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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    I didn't bring up Wilson in the first place. But, someone did try to suggest that a manager might try to defeat the Opener strategy by moving a stud hitter down in the lineup. That would come at the expense of one or more lesser hitters being elevated to additional plate appearances over the course of a season, however often this strategy was attempted. Wilson serves, for discussion purposes - other choices would be merely less bad.
  2. ashbury
    Normal lineup: if Bobby Wilson makes the final out of the game, say in his fourth PA, then Eddie Rosario had four PA too. If it was Bobby's fifth, Eddie got five too. Nothing the manager can help. Rosario batting anywhere below Wilson to confound the Opener Strategy: if Bobby Wilson makes the final out, Eddie Rosario had one fewer chance. That's the manager outsmarting himself.
  3. ashbury
    If, absent a fancy starting pitcher strategy I come up with, the opposing manager would have constructed an "optimal" batting lineup, then any deviation he comes up with counts as being in my favor. I'd love it if Mike Trout batted 5th in some futile attempt to outsmart my manager - it means fewer plate appearances for him in the long run. So I don't care if counter-measures erode an advantage my strategy otherwise creates. I feel as though I'm still coming out ahead, of not doing it. This is somewhat separate from the question of whether the Opener concept is even sound and does in fact confer an advantage.
  4. ashbury
    It may not work all that much more often, I mean on top of what the standard strategy would produce. It's not going to be a 10-WAR boost. All you can do is put your players in a position to succeed. They still have to succeed. If your "starter" achieves average looking results against a lineup stacked toward the bottom half, maybe that not average, and is not success, and is on him.
  5. ashbury
    I think what motivates the strategy isn't "what's best for Kohl Stewart?" nor "what's best for Jose Berrios?", but "what's the best way to handle the top of the opponent's lineup?" Facing batters a third time seems to be a defining mark for a multi-innings pitcher. If Berrios at a disadvantage the third time through is still better than a lesser pitcher who is fresh, then let him pitch inning #1. If Stewart needs all the help he can get, at this stage of his career perhaps, then let a specialist try to pave the way for him.
  6. ashbury
    If you want to make an issue of the Opener versus Starter topic, let me point out that this game worked almost perfectly as a way to squeeze an extra inning out of a nominal starter. Moya pitched the first inning, then Stewart came in and faced the #5 batter in the lineup to start the second inning. He faced the lineup twice, then saw the #5 through #9 batters a third time. That #9 batter made the third out of the seventh inning. So Kohl Stewart achieved his first 6-inning appearance in the majors. You need more than one game to prove anything, and you need a better opponent than the 2018 Tiggers. I'm skeptical that games can be routinely choreographed to this level of detail. But, if someone asks you what the idea is behind the Opener strategy, this game is the example you might point to.
  7. ashbury
    I watched Austin make catches on 3 foul popups in 2 innings, at that one game in Pawtucket a few weeks ago. Of course at a AAA park there isn't a pit in foul territory to watch out for.
  8. ashbury
    Recognizing that players are not the same as their stats on the back of their baseball card, and they have good games and bad games, is a step up. But I think it's also true with pitchers that they don't necessarily/always have their best stuff when they face their first batter or two or three... think of the many solid starters who have a reputation for "you'd better get him early". Similarly you sometimes watch a reliever struggle for a batter or two, and then find himself. Of course most relievers don't have the luxury of getting a full inning to get squared away. But it's still as much an art as a science. I'm not a Hildenberger apologist by any means, nor a big fan of the Closer role. But I don't think it's automatically a black mark against the dugout braintrust to leave him in, if they feel he's starting to find his feel for pitches. Of course, they can be wrong - it's a competition between batter and pitcher.
  9. ashbury
    I'm not who you were asking for an opinion, but I'll mention that when I took a look at the two pitchers, I was surprised to notice that Vasquez is actually the older of the two, by more than a year. Both have minor league options remaining, so that won't dictate much of anything either. Moya might have a little more room for growth while Vasquez might be close to "what you see is what you get" - that's an awfully fine distinction regarding a little more than a year's difference in age, but it's the reverse of what I had thought to be the case. In his short time in the majors, Vasquez has actually done more poorly against lefty batters than righties. It's still ultra-small sample size, but that could make the decision for management moreso than other procedural considerations if they want lefty arms for LOOGY purposes. At AAA he's been very good against lefties, of course.
  10. ashbury
    Astudillo is a BASEBALL PLAYER. I didn't watch the game last night, so I missed some good stuff from Willians. In addition to the short clip shown above, have a look at this clip. https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/09/15/2487371583/1536981095160/asset_1800K.mp4 Also, watch all the way through, if you want some insight into "team chemistry". Escobar used to clown around with pretending to have feuds with teammates - Astudillo and Berrios are continuing that tradition. It's not my cup of tea for interacting with others, but I can see it being a positive for our guys.
  11. ashbury
    It happens that ashburysteven and I were in KC on July 21-22, but we were there to watch the Twins play the Royals, so we didn't think to explore anything about the 'Bones.
  12. ashbury
    I did not realize the T-Bones were in Kansas state. Makes sense now that it's pointed out - very analogous to Minneapolis and St Paul. Hope the Saints fare better in the KC Metro Area than the Twins did last night.
  13. ashbury
    Moderator's note: Reminder, this is not a thread to conduct a full review of the state of the Twins organization, and it's never OK to call anything "idiotic". If Chris Gimenez's views on leadership don't interest you, perhaps move to a thread you find of more value.
  14. ashbury
    If the "Opener" concept catches on, that record will be toast.
  15. ashbury
    Not on good teams.
  16. ashbury
    Yes. Who's on first trimester.
  17. ashbury
    Southern League Flags Fly Forever.
  18. ashbury
    To me, the way to evaluate such a draft is say that after pick #1, you are in essence drafting at the bottom of the order with the successful teams like the Cubs. Set that #1 pick aside and judge compared to those teams. It's still way early but I think in that light, the 2017 draft looks OK.
  19. ashbury
    His first walk-off! Oh wait, wrong thread. Anyway, I can tell you're a good dad. Raising him right.
  20. ashbury
    ... which nobody expected! ("Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency.... Our *three* weapons are fear, and surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope")
  21. ashbury
    If this is still in response to my stated hope for specifics down in the minors, I don't expect anyone in the organization to say anything, either. This thread is in response to an outsider's view of things; I'm hoping that someone closely observing one or more minor league teams has noticed some trends.
  22. ashbury
    It's something to build on, although the Southern League is a much tougher summit to scale.
  23. ashbury
    Well of course I'm hoping for results too. The process doesn't seem meaningless to me.
  24. ashbury
    I'm hoping for some specifics at some point, though.
  25. ashbury
    Yeah, I had to look them up this morning - top 40ish, pre-season ranking. Not a pushover team, apparently. I'd still prefer a more convincing win before getting too excited, but a win's a win at this stage.
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