What was it, two weeks ago when we were commenting on how effective the rotation was? Since then, Joe Ryan has looked human in two straight starts, Chris Paddack hurt his elbow with likely TJ surgery, Dylan Bundy threw two consecutive stinkers, and Chris Archer is getting even less far into games and giving up runs to boot.
Josh Winder has two outstanding starts, so we can expect regression at some point and Bailey Ober is on the Injured List. Ober has passed the minimum time to be on the list, but it appears that he will need to make at least one rehab start. Sonny Gray returned to the rotation after missing about three weeks. Gray was supposed to make another rehab start, but instead faced the AAAAs and pitched four scoreless innings.
Not exactly as rosy as things were about May 1. We fans can expect that, not just Twins fans, but all fans. Starting pitchers get ineffective (see Shoemaker and Happ) and they get injured. If a starting pitcher stays both effective and healthy enough to take his turn, he is worth tens of millions of dollars to his team.
Thoughts on the current rotation pieces: 1) Gray is as advertised. He a quality starter, not as durable as he was in his 20s, but he will give the club innings and give them a chance to win almost every time out. 2) Ryan is a rookie with a nice future. It remains to be seen if he can be effective for a whole season. He needs to find the right formula of being a strike thrower and making hitters chase. It didn't work on Tuesday. 3) Ober's contribution will go a long way towards determining the success of the rotation and the season. He's not pitched many innings over his career and is on the IL now. He finished very strong last year (with innings restrictions). I hope and expect he can do the same this year. 4) Josh Winder is another wild card. I hope the Twins manage his innings and get him through the season. He's got enough stuff to be very successful. 5) Chris Archer. Archer can't seem to have quick innings and get deep enough into games. His 5-run in three innings appearance made his formerly gaudy ERA swell to 4.43. He's got an adequate change to go with enough fastball velo and a decent slider, but he's made it hard on himself in every start with high pitch counts. Changes need to be made to get him deeper into games. 6) Dylan Bundy. Great command his first three starts followed by two straight where he didn't give his team much of a chance. I guess I would expect something in between most often going forward, but Bundy knows how to get people out, so I wouldn't write him off quite yet. 7) Chris Paddack. If by some miracle he doesn't require his second TJ surgery, he might be pretty good. If he does go under the knife, the Twins can hope to get at least a full year out of him. He could be a veteran presence in the middle of the decade.
Lots of question marks for this rotation. Two big prospects are on the horizon--Matt Canterino is only going four innings per start, but he's been lights out in AA and Jordan Balazovic made his first St. Paul start this season and made it 3.2 innings. If either of these guys could come up and augment the current starters, it would be a win for the pitching pipeline. The future looks very good for both of them if they can stay healthy.