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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    In the early days of the game, basemen were required to be standing on their respective bases when the pitch was made. The SS was viewed as kind of a rover. We traditionalists might advocate going back to that. I applaud the historical POV but Keeler faced 70 MPH fastballs so the art of hitting may have changed juuuust a tad. Going with the pitch is one thing now, but trying to go the other way when the pitcher and defense are on the same page is a bit harder than when Wee Willie was a Highlander. Anyway, I'm not too much in favor of trying to outlaw shifts in baseball, as I think it will wind up like when the NBA tried to keep the zone defense illegal - everyone was pushing the boundary of legality, with lots of borderline calls by the refs.
  2. ashbury
    He earned his money, and we thank him for his contributions, but it's time to part ways.
  3. ashbury
    Fun watching him in pregame infield practice, taking grounders at shortstop. He would not have made a good major league SS. But he was nimble for a big man. And he would take the extra base when it was a close decision and rarely get thrown out. So, concur: he was a ballplayer, not just a slugger.
  4. ashbury
    Besides pitching, the other three line up nicely with the classic Five Tools for a position player. Throwing is way down on most everybody's list, but would you not put hitting for average in that list of ingredients? How about the elusive sixth tool of batting eye? Me, I have always thought that contact is the one must-have tool. Maybe must-have doesn't correlate with postseason success, but I would probably not put it any lower than just behind power, for what separates the elite teams.
  5. ashbury
    In the analysis-synthesis paradigm, you just cut to the chase and went straight to the evaluation step there.
  6. ashbury
    I have this sneaking hunch I wouldn't have been fond of Kent had he played for anyone else, but as a Twin he's one of my favorites. And since I'm not originally from Minnesota it's not solely the hometown aspect. Some other players may have stood out a little more but Kent was heart and soul of this team.
  7. ashbury
    Rowson is a candidate to manage Boston, FWIW.
  8. ashbury
    This is such a good observation that it deserves boldface. So many statistical conclusions we wish to draw depend on independence within the data, and when that independence is lacking then the conclusions are suspect and must be re-evaluated. The link I offer there goes off into the weeds, but perhaps the opening sentence contains enough to give the gist: "...update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available".
  9. ashbury
    You're the Rosterman. You tell us!
  10. ashbury
    He'd be on the bubble for a 40-man spot on my team, and I don't have a clear enough picture of who the alternatives are (once the chaff is gone from this year's roster). He seems to be too good to just give away, and coming off a season of injury, it truly is a dilemma. First choice is to try to find a spot for him, and second choice is to try to include him in a trade.
  11. ashbury
    Well sure. But if you have a weather forecast to look at and you find it hard to argue against the prediction of rain, if you ignore it you will still wind up wet.
  12. ashbury
  13. ashbury
    This explains why Justin Turner was heard complaining to an umpire after a called third strike, "why, ye dadgum sidewinder, ye just bushwacked me outta a day's wages right there. I oughta swoggle your dadburn horn, is what I ought - then you'd be hornswoggled just like me." Scott Bush, CEO of SABR, could not be reached for comment.
  14. ashbury
    Polanco is here for his bat. Someone roughly as good with the bat, plus is actually a better than average defensive SS? Maybe the cost would be too high but he's not a player I would simply dismiss as an upgrade.
  15. ashbury
    When it's a slider, knowing exactly what's coming may mean to just lay off it.
  16. ashbury
    Absent injuries, Polanco's bat is a plus in the middle infield, but at SS his arm is not. I wouldn't supplant him with a glove-only guy, but a plus-glove attached to an okay bat is a way to improve the roster. Won't be a cheap acquisition but shouldn't break the bank either.
  17. ashbury
    Romo - no. Avila - no. Platoon Garver/Jeffers, since Jeffers seemed to have no problem with RHP (indeed his 2019 showed a reverse platoon split as well), and acquire someone's AAAA catcher who has 1 option year remaining, instead of spending on Avila. Adrianza - no. Marwin - no no no. Clippard - yes. May - yes. Hill - yes if the terms are similar to this year's, plus a bump for his demonstrating a successful recovery in 2020, but no commitment to 2022. Odo - no. Sadly. I like him. I keep trying to convince myself it can be yes, but I foresee him remaining fragile physically, and essentially a 4-inning pitcher, which makes it as much about the 40-man spot as the money. Cruz - yes if the cost is similar to 2020 and is a one-year guarantee only. More than that, no, and again sadly, because he was the right signing two years ago.
  18. ashbury
    For me, sometimes Sid was a must-read, sometimes a hate-read, but never a don't-bother-to-read. In sportswriting that amounts to a big success. End of an era.
  19. ashbury
    If the plan is AAAA catchers to back up the duo of Jeffers/Garver, better have several of them. AAAA usually implies "out of minor league options" - that's the way it gets learned he's better than AAA but not quite good enough for the majors. When you need to bring one up for a while (10-day injury perhaps) and then send him back down, if he's any good he won't pass through waivers - some other team with a temporary need will grab him. The only ones you'll be able to hang on to, in this scenario, are the ones no one else wants either. They can suffice during a short crunch, but can't really be your Plan B if you can help it.
  20. ashbury
    That's nothing. Zack Littell threw 117 pitches without hitting the catcher's mitt even once!
  21. ashbury
    All three of these pitchers passed through one or more other organizations after us before reaching the Rays. Anderson was a trade to the Marlins, Curtiss was traded to the Angels, and Slegers was the only one plucked via DFA/waivers (by the Pirates). It stings to not get the benefit after mostly developing them, but these other teams (plus the Phils on Curtiss) whiffed similarly and, unless it's a fluke, the Rays do indeed seem to have some sort of secret sauce.
  22. ashbury
    Analytically speaking this is quite a terrible article but my gut still tells me it's comedy gold.
  23. ashbury
    Pay a visit to https://www.baseballtradevalues.com and experiment with their trade simulator using Twins and Pirates as the teams. Musgrove is a high-value guy and Eddie Rosario just isn't. Would you consider a Kepler-for-Musgrove trade instead?
  24. ashbury
    Well played.
  25. ashbury
    The ability to go 4 strong innings could be the next "market inefficiency", at least if you pair up such pitchers in an effective way plus you have other starters who do give you 6+ on their good days. Of course you can't pay such a guy $17M. I'm more concerned about Odo being able to give you 30+ starts in a season anymore. Roster spots (active roster, or 40-man) are precious. Someone who may need to beg off at the last moment but not bad enough to put on the IL could end up not worth the trouble. Got a bad feeling about Jake in that regard. And I don't mean he's not a gamer, in fact I think he is.
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