stringer bell

Seth, TD ranked Martin as the #1 prospect in the system. You've seen a lot more of him than I or most of the fan base has. How close do you think Martin is to being a big-league ballplayer? Do you think both Miranda and Lewis are closer?

Yeah, I'd like to know what the evaluation is and what the plan is. If he can help the team in the next year+, I would think it would be as an outfielder. There are four players for the three infield spots (Arraez, Urshela, Correa and Polanco) and two prospects at AAA (Miranda and Lewis). What I am getting is that Martin isn't as close to ready to help this club as I thought.

With the Twins and St. Paul not playing, not too many top prospects were in action last night. It is nice to see that only three of the prospects are on the injured list and only one on it for a long term. Good to see the Surge get a win and also see Varland pitch well.

This is a recurring issue. While we see more of it with the home team, I think all teams deal with it to some extent. When do you play through some pain or discomfort and when do you go to the training staff and say "I can't go"? I don't think the Twins have all the answers and I don't think anybody really does.

I wrote before the season started that the Twins were betting on Jeffers and Kirilloff to take the step of being full-time regulars. While Jeffers has looked okay in the early going, Kirilloff has not and now we know why. A few days ago I was thinking that the Twins were doing very well on the injury front and then on consecutive days Alcala and Kirilloff go down and both appear to be season-threatening injuries. Ouch.

The last two games have been "good Luis" and "bad Luis". Arraez was in the middle of everything good on offense on Sunday and played a solid third base. Monday, he had a tough day at third and did nothing offensively. Such is baseball. Given Arraez' unusual skill set, I think his usage has been about right. He should be in the lineup against right handed pitchers for certain. Against lefties, he is a mediocre singles hitter and guys like Urshela are better fits. Although, if all one needs to do is make contact, Arraez is pretty reliable doing that against southpaws.. Defensively, Arraez isn't going to win any gold gloves, but he is functional at second, third and in left field. I believe his knee issues are why the Twins don't want him patrolling the bigger area in left field. I don't like seeing a guy with such limited power as anything resembling a full-time DH, but I'm sure Luis will get some chances there. The positives that Arraez presents, plus his age, perhaps make him a trade chip. The Twins top prospects mirror some of his strengths (Miranda-positional flexibility. Martin-positional flexibility and on-base skills) so I do think he is replaceable. Arraez is fun to watch, plays hard and enjoys the game. He was third on the team in WAR last year (3.4 per BBRef) despite only playing in 3/4 of the games. He is an asset, but not indispensible.

I didn't consider Rooker a prospect either. 27 and up rookies breaking in and making an impact are pretty rare. If the Twins part with Kepler or make Kirilloff an full-time first baseman, I think Contreras would be a good fit to be promoted and I think he would do okay. With the amount of injuries that occur, I would expect one of the three non-roster outfielders getting a chance with the big club at some point this year. Cave and Garlick have the advantage of MLB experience, but if Contreras has performed clearly better than those two, he might get the nod.

Great start for Contreras, but he's 27 and not on the 40-man roster. On a different roster, he might be a good candidate for fourth OF, but it is pretty hard to call him a prospect.

Noah Miller looked outstanding late in spring training. I didn't realize that Encarnacion-Strand was a third baseman. If he is for real, the Twins have an embarrassment of riches on the left side of the diamond in the minors. Why do people limit a starting pitching prospect to "middle of the rotation"? I think Woods-Richardson, Canterino and Balazovic, to name a few, have the potential to lead a rotation, maybe not as rookies but soon. Finally, Martin appears to be off to a tough start in Wichita. I wonder if a permanent move away from shortstop might not help him. I like what I saw of him hitting in spring training, but he looked shaky in the field and he's already committed three errors in three games at AA. I realize that errors aren't the be-all and end-all in projecting a player's fielding ability, but the consensus since Martin was acquired was that he wouldn't be a major league shortstop. There doesn't appear to be room for him to play short at the next level and I'm confident his bat is capable to be advanced.

I imagine Celestino will get a start today. He could replace Kepler, Kirilloff or Sano. My guess would be that Kirilloff gets the day off. So far, Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Sano and Kirilloff have combined for two hits in two games. That won't continue.

Rogers (not Rodgers) was traded. Duffey (not Duffy) is now the Twins longest serving relief pitcher. Both have been around long enough to properly spell their last names.

