Han Joelo

First off, I have a 7 year-old, and I love the metaphor. I also have a 5 year old, though, and the Dozier thing reminds me of him and the $100 bill he got for Christmas from Grandma. He went and bought a $40 Lego set, which was pretty cool, and then promptly forgot/didn't know he had so much more buying power. It was almost like he felt he had to buy something RIGHT THAT VERY second, because if he waited, inflation or something was going to devalue his dollar to the point he would only be able to get the same Lego set later. The point is, he left $60 of value on the table when he left the store. He could have gotten TWO $40 sets and another little one to boot. And some Lego sets are pretty good investments. The camper-van we got for $40 bucks last Christmas is now selling for $80. Who knew? As far as the bigger premise, why not? Start with Sano in the MVP conversation, add Buxton to the fringe of that conversation, and throw out ace in the making Jose DeLeBerrios 2 out of every 5 days, and boom. 75 wins.

I like Nick's perspective. This Dozier drama has been an interesting case study in optimism vs. pessimism. There's some of both on both sides, for sure, but the tenor of the "trade Dozier for whatever the Dodgers offered" comments tends to skew towards pessimism. Unless you're extremely optimistic about Deleon. But hey, I was once pretty optimistic about Alex Meyer, Delois Guerra, and Boof Bonser. And Jose Berrios. Wait, maybe I'm the pessimist!

By keeping Dozier, the Twins will avoid an historic 106 loss season, which will keep that stink off the young core. Good non-move.

Screw it. I say go for it. We're currently a 0 win, 0 loss team. Roll the bones. Keep in mind on my way to my brothers funeral.

These threads have been super fun and interesting to follow, at least the first 2000 or so comments were, give or take 500. I just skipped ten pages of unread comments and don't really feel like I've missed much. My mean-spirited, uncharitable, January-gloom tinted takes: 1. I hope the trade falls through, ALL the prospects involved flop, Dozier rakes and is traded to the Giants at the deadline. Giants surge into playoffs, beating Dodgers on a Dozier home off of Kershaw in a key game where MadBum no hits the Dodgers. Actually, he doesn't just no hit them, he somehow NEGATIVE hits them. I think a negative-hitter is when the Dodger's second baseman, whomever it is at that point, doesn't even bother to go to the plate and just concedes the out. 2. Barring that, the Dodgers trade JDL to the White Sox for Frazier, who they plug in at 2B. Frazier flops, and JDL joins Giolito as future trivia category answers. "We would have also accepted Zach Wheeler, Rubby De la Rosa, or Andrew Cashner." The question was "Name some former top pitching prospects who were made available to headline major trades and didn't end up being worth a hill of beans." [author dons pitchfork/stat-proof body armor] 3. The trade is consumated (sic). JDL flops as a starter, but becomes a lights out closer. Brock Stewart has a Boof Bonser-like career. The third piece, the one that Doogie, in a Pullitzer Prize winning article on the Ringer identifies as the big hold-up, goes on to have a Hall of Fame career. This third piece's name has not been mentioned in any of the 3000+ comments by anybody. 4. Yadier Alvarez is eventually traded for Scott Diamond. Not his corpse, the ACTUAL Scott Diamond, who is still pitching for someone, somewhere.

Thanks, Seth. As my oldest nephew is almost 19, I try to imagine what it would be like if he got a job in Australia for six months out of the year.

Thanks for this. I wasn't a responder, but I am in agreement with the majority answers to most of the questions.

There are over 2000 comments that parse the relative merits of Dozier for Deleon + Alvarez (or not). Maybe this thread can stay a bit more creative? I am pretty sure I know how everybody feels about THAT deal at this point.

Deleon seems like a slightly better (maybe) less durable version of Berrios. To me, hope for the future rests as much (more) on Berrios and Romero (or Thorpe) being as good as we want Deleon and Alvarez to be. I am fine with stats and all, but these projections of Deleon putting up top ten numbers don't jibe with him being available at all, in which case he must be damaged goods in some way. Reminds me of the Span trade in that regard.

I'm starting to think that Alvarez is the big market, Cuban version of Wander. Only a pitcher, and a year older. Trading their investment in him for a sure thing in Dozier seems smart to me.

And let me just say I feel this thread has been thoughtfully discussed for the most part. At times it threatens to devolve into a polarized "trade or don't trade" oversimplification, but for the most part I think people are in agreement, but just differ in the perception of the details. Kind of would be interesting to do a "minimum acceptable return" poll.

