ashbury

Yes, and more the point, we have someone to step in for Dozier if he is traded (Polanco, with Escobar returning to starter's duty at SS). Debatable dropoff, unless you believe Dozier is at a new permanent plateau in performance (in which case Polanco is the trade bait), in return for some appreciable help at a position of need. Who is the equivalent, ready to step in with minimal dropoff, if Santana is traded? That's the crux. A team would need to knock me over with an offer for Santana, and no GM is going to do that.

You can do that to fill four of the spots I named in my so-called plan. I applaud Ryan's ability to do that. It can't be plan A, for the three critical spots on the relief staff. And that's how it's worked out, too many years. We've had Perk, and then, uh, er, ummm... guys.

An ideal pennant winning pitching staff these days needs three guys who can shut down the opposition in innings 7, 8, and 9. You then want a Loogy and a Roogy for tactical purposes - guys who might not be effective against all batters but have their uses, including mopup. And you need a couple of guys who can go for longer stints and hopefully keep it close - if your starter makes it through the fifth, you can use one in the sixth if need be. With 5 starters, that's a 12-man staff; sometimes teams dabble with 13 but I'm not going to plan on that. Based on that, I'd assign roles as follows Closer - (we don't have anybody) 8th - Chargois 7th - Duffey ROOGY - (I don't know) LOOGY - O'Rourke Long man 1 - Rogers (could be the LOOGY too, but he is a recent starter) Long man 2 - (I don't know) And that's it. The cupboard is pretty bare for the new PBO/GM, unless or until the new wave of prospects is ready. Notes: I have May in my starting rotation so that's why he's not here.I'm not counting one iota on Perk and Hughesie.Kintzler is just a guy - his ERA is good but his peripherals aren't, and for a righty he isn't that good against righties, so I have trouble saying what his role is on a good team.Pressly has the same issue against righties, and he's just basically so hittable, that at this point in his career he's becoming roster filler.Tonkin is a disappointment.I can't see a role for Milone either as a starter or a reliever.Boshers, Darnell, Dean, Albers, all are filler, or less.I'm assuming Light has minor league options, and I'd stash him at AAA. (Edit: ditto Wimmers, Melotakis - and Landa and Rosario somewhere below.) None of the guys currently not yet on the 40-man strike me as ready to kick the door in for entry, quite yet. Again, I'm talking about a staff for a good team. The 2017 Twins won't be good, so I don't basically care if any of these current pitchers I'm dismissing are retained for another year - and relievers are always capable of putting together a surprise season and looking good, so let them try, and we can reevaluate a year from now. I'm frustrated, borderline depressed on this topic, and like I said, the new PBO/GM really have their work cut out for them to make anything out of this shambles. Nobody but Chargois and maybe Duffey would be worth anything in trade, and for good reason, so it's not like a wheeler-dealer could make something happen from the existing pieces. Maaaaybe, a different pitching coach can make something out of a couple of the pieces I am dismissing, such as Pressly or Tonkin. If this is a classroom, I get an Incomplete. I realize this isn't a plan. It's a surrender.

My assumption when the trade was made was that we would benefit by non-tendering him in the off-season. Combine that money with other funds from other releases and non-signings. Now, I'm less sure. Where can the money be better deployed this off-season?

I think the main constraint is that when you send a guy down, you can't recall him for a certain number of days. Ten, maybe? Not every pitcher has minor league options remaining, either. If you factor in injuries as well, it means you need a very lengthy list of MLB ready pitchers on the 40-man, and the additional padding will be even more Albers types than we have now. (If you had someone better, you wouldn't be in this pickle in the first place.) The GM will find the roster-juggling a very great challenge, and you'll have even more innings in which pitchers are overmatched by major league hitters. I am all for outside the box thinking. Good luck to the GM who attempts this one, though.

Or, he's a damaged player, who bounced back to have his career year in 2015 and will not reach even that level of averageness again. I'm no doctor, but his good-Gibby bad-Gibby track record suggests to me he has lingering intermittent finger numbness, post-TJ surgery, even after all this time (or more acute again through further wear and tear). Or pick a different theory, but the good-Gibby bad-Gibby pattern has me no longer ready to count on him whatsoever, and I doubt you could get anything decent in trade so I really don't know what to do with him except keep him in the mix as a fifth starter candidate. The entire 2017 plan for the rotation laid out in this thread frustrates the heck out of me, with the state that our pitching options have come down to. May and Santana, and pray for mañana. I really hope the new PBO and GM have some magic up their sleeves that will make the present discussion so moot that we'll all be laughing six months from now. Yep. I'm down to hoping for magic.

Bad game. I may need to depart soon to take part in something more pleasant, such as filing down my own teeth.

Sorry if I was being a bit of an ash about it.

And please don't hector Santiago while he's pitching, while we're at it.

Even with his 2B-only time at Rochester this season, Polanco has far more innings at SS than 2B in his minor league career.

Turns out, the secret was price. I had been paying too little, and mistakenly thought it was just an aversion.

What, your life?

