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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    I wouldn't want to see that many RH bats in a row on the top of the order. Mauer should probably be in there someplace, most likely second. I don't mind Dozier hitting lower, but I think if Buxton does start the season with the Twins, he hits ninth to start, with Dozier first and Mauer likely second.
  2. stringer bell
    The Hawkeyes were great this year, but up until 2015 were in decline. Until and unless they back up this season with more dominance, I'll write it off as fluky.
  3. stringer bell
    It was a good game between evenly matched teams. The Gophers might be a bit better, but when they had half their team injured, they probably weren't. I don't have any basis for this, but I believe the MAC is equal to the leavings of the Big Ten after the high-powered teams (The Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and probably soon again Michigan, Penn State and Nebraska). The remaining ten annually are about the same as the MAC.
  4. stringer bell
    Not only does Dozier lead the league in pull percentage, he also hits the ball very weakly when it is on the right side of second base. With the exception of a homer against Corey Kluber, he has never hit a homer to the right of center and very few to center and left-center. 95% of his power to straightaway left and down the line. The point is that Dozier needs to adjust to go the other way occasionally with authority. The mid-May 2013 adjustment that made him a relative slugger also limited his ability to use the whole field IMHO. I hope he can incrementally adjust, but I think his ceiling as a hitter might be only .270. It would be nice if he drew as many walks in 2016 as he did in 2014--that would bring the OBP up to good levels and keep him as a factor in the top of the lineup.
  5. stringer bell
    I am a Twins fan and a huge Dozier fan. I saw his defense in 2013 as outstanding and SDI agreed, I viewed his defense in '14 as much less solid mostly because he made errors on plays he should have made (and if someone questions this I will explain). In 2015, I thought Dozier's defense was pretty good, he made a few less "wow" plays, but committed fewer errors. One factor in this plummeting rating might be shifting. Because he is overshifted, he may not get to balls that fall in a traditional zone for an infielder. My opinion is that Dozier is, and has been since moving to second base, a solid defensive player, but probably not elite. This specific rating shows a rapidly declining player and I haven't seen that.
  6. stringer bell
    I am a Twins fan and a huge Dozier fan. I saw his defense in 213 as outstanding and SDI agreed, I viewed his defense in '14 as much less solid mostly because he made errors on plays he should have made (and if someone questions this I will explain). In 2015, I thought Dozier's defense was pretty good, he made a few less "wow" plays, but committed fewer errors. One factor in this plummeting rating might be shifting. Because he is overshifted, he may not get to balls that fall in a traditional zone for an infielder. My opinion is that Dozier is, and has been since moving to second base, a solid defensive player, but probably not elite. This specific rating shows a rapidly declining player and I haven't seen that.
  7. stringer bell
    Welcome to TD Burt! The thing about Trevor May is that he hasn't been a top-flight starter, he projects to be one of the Twins' top five and he has exhibited tools that indicate he could be very good. The performance hasn't been there. Further, I wouldn't consider a move to the bullpen a "demotion", it would be putting May in a role to best help the team win. He's not in a position to gripe at this point.
  8. stringer bell
    Parker was a large human being, much like Sano. His listed weight was 230, but I'll bet by the late 80s, he was at least 250, if not more. He last played outfield regular in '87 at 35 years of age. Fifteen years ago, another large man played tried to be the biggest ever to play his position. His name was Duante Culpepper, who played in three Pro Bowls and was an All-Pro twice before suffering career-diminishing injuries. Finally, on to Buxton. I agree with theJacKemp, what is best for Buxton and the team long-term is what should be done. It may be best to start Buxton in Rochester, it may be best for him to start in center for the Twins. One mistake learned from Aaron Hicks would be to hit him down in the order to start.
