Should give the player quite a Lyft. If Cinderella suddenly turns into a pumpkin, the team is saddled for five years with a payroll-crippling average annual expense of almost two millio-... uh, never mind. Looks like the Twins' analytics team likes him more than the average player rating outfit does, but assuming so, then this does look like a win-win contract. Dobnak's rep no doubt spelled out the scenarios, but even if the player likes to bet on himself, a hard-eyed look at his situation should include the view that if he encounters any bumps on the road he wouldn't get as many chances to redeem himself as a more highly touted player might. He may have settled a little cheaply, but he's locked in a good life outcome, so it makes sense from his side. And the Twins, being the larger partner in this deal, can afford to underwrite the risk, while potentially reaping some financial savings if he turns into a mid-rotation workhorse for several years; he doesn't even have to be a 50-50 shot at achieving this to make it a good bet for the team.