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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    You're right, I didn't address it directly, but I guess implicitly don't see it as as big a differentiator as you do. IMO the elbow, shoulder, and labrum are equal-opportunity tormentors.
  2. ashbury
    Except, the opportunity cost of tying up the money this way is high, if he does become that 5.0 WAR pitcher but then gets injured before the FA years would have kicked in. It's money that couldn't be spent, say, acquiring an additional high-end starter. I'm not saying the risk is intolerable. Just that your form of analysis strikes me as very incomplete.
  3. ashbury
    My snap reaction is that $46M/7 is a deal both sides say no to. From the Twins side, it is taking on a lot of risk for not a lot of upside during the FA years that are bought out. From the player's side, the ceiling for earnings during this long window is just too high to sell out at such price. If both sides find fault with the deal, it may mean it's somewhere close to economically "fair", but that doesn't mean an agreement can be struck.
  4. ashbury
    (... after having it, ahem, spelled out for me.)
  5. ashbury
    While I agree that closing out the ninth inning has been somewhat overrated through the years, it's not nothing. Pitchers are not ordinarily thrown into the ninth at random, therefore what you are seeing is a combination of ability and the manager's attempt to choose the right guy for the role. It's a bit of a circular argument. Moreover, not every attempt works. Ron Davis would be an example of Good Reliever != Fine Closer. (Granted that Davis was a better closer than he's sometimes given credit for. But you don't want your closer weeping in the locker room after another tough loss.)
  6. ashbury
    Boston radio this morning calls it a broken tibia. Ankle, leg bone. Potato, potahto. (Harvard, Hahvahd.) Either way the ankle hurts like hell and probably will be surgically repaired ASAP.
  7. ashbury
    Not sure what Cliff Lee has to do with 1983-97. Some highly-presentable teams were put on the field, including that phantom championship team of 1994 due to the strike. Top-half performance on the field many years, bottom-half attendance consistently. They did not have a long run of losing seasons until the late 90s. I agree we should not to judge the city once the bottom fell out with the team. You and I have different ideas on what makes a good baseball town.
  8. ashbury
    I'm completely OK with going against the standard run expectancy tables. They are just broad averages over the course of seasons, with all kinds of batter-pitcher matchups and baserunner speeds and so forth. But I want such data to be ignored when it's replaced by better and more specific data. I think in some cases Molitor's capable of doing the equivalent of that, through long experience. But I can't say that this article convinces me it's what's happening enough of the time. And Gimenez's contribution to the discussion shows that he doesn't realize the run-scoring tables would already take into account the effects he is looking for. To the extent it indicates he and Molitor are on the same page, it's disheartening.
  9. ashbury
    1) After 1983, they were generally near the bottom of the league in attendance. 2) Didn't the owners get the Marlins, and the league took over the team for a while? So it wasn't just one capricious ownership group.
  10. ashbury
    JFK's thoughts concerning Pittsburgh apparently were unprintable because I didn't find any. There's a large clump of people in the NE sector. It's possible the area is underrepresented. There's been talk of putting a third NY team at Coney Island in Brooklyn, for example.
  11. ashbury
    The deal outlined here may be favorable to the Twins, in terms of expected value and all that. They're the team, and are in a position to spread out risk among multiple players. But from the player's POV, getting your risk bought out has some real value. You have just one career. Buxton's signing bonus, minus taxes and agent fees and other costs, probably set him up for a middle-class lifestyle, to raise his family, and for the rest of his life. But a deal like being proposed here lets him, for example, endow a charitable foundation in his name that can disburse a couple million a year or more perpetually, if that's how his mind works - not to mention upgrading the lifestyle a little further. That kind of certainty isn't nothing. $76.5M may be a little light, but not ridiculously so. It shouldn't take $100M for the 7 years.
  12. ashbury
    It's hard to place Washington. President Kennedy liked to say that it was a city of Northern charm and Southern efficiency
  13. ashbury
    Not finding a Don't Like button, I clicked Like.