I recently discovered, to my pleasant surprise, that I finally can again.

The word is Bidet, spelled just like it's pronounced, and I have no idea why you think Brian would want one.

My three grown children totally surprised me on my birthday a couple years ago, by coming up from their individual distant starting points, and we "ran into them" at a certain turn on a familiar trail at Tahoe, which my usually-non-hiking wife (she's more of a distance bicyclist) talked me into going with her as a birthday outing for the two of us. I totally did not catch on what was going on, even as one of the kids got delayed and my wife started stalling about when we would leave the house.

Have an awsumb birthday, Bri!

For a guy who I don't recall embracing some of the more modern defensive stats, you sure did a fine job articulating the ideas behind some of the more modern defensive stats. / aaaaand... I think I have to suggest we take a tangent about defensive stats to a different or new thread. // ditto for Derek "Pasta Diving" Jeter

He's been playing and prepping at shortstop his entire young career, except for a three month stretch at Rochester this summer. He's still young enough for further growth, but this idea that all he needs is reps at the 6 is contrary to the record. BTW, fielding percentage may shine a light on certain kinds of mistakes the official scorer is allowed to flag, but isn't how to judge a defender.

Without bothering to check I have to believe most teams have power hitting 1B/DH prospects, so I am not optimistic he would be anything to build a trade around. We can give him away if some other team thinks he's the final piece to some bigger trade. He doesn't strike me as having a great chance at a MLB career, but of course you never know. Just from looking at stats alone, I am glad to see he's a 12th rounder, because those picks always are lottery tickets at best. I would not put much too stock into a major change in a batter's swing, until a year or so passes and it turns out that opposing pitchers have not found a counter-measure. Here's hoping for the best, for his sake and for the franchise's.

Until 2016 he played more SS than 2B in the minors. Even with 2016 the ratio is still toward SS. If they concluded anything about him at SS, it was from watching him try to play it for six seasons. Granting that the farther back one goes, the more one should discount whatever was seen, I still dislike the narrative that the Twins force-fed him at 2B and ignored the potential value of developing a good-stick shortstop. They tried. And he doesn't pass the eye test for me; maybe further development and improvement is possible, that is the real art of evaluation of young'uns.

Until 2016 he played more SS than 2B in the minors. Even with 2016 the ratio is still toward SS. 2015 counts as "recent", and he played 83 games at SS with Chattanooga, and only 8 at 2B; in Rochester he played no innings at 2B at all. If they concluded anything about him at SS, it was from watching him try to play it for six seasons, 2010-15. Granting that the farther back one goes, the more one should discount whatever was seen, and basically throw out age 16 and 17, I still dislike the narrative that the Twins abandoned him to 2B and ignored the potential value of developing a good-stick shortstop. Everyone recognizes the value of that, and IMO they tried. And he doesn't pass the eye test for me. Maybe further development and improvement is possible at his age - that is the real art of evaluation of young'uns, and I'm just a patzer. My interpretation of 2016 in Rochester: the brain trust said, we think he slots in better at 2B - let's find out if he's actually consistent there, instead of guessing and assuming, by playing him every day and letting him get comfortable. Nothing wrong with that IMO. And then Dozier crossed them up with a career year on a dismal team.

I haven't watched Polanco so many times as to be an expert, but the random sample of times he's played for my viewing pleasure has me pegging him as decent range with a sub-par arm for SS. People say he should work on strengthening the arm - like, that hasn't already been tried? If on a 1-to-10 scale for major league SS defense, where 5 is average (meaning damn good among all humans) and 1 means most players because they just can't play the position, I'd put Escobar at about a 4 and Polanco a 3. Escobar's fine as a utility player but a mild liability as a SS starter; Polanco a bit more so. But on a similar scale for SS offense, where 5 is again average (and below par for any other position on the field), Escobar's about a 6 and Polanco looks like potential to be an 8. He won't be in ARod territory (who else is?), but he could eventually deliver .300+ BA year after year, with a little pop and hopefully an improving walk rate as he gets experience. He could win Silver Slugger for his position some years. He's not a maybe, like Florimon was. You kind of have to keep him unless some GM knocks you over with a starting pitcher offer. Polanco needs to play 2B but is blocked. For a last place team, it's not the end of the world to stash Polanco at SS rather than trade him for less than full value. That doesn't mean he's a SS, long term. Actually, I suspect Dozier at SS and Polanco at 2B would be marginally stronger defensively, but that's not going to happen, for reasons of clubhouse chemistry and so forth; you may wish otherwise, but teams just don't move veterans very often. Long term, Dozier will eventually depart. I think right now it's just not expedient to trade Dozier, for business reasons, due to this late HR outburst; I expect fans' valuation of our second baseman has increased far more than competing GM's valuation has. That's why this dilemma is even up for discussion, and IMO will continue into 2017 if not all the way through it.

I don't know. Show us some video of how you throw your changeup.

My deep analysis: it HAD to be something like that. You're welcome.

Oklahoma? Scientists? I think my brain jus' asplode. http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i212/Kerrah_photos/Exploding-head.gif