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Kirby_waved_at_me

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Everything posted by Kirby_waved_at_me

  1. Kirby_waved_at_me
    I'm hoping the next David Price or Hamels or Bumgarner . . . I think they will want to try having him start some games instead of close them.
  2. Kirby_waved_at_me
    Yeah, if the Twins extend a QO to Pelfrey, he'd probably want to take it, right? It would depress his market in free agency, and he's probably not getting a better annual offer in the first place. He might be looking for a multi-year deal closer to $10 Mil. per season, assuming he stays on this course for the whole year (which would be quite impressive, come to think of it). I suppose Pelfrey could reject the QO in search of a longer deal for more total $$, but less per year than the QO would be. Either way, I think getting Vargas back up is a good thing for the Twins, Sending Santana down is a good thing for the Twins, and hopefully there will be some movement in the bullpen in the next week as well. With Vargas up and Santana in AAA, my guess is that Molitor would really appreciate another bench player to come up in case they need another defender somewhere. Escobar is going to be busy at SS, and Nuñez is going to be backing up the infielders (and shouldn't be in the OF anyway), so Molly might ask for an outfielder... What's the latest on Schafer? Any news?
  3. Kirby_waved_at_me
    I could be completely wrong about this, but I got the sense that Vargas was the one to get sent down instead of Santana last time because they wanted to add a pitcher but wanted to give Santana every opportunity to turn things around. My opinion is that it was less about Vargas playing poorly (he was on the upswing in the days leading up to his demotion), and more about the staff wanting to shuffle the deck chairs a different way. I think Santana was destined to be sent down at some point this season unless he found his swing. Vargas didn't learn a new skill in his short AAA stint, but I think the demotion and the time away from the MLB pressure may have reminded him how he got the call up in the first place.
  4. Kirby_waved_at_me
    When Vargas sits around the infield.... I am very happy that he's back. Vargas is one of my favorites.
  5. Kirby_waved_at_me
    I think the other reason that Arcia was not the one called up has to do with when he was optioned. I think he still has another series or two before his 10 days minimum are up. That clock started just last week, yes? His rehab assignment did not count towards the 10 days.
  6. Kirby_waved_at_me
    Kennys is back! Kennys Vargas is back! I am hoping to get to at least two of these three games, I just have to figure out $$ and time.
  7. Kirby_waved_at_me
    well. You win some, you lose some.
  8. Kirby_waved_at_me
    Gladden says he started in then tried to re-adjust.
  9. Kirby_waved_at_me
    harrumph.
  10. Kirby_waved_at_me
    They want no part of Mauer Power
  11. Kirby_waved_at_me
    geez, everybody just wants to give the Twins extra bases (not that I'm complaining).
  12. Kirby_waved_at_me
    never in doubt.
  13. Kirby_waved_at_me
    Ultimately, I think it's called luck until there's data to define the successful situation and then that data is being used in the game to create a successful outcome. For example, if a batter hits a line drive and a fielder is standing right there to get it, we might call that lucky. If that line drive was hit into an extreme shift, then it's considered to be sound strategy to move the fielders into the place the batter's most likely to hit the ball. The Sox error on the Mauer bunt was luck. If Molitor knew that Sandoval is more likely to drop the ball on a throw from the catcher at that time of day, and then called for the bunt to try to force an error, well, that's crazy, but if somehow that was supported by data, it wouldn't be luck so much as a strategy. Molitor spoke about the bunt after the game and sounded almost upset about the outcome. It was not a good bunt by Mauer, so he probably wanted his players to execute the play. Molitor did call for the sacrifice, he wanted to get the guys in a position to score. It worked out, and the miscue seemed to breed more miscues. Again, not actually related events, but the story you tell your kids makes the fish get bigger every year. The Twins are lucky because they can't explain how they are doing it, and it is not a repeatable strategy that is making them successful. If they could figure out how they could get Santana to hit, or to incorporate the trio (Arcia, Vargas, Pinto) back into the middle of the lineup without sacrificing too much on defense, I think they could flip the switch from lucky to good.
  14. Kirby_waved_at_me
    Luck and we "play the game the right way"
  15. Kirby_waved_at_me
    The funny thing about this conversation is that I think we agree.
