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Dodecahedron

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Everything posted by Dodecahedron

  1. Dodecahedron
    Good call-out, but .294 is still a very good batting average. It's not so good for an OBP.
  2. Dodecahedron
    Right. The temperature is way too high considering we are discussing the #25 and #26 guys on the roster. Even by Twins Territory standards, this is an absurd conversation.
  3. Dodecahedron
    Anyone who did not know that Astudillo is a part of this team has been asleep for a very long time. He is better than a lot of people give him credit for. He has earned everything he has right now. If he struggles this year, he is probably done, so for those who want him to fail, just be patient. For those who want him to succeed, thank you for keeping your eyes open to the possibilities. As for Rooker/Garlick, I won't pretend to know all that much about either of them, SSS and all that. I always felt neither would be better than Rosario, but that's water under the bridge at this point. Rooker will get plenty of opportunities to play this year. The opening day roster literally means nothing when we are talking about 4th outfielders.
  4. Dodecahedron
    Knowing many are skeptical of Dobnak, I was surprised when I came here this morning and saw all positive vibes in this thread. Turns out, I just had to wait a while for the negativity to start. Some things to keep in perspective: 1. This is a team-friendly contract. Dobnak will be very tradeable if things do not work out. 2. Being a bullpen arm is not out of the question. 3. Good knuckleballers get better as they age. If he doesn't get better (heh, as if he has not been good), see above.
  5. Dodecahedron
    Shoemaker is ancient history. Having him start any games, barring someone else being injured, is a waste of time. He is a solid backstop, a solid contingency plan. That's it.
  6. Dodecahedron
    I have an uncontrollable urge to type something like, "Buxton? Injury risk? Fake news! He has never ONCE been injured!" However, I will resist that temptation. I think the question with Buxton is not "Will he be injured" but "How many times will he be injured" and "How many days will he miss due to his injuries?" He is amazing when he is on the field, and the Twins are rather mediocre when he's not out there. When 85 games of Buxton gets you in the playoffs with 100 wins, I'm wondering what 160 games of Buxton would produce. The team was 62-25 in games he played in 2019, a pace of 121 wins. But this doesn't fix the usual problem: 121 wins does not equate to a single win the playoffs.
  7. Dodecahedron
    I have no doubt that you would be surprised. Ron Gardenhire and Terry Ryan both talked about it in the media quite a bit, though. The story is, they decided with about 10 days left in ST, but only told Joe at the end of ST because they didn't want to mess with his head. Obviously news reports this old are hard to find, but if you are truly curious, go for it.
  8. Dodecahedron
    The problem with knowing this for sure is that the metrics are circular. I seem to recall Joe Nathan was a new Twin and was chosen to be the closer based on the job being open and his ST performance. Of course, now we can look at his seasonal stats v. ST stats and see there was a reason for his decent ST numbers that year -- he was a great player. However, his ST performance was a factor in him getting the job. At the same time, we can look at ST v. seasonal stats for all the players who didn't make in the big leagues for very long, and get a great confirmation bias that the the metrics are pointless. I would hope that smart GMs *do* consider ST stats, *but also* other factors. I would be surprised if *any* GM decisions are based on one factor alone. Is ST one of those factors to be considered? Sure, for those players who are "borderline ready" based on other factors. For minor league deals, sure, decisions can be made based on one or two factors, but not for major league work.
  9. Dodecahedron
    OK, but I never made the correlation between their hitting approach and their postseason woes. Honestly, I think the problem is in their heads. Their hitting approach has nothing to do with the streak. The Rams teams in the 70s always fell in the playoffs to the Vikings. The Astros teams in the 90s always fell to the Braves. The Twins have a similar problem with another team -- a team that other teams in the league are able to beat. We also need to level-set a bit on 2020. The Twins were cooked before the playoffs began. We can overthink that and focus on their 2020 playoff losses, but the Twins were done before those games even started. Again, I think the problem there was in their heads, and in 2020's case, who could blame them? The point is -- 100-win seasons are not meaningful. Right now, the only metric that the world at large knows and will remember about the Twins is their playoff losing streak.
  10. Dodecahedron
    Wouldn't we all take two 87-win paces for 2 years and 2 championship rings instead? Zero playoff wins matters. I'm glad the Twins can beat the socks off teams in the two Central divisions, but no one will remember this. Are the Twins trying to go 41 - doughnut? That will be remembered, but aren't they already the most futile team in the history of any sport?
  11. Dodecahedron
    The 2011 team took a dive, but the pitchers over the next few years were far worse. The Twins could survive another 2011, and heck all teams have them, if they don't respond by fielding AAA pitchers and AA defenders for the following 5+ years.