  9. stringer bell
    I'll say it again--why the hue and cry to trade Tommy Milone? He is the most consistent starter the Twins have (worst ERA+ 90), he's experienced, under 30 and under team control. I get that we all want to see Nolasco gone, he's been ineffective and injured for two years, he's 33 and he makes three times as much money as Milone will next year, but Milone is decent and will continue to have value as long as he's decent. Every team goes through starters in the course of a year. Unless the Twins could get something substantial back that can help them this year, they should hang on to Tommy Milone.
  10. stringer bell
    Burdi couldn't handle AA last year. Nolasco has been a successful pitcher in the majors and actually threw the ball fairly well in May of last year. If Burdi succeeds and Nolasco struggles, sure make that move, but that move won't be made until some time in the season. As I've said about the position players, it is true of the pitching staff, there are very few sure things for a team with postseason aspirations. May could implode too.
  11. stringer bell
    The Hicks-Rosario discussion is interesting since they are such different hitters. Hicks is more patient, but despite being the bigger man, he doesn't drive the ball as often. Rosario is spooky aggressive, but I loved the results last year. One thing to remember Hicks was "rushed" to major leagues at 23 years of age. Rosario made his debut at the same age and he missed a half season of development with a suspension. Eddie did a lot more in his age 23 season than Aaron.
  12. stringer bell
    "arguably"-in this thread a lot of numbers and projections have been thrown out there. FIP makes May's best case, ERA his worst. If you are a slave to one advanced stat or another, then there is no argument. I know this--the Twins have a member of their staff who has always had a lower FIP than his ERA-Ricky Nolasco. He's 33 year old and has logged 1500 innings. It happens that guys don't meet their FIP, it also happens that guys have tendencies that make FIP unreliable for them-BA with RISP is a good example. As was noted earlier, xFIP shows something altogether different. It is no cinch May would be better than Milone or Nolasco for that matter. Without May, the rotation is deep, more qualified starters than spots in the rotation. The bullpen isn't as deep and adding May at the end with Jepsen and Perkins helps a lot. There is still room for another power arm in the 'pen, even if May is sent there.
  13. stringer bell
    I've liked the move of May to the BP since it happened. He had several outstanding outings in the 'pen and would add another quality arm to the end of the game. I'd still like to see one more quality arm (preferably a lefty) to have four options for the last innings. Choosing the stats puts May somewhere between the top and the bottom of the heap amongst the starters. I am of the opinion that he just another one of the #3-#5 starters, of which the Twins have an excess. In my opinion he translates best to high-leverage duty in the bullpen. The decision can be revisited later if the situation changes. I would submit that one more change in role should be it for Mr. May. I see pretty good value, but pretty big expense for the two veterans (Hughes and Santana) and I see better value due to lower cost for Gibson and Milone. I think Milone is the surest bet of prospective starters and with a projected salary of less than $5M, he would be worth much, much more on the open market. Perhaps someone will give up value to acquire Milone, but if not he belongs in the rotation.
  14. stringer bell
    Both Mastro and Benson should be considered organizational depth. If they got a chance with the Twins it would be a Cinderella story, particularly Benson. In my limited contact with both those guys, they seem like good people. I shook both their hands in spring training a few years back. Mastro was pretty nice on what had to be a bad day--the day he was sent to minor league camp and Benson mingled well with the fans looking for autographs
  15. stringer bell
    Cuddy got recalled for the first time on or about 9/11. He had to wait for days to join the team because games were postponed and teams were stranded with no planes flying. His debut was September 23 in Cleveland. He started as the DH and was 1-2 (a double) with a walk.
  16. stringer bell
    Moderator Note: No bickering please. Treat each other with respect.
  17. stringer bell
    Ryan--I'm sure the Twins expect him to take the reins as the starting catcher or at least share the position with the more well-rested Suzuki, but they aren't going to diss their starter already under contract and put pressure on the younger player. At the very least, Ryan is a good upgrade over last year's disaster of backup catchers. If the comparison is between Bethancourt and John Hicks, remember that Bethancourt is out of options. It is great to have a defense-first guy with options available if a catcher gets nicked and Hicks has a glimmer of upside to boot. I am of the opinion that Aaron Hicks will never hit enough to be a full-time regular at any position other than center field and that wasn't going to be the case in Minnesota, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. Maybe they could have gotten more for him, but in my opinion, they got fair value and at a position of need.