  16. Kirby_waved_at_me
    I don't think it is all luck, but I don't think the success of the team is all skill, or "grit", or whatever nonsense intangible measurement (Puntos?) that old-school baseball guys want to use, either. My whole point in the posts I've made in the thread is that it is a combination of stats, analysis and outcomes/events. There is luck involved, but I think you can only be so lucky before there has to be something else going on.... The terrible bunt by Mauer yesterday that resulted in a run and a long rally instead of a double play was a lucky break, but it also probably caught the Sox by surprise. The Twins put on a play to force the Red Sox to execute. The Red Sox failed to execute, so they lost. Just because the analysis and conventional wisdom is that play should be a double play doesn't mean the Red Sox get a do-over. If that were case, I'd want all those outs that our infielders in the outfield "should have" caught last year. Yes, the Twins have been very lucky this year... all I'm saying is that luck is (in part) a product of forcing the issue and not taking anything for granted.
  17. Kirby_waved_at_me
    I would argue that Terry Ryan does have a reason / incentive to say what he said - though I think Dave St. Peter would have more incentive to say it, since he's the one trying to sell tickets. Ryan takes criticism from the media personally, at least, he talks like he does... This is a team that he (along with the scouts and evaluators that work with him) built and the light at the end of the long, dark tunnel that Ryan has been promising for years is starting to appear. He wants to be able to say that his efforts are bearing fruit. Could he be more tactful about it? Yes. I agree with Baumann's article that the Twins early success is based on generally unsustainable situational hitting and other factors that have swayed in their favor. I also think that Terry Ryan's point, while being a little unfair/rude to Baumann's article, is a valid point in general. Stats and Analysis are important but do not tell the whole story. If anything, the Baumann article makes me want to watch more Twins games, because they are defying the expected outcomes; something unique is happening. Is it really just pure luck?
  18. Kirby_waved_at_me
    Terry Ryan was saying he wouldn't trust a scouting report from a guy that only read the stat line. He's saying the same thing about Baumann. He trusts his evaluator's reports because they've seen the player. His decisions as GM are based on reports from people that have seen the player play and have done their statistical homework. He does some scouting too, but there's only so many places one guy can be. His argument is that he trusts his scouts to help him make decisions, and he doesn't trust the opinion of a writer that has only done half the job that a scout does. He's saying Baumann's article is lazy scouting. Not saying I agree with Ryan 100%, but I don't think he's contradicting himself at all. The Twins are benefiting from mistakes by the opposing teams, and so to me the question becomes, how much of the Twins actions (aggressive base running, good fielding, timely hitting) are forcing mistakes, and how much of it is just luck? That question something that could be explored by watching the games in person, or on tv (not just the highlights, the whole game)... How long can a team be lucky before they are actually good?
  19. Kirby_waved_at_me
    I generally don't start watching the scoreboards closely until Father's Day...
  20. Kirby_waved_at_me
    I feel like last year was even more impressive / special now that Hughes is pitching like his regular self. I expect that he will make some adjustments and find a middle ground that is a bit better than he's been this year, though not quite the masterful performance of last year.
  21. Kirby_waved_at_me
    I'd be open to having Rick Anderson come back in a "only speaks to Phil Hughes and no other pitcher" role.
  22. Kirby_waved_at_me
    When did the Twins acquire the Rally Monkey? Was he part of the Brian Fuentes trade?
  23. Kirby_waved_at_me
    It won't take much for Arcia to get recalled, the Twins need his bat in the lineup. He just happens to be playing terribly right now, and that is not helpful to the Twins or to himself.
  24. Kirby_waved_at_me
    hard to say - Rochester has been rained out several games in a row - no at bats to be had for Pinto, Arcia, or Vargas to see if they are ready to return.
  25. Kirby_waved_at_me
    I think if the Twins manage to stay in the playoff race up to the deadline, there's no reason they should be thinking about 2016. The nature of the beast is that you only get so many chances to make the playoffs, and once you're in, anything can happen (see the 2014 Royals, The W.S. Winning White Sox, the 87 Twins... etc, etc.). It would be a disappointment for the Twins to trade away MLB assets this season for the possibility of being in playoff contention in 2016. That's not to say I think the Twins should be shopping their blue chippers to get this year's Matt Capps - but something akin to the Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty deal would be nice. This year that might be a veteran Short Stop, or a bullpen arm, or a DH -- who knows? Something on a smaller scale that fills a need without giving up too much. All of this is assuming of course that the Twins are still playing well in July (and June for that matter).
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