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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    In memory of Denard, the Span to Buxton?
  2. ashbury
    I don't know. The pressure of them having to go up against each other might be worse than the seventh game of a World Series, and not be indicative of anything.
  3. ashbury
    No. Not really. At least not if you accept the concept Bill James expressed many years ago, of each team having a reservoir of talent that rises and falls through the years. The amount of talent that can be used in a given year depends on where each player is on his career path. I think of it like a bell-shaped curve or an inverted parabola, though more flattened I suppose. Given the CBA, you get only a certain number of years at reasonable cost, and you have some control over which years those are. If you choose to start at age 18, you get a portion of the curve where the early years aren't worth very much at the major league level. If somehow you instead delay the start until age 35, you'd get the portion where the last years aren't worth very much. If you had perfect forecasting of a player's career, you could pick the window that maximized his value delivered. If you did this for every player in the system, you could pick those windows that maximize team performance over a period of years (with options to go for steady excellence over the years or try to pack the most value into certain years). For players with low ceilings, these decisions aren't make or break. For high-ceiling players, it matters. I'm not saying anything you don't understand and already believe, I'm sure. But it's an answer to why people aren't just being stubborn mules who would never bring a good player up if they were GM.
  4. ashbury
    It shows what he can do when he gets his pitch. That is a necessary ingredient for success at bat, and worth our being stoked about. Whether he can fare as well when he doesn't get his pitch as often, well, as you say, let's be real, and let's be patient if need be.
  5. ashbury
    Luke Out.
  6. ashbury
    Denard's Heirs
  7. ashbury
    Did you happen to keep a count of the ones they drafted in those rounds (or just in round 1) who didn't even make it that far?
  8. ashbury
    I think you mean "trouper". A trooper is the guy who'll come arrest Seth for the copyright violation. / which, I realize, is the gist of your joke
  9. ashbury
    Last year TwinsDaily introduced Adopt-a-Prospect, a feature I assume will carry over this year. Would there be any value in doing something similar for draft prospects? Each of us pick someone and keep tabs on them during the remainder of their college/HS seasons? Maybe it's too late this year, but something for next year.
  10. ashbury
    Hrbek feels like the right analogy to me. Both were in the Midwestern League at age 20. Kent cooled his heels for another year at high A before belatedly getting the call from the big club; the Twins were lucky he didn't get bored and decide to go into pro wrestling. Anyway, let Eddie get a year of seasoning in high A, then call him up.
  11. ashbury
    Starting tomorrow. First thing tomorrow, that's the ticket.
  12. ashbury
    Yes. It's pretty frustrating to go to the Yahoo baseball page, see the line score showing 5-3 in the fifth and click on that tantalizing Box Score link, and only get another edition of the line score. Are they in a rain delay? Looks like they've been in the fifth for a long while now. Or maybe I'm just impatient.
  13. ashbury
    If his upside is "closer" and he only achieves setup-man (think: Ron Davis for the Yankees, before the Peter Principle took effect), that will be a fine outcome. And I think scout Followell explicitly was talking about closing, although the actual use of the term in the article was a paraphrase and not in quotes. So that's all good. What I don't want is for expectations to get scaled back in March, and we keep him because his upside is only setup-man someday. Drafting a reliever in rule-5 is somewhat safe but also a low upside pick unless you have the discipline to not let it be. As with most transactions, it can't be judged for a year or two or three.
  14. ashbury
    I don't ignore it. His AAA numbers pre-surgery weren't all that good. He was young, and arguably his ligament was an issue before completely blowing out. But unless he totally stakes a claim to a rotation spot in spring training, I'm fine with letting him do some final polishing in Rochester. That also does the relationship with our farm team some good, an aspect that can not drive all decisions but also can not be ignored.
  15. ashbury
    There is a middle ground between firesale rebuilding and going all in for a current year. In the business world, companies more often go bankrupt not due to debt but due to cashflow, or so I've read. And the Twins aren't a charity of the Pohlad Foundation. You can't completely ditch 2013, lest you put yourself in a downward revenue cycle that is hard to break out of. So I like Terry Ryan's approach that essentially bifurcates between the 2015 team and the players who will bridge to that year. Correia and Willingham and Doumit having their contracts end in 2014 makes perfect sense, whether we agree or disagree that Correia himself makes sense.
  16. ashbury
    Pressly has to demonstrate he has upside beyond just a career middle reliever, because you can acquire those more easily than having to babysit a player before he's ready to contribute. He's tagged as a washout as a starter, so that means he needs to be able to close after a year or two of major league experience; I'm not sure an upside of setup man is enough. I think that's what the Twins have in mind - the quotes in the article speak of "late in the game" - but he still needs to show it in Florida, and that won't be easy for him.
  17. ashbury
    Basically echoing what others have said, the offensive bar for making my eyes pop is a lot lower for a centerfielder than for somebody on the corners. Span didn't have those numbers, but with 15-20 HR power he probably would have been around that threshold. Hicks could reach that, eventually.
  18. ashbury
    I assumed he was kidding. I didn't get whatever humor was intended, however.
  19. ashbury
    Benson is a wild-card who can move perceptions of the Twins upward if he breaks out this year.
  20. ashbury
    I hadn't seen that thread yet before posting. It must have looked like I was making a passive-aggressive response to it, but I actually wasn't; bad timing. With regard to the sub-thread about "language that a parent would not want their kid to see", if a kid is able to decode what I wrote then what I wrote is already pretty weak tea, considering. But, having raised three young'uns of our own, I'm hardly insensitive to the issue.
  21. ashbury
    Hey! My mother was a ******** (but not ****** and ******).
  22. ashbury
    Best way to improve the bench is a starting rotation that can go deep enough into games that a 13-man staff isn't required.
  23. ashbury
    One or two at most, then switch to beer.
  24. ashbury
    Well, it's never good stewardship by the front office to just fritter away *any* resources - too many up and down moves just for the sake of motion and soon you find that all the somewhat-useful pieces are claimed and everything that remains really are the dregs of the dregs. But, a part of me would welcome a DFA getting claimed - I am so tired of my team trying to scoop up a hidden gem in another team's discards, it would be nice to have some other team being the bottom-feeder on us for a change, and for there to be something actually worth scooping up that my team was too well-off to be able to conserve.
  25. ashbury
    FREE ANTHONY SLAMA. To whichever team takes him.
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