. Newest word has the Jays signing Navarro, so that leaves AJ and Salty as the preferred choices. Davis has plus speed obviously, but can't hit righties and hasn't posted a decent OPS since 2009. He's been platooned consistently and could be an option to pair with Presley. He'd basically be replacing Mastroianni (ironically, the same Mastroianni that Toronto sent to waivers due to Davis's presence). I wouldn't support signing him unless he was going to be platooned. Not a lot of better options out there though other than Choo, Ellsbury, and Granderson for big money and a move to a corner for Buxton eventually. Pretty unlikely and I think I'd literally poop myself if it happened. I would be stunned by a third SP. It would need to be someone who makes it easy to justify releasing one of our current guys with no options remaining. I think Kazmir would qualify.
  5. jay
    Right. I'd be very surprised if Hendriks makes the team out of camp simply given that he still has an option. Gibson didn't exactly tear it up in the his first go and it's not hard at all to envision him starting the year back in AAA as well. Swarzak is out of options as well, so they'd lose someone even if one of Diamond, Worley, or Deduno swung into the long-man role. I'd make it an almost certainty that Gibby starts in AAA if another FA SP comes on board. All that said, I'd still welcome a move for Hughes.
  6. jay
    I put up a first blog post on this whole timing issue. Check it out for some rational data. Shane, I can usually agree with most of your posts. Lately, you've been filled with vitriol and doubt. Have you shared your offseason plan yet? I'd love to see it (no snark here).
  7. jay
    If the Twins aren't interested in them, I think we'd want to exclude those data points so that we can see when pitchers who aren't attached to a qualifying offer actually sign. Since last year was the first offseason with the new qualifying offer rules and loss of draft pick (more importantly, bonus pool), it's easy to pick out who that was -- there were only two of them. Lohse is obviously the one data point way out in March. We could just cut off the chart February 8th without him. The other is Kuroda, who re-signed with the Yanks on November 20th. Without him, the chart would be slightly more steep from the left.
  8. jay
    Thanks! I left out int'l FAs since the posting fee complicates things. I think the closest example to what you're mentioning would be Darvish and the narrative that other top pitchers will wait didn't actually happen. Buerhle and CJ Wilson were the other two big SP contracts that offseason (2011/12). They both signed right around the Winter Meetings while the posting deadline for Darvish was still a week away. Tanaka could certainly influence this offseason. I'm just not so certain what kind of influence it will be.
  9. jay
  10. jay
    I won't rebut your whole post, for fear of running out of space on the internet. I don't need to teach someone of your skill-level about the fact-based models that you claimed to be using -- you should know better. Again, I've taken issue with your attempts to use selective stats intermingled with opinion to frame a case against Salty. The BABIP and consistency stuff was your best effort yet. Again, I don't love the guy or even have some supremely great desire for the Twins to sign him... but sheesh, you'd think he ran over your dog when you were in Texas. Personally, I think he's worth a 2 year deal at 8M per, but welcome to free agency -- he'll get more. The playing time piece is not relevant. A starting pitcher will be in 30 some games, but you don't see that used to factor what salary they deserve. 120 games isn't unreasonable for a catcher on a team with a decent backup, as has been the case. The WS bit isn't relevant either. If the Red Sox had lost so much faith as you're suggesting, why have they made him significant offers (per multiple reports)? Throwing out terms from statistics isn't quite as intimidating as you may think. And, for the record, I prefer JMP, SAS, and Tableau... but no, I won't be meeting you on SABR.
  11. jay
    You cited Pinto's .342 BA and 45% runners thrown-out and said he'll only get better. Neither of those numbers are realistic. I do think he has the potential to be a solid MLBer. I won't be heartbroken in the least if the Twins don't sign him, I just don't think it's horrible like you're trying to make it out to be. You certainly are not using "fact based models"... sprinkling real, but hand-selected data among opinions doesn't qualify. You keep trying to make this case against him with disingenous data points and subjective opinions. You do have a point on the consistency issue, but don't act like you know exactly how many games he'll play and exactly what is BA will be (which is about as relevant as RBI, which you've already denounced). We can use the games played argument on pitchers too... and, the Red Sox do reportedly have an offer out to him for 2 years for what is likely a similar AAV. It's the third year that Salty is looking for.
  12. jay
    They could use 2 from that list, but is that what it would take to think they had a decent (unprecedented, even??) offseason? I would certainly like 2, but I wonder if the expectations are getting a little carried away.
  13. jay
    Any of us pretending to know what the negotiation process consists of is a joke. Isn't this the exact same as the 'Twins Aren't Doing Stuff' thread?
  14. jay
    That's a fully reasonable argument. This is not.
  15. jay
    Dave's argument in favor of Salty has been repeated multiple times as based on his improvements. We all know he wasn't a stud when he hit MLB -- which are your memories of him in Texas. If you don't think it's reasonable for a player to improve, then continue on your war path against Salty. Saying he sucks behind the dish (which most scouts and advanced stats would tell you otherwise) and using anecdotal stories don't erase what he is -- a more certain thing than what we have today and an above average performer at his position (we need more of those). If the alternative is Doumit, I hope you're kidding. If the alternative is Pinto, you're taking a huge chance on an unproven player. If the alternative is some other free agent, okay make that case, but it's mostly a matter of preference.
  16. jay
    I'm in that range and my body pains would love to tell you it was earlier than that.
  17. jay
    Right on. The defensive and positional differences don't give much credence to high-level offense comparisons. Salty is like 70 points above the OPS average for catchers while Plouffe is like 15 points below the average 3B. That's significant.
  18. jay
    Maybe this is the part that isn't clicking... Arroyo (and other RH flyball pitchers) stand to benefit more in comparison to those opposing pitchers due to the tendencies of their batted balls. It can absolutely benefit the Twins more than others.
  19. jay
    Dave for GM.
  20. jay
    Heck... Ryan Doumit isn't even a catcher, period. That is, unless being able to physically put on a catcher's mitt is all it takes to qualify for that term.
  21. jay
    And we might also learn that the moon landing really was a farce after all these years. We can choose to be skeptical of everything for ever, but I'd think we could commonly accept most things. Four seasons of data says that it is true. If that's not enough, I'm really not sure what would satisfy that inner-skepticism of everything. 2020? 2040? Maybe global warming will shift the wind currents by then and you'll be right after all.
  22. jay
    I'd argue the Twins need any benefit they can find... why would you ignore it? No one here is saying TF is a pitcher's ballpark. It's actually pretty neutral across most categories -- except HRs for LHB. Hence, a right-handed pitcher with flyball tendences such as Garza, Arroyo, or Hughes might be a little better fits. No, but there's a pretty solid case to be made that you should...
  23. jay
    Arcia and Mauer are already Twins. The impact of TF on them is completely independent of trying to sign a free agent pitcher whose batted ball profile would benefit from the characteristics of TF. The decision is Arroyo vs another FA. As Levi pointed out, it's money better spent compared to signing a comparable pitcher with a different profile. No, the difference isn't going to win the World Series next year, but you certainly can't rule out a potential win difference.
  24. jay
    I don't think you'll find data that specific anywhere. For what it's worth, only HR as LH is below league average. LH hitters in TF are able to hit singles, doubles, and triples at league average or higher rates.
  25. jay
    You make blanket statements like this, but also make statements about how the Twins should find guys who just haven't been successful in their current environment for some reason. Seems pretty contradictory. I don't understand why you wouldn't want the Twins to find guys who maximize the physical characteristics of their home playing environment. It's pretty easy to see how those players can represent greater value to the Twins than other teams.
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