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Larsbars08

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Everything posted by Larsbars08

  1. Larsbars08
    He's huge for a 16 year old. He's going to be very big by the time he reaches adulthood. Hopefully he'll be able to add velocity as he gets older, but these signings are such a crapshoot. I assume he'll spend most if not all of next season at the Twins Dominican academy, before making it too the GCL in 2015.
  2. Larsbars08
    It isn't realistic to ask Dozier to move back to SS. He's seems pretty well established at 2B. My question is, who would be a realistic return for Rosario in the offseason? Prospect for prospect trades are practically unheard of. Lets be honest, the Pineda for Montero deal has gone horribly for both teams. So it would probably be Rosario and someone else for a major league SP. I'm sure we'd all love David Price, but that doesn't seem realistic, who would be a realistic option. Are there any Gio Gonzalez types who could be potentially available? This hypothetical trade scenario is hard to evaluate without knowing the type of pitcher we could get back.
  3. Larsbars08
    Dozier has had a great year, but his lefty/righty splits are pretty drastic. I'm worried that we'll lose a lot of his value if his triple slash numbers against lefties aren't quite as impressive in the next year or two. I'm not sure if I'm ready to trust Dozier as the occasional offensive force he's been this year. Rosario has been a much better performer in the minors at a much younger age than Dozier was, with the exception Dozier's breakout year at age 24. Point being, that Rosario has a much higher offensive ceiling than Dozier does, and it feels way too premature to speculate on a trade, when we can't be sure that Dozier will sustain his numbers. The fact that Dozier has been very good this year, allows the Twins to be patient with Rosario. He'll be 22 and still very much a prospect next year. He can spend much of the year at AAA next year, and looks to be a likely September call-up next year. If we really need to trade someone, why not dangle Dozier when Rosario is getting ready. Dozier probably would net a nice return, and he's also a "proven" commodity, compared to Rosario. Plus, minor-leaguers being swapped for other minor-leaguers is pretty rare.
  4. Larsbars08
    Based on what we've heard about him, I assume that there will be a posting fee that is roughly half to 2/3 of what Yu Darvish got. Which would be roughly a 25-35 million dollar posting fee. When it's that high you're probably expecting a contract in the ballpark of 5 years for 25-40 million depending on how high the posting fee ends up. The posting fee is high, but in the end you're probably only paying 5-8 million a year for a pitcher who probably becomes our best pitcher. That's far from a prohibitive cost, even for the Twins.
  5. Larsbars08
    I bet this guy loves Yadi Molina, even though Molina has only just barely begun to put up the stats that Mauer has for almost 10 years. The Cards are a model organization, but their success has started with the pitching. Blaming everything on Mauer is the most homer statement I've heard from someone who claims to be a fan of another organization. On the other hand, what a weird topic for a fan of another team to chime in on. I also don't understand why people blame Mauer for his contract. It's like it's money out of their pocket. It's not like it's his contract that's stopping the front office from spending more money. The Twins should have given him an Evan Longoria type deal long before his 2009 season, but that's the Twins fault, not Mauer's.
  6. Larsbars08
    Look, if he can come back and play with no problems, than let him do it. I have no problem if they played him at DH for the rest of the year, but it's still premature to shut him down immediately. It's become clear that no two concussions are alike. Morneau and Koskie are one end of the spectrum, but there are also guys who come back relatively quickly. This is not to call Mauer out. If he's still feeling symptoms, than don't let him near the ballpark. But if next week he feels fine, and the doctors have signed off on it, then why not let him get a few at bats.
  7. Larsbars08
    Keith Law in his chat today mentioned that he saw Gonsalves with little projection and not really having much off-speed stuff. I know KLaw doesn't like Gonsalves. I don't really care about that and determining a player's projectability seems entirely subjective. However, the comment about the breaking ball is an entirely specific criticism. Does anyone know how his off-speed stuff is? He's got time to develop it, but more advanced hitting is going to eat him up if he can't develop one quickly.
  8. Larsbars08
    Is Arcia eligible? I think he would at the top if he is.
  9. Larsbars08
    Piazza wasn't a first ballot hall of famer because he was mostly awful behind the plate, and PED innuendo. Mauer probably gets in after a few years on the ballot if he retired today. If he puts up 2-3 more years like his last two, he's a first or second ballot hall of famer. From 2006-2010, he was without question, the best catcher in baseball. How many guys can say they were the best at their position for several years? They're pretty much all hall of famers, unless they had very short careers. Minus his lost year in 2011, he's been a top 3 catcher in all of baseball since 2010. Buster Posey and Yadier Molina are great, but let's revisit the argument when they do what Mauer has done consistently over 10 years. Call me optimistic, but I say that by the time he finishes his career, he's easily top 10 catcher historically, with a good chance to be a top-5 catcher.
  10. Larsbars08
    I really don't know. I want to be optimistic, I still love him, but I just don't know what to expect from him anymore.
  11. Larsbars08
    He's still younger than Kyle Gibson. He's had a bad year in AAA, but the year before he was nearly unhittable. This is his second real stint in the Majors since last season. There are not enough MLB ready starting pitchers in the system right now to actually block him. Let him pitch till the end of the season, with a shot to make the rotation next year. We need to find out what we've got with him.
  12. Larsbars08
    If Santana could raise his OBP about 20 points, he'd definitely be a fringe top 100 prospect. He really needs to take a few more walks. Baseball America rated him as the best defensive SS in the Eastern League this year, but he's also got 31 errors.
