DaveW
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Everything posted by DaveW
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how did it work out for the Mets, Royals and Blue Jays?
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So they are basically a wash defensively, Murphy is slightly better at throwing guys out, but is poor in the other aspects as per the stats
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Murphy had a 28% CS rate and was the 4th worst defensive catcher overall per fangraphs. They are both liabilities behind the plate, as a bonus, AJ wouldn't have cost us giving up a 20/20 gold glove CF type!
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I don't get why the Padres would do that. They are literally giving up the 3 best players in that trade.
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Gibson, Arcia for Jay Bruce and Chapman (and a prospect)
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It's all setting itself up nicely for a Torii Hunter signing in early June.
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As I said at the time, the Twins never should have traded Liriano, instead they should have allowed him to "let it fly" as Pittsburgh did, and should have signed him themselves to an extension. Letting him go because he didn't fit the "Twins way" was a major mistake and we haven't had anything close to an ace like pitcher since he left.
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The Pak deal is a nice one, but I agree, it isn't "going big" the contract he will sign (and ultimately the posting fee) will average out to like 9-10 million total a year, basically a mid range FA signing, albeit one with some nice upside.
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What unique situations am I ignoring? The Twins don't have small payroll limitations anymore! They have the ability to sign anyone they want, Terry Ryan spent well over 100 million the last two off-sesaon on pitching, 3 pitchers who are mid rotation type guys, he spent 10 million last year on a replacement level 40 year old RF when he could have easily had Nelson Cruz. It's not an ax to grind, as little as 2 years ago I still thought Ryan was the man for the job, but after observing how he runs this team, the moves he does and doesn't make it's clear to me that they need some new blood.
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Is moderation on this site fair or bias?
DaveW replied to jimmer's topic in Twins Daily Issues & Suggestions
Attacks on Terry Ryan? I have never "attacked" him, I have repeatedly said he is a poor current GM and I wish he would step down and take St Peters current role (or another role in the org) I think at one time he was a good to great GM, but the game has passed him by, I'm sure he is a great person and all of that as well. Saying someone should be fired is not "attacking" them FYI, and frankly that shows a bias. -
I don't think Suzuki gets anywhere close to 450 PA, I think Murphy starts at least 100 games if healthy.
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[source needed]
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It's the same thinking that is going on in this thread: "What do I care if Hicks becomes a stud in NYY, if he can improve catcher its all worth it!" This notion others are saying of "well if all the other players are studs then teams know the Twins need to trade Hicks so it lowers his value" is false as well. Everyone and their mothers knew the Patriots HAD to trade Cassel with Brady coming back, that didn't stop them from starting a bidding war and getting a good deal back in return. If Hicks is playing a great CF, on pace for 20/20 (or better) and continues to improve, there would be plenty of takers at the deadline willing to give up good value (regardless of if Rosario, Buxton and Kepler all had .850+ OPS or not)
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If you get a guy that is widely considered by experts to be a part time/platoon/backup catcher, I can't agree with the notion that you just "sold high" under any real scenario.
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Honest question: What "better" offensive players deserve Hicks at bats in April and May? Let's assume that Rosario locks down a spot. That's one of 3 spots down. Buxton: You really want to start him in the majors, and he is "better" as of April 1st then Hicks? After his massive struggles in the bigs? Kepler: You want to start this guy in the bigs beginning of the year? Hasn't had any real at bats above AA? Arcia: Coming off what could only be called a "terrible year" at best? Again, it's not that you need ONE of those guys to be better than Hicks, you need TWO. The odds that two are a better option then him April 1st? Slim to none. June 15th? 25% July 31st? 40% I don't mind trading him, I mind trading him for such a small and low upside return.
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I disagree 100% with this, most would as well. For all this 4th OF talk, that assumes that 3 of Rosario (best bet), Buxton (Struggled big time last year), Kepler (no real time above AA) and Arcia (trainwreck last season) immediately produce, not in June, not in July, but immediately. Hicks was set to be the opening day starting CF, let's not say he already was a 4th OF when that clearly wasn't the case, and only becomes the case if all the prospects stay healthy, become productive. (And at that point, THEN you can trade him! I'm sure you can get a low ceiling catcher in return in June)
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Not true. Hicks was on pace for 2.5+ in both bWAR and fWAR Murphy was on pace for 1.4 bWAR and 2.1 fWAR Besides: Hicks played in 30 more games and 200+ more PA And as a bonus: JR Murphy had a completely unsustainable .359 BABIP anyways.
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Hicks 2015 stats projected over 520 PA (not even a full season) gives him 17 HR and 20SB. At worst he is a 20/20 guy moving forward. He has gold glove talent and potential, the range is all there and he continues to improve on routes. He already is well above average for a CF overall (quite a compliment) and with a little bit more work and improvement he is a gold glover.
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So what does the outfield look like now?
DaveW replied to dougkoebernick's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Kepler has like 5 at bats above AA so far, right? I think it's a little early to assume or even worry that Kepler will be ready for the majors by mid season (I know you aren't saying its a given). If the Twins suddenly have 4 very good OF for 3 positions, and a very good DH (Pak) then they suddenly have a very good problem to have. More often then not, someone takes time to develop, gets hurt or just flat out becomes a bust. Counting on one top prospect to fill in a spot down the road? Thats ok, but to count on multiple guys with question marks (Arcia, Buxton, Kepler) and their potential to help in 2016? That sounds like potential trouble. Note: Rosario is far from a "sure thing" as well and could certainly take a step back as well. Though I am confident he will at least continue to play well enough in 2016 to earn his every day role. -
That's sort of like saying: "What do I care if Nathan and Liriano go on to post higher WARS then AJ? As long as AJ plays solid at catcher and we find a closer in house who cares!"-Giants fans back in the day
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Because that means they got crummy value for Hicks and lost the trade. There was nothing saying that: 1. Hicks had to be traded now 2. Hicks had to be traded this year 3. Hicks had to be traded for a catcher and catcher only
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It's about settling for mediocrity instead of looking for impact players. Hicks has the upside, JR Murphy does not. That is giving away significant upside/impact type potential for mediocrity. Sort of like when they more or less ran David Ortiz and Liriano out of town..... (non "twins way" type guys who wouldn't listen to "hit to all fields" and "pitch to contact/limit the slider!" coaching)
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I will be happy with a 2.5 WAR because that is his ceiling and basically makes him a nice but average player. Hicks meanwhile was already on a better than 2.5 WAR pace in 2015 (which is basically his floor at this point) and should continue to improve for sure.
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Another reason why this trade was frustrating: The Twins acquired the WRONG young Yankees catcher! Hicks maybe doesn't get Sanchez straight up, but I would give up a decent amount more to get a catcher like him who has upside.
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Next 5 years, I'm wiling to say there is a 90% chance Hicks puts up a higher WAR then Murphy, 60% chance it's significantly higher (2+ a year difference) 10% chance Hicks becomes a 2-3 time all star type.