  18. stringer bell
    I'm no expert with defensive numbers, but it looks to me that BBRef has Santana's defense in center field as comparable to Hicks (SSS). My recollection of the 2014 season was that Santana was raw and uncomfortable out there the first half of his season, but was more than adequate later in the year. If he can hit closer to his 2014 numbers (yes, that's a big if), I don't think Danny Santana's defense in the outfield will hurt the Twins much. He has accumulated basically a full season of plate appearances in two years and he has an OPS of .710. I would accept that for a fourth outfielder, sometimes infielder or stopgap center fielder for less than half a season.
  19. stringer bell
    Pepé was a fine player and very versatile. He didn't play much shortstop as a major leaguer. I'm not much for stunts like a player manning all nine positions (and position players pitching), but Tovar had a fine career with the Twins.
  20. stringer bell
    I think it is pretty close to 50-50 that Buck starts the season in center field with the Twins. Far less than 50-50 that he is the leadoff hitter in Baltimore to start 2016. I wouldn't be totally surprised if Santana starts the season in center flanked by Rosario and Arcia (or Sano if Plouffe isn't traded).
  21. stringer bell
    A fourth OF and what type of player he is depends on Byron Buxton. If he's going to be ready at the start of the season or by Memorial Day, the key thing is to get someone to serve as a defensive replacement for the starting RF (most likely either Sano or Arcia) and sub occasionally for Buck. I like David Lough for that role. If the Twins want a RH corner OF because their two major offensive departures--Hunter and Hicks--hit lefties well, that is another story. For the season last year, the Twins handled lefties much better than righties. Mauer had modest reverse splits, and almost all of the HR power came from right handed hitters, which should still be the case in 2016, unless Arcia finds and spot and recovers his stroke.
  22. stringer bell
    I have not been impressed by Darnell in his SSS with the Twins or from his numbers at AAA. I know he did well at the end of 2015 for the Red Wings, but I don't think he's got enough stuff to get out big league hitters. I'd rather have Rogers, Cotts, Sipp or Bastardo, or Melotakis (in that order). Otherwise, I think the projected composition of the bully is about right. Fien doesn't really fit for me, but what's done is done.
  23. stringer bell
    I was in favor of non-tendering Fien. As noted above, he's a big league pitcher, but he is on the wrong side of 30 and his peripherals are slipping. Maybe the single salvation could be that he still can be optioned, so he can provide depth without standing in the way of a higher-upside setup guy.
  24. stringer bell
    mlbtraderumors.com has Milone pegged at $4.5M, not $7M. I would submit that what Milone provided to the A's and what he provided to the Twins last year is worth far more than $4.5M. The argument isn't about money, it's about consistency and quality. Milone's worst season ERA+ was a 90 where he stunk it up for the non-contending Twins in 2014. Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco each have at least two seasons where they were worse. Unless he somehow becomes Jamie Moyer, I get that what the Twins got from Milone last year is about as much as they can expect in any year, but his numbers are beyond passable, he is a good pitcher. We don't know if Duffey will come close to duplicating his SSS performance of 2015, we don't know which of the veterans will step up in 2016, we don't know if Berrios is ready. We can assume that at least one of the guys will disappoint or be injured. With so many uncertainties, having a more sure thing (Milone) as the fourth or fifth starter more than makes sense.
  25. stringer bell
    Mega-concur! That was my point about the Royals getting more than fifty starts from the likes of Vargas, Guthrie and Young. The Twins don't have one or two or three guys who we can be certain will be better than Milone. Milone is arguably the most consistent and proven starter in the Twins stable. On Fien, he's 32 and best utilized in the sixth and seventh inning. I'd much rather give those innings to Pressly, Alex Meyer or one of the AFL guys.
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