  12. Dodecahedron
    If it is true that the Twins are always "swinging for the fences" while knowing the MLB deadened the ball this year, it's going to be a depressing season. You can bet that a key team in the East is adjusting. Let's see if the Twins can adjust too.
  13. Dodecahedron
    Smeltzer can pitch, but he was always the #6/#7 in training camp this year. It's on him to change the script for next year. Having a terrible spring did not help.
  14. Dodecahedron
    Root Beer is not great, but it can be a good choice when you order a Coke and hear the dreaded, "Is Pepsi OK?" response. Sometimes a Sierra Mist isn't what you are in the mood for, and I am on record as once describing Dr. Pepper as "Dogs--- in a can." Glad to hear that Fox Sports North was renamed. The Chicago area also calls their version Fox Sports North, which caused me more headaches trying to find the right channel than I would be comfortable admitting.
  15. Dodecahedron
    Because we know the MLB is deadening the ball this year, we really have no idea what to expect from any "power" hitters. We can safely predict that many hitters in the MLB will go from studs to duds. Whether or not this includes Cruz, no one knows. Since Sano can hit it into the next county, I'm not too worried about him in this regard. Sano's issue will continue to be making good contact in the first place.
  16. Dodecahedron
    The problem is analyzing bunts in their own bubble. Bunts are almost never designed to produce a run on their own; bunts are a supplementary tool to get more leverage on the bases so that future hitting events have a higher probability of scoring a run. A bunt on its own is useless for increasing the score. But what about a bunt and a single? What about a bunt and a double? Well, you'd have to look at the "Single with a player on 2nd" or "a double with a player on second" charts to know the answer. However, how the baserunner got on second in the first place matters.
  17. Dodecahedron
    I did not say anything about Minnesota. I'm talking about pitchers whose bodies broke down with a variety of unrelated injuries.
  18. Dodecahedron
    Santana had a comedy of injuries. Pecs Shoulder Shoulder again Achilles tendon Toe infection
  19. Dodecahedron
    I meant the other Santana.
  20. Dodecahedron
    A certain east coast team fielded playoff teams in the last two full seasons ('18 and '19) without having a starting pitching staff that performed any better than the Twins will this year. (Not counting '20, SSS). We are too worried about the starting pitching. We should be worried about the bullpen.
  21. Dodecahedron
    The "bad luck" injuries are concerning to me. Santana, Pavano, Baker had streaks of "bad luck" which ended up being indicative of their bodies being done. Odorizzi's issues seem too familiar to me. Small sample size, sure, but if I were a GM, I would let someone else take on the risk.
  22. Dodecahedron
    I'm not against shifting, but I'm against position players bringing index cards with them to the field. Pitchers are not allowed to have a rolodex of a hitter's weaknesses with them. Only certain data is allowed in the dugout for managers to use. I have never before seen position players bringing anything onto the field other than a glove. If players can memorize where to stand to beat a certain hitter, great. If the dugout can coordinate where they want everyone to stand, great. The cheat sheets gotta go, and I'm surprised the league hasn't acted on this already.
  23. Dodecahedron
    A low BABIP suggests he could be a better hitter. As someone else said, his numbers are where they are because he swings for the fences. What will happen to Kepler when the ball is deadened, as will be the case this year? Can a player ever be "clutch" if he can't control where he hits the ball? Some players had poor BABIPs and productive careers, true. If I were running a team, I'm not sure I would be too comfortable about betting on someone being one of those exceptions, especially not if the player's performance is so close to the median anyway. Billy Beane had some success scrounging around for cheap, high-BABIP and high-OBP players back in the day. Sure, the game has changed since, but this will become important again when the balls stop being juiced.
  24. Dodecahedron
    If Kepler were as good as those other players, I imagine you would worry about him too.
  25. Dodecahedron
    We can theorize all we want, but Brock posted a link that has the data. You can sort this by two columns, pitchers used/game and time/game. The two data points match up almost exactly, and not just recently -- throughout baseball history. I would add that the when 100% of games became televised in the 1980s, ~10 minutes were added right to the top. I would argue that TV has slowly added more advertising as the years went on, most likely grabbing more time during pitching changes. We focus on pitch clocks in these conversations, but that's not the issue. Thus, it won't fix the issue. It's worth noting that last year's rules to call some games before 9 innings and force pitchers to face three batters made no difference. It we want a pitch clock, it should be to limit the number of warmup pitches a relief pitcher gets on the mound. I don't know how much time it takes them to throw the dozen or so pitches they are allotted now, but if it's more than 2-3 minutes, let's start there. Nine times out of ten, the pitcher has been tossing for half an inning before they come in the game anyway. Or, we can stop timing the games and not worry about it. Attendance is high. Payroll is high. Income is high. Television contracts are high. Why do we really care? Who is being hurt by baseball games lasting 3 hours instead of 2 hours and 50 minutes?
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