stringer bell

As of this moment there are 30 rostered players and 1 non-rostered player in camp for the Twins. Of the rostered players, Jovani Martin has been told he would be optioned to St. Paul and Cory Stashak will stay in Florida and go on the Injured List. That includes 16 pitchers and 13 position players. The non-roster player is Kyle Garlick, who got a year's service time last year as a backup outfielder who was later injured and never returned to the major league active roster. I assume that the Twins will, in fact, carry 16 pitchers and will either sent Garlick directly to St. Paul or DFA someone and demote Brent Rooker. Either way, the squad will have to be down to 13 pitchers four weeks from today. First of all, this is quite a makeover from the squad that opened in Milwaukee just over a year ago. The starting rotation is 100% turned over, and there are four holdovers in the bullpen. There will be a new DH and new starters at catcher, shortstop, third base and left field. If healthy, three of the Twins starting players project to be elite (Correa, Buxton) or well above average (Polanco). Two highly regarded graduates of the Twins' farm system figure to make their first Opening Day starts, two former All-Stars look to rebound as well as two solid performers in past years who fell on hard times in 2021. There are a lot of ifs, but there is a chance that the lineup can be outstanding. The pitching staff features a rotation where Sonny Gray is the best bet to succeed. After him, the next two guys, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, both started last year in the minors. They combined for 17 big league starts (12 by Ober). The other two guys in the rotation as of today are reclamation projects, roughly equivalent to last year's acquisitions of Matt Shoemaker and JA Happ. The bullpen is a mish-mash of proven arms, potential, journeymen, and converted starters who may or may not last beyond May 1. Probably all year the bullpen will be asked to contribute more than four innings per game, making a 13-man staff a necessity for the bulk of the season. Maybe the most encouraging thing about the pitching staff is the talent in the upper minors, both starters and relievers, so that the Twins might be able to weather a rash or injuries or ineffectiveness from the guys currently on the active roster. Most fans who more than casually follow the Twins view the pitching staff with concern (I know I do), but I see several other several other stumbling blocks/question marks that must be hurdled in order for the Twins to have a successful season (make the playoffs and win at least one game). 1) Betting big on unproven talent. Ryan Jeffers played in 85 games last year and compiled almost 300 plate appearances. He did not break the Mendoza Line (.199) and had a puny OPS of .670. The Twins see Jeffers as a better hit-tool version of Mike Zunino, and maybe he will deliver that kind of production. Alex Kirilloff was a Twins' #1 draft choice. He profiles as a fine hitter and excellent defensive first baseman. So far, he's suffered a lot of injuries and only managed about 230 plate appearances for the Twins. It remains to be seen if the wrist he injured earlier, which eventually shut him down for the season will hold up. If so, the Twins think he could be a combination of Will Clark and Mark Grace as a long-term first baseman. High projection--hit like Will Clark, field like Mark Grace. Low (but healthy) projection--hit like Grace, field like Clark. Kirilloff is a work in progress as an outfielder. There's a gamble in counting on either or both of these players for 2022. 2) The Gary Sanchez Problem--Sanchez had fallen out of favor with the Yankees due to his subpar (I'm being kind) defense and falloff at the plate. He profiles similar to Jeffers as a hitter and offers insufficient value as a DH. Sanchez will get an 8-figure salary in arbitration so it is unlikely that he will only be in the lineup once or twice a week. The Twins already have enough DH candidates so Sanchez clogs up that position. Today, the Twins DFAed the third catcher on their 40-man roster, so it is likely that Jeffers and Sanchez will be the only catchers on the club, at least for now. 3) As a roster, the team is long-ball dependent and will strike out a ton. Sano and Sanchez, in particular are noted for high K percentages. Team speed is another issue. Buxton is one of the fastest players in MLB and Nick Gordon's wheels are perhaps his best asset, but beyond that there are a lot of glaciers in the lineup. 4) Too many DHs. Many are calling for Luis Arraez to be the DH a majority of the time in 2022. He is a man without a position, functional at second and short. Miguel Sano has played first base for two seasons, including the COVID year and has shown to be well below average (again, being kind) at the position and, as mentioned earlier, Sanchez figures to get DH at-bats as well. Brent Rooker is another in the mode of Sanchez and Sano--right handed hitter, plus power, low contact, poor defense--giving the Twins far too many guys to stay off the field defensively. I wouldn't be surprised to see another move or two before the team lines up on Opening Day. Adding an outfielder who could hit left handed pitching and play above-average defense in left field would be good. The door is also open for better pitching than the current crew. We will have answers in three days. It's always good when baseball is back.