  14. ashbury
    I would be happy if merely the people who have GM jobs realize how just good Dozier has been, and make a commensurate trade offer. This is exactly what didn't happen last off-season. If Gordon's ready and Polanco slides over, the Twins are a better team with the return Dozier would bring, hopefully pitching of course. Let the next team decide the terms of the contract extension.
  15. ashbury
    Yeah, you're right. I was looking for a (quasi-)analytic way to cross-check what my eye tells me, but trade value is too bound up in future value too. And I don't know how to imagine what a GM would "pay" for just one season in isolation, of Dozier versus Buxton versus everyone else, so never mind about that at all.
  16. ashbury
    The team's results during Buxton's time out of the lineup might be an argument in his favor.
  17. ashbury
    I don't have an exact definition of "Valuable" either, but for me it comes down to a couple of things. Who was most indispensible this year? Who would get the most interest from other GMs if you offered a trade? Either definition of valuable leads me to Buxton, with Santana a respectable second.
  18. ashbury
    Stew Thornley is not an MLB ump, of course, but he checked the case book for me and "there is stuff on appealing a half swing but nothing on what a half swing is. So the best answer is, "I know it when I see it,"
  19. ashbury
    I don't think anyone was making this the goal or standard. You're probably familiar with the concept of an S-shaped curve. The disagreement seems mainly about where we each see Buxton on that curve, with regard to bodily risk versus accomplishment. My own opinion is dialing back just a little, an inch or so to the left on that curve, ought to be possible without losing too much. I'm with you about respecting the game. I've shouted variations on that phrase (to the chagrin of whoever I brought to the game) at minor leaguers who I thought were loafing on defense in some respect. I don't want Buxton to become timid. But it's called a Warning Track for a reason, and established players may have differing opinions on how one deals with it. The suggestion for Torii to have a conversation with Byron probably is redundant, but is for me on the right (ahem) track.
  20. ashbury
    Trauma includes things like concussions, torn ligaments, and even internal organ damage. Injuries can be recovered from, until one day they can't. And with some injuries, there is a cumulative effect.
  21. ashbury
    Fun question. Closest I can come is (2017 version) "Rule 8.02[c] Comment". It makes repeated use of the term "half swing". This term shows up nowhere else in the rules. Lacking any specific definition, common sense would tell me that a line perpendicular to the batter should be imagined, and if the bat goes beyond this, then it's a swing. Since the batter normally is squared away and is astride the plate, this would have the bat cross no more than half the plate. But if the stance is different, the bat might cross or not cross the plate at the halfway point.
  22. ashbury
    That wasn't even a shot. It was an outlet pass. He thought he saw his shooting guard seated in the eighth row for an uncontested midrange jumper.
  23. ashbury
    5. Personal to Chief: Were you born cranky, or did you have to work at it? (Expecting the reply from him to be "yes.")
  24. ashbury
    Not that anyone asked, but in the past day or so I posted in these Twins Daily threads... Who, besides Robbie Grossman himself, deserves credit for Grossman's improved defensive stats in the outfield, as well as improvement in the eye-test according to yours truly? My general recollection has been less wandering about in search of fly balls. If Jeff Pickler is in charge of coaching the outfielders, kudos to him. Now, about Buxton banging repeatedly into center field walls... On a post-season broadcast, Matt Vasgersian reportedly opined that managers should not be allowed to add check-swings as another call that can be appealed. I agree. When the automated strike zone becomes a reality, the cameras presumably will be able to track the bat head's progress (or lack) across the plate area. Until that day, stopping the game for such appeals is not a good investment of time. Sheesh, Jacque Jones. That's how you treat someone you were close to? To paraphrase another's wisdom, can't we all just get along? If surgery is needed for Sano's aching leg, I'd vote for proceeding ASAP. While caution is medically advisable, it's also likely that his conditioning regimen is suffering at present.
  25. ashbury
    Who on the coaching staff works with outfielders on their routes and so forth?
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