I think this trade shows a lot about the Front Office's philosophy. After the debacles of Addison Reed and Alex Colume, they aren't going to pay market price for relief pitchers. We've also seen a reluctance for long-term deals (most likely why Berrios was traded). After losing the entire starting rotation from Opening Day of 2021 (trades, injury, free agency, ineffectiveness), they have replenished mostly by trading (Gray, Ryan, Paddack) and low-cost bounceback contracts. The bullpen is a work in progress, especially since the pitching staff will need to be trimmed by three from their current total of 16 pitchers. There seems to be a bit of conceit in this approach, that the Twins can make a competitive bullpen and pitching staff out of low-cost pieces. Maybe the front office is right, but color me skeptical.

Joe Smith was born before the Minnesota Twins won a World Series. As for the Union stuff, i dunno. It would appear to be a occupational hazard to be a union rep. Winning helps clubhouse chemistry.

I’m holding you to each and every detail roger.

Hope, sure. Bet the house on it? I won’t. Perhaps a reasonable thought is that some of these guys are closer to their 2019 numbers than 2021. We’ve had a lot of disruptions and strangeness in the last two years.

Who will get DH at-bats? It looks to me like it could be Arraez a fair amount versus right handed starters and Sano and Sanchez against lefties.

Your framing of the question tells me why you're unconvinced. Taylor Rogers was an All-Star because he was in Denver during the All-Star break. I thought there were other years when he could have been considered, but he got his chance last year. You have also decided that the 26-year old Paddack will be no better than reclamation projects Bundy and Archer. It is like a polling firm asking if you wanted to vote for the no-good-so-and-so or their guy. I'm emotionally vested in Taylor Rogers' story and hate to see him traded. He has become a better pitcher than anyone projected and I do believe his absence in the clubhouse will be felt. That said, he wasn't an all-time great and his contribution on the mound can be made up for by the others in the bullpen. I don't know if they will, but it is possible. We are seeing some of the philosophy of Falvey and Levine play out here. They aren't going to play huge dollars for relief pitchers and they aren't going to sign starters long term contracts. I don't know if they're right, but it seems to be how they roll.

I might if people are misspelling his name four years from now.

The Padres don’t need a quarterback, so I’m sure Rodgers is not coming to them in a trade. C’mon people, spelling names isn’t that hard.

Flexibility is a good thing. That the Twins have several guys that they can option to AAA is key especially when they have to cut back to 13 pitchers after May 1. The unfortunate thing is that there are several candidates for promotion from AAA who would have to be added to the (already full) 40-man roster. While I wouldn't wish it on any particular player, disabling injuries happen and if they're severe enough, the player can end up on the 60-day IL opening room on the 40-man roster. I'm tracking transactions throughout baseball and Detroit just placed three players (two pitchers) on the 60-day IL and three more (two pitchers) on the shorter 10-day list. The Twins wouldn't have that much to do if they want to bring someone across the river from St. Paul, but candidates like Smeltzer and Cano would have to be added.

I'll say this again, the contract for Donaldson was a "win now" deal adding another top quartile player to the Bomba squad. The consensus was that the value of the player would probably be greatest in the first two years--Donaldson was 34 in 2020. The Twins got 163 games out of JD and he wasn't 100% for a large portion of those games. Covid and his calves limited him. Will he perform at an All-Star level this year and next? Maybe, but given his age and injury history, it's far from a sure thing. I'm not a huge fan of the Yankee trade, but if it is what they needed to do to clear money for an elite 27-year old shortstop, I can understand.

Great to see Lewis doing well from Game 1. Tell me again, why is he at St. Paul and our #1 prospect (Martin) in AA? I believe Lewis is younger than Martin as well.

Here are some numbers--36, 31, 30, 29. That is the age of the four players exchanged with more than a year's experience in the trades made. Donaldson is 36 and when does a real decline begin? Garver is 31 and playing a demanding position. There are exceptions, but players don't generally get healthier as they age, which leads to decreased production. Urshela may or may not hit like he did in '19-'20, but if he doesn't hit, it provides a place for Arraez' offense. Long-term, Miranda could/should be able to supplant Urshela. Who knows, if Lewis isn't ready, he might be the bridge to a shortstop in 2023.

Two veteran outfielders (Jake Marisnick and Roman Quinn) have been released in the last couple days. Either would be an upgrade from carrying Brent Rooker or Kyle Garlick as a fourth/fifth outfielder. Both have plenty of center field experience and could provide a platoon advantage versus left handed pitching. I'd prefer Marisnick because he has a bit better bat and much more experience in left field, where he could be used as a defensive replacement late in games with Kirilloff moving to first. Marisnick also hit left handed pitching acceptably (.743 OPS last year, .715 OPS for his career). Kepler is a lifetime .632 vs. LH pitching.