Who says Kepler is uncomfortable in center? I do recall reports that the Twins didn’t want to use him in center after he had leg issues, but he’s had all fall and winter to recover. Tampa isn’t going to give away quality major leaguers and the Twins need for outfield depth seems like it could be alleviated as soon as May or June (Celestino and/or Martin).

Yup, saw this coming. Several catchers have become available in the last week and I expect more to come. Sisco looked as good as any offensively and who knows about the defense? Since Sisco and Godoy both hit lefty, I wouldn’t be surprised if Godoy goes to Wichita if he isn’t claimed.

Well, Smeltzer is a soft-tossing lefty who is on a minor league contract. He was DFAed last fall and no one claimed him. He has been effective , but it is spring training and he had the advantage of reporting with the other minor league players, thus probably being ahead of the hitters. I think his lifetime log and batted ball metrics should present a better forecast of his performance than 11 spring training innings. I think his performance has raised his stock and he’ll get another chance with the Twins, probably this month.

I think the Twins go north with 16(!) pitchers. That would include Coulombe if I have the numbers right as well as both Duran and Winder. Left field would be manned by Kirilloff mostly and Nick Gordon when AK is playing first base. A three man bench would include two catchers, with Sanchez frequently the DH, Gordon and Arraez, although Arraez will get plenty of plate appearances as the DH, at third and filling in occasionally at second.

I don’t think the need for a backup CF is that big an issue. Kepler can fill in for a Buxton day off and pretty soon, maybe a month or so, one of two prospects (Martin or Celestino) could be very good options to back up Buxton and maybe start in left field. For now, I’d like to see a RH hitting OF, capable of playing center, but I don’t think the Twins need to mortgage their future to get such a player. Smeltzer has undoubtedly pitched well this spring, and would appear to be one of the best options for multi-inning relief since none of the Twins’ starters are totally stretched out. A full 40-man roster and a cutback to 13 pitchers on May 2 complicate the picture. I’m sure he’ll get a chance this year.

But, but ……isn’t the question here who iOS the best center fielder right now? I’ll grant that Buxton has miles to go to catch up to Trout’s career and Trout has a +95% chance of having a better career, but I think Buxton has a legitimate chance to supplant Trout as the best position player in 2022. All he has to do is perform like he did last year over the course of a full season (of course something he’s never done).

I don’t think they can properly put Enlow on the 60-day IL. First of all, he’ll likely be ready to pitch within 60 days and I don’t know if you can retroactively place a player on the 60-day list. Secondly, he’d have to be recalled to the major league team and then earn salary and service time.

Garlick, Cave and Rooker (DH) are all in the starting Grapefruit League lineup today.

Adding a non-40-man now equals exposing someone. As Otto has pointed out, the Twins might have already designated someone if they want to add a non-roster guy. They might have also claimed someone, as well. I can’t see Robertson added unless there is an injury. Adding a Smeltzer or Faria now makes sense only if the club is willing to designate someone at the risk of losing them.

I don’t think there will be that many. First of all, it will probably be 95% pitchers. Some injuries will develop at a convenient time, many will have options remaining.

Again, not really sure what you are saying. Yes, if Winder and/or Duran make the team on Opening Day and stay on the major league club all season then they are credited with a full year of service time. If either of both are ineffective in the three plus weeks of a 28-man roster, they would have six additional years of team control.

??? There were plenty of us that knew about Thorpe having no minor league options. I believe most believed he had an inside track on making the team because he was out of options. Thorpe’s 40-man was already taken by Archer.