  13. Larsbars08
    I am excited to see Pinto play. I haven't heard a lot of good things about his catching, so it will be interested to see him on TV.
  14. Larsbars08
    You know it was a good day when a player with 500 PA's OPS goes up 40 points. On another note, Miguel Sano AA Splits: Pre All-Star Break: .195/.289/.500 in 26 games. Post All-Star Break: .270/.383/.631 in 38 games.
  15. Larsbars08
    I'm going to guess we'll be in the 4-7 range. I think you have to go BPA. Hopefully need and BPA coincide like it did last year, but you definitely have to lean pitcher. It sounds like Rodon and Hoffman are this year's version of the Appel/Gray debate, but better. It will be interesting. Remember how Sean Manaea was a top 3 pick at this point last year. There will be guys who shoot up to the top of the board, and guys who fall. It's way too early to really know who are going to be the top 10 guys.
  16. Larsbars08
    I thought about those guys, but unless they're already highly regarded, they're unlikely to have a real shot till they've pitched in full season ball.
  17. Larsbars08
    As the minor league seasons are coming to a close, I've been thinking about the strength of our farm system, particularly the top-end talent. Now that Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson are probably no longer eligible to be on the K-Law, BA, Sickels, Mayo, and Baseball Prospectus' top 100 prospect lists, I think the no doubter top 100 guys have to be: 1. Buxton 2. Sano 3. Meyer 4. Stewart 5. Rosario I think Berrios is on the bubble, but doesn't make it due to his late season swoon. Is there anyone else in the system I've missed who will crack any of the top 100 lists?
  18. Larsbars08
    Way too optimistic and highly unlikely. Don't get me wrong, I'm optimistic for the team's future. I think that the basic structure for a successful team is being formed in the minor leagues, but the scenario in the article is a pipe dream. I doubt Travis Harrison is up, some of these guys are probably going to flame out. None of these guys are guaranteed to come in right away and perform excellently, Aaron Hicks is an excellent example of how difficult the jump is. Arcia, who has played well, still has large holes in his game. I'm not a Terry Ryan hater, but are you really going to call him a "minor league guru?" Really? It's fun to read, but it's basically MN Twins fanfiction.
  19. Larsbars08
    According to the box score, Stewart didn't start. Anybody know why?
  20. Larsbars08
    Baseball America just did a write up on Adam Walker. Adam Brett Walker's Potential Divides Scouts - BaseballAmerica.com I'm not a subscriber, but would someone with a subscription please paraphrase a brief summary and include some choice snippets from the article. I'm not asking for a copy/paste, I'm just curious to know what the gist of the article is. How strongly do some scouts feel about his potential, versus the doubters? Edit: Just read the above article by Ed Thoma, linked by Seth. The article takes some of the shine off of Walker, but he still seems like an interesting prospect. If scouts had thought more highly of his hit tool, he wouldn't have been available in the 3rd round. Hopefully he continues to develops and can becomes at least a league average hitter. Even a below average hitter, with his power is still a useful major league player.
  21. Larsbars08
    The only real difference between Buxton and Trout's career trajectories, is that Trout was drafted at age 17.5, whereas Buxton was nearly 18.5. Even though their career paths have been eerily similar, Trout was roughly a year less physically mature when at the same stage as Buxton. It doesn't make Buxton's performance any less impressive, but it does show how incredible Mike Trout is. I would probably guess that Buxton is less likely to hit 30 home runs every year, like Trout is capable of, but is more likely to stay a prodigious base stealer, and defensive wizard longer than Trout will be. On another note, sometimes I feel like Mac from Always Sunny in Philadelphia, talking and thinking about these guys physiques.
  22. Larsbars08
    A couple nitpicks: The only real negative trend has been that his ISO has gone down a bunch since his promotion to A+. I'm guessing it has more to do with the large stadiums in the Florida State League. Hammond Stadium, where the Miracle play is an awful park for right-handed power hitters (according to park factors). Sano's 80 power made short work of it, but Buxton's power is still developing. His K% spiked when he was first promoted, but since then, he's been taking a lot more walks, and the K% is falling. I'm eager to see how he responds to his first offseason after a full season of baseball. Every profile I've ever seen has trumpeted his character and work ethic, so I doubt he'll slack. I've got a soft spot for Miguel Sano, because his signing was what got me interested in prospect watching, but at this point, I've got a huge mancrush on Buxton. I would have been happy with Correa, but Buxton is absolutely incredible. Thank you Houston.
  23. Larsbars08
    I have to think that the walk rate is the biggest impediment he has to eventually being a productive major leaguer. It's pretty clear he can hit for a good average, with very little power, so in order for him to be productive, he's going to need to get on base at a solid clip. I can't remember who it was, but I believe I saw a scouting report that said, despite his low walk rate, he has a fairly patient approach at the plate. I can only hope that his walk rate will rise towards average. With his bat, if he can have a walk rate approaching average, he'll be an above average SS. With the errors, I'd worry more about his defense, but Baseball America rated him as the best defensive SS in the Eastern league, and from the brief glimpse the other day, he had tremendous range. If his range is as good as I suspect it is, the amount of errors might be attributed to the fact that he's able to reach balls that very few others are, if not always make a clean play. If it's only mental errors, than you would hope that he could work through them and become a top notch SS.
  24. Larsbars08
    wow.
  25. Larsbars08
    Punto was often an offensive black hole on some good 90 win teams that Gardy insisted on playing frequently. Carroll was an offensive black hole on some terrible 90 loss teams. Expectations make a big difference.
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