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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Your wont. * I'm being that guy again - you're welcome.
  2. ashbury
    Mrs Cranfill in fourth grade was pretty adamant that zero divided by zero was undefined - it could be anything therefore you couldn't choose any particular one as the answer. I found the uncertainty deeply unsatisfying. When I got to high school I found out that she had it right. Vasquez hit a batter and issued two walks. No hits, no AB, so his SLG isn't infinity. It's just undefined.
  3. ashbury
    WHIP involves hits and walks, so it corresponds to the OBP part of OPS. What it doesn't include is power hitting, so it tells only part of the story. But the OBP part is pretty important - "is he recording outs?" - so WHIP is good. Of course any stats are going to be affected by the manager's usage, e.g. whether the pitcher is trusted to face the heart of the opponent's order. I'd never recommend relying on just one stat. But ERA for a reliever ranks pretty low for me on what to look at.
  4. ashbury
    For batters, OPS has supplanted Batting Average as a quick-and-dirty way of seeing how someone's season is going. For relief pitchers, I'm surprised it hasn't also supplanted ERA, since the way earned runs are counted is so eccentric when partial innings are a large part of the landscape. But you're right about Morin and Harper, who have OPS-against of .357 and .482 respectively (none of these stats include this afternoon's game). It's still small-sample terrain, especially for Morin, but so far, they have succeeded beyond expectations. Magill's OPS-against is a less-impressive .707 and Duffey's is .720. Better than league-average, but their ERAs probably overstate their effectiveness. Hildenberger's OPS is .895, which would be a fine result for any slugger outside of a very select few. Mejia's is at .837, definitely below par. De Jong's is a silly 1.667, and Vazquez's can't even be calculated since he didn't record any outs. So their OPS conform to our intuitions about what they've accomplished. Blake Parker is quietly distinguishing himself, with a .510 OPS. More surprisingly, at least to me, is Trevor May with .529 - the hits he gives up are just so ill-timed, and usually that evens out during a season. To me, quick-and-dirty OPS tells you more about how the pitcher is succeeding in getting batters out, without the need to delve into inherited runners being dealt with by the next reliever that ERA calls into question.
  5. ashbury
    Agreed, and I guess I was trying to further spoil his mood by indicating that a trip to just the 10-day wasn't an indication of good news.
  6. ashbury
    The 60-day IL doesn't necessarily get used when an injury is serious. Only if the team needs the use of that 40-man roster spot. When the 60 days are up, they then could have a roster decision to make, as to whom to DFA or whatever, in order to re-activate Garver, so I don't know if they make the move lightly, right now. Only if they want someone on the 25-man roster who isn't currently on the 40-man; that could well be a pitcher, but they also may prefer to leave room for Telis or other AAA catcher in case of a 10-day injury to someone, but not commit to that as yet.
  7. ashbury
    You might hold some kind of site record for longest time between posts. Don't be a stranger.
  8. ashbury
    Thanks for being that guy, so I didn't have to. I bite my tongue pretty much every time I see it.
  9. ashbury
    Yes. This is key. (The other points you raised are also valid.) In the early part of the game, you don't really have much idea how many runs you need. So don't do things that reduce the average number of runs. Late in the game when it's close, you have a better idea of the value of one solitary run. Then you do things that increase the chance of scoring anything at all. Unless I missed something, the tables in the linked article were for average numbers of runs. "We’ll touch on run expectancy and bunting today, and cover probability another day." Someone needs to go find that other article.
  10. ashbury
    Is there a corresponding move, or will they keep three catchers at AA?
  11. ashbury
    Releasing him, letting him sign as a minor-league free-agent with whomever he pleased, would also have accomplished this. Do the Dodgers still need cash?
  12. ashbury
    Presumably trapezius, a muscle in the upper back.
  13. ashbury
    Looks like Victor Hugo's adage needs to be updated to reflect current longevity charts: 60 is the youth of old age, while 40 is still the old age of youth.
  14. ashbury
    Not to mention that most pitchers are constantly tinkering, so that by now Gardy's/Andy's direct knowledge amounts to "I think he still drops down."
  15. ashbury
    Maybe RandBall's Stu wants to take a crack at writing a game wrap-up. "The Red Wings' game today wound up with a score of 6-4. Several of their players had plate appearances, and quite a few pitchers tried their luck. Read on, to not find out whether they won and who their opponent was."
  16. ashbury
    Sorry, that's on a Need To Know basis only. / You needed to know, so I'm sure you looked it up already, and learned it was Andreoli.
  17. ashbury
    Besides that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?
  18. ashbury
    It's been a good season. I used baseball-reference.com to locate all major league catchers with at least 50 plate appearances, who have played at least half their games at Catcher. Mitch's OPS of 1.223 coming into today's game is tops. Of all time.
  19. ashbury
    The last I knew, I was responding to a sub-tangent about Chase De Ball. But these conversations do meander...
  20. ashbury
    ... until they are DFA, off of the 40-man, and assigned outright.
  21. ashbury
    In other news, we have had 15 multi-HR games so far this season.
  22. ashbury
    Maybe the medical diagnosis will turn out to be Forgot-Howtopitchitis but I'd want to rule out an undisclosed ailment before giving up on him.
  23. ashbury
    Rochester's runs-against average is a full run worse than the league average, so I don't think you can gloss over the troubles quite as easily as that. But it does suggest caution with interpreting batters' numbers, for instance Randy Cesar's .859 OPS needs to be scaled back quite steeply if you want to extrapolate to what he might do if called up. Gordon's start looks good, but only Raley's record stands out to me, early in this season.
  24. ashbury
    Just going by heights and weights Malone seems like he has a good build, 6'3" 205 lbs. Thompson seems kind of skinny, and Manoah looks already pretty heavy. But opting for the high school guy is always the riskier choice, as we've seen. So, while I prefer a pitcher, none of these seems ideal. The two shortstops seem fine, with Stott being a little tall for the position at 6'3", but certainly there have been good ones at that height. The younger one isn't enough better to justify the age-risk, to my mind. Busch's lack of a good defensive reputation means his bat needs to be off the charts, and I'm not sure that's really the book on him. Langeliers is intriguing at catcher. While we have a few good guys in the pipeline, I'm not sure it's ever a problem to have too many. But I've expounded at length on why I would resist ever again taking a catcher with a first round pick, and I'll leave it at that. Misner doesn't seem like he excels in any particular area, nor does he have a particular weakness. I don't see a compelling choice among these, but I guess I'd take the SS Stott, or the pitcher Manoah.
  25. ashbury
    He had a couple of very good September games in a row, but lacked a signature third one that our guy Martin has given us. It's true, that September (actually very late August also) was Ricky's high-water mark as a Twin. Good times.
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