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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    It seems to me maybe you actually don't.
  2. ashbury
    Well said. I feel like adding, the same "criticism" could be leveled against good ol' ERA - at the end of the inning, his ERA for the game is 0.00 just as if he had pitched 1-2-3. Different stats have different purposes, and one big divider is "descriptive" versus "predictive". Even though WPA is modern, for me it sits directly in the "descriptive" category that tries to tell you what happened, in the context of thousands of other games in history where a home team took a one-run lead into the top of the ninth. At the end of that adventure, Pagan collects his winning-probability-added, for getting that clutch final out (and the maybe-more-clutch popout after the string of foul balls). The ninth isn't easy, even if many of the top closers lead you to think so.
  3. ashbury
    Fair question. After pondering for all of ten seconds, I think think I would feel the same way, but would be too polite to post it. I've posted before that I think he's an average reliever at best, at this stage of his career. This game really defines him for me.
  4. ashbury
    I'll throw out an unpopular opinion, that after the leadoff double, Pagan really pitched. Strategically he didn't let the better hitters beat him, and went basically after the #8 and #9 guys when the guys before those didn't get themselves out. He's not good enough to blow them away, as witnessed by the sequence of foul balls, but he went with a plan. It was bend but not break territory, and of course it could have come out much differently, but I want to give Pagan credit. He didn't simply luck into the result he got. He worked hard and smart for it. He had just enough.
  5. ashbury
    "We tell the kids, 'Grandpa has his spells, and if he forgets to take his medications you don't know what he might say. Just smile and tell him you love him.' At least he's not telling them about those so-called astronaut moon landings 100 years ago or whenever."
  6. ashbury
    Dear Forum Friday; I have read Forum Friday for years and years and I have seen people write "I can't believe this happened to me" but I am writing to tell you a story that actually happened to me but I can't believe it happened to me. ...
  7. ashbury
    I'm not gonna judge any team, even one that I hate, on messages from That Guy On Twitter. There are much better reasons to hate the White Sox anyway.
  8. ashbury
    You're gonna make him blush.
  9. ashbury
    Yeesh. Another big arm that can't find the strike zone. It's the Twins' catnip, or maybe their kryptonite.
  10. ashbury
    I acknowledged at the outset that every bullpen gives up runs. I'm not holding them up to some unrealistic standard like a WHIP under 1. And even a good WHIP will be a blend of clean innings and some stinkers over the course of the long season. Someone can check my numbers, but starters' WHIP this year is 1.04. Relievers have 1.55. Normal fluctuation means that it's too soon to take seriously any individual pitcher's numbers (so I won't list the ones that for the moment are good, any more than I expect Duffey's 2.00 to remain that high), but overall, it's inescapable that our bullpen is currently giving us no peace.
  11. ashbury
    Keep in mind though, "I never said half the things I said" is another Yogi reference.
  12. ashbury
    Ha ha. Like it's an either-or proposition.
  13. ashbury
    The pitcher doesn't always do well. That is true.
  14. ashbury
  15. ashbury
    That's across all starts, isn't it? Some starts, the pitcher gets injured early and comes out. Gray the other day for instance. Some starts, the pitcher is doing badly and comes out after two or three or four innings. Paddack for instance. (We've actually been pretty free of such games.) Some starts, the pitcher is clearly gassed and comes out, as might be said of Archer yesterday or Bundy the day before. I wonder if you let out those games, what the average is when the pitcher is doing well? I think those are the cases people are questioning.
  16. ashbury
    I'm not as down on Pagan as Szymborski is, but the ceiling is effective middle innings reliever, I expect. He has the experience, and presumably the make up, to set up or close, but not the chops. There will be late inning disasters if he is overexposed.
  17. ashbury
    Socrates long ago perfected the art of asking questions and letting his students puzzle out each step of the syllogism themselves. This article follows in an honored tradition. Tomorrow: "Should Miguel Sano Shift to Center Field?"
  18. ashbury
    You.
  19. ashbury
    Redeploy Tommy, at the very least.
  20. ashbury
    Even the best bullpen gives up some runs. But now and then, elite arms do throw clean innings, i.e. start the inning, 3 batters faced, no runners. Put runners on, and over the long haul you won't dance out of trouble often enough. Here's my count of relevant innings so far in 2022 (no credit for partial innings): Duran: 6 chances, 2 clean innings Smith: 2 chances, 0 clean innings Thielbar: 4 chances, 0 clean innings Coulomb: 2 chances, 0 clean innings Duffey: 3 chances, 0 clean innings Pagan: 3 chances, 2 clean innings Romero: 3 chances, 0 clean innings Jax: 3 chances, 0 clean innings It's late, this was a very quick count and I could be missing a few. Individually, it's all Small Sample Size. Taken as a group, this bullpen is hittable, or else they walk batters. Two guys, Duran and Pagan, have so far shown that they can take charge in the late innings. Smith, maybe, but he's been given partial innings in the cases not mentioned that were clean. Again, I'm looking at baserunners, not actual runs scored, because when you put runners on there will be variability. It's the ability to keep the runners off that tracks, not the ability to somehow magically scatter those runners. Rocco doesn't have the horses, not at this time. It doesn't matter how you deploy your bullpen arms, when there are only two. If things change for the better, later on, that's the time I'll look at how he deploys the resources.
  21. ashbury
    "There is one word in baseball that says it all, and that one word is, 'You never know.'" - Joaquin Andujar
  22. ashbury
    Article GOOD.
  23. ashbury
    CJ is the same player he always has been. Coors elevates some players. Good for him, and I hope the Rockies fans are enjoying the experience. It would be interesting to find out what Sano would do in a couple of years in Colorado also. Looking at his career splits, he has never come to bat there. Looks like we don't find out this year either - the come to Minnesota for 3 games in June.
  24. ashbury
    As I said: permit me a bit of skepticism.
  25. ashbury
    I See What You Did There
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