Basically you are asking for mind-reading. Here's my take, essentially what I have offered before. I believe one of Terry Ryan's stated core principles is that multi-year contracts for pitchers are usually a bad risk. Two years, tops, if the guy is really pretty good; anything longer requires it to be a certified ace like Johan where you accept that the risk in year two and beyond simply must be taken on. An exception (not seen in practice with the Twins, but which I believe he would make) might be made if you need to get one pitcher to put you over the top *this* year - but 2013 is not the year for doing that. He knew at the start that Grienke, probably Jackson and Sanchez, were simply not going to accept a two-year deal, and he was not prepared to go more. He was hoping some good pitchers at a lower tier from those would accept, particularly as one or two inevitably began to feel a bit of pressure as the off-season progressed and they still didn't have a deal with anyone; if this was the hope, it did not pan out. He signed Correia early, precisely to remove that kind of pressure from himself, ditto for the "low-risk high-reward" deals he loves such as (this year) Harden and Pelfrey, to avoid having to accept another pitcher's inflated demand as time grew short in January if Ryan didn't have anyone yet. He probably views Joe Saunders as less of an upgrade over Correia than do the sabrmetically-inclined with their fancy space-age tools like ERA+ and WAR, so he's not heartbroken that his lowball offer was rejected in favor of another team's one-year deal. I think that's all the tea-leaves I am prepared to try to read.