Interesting analysis. Weird that the Easton trade has been called an overpay by some, when according to this chart he should've brought even more. I'll bet TR didn't have a chart like this, but I'll bet Falvey has something similar. Reminds me of Jimmy Johnson's "revolutionary" draft pick valuation chart for the NFL.

I read this article about the Cardinals proclivity for subterfuge: https://www.google.com/amp/redbirdrants.com/2016/12/27/st-louis-cardinals-mozeliak-rumors/amp/?client=safari Probably a dud link, but the point is these guys are tricky. Maybe they put it out to THEIR beat writer that they weren't interested just to mess with the Dodger's heads. They have absolutely nothing to gain by declaring their disinterest, unless it is a double reverse to try and scare the Dodgers into increasing their offer. And, to reiterate, Liriano was a "third" piece. I say haggle away.

Man, the inferiority complex is really rearing its head again. Minnesota: where the players are average (and bound to regress) and the management is a bunch of clumsy rubes. If Dozier is our only hope for ever possibly finding competitive pitching, I'm glad management is trying to maximize their "asset."

I think my expectations for Buxton are fairly tempered right now, but my hopes for him (and the team) are sky high.

I would withhold the plus from Doziers grade due to his and the team's soul crushing start.

Oh kripes. It took me nearly 1000 comments before I could get Walter Buehlers name right. Now I have to figure out how to pretend like I know who a bunch of new guys are. Maybe the Dodgers put these rumors out--"see, he's only worth Kolton Wong to the Cards. You really should take our offer, or some of your fans won't forget and they'll mention it in every post on forums for years to come."

Probably true, about how much the Dodgers value 2B. More's the pity. But, Murphy, along with Donaldson and Turner, stand as examples of hitters who have gotten better with age.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/transaction-retrospection-the-daniel-murphy-signing.html Murphy "earned" his whole contract in one year and finished second in the N.L. MVP voting. The Dodgers should have signed him instead of farting around with Kendrick and Utley.

I knew it was easy. I thought the check meant I was reporting someone for bad stuff.

I've never liked something enough to figure out how to like it on my phone. This statement has changed all of that. How do you like things on a smartphone?

It seems like some sort of inferiority complex is being manifested here, perpetuated by national writers and apparently acceptable to some here. If Dozier was a Red Sock or Yankee he'd be "worth" a lot more. If Falvine pulled a Beane here and replicates the Donaldson trade I will be very disappointed. If Dozier remains a Twin, so be it.

My boys got $100 from their grandma for Christmas. They each bought a $30 Lego set and were very happy, practically forgetting they even had change. Feels like some folks are so happy to be shopping with a crisp $100 bill that they would be happy to go home with the $30 set. Come on guys! We can at least dream on the millennium falcon set.

Gosh, when you put it like that, it makes me feel like the Twins should ask for more! De Leon nor Alvarez are remotely on par with Moncada as a prospect, Alvarez might compare to Kopech. Dozier and Sale are somewhat comparable in that they are incredibly cheap. What is Dozier getting paid? $15 million for two years of Dozier's prime, coming off an MVP caliber season (I say that because if he'd had the season he just had for a winning team in a big market…) Obviously we all differ on what we expect of Dozier and Sale and all the prospects involved moving forward. I expect Sale's arm to fall off, or get cut off in another jersey incident. I also expect Dozier to have a couple of really nice age 30-31 seasons, kind of like Josh Donaldson just had, or…Justin Turner. I don't even think Turner's contract would be a fair place to start if Dozier were on the open market.

I'm pretty leery of all this. It feels like the Dodgers are much like the Red Sox when it comes to prospect hyping. I would imagine they have a smart guy from Harvard on their staff whose sole responsibility is to generate prospect trade chips. De Leon feels like he has been groomed for the sole purpose of being used as trade bait. I'm not denying the numbers, but its the underlying stuff I worry about. Health, helium. On the other hand, how was it ok for the Red Sox to trading Moncada, despite the "investment" they'd made in him, but the Dodger's can't trade Alvarez…because of the investment? Anyway, this feels like some high stakes poker, and though I've been a Ryan defender in the past, I'm glad its Falvey and Levine sitting in the chair on this one. The one-for-one Span trade looks terrible in hindsight, but the longer we wait, the more confident I am that the Twins will get the best return possible.