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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    I don't think anyone expects this. That's because we're seeing A Tale Of Two Seasons, written in ultra-small-sample-size: April 1-13: 46 PA, 2 H, 3 BB, 20 SO, 3 R April 15-23: 21 PA, 2 H, 8 BB, 2 SO, 5 R Potential explanation: word quickly got around the league, "don't give this guy *anything* good to hit, because he'll get himself out". Around April 14, coaching and Hicks had some kind of meeting of minds, and after that he stopped going after so much of the slop outside of the strike zone. You don't get hits on those kinds of pitches, so the results are not fully there yet. But when word gets around the league again, pitchers will decide a .476 OBP is not in their interest, particularly for a speedy baserunner, and better pitches to hit will be offered. It remains to be seen whether Hicks will capitalize.
  2. ashbury
    While I basically agree, I'll go back to the point in my original response, that maybe Joe being better than average at dealing with two strikes has its main payoff earlier in the count when he can afford to be selective on a nominally favorable count like 2-1.
  3. ashbury
    Well, Cody in his article said: ...he doesn't seem to have any trouble when he finds himself deep in a two strike hole. It almost seems as if Mauer becomes a better hitter as an at-bat is extended. My emphasis added.
  4. ashbury
    I probably should just go find the site with these breakdowns, but one thing that occurs to me is that lumping "two strikes" together may be what accounts for Joe's edge over other batters. Splitting stats further risks SSS of course; but if batters do worse on 0-2 than 1-2 (than 2-2, than 3-2), then *if* Joe is facing fewer of the highly unfavorable two-strike counts (due to better batting eye and selectivity, presumably) it would skew the totals to his advantage. Which of course is a good thing, but maybe at 0-2 specifically, he's no better relative to his norm than anyone else is.
  5. ashbury
    Maybe. Pitchers change their approach when they are gearing toward relieving versus starting. I took a look at Glen Perkins's innings split for 2009, his last year as a starter; his ERA was 11.34 in the first inning, 7.80 in the second, 5.40 in the third, and by the fourth (which he actually made it to, in most games) he settled down to a 2.40 ERA. Glen's worked out OK in relief. If instead the comp is Kevin Slowey, then it's pretty bleak sending him to the bullpen, I'll admit. Anyway, Pelf may be no good in the bullpen, but I wouldn't look at innings splits as a guide.
  6. ashbury
    This is not worth opening up a new thread, but I'll offer the news update (which I didn't see elsewhere here) that the Orioles brought up Burnett when they sent down Jake Arrieta.
  7. ashbury
    Easy peasy. It was the bee's knees, Louise.
  8. ashbury
    I wasn't deeply offended by that , but after you spoke up I looked closer and he had a triple and two homers among his hits. I guess you can infer some power from the 17 total bases, but it paints less of a picture, particularly when it's a speedy guy who could have amassed 8 doubles instead.
  9. ashbury
    I don't see Parmelee as a star. But if Davis and Loney end up as comps for him, he could be a useful trade chip if you show confidence in him, and next to nothing if you flush him now. As with Loney and probably Davis, you can't wait too long to flip him either. In this discussion I think first of trading Willingham or Morneau, but if someone offered enough for Parmelee based on his potential I could see trading him instead; all it takes is 1 team out of 29, even if most teams aren't enthused.
  10. ashbury
    Early season numbers aren't indicative. Instead, I look at yesterday's double-header. I believe Wilkin was the only position player who wasn't a starter in either game; the logical person he could have replaced was Parmelee, but evidently they are doing everything they can to give him and Dozier lots of playing time to determine how they fit in. Elsewhere on this subject I used the modifier "mild" for the logjam, but I didn't here and I could have - it's not a big problem, it's just that where there is unused resource on this team, it's found at the corner/1B group of players.
  11. ashbury
    His fastball is fast enough, but maybe he's still not 100% healthy and it reflects in command and/or the off-speed pitches being hittable? Maybe a stint on DL would be best for all concerned.
  12. ashbury
    Even if Arcia isn't good enough already to quite stay with the team, there's a mild logjam at the corner outfield positions. If Willingham could bring them a starting pitcher, the team might be better poised for a mild/premature playoff run with Wilkin in the outfield and whatever pitcher Willingham might fetch for the rotation.
  13. ashbury
    A trade of either Willingham or Morneau instantly eases the jogjam of the corner/1B positions. There's a lot to be said for developing Parmelee to his full potential, alongside of Arcia. I don't see a value in casting anything as Arcia versus Parmelee; to whatever extent they currently interfere with each other, I recommend patience for a few weeks or months.
  14. ashbury
    Yeah, you miss a little, you miss a lot.
  15. ashbury
    Well, that was a quiet ending.
  16. ashbury
    Sixteen hits for the Flounders tonight, and no one is hogging up the action particularly. Brantly's got 3, five other guys have 2.
  17. ashbury
    In other news... Benson went 0-for-6 in the loss at Syracuse. I intend to post only good news on his adopt-a-prospect page, so I have to say something here.
  18. ashbury
    Forget it, he's rolling.
  19. ashbury
    Clutch pitching by Pressly to get the DP.
  20. ashbury
    Well, we could be surviving these single-run innings, but that crooked number in the first is the killer at this point. Thanks, Pelf. If Gardy gives you another start, maybe I save the Ugly Girl avatar for you.
  21. ashbury
    Annnnd... the coach puts up *another* stop sign. Don't wanna get fined in the kangaroo court.
  22. ashbury
    +1, my brother. +1.
  23. ashbury
    Swarzak continues to seem like he's finally blossomed.
  24. ashbury
    When it comes to Butera, there are some here who would... no, I will not say it.
  25. ashbury
    I took a look at Doumit's split between catcher and DH. As a DH he's been below mediocre, BA of .238, OPS .638. But as catcher, well, maybe we should give that Butera fellow another look-see: BA .077, OPS .404. Fun with small-sample-size, I know.
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