Brian is right about one thing for sure, who is on the Opening Day roster or lineup isn’t really that important in the larger scheme of things. Quickly now (no cheating!), who was the Opening Day left fielder last year? Who remembers that Ryan LaMarre was on the Opening Day roster in 2019 or Aaron Whitefield in 2020? For those of you who have forgotten, Luis Arraez was the starting left fielder, although he didn’t play left a single inning in that game.

Rooker has two options left. Putting him on the IL doesn’t do much to solve the left field/backup outfielder problem. He can’t be DFAed or optioned while on the IL and adding Cave or Garlick to the active roster (and 40-man) would require someone to be removed from the 40-man roster. If he is deemed healthy, he could be optioned.

Rooker isn’t in the lineup again today. Really hard to justify him making the squad with so little time this spring on top of his underwhelming performance last season.

I also don’t hate on Jake Cave. He plays hard and has had some productive interludes. Last year was wrecked by injury. That said, Cave isn’t a good CF, not horrible, but not a great alternative. He hasn’t hit like a corner OF and the other corner OFs are lefties. He just doesn’t fit with the 2022 Twins. If Kirilloff, Kepler or Larnach were out long term, perhaps there is a spot for him for the duration of the injury.

Word! And I don’t think you’re wrong. Probably the better move is to claim an outfielder who better fits the Twins needs……RH hitter, solid defense, CF capable, hits lefties better than righties and maybe good speed. In this era, defensive replacements are few and far between, but I could see times when replacing Sanó with this type of replacement would benefit the defense at first and left.

I’ve liked what I’ve seen of Faria, but not enough to add him to the roster at the expense of a DFA to another pitcher., especially when the staff will have to be reduced in three weeks. The obvious move is to bring Winder and/or Duran north. If they are deemed not ready, they can be optioned.

Arraez would be a better choice in LF right now. Miranda has minimal experience in the outfield, while Arraez has considerably and grades out as neutral. I suspect the only reason Arraez was taken out of the LF scenarios is his rather fragile leg health.

Garlick and Rooker are not equivalent in the field. I continue to maintain that Rooker has no place on the active roster of the 2022 Twins. Regarding the non-roster pitchers, it doesn’t make sense to risk losing a guy by removing them from the 40-man roster when the guy prompting the move would then be exposed barely three weeks later when the staff is reduced to 13. Unless the club is willing to cut bait with a Stashak or Cotton to keep Smeltzer or Coulombe, both of those guys should be sent to St. Paul.

I really would like to see Sanó get the majority of PAs as the DH. I’d like to see Arraez mostly start at third and Sánchez and Jeffers share catching time 60-40.

Trade Sánchez for “future considerations” , sign Sandy León to back up Jeffers.

Given that no one looks like they will go beyond five innings for the first week or so and also a pretty full slate of games in April, I would bet the team will go with 15 pitchers. I’m pretty certain the club won’t lose a player off the 40-man roster to add a guy for April, who will be DFAed himself in three weeks. So I don’t think they’ll add Smeltzer or Coulombe as the 14th or 15th pitchers on the team. Now that that's out of the way, back to being critical of Brent Rooker. I'm sure he's a nice guy and has a new child and is kind to animals, but I continue to see no value in him being on the 2022 Twins. It is documented that he is a lousy outfielder and he hasn't, to my knowledge, played an inning of first base either in spring training or in a regulation Twins game. He would rank behind Sano and Sanchez as a right handed DH and he has not, through his minor league career or in his 200+ plate appearances in the majors, fared well against left handed pitchers. In addition, in this spring training, he is 0-8 with one walk and four strike outs, and has not played in a week due to injury. The need on the team is for a right handed corner outfielder to spell Kirilloff and Kepler, but I fail to see why Rooker should basically be handed a spot given his pedigree and his skill set. I'd much rather see Garlick in the role, given that he does hit lefties and is acceptable in the outfield. Cave would be a square peg in a round hole.

I'm disappointed for Larnach. He's done well in the spring and appears to be healthy. Regarding the post that Rooker can take over in left field, I'd prefer if Kirilloff played first base and there would be room for a lefty in left field. Whatever. I'd rather have Celestino on the roster than Rooker, but I would think not both will survive the cutdown.