As of this moment there are 30 rostered players and 1 non-rostered player in camp for the Twins. Of the rostered players, Jovani Martin has been told he would be optioned to St. Paul and Cory Stashak will stay in Florida and go on the Injured List. That includes 16 pitchers and 13 position players. The non-roster player is Kyle Garlick, who got a year's service time last year as a backup outfielder who was later injured and never returned to the major league active roster. I assume that the Twins will, in fact, carry 16 pitchers and will either sent Garlick directly to St. Paul or DFA someone and demote Brent Rooker. Either way, the squad will have to be down to 13 pitchers four weeks from today. First of all, this is quite a makeover from the squad that opened in Milwaukee just over a year ago. The starting rotation is 100% turned over, and there are four holdovers in the bullpen. There will be a new DH and new starters at catcher, shortstop, third base and left field. If healthy, three of the Twins starting players project to be elite (Correa, Buxton) or well above average (Polanco). Two highly regarded graduates of the Twins' farm system figure to make their first Opening Day starts, two former All-Stars look to rebound as well as two solid performers in past years who fell on hard times in 2021. There are a lot of ifs, but there is a chance that the lineup can be outstanding. The pitching staff features a rotation where Sonny Gray is the best bet to succeed. After him, the next two guys, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, both started last year in the minors. They combined for 17 big league starts (12 by Ober). The other two guys in the rotation as of today are reclamation projects, roughly equivalent to last year's acquisitions of Matt Shoemaker and JA Happ. The bullpen is a mish-mash of proven arms, potential, journeymen, and converted starters who may or may not last beyond May 1. Probably all year the bullpen will be asked to contribute more than four innings per game, making a 13-man staff a necessity for the bulk of the season. Maybe the most encouraging thing about the pitching staff is the talent in the upper minors, both starters and relievers, so that the Twins might be able to weather a rash or injuries or ineffectiveness from the guys currently on the active roster. Most fans who more than casually follow the Twins view the pitching staff with concern (I know I do), but I see several other several other stumbling blocks/question marks that must be hurdled in order for the Twins to have a successful season (make the playoffs and win at least one game). 1) Betting big on unproven talent. Ryan Jeffers played in 85 games last year and compiled almost 300 plate appearances. He did not break the Mendoza Line (.199) and had a puny OPS of .670. The Twins see Jeffers as a better hit-tool version of Mike Zunino, and maybe he will deliver that kind of production. Alex Kirilloff was a Twins' #1 draft choice. He profiles as a fine hitter and excellent defensive first baseman. So far, he's suffered a lot of injuries and only managed about 230 plate appearances for the Twins. It remains to be seen if the wrist he injured earlier, which eventually shut him down for the season will hold up. If so, the Twins think he could be a combination of Will Clark and Mark Grace as a long-term first baseman. High projection--hit like Will Clark, field like Mark Grace. Low (but healthy) projection--hit like Grace, field like Clark. Kirilloff is a work in progress as an outfielder. There's a gamble in counting on either or both of these players for 2022. 2) The Gary Sanchez Problem--Sanchez had fallen out of favor with the Yankees due to his subpar (I'm being kind) defense and falloff at the plate. He profiles similar to Jeffers as a hitter and offers insufficient value as a DH. Sanchez will get an 8-figure salary in arbitration so it is unlikely that he will only be in the lineup once or twice a week. The Twins already have enough DH candidates so Sanchez clogs up that position. Today, the Twins DFAed the third catcher on their 40-man roster, so it is likely that Jeffers and Sanchez will be the only catchers on the club, at least for now. 3) As a roster, the team is long-ball dependent and will strike out a ton. Sano and Sanchez, in particular are noted for high K percentages. Team speed is another issue. Buxton is one of the fastest players in MLB and Nick Gordon's wheels are perhaps his best asset, but beyond that there are a lot of glaciers in the lineup. 4) Too many DHs. Many are calling for Luis Arraez to be the DH a majority of the time in 2022. He is a man without a position, functional at second and short. Miguel Sano has played first base for two seasons, including the COVID year and has shown to be well below average (again, being kind) at the position and, as mentioned earlier, Sanchez figures to get DH at-bats as well. Brent Rooker is another in the mode of Sanchez and Sano--right handed hitter, plus power, low contact, poor defense--giving the Twins far too many guys to stay off the field defensively. I wouldn't be surprised to see another move or two before the team lines up on Opening Day. Adding an outfielder who could hit left handed pitching and play above-average defense in left field would be good. The door is also open for better pitching than the current crew. We will have answers in three days. It's always good when baseball is back.