Good job! The only thing I would add is, how the Tanaka deal plays out complicates this free agency period. No way the top tier starting pitchers will sign until that is resolved.

How does that chart look for guys tied to a draft pick? Those are guys who sign late and the Twins aren't interested in them, reportedly.

Good job! The only thing I would add is, how the Tanaka deal plays out complicates this free agency period. No way the top tier starting pitchers will sign until that is resolved.

Thanks!

I left out int'l FAs since the posting fee complicates things. I think the closest example to what you're mentioning would be Darvish and the narrative that other top pitchers will wait didn't actually happen. Buerhle and CJ Wilson were the other two big SP contracts that offseason (2011/12). They both signed right around the Winter Meetings while the posting deadline for Darvish was still a week away.

Tanaka could certainly influence this offseason. I'm just not so certain what kind of influence it will be.

How does that chart look for guys tied to a draft pick? Those are guys who sign late and the Twins aren't interested in them, reportedly.

If the Twins aren't interested in them, I think we'd want to exclude those data points so that we can see when pitchers who aren't attached to a qualifying offer actually sign.

Since last year was the first offseason with the new qualifying offer rules and loss of draft pick (more importantly, bonus pool), it's easy to pick out who that was -- there were only two of them. Lohse is obviously the one data point way out in March. We could just cut off the chart February 8th without him. The other is Kuroda, who re-signed with the Yanks on November 20th. Without him, the chart would be slightly more steep from the left.

Jay, thanks for your response. I would have